One of the absolute best values of the 2015 fantasy season, Blake
Bortles showed obvious progress in his second year at the helm
of the offense. His season was so good, narrowly finishing behind
Tom Brady as fantasy’s third best QB, that it is difficult expecting
more improvement in 2016. In fact, regression seems almost inevitable
when looking more closely at the situations that paved the way
for Bortles to reach such lofty totals. After a year that saw
the offense toss up 40 or more passes six times and its quarterback
sacked a league leading 51 times, the team went out and bolstered
the rushing game. Look for OC Greg Olsen to mix high-percentage
passing routes with a more effective play-action scheme to leverage
Allen Robinson’s play-making ability down field. Any decrease
in passing attempts will likely translate into a few less points
this year but he the team should be more effective at moving the
ball down field and creating scoring chances. He should be a solid
QB1, but projecting another top five fantasy quarterback season
from Bortles would be a bold move for 2016.
Chad Henne didn’t hesitate to resign with the team after
not playing a single down in 2015. At this point in his career
he is more of a mentor than a true backup quarterback. Brandon
Allen was drafted out of Arkansas and could develop into a worthwhile
backup down the road.
RB T.J.
Yeldon (2015 RB Rank – No.28, 10.0 FPts/G)
The Jaguars believed T.J. Yeldon could finally give the team
a running back capable of being a three-down workhorse after years
of lackluster performances. Backing up their opinion, Yeldon averaged
15.2 carries and 3.8 targets per game per game as a rookie last
season. If he hadn’t missed four games due groin and knee injuries
he would have finished as a low-end RB2 without scoring many touchdowns.
Also helping Yeldon’s cause was the team’s flourishing passing
attack. In 2014, the Jags averaged 16.9 first downs per game (29th
in the NFL). That number improved to 19.6 in 2015 (20th) and another
increase is likely as the offense’s young core continues to improve.
The more first downs the team can create, the more opportunities
Yeldon will have to produce for his fantasy owners. Nonetheless,
the team opted to bulk up its rushing game by signing Chris Ivory
to five-year deal. It’s hard to imagine the team pushing Yeldon
out of a starting role after only one season. However, paying
over six million dollars a year for a backup running back also
seems out of place. Yeldon’s touchdown upside is absolutely crushed
with Ivory on the roster, but he showed last season he doesn’t
need to score to be an effective RB3 on weekly basis. If the two
split carries, Yeldon will still rack up enough touches on passing
downs and have a better shot at staying healthy for a full year
to be a capable RB3 in PPR formats and FLEX option in most standard
leagues. Nevertheless, this battle won’t be settled until late
in training camp which could easily change the forecast for each
player. As an early eighth rounder in recent twelve-team drafts,
Yeldon is going two rounds later than Ivory so the risk is certainly
minimal for a guy who averaged over four yards per carry in his
first year as a pro.
Despite Blake Bortles’ ability to keep the team in games
through the air last season, HC Gus Bradley knows a strong ground
game is needed to have sustained success over the duration of
a full NFL season. Establishing stronger depth at the running
back position was an obvious area for upgrade this off season
and the team responded by inking the 28 year-old former Jet and
Saint Chris Ivory to a multi-year deal that covers what should
be Ivory’s prime years. The team was pleased with T.J. Yeldon’s
production in 2015 so the size of Ivory’s role within the
offense remains uncertain at the moment. His physical style provides
more of a threat in short yardage and red zone packages. Those
figuring on Ivory taking over as the predominant starter for touches
may want to pull the reigns a bit. Until 2015, Ivory had never
eclipsed the 200-carry mark. Additionally, over the final seven
weeks of last year’s regular season, Ivory only scored one
touchdown while seeing over 15 touches just twice. If given the
chance to ride the hot hand, Ivory will probably post a few big
games but his overall value will be tied to whether he can consistently
find the end zone.
After failing to inspire much confidence as a leading backup
running back, Robinson will revert to being a versatile threat
with only a minor role in the offense. He should be in the mix
to handle kick return duties but doesn’t bring enough upside
to warrant a look unless injuries open the door for more opportunity.
Beyond Robinson, the team doesn’t have much to offer fantasy
owners. Jonas Gray and Corey Grant are squarely on the roster
bubble entering training camp.
Arguably the single most important player on Jacksonville’s offense,
Allen Robinson emerged as the “go to guy” whenever Jacksonville
needed a big play. With nice size and speed, Robinson has all
the skills necessary to sustain his elite production into 2016
and beyond. As the lead man for the Jags passing attack, he should
be primed for another big year but his touchdown total may suffer
do to the addition of RB Chris Ivory and better play from TE Julius
Thomas. Even with a little regression Robinson’s expected to continue
to be one of the most consistent week-to-week wideouts across
the league. Last season, the former Nittany Lion notched six 100-receiving-yard
games and failed to produce double-digit fantasy points only four
times. A minor hamstring injury popped up early this preseason
so keep an eye out for any lingering effects once training camp
begins. A lack of track record for him and his quarterback will
make it tough for fantasy owners to make him a first rounder but
he is fair game after the turn.
WR Allen
Hurns (2015 WR Rank – No.14, 10.9 FPts/G)
The Jags found a quality WR2 to play alongside budding superstar
Allen Robinson and locked him into a four-year contract extension
this off season. Not many players can turn 105 target seasons
into double digit touchdowns but that is exactly what Allen Hurns
was able to do in 2015. It would be a minor miracle if Hurns increases
his role in an offense that is gearing up to run the ball more
this season. Additionally, as a player who went undrafted just
two years ago, Hurns may quickly become the third or fourth option
in the passing game depending on how the team uses TE Julius Thomas
and its running backs on third downs. Early ADP projections have
been slow to digest the flukiness of his prior year stats, thus
making him a reach as a fifth round selection in standard twelve-team
formats.
WR Marqise
Lee (2015 WR Rank – No.110, 3.2 FPts/G)
Marqise Lee remains higher on talent than production. Injuries
have prevented the former second round pick out of Southern Cal
from reaching his potential but all indications are that he is
fully healthy heading into training camp. He won’t unseat
Hurns or Robinson but could become a waiver wire gem if one of
the starters missed a significant amount of time. Sophomore Rashad
Greene and a band of other relative unknowns will battle for a
roster spot or two behind the starters.
Julius Thomas never got going last year after a broken hand during
the preseason play cost him the first four weeks of the regular
season. He was still able to collect 80 targets on the year and
had a better second half of the season. QB Blake Bortles met with
Thomas over the off-season to try and figure out a way to get
on the same page with his huge six-foot five-inch tight end. The
injury risk and a deep tight end pool will still push Thomas towards
the third wave of tight ends selected on draft day. Nonetheless,
his prowess near the goal combined with a proactive approach by
his quarterback to get him involved will have plenty of fantasy
owners giving him a mulligan for a dismal 2015 campaign. Early
reports form OTAs have already started to refuel the hype surrounding
him and a healthy preseason should result in his ADP rising over
the next few weeks. Marcedes Lewis re-upped with the team and
will serve as Thomas’ backup. Lewis’ fantasy value
is dormant after failing to catch at least 20 passes in each of
the past two years.
