Andrew Luck had a poor fantasy showing in 2015 due to injuries
and an underperforming team. Nonetheless, the team is confident
he can lead them to a championship and inked him to the largest
deal in the history of one of the wealthiest sports on the globe.
But the question remains, can Indy’s face of the franchise
return to the top of the quarterback rankings in 2016? In a relative
down year, Luck’s 24.8 fantasy points-per-game paced him
alongside Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer as a clear cut top
ten performer. Those choosing to support a full rebound from Luck
this year, will see an offense that isn’t fit to run the
ball 30 times a game and quality options in the passing game.
The interior line was reinforced when the team used its first
round selection on the best center in the draft, Ryan Kelly. Simply
put, the Colts will lean heavily on their quarterback’s
arm and legs to put points on the board.
On the outside, T.Y. Hilton leads a receiving corps that is young
and emerging as one of the most explosive and dangerous in the
league. The largest knock on Luck from a fantasy perspective is
simply the influx of other talented quarterbacks to provide elite
production. The evolution of the passing game within today’s NFL
has narrowed the gap between signal callers in the top three and
those just outside of the top ten. The talent, scheme and weapons
surrounding him give Luck a much higher ceiling than most fourth
round draft picks so expect his ADP to rise slightly throughout
the preseason.
RB Frank
Gore (2015 RB Rank – No. 11, 10.3 FPts/G)
Fantasy football is all about opportunity and Colts running back
Frank Gore has a clearer path than many other running backs around
the league. Time isn’t on his side as he embarks on his twelfth
year in the league at age 33 but he is easily the best rushing
option on the team, including inside the red zone. The team was
successful in keeping him effective and upright a year ago and
optimistic owners should envision another 1,000 yards of total
offense this season. The lack of quality options behind the veteran
breathes more life into Gore’s fantasy appeal but also gives the
team more reason to be conservative with his usage. As the offense
regains more consistency with a healthier Andrew Luck under center,
Gore’s scoring chances figure to improve to the point where he
can finish as a mid-to-low-end RB2 in most formats. Still, the
negative attributes associated with any veteran running back with
over 2,000 NFL carries are present. A decline in his yards per
carry (3.7 ypc) in 2015 wasn’t helped by an underperforming offensive
line but it also remains consistent with the typical career arc
of running backs. Gore isn’t likely to face-plant in 2016, but
expecting another 250-carry season seems rather unlikely as well.
Gore will be a boring pick that has a chance to be undervalued
in drafts so look to gobble him up as a RB3 with low-end RB2 potential.
A true lotto ticket for the 2016 fantasy season, Robert Turbin
joins a Colts offense looking for redemption. Turbin was never
able to distinguish himself as more than a backup while with Seattle
and Dallas but he has another opportunity with Indianapolis, now
entering his prime years. He has been productive in limited roles
prior to joining the Colts and more of the same at the outset
of the 2016 campaign is expected. Nevertheless, the team knows
it cannot continue to lean so heavily on Frank Gore so Turbin
will be given a good shot to earn more carries or even series
or two each game. He is a moderate level handcuff and end game
option for Gore owners assuming he holds off the limited competition
during training camp.
Jordan Todman gives the team a little more youthfulness for no
huddle situations and passing downs but remains a long shot to
provide any substantial fantasy contributions in 2016. Nevertheless
his experience over the other options will likely give him the
upper hand when cuts are made. Tyler Varga is an undrafted free
agent holdover from 2015 that could sneak onto the roster with
a quality showing during training camp. The dark horse to keep
an eye on in the backup running back battle is Josh Ferguson,
an undrafted free agent out of Illinois. He is a quick, open space
runner in the mold of a Tavon Austin or Darren Sproles that would
add another dynamic to the offense if he makes the cut.
Coming off three straight seasons accruing over 1,000 yards receiving,
T.Y. Hilton provides Andrew Luck with one of the best all-around
wideouts in the league. He remains one of the more efficient pass
catchers, piling up stats without elite target totals. The time
missed by Luck hurt Hilton’s overall production in 2015 but he
shouldn’t have any trouble returning quality WR1 value in 2016.
He has never caught more than seven touchdowns so many fantasy
managers will want to push him outside of their top 15 fantasy
wide receivers. However, Hilton’s receiving brethren are more
explosive than ever before. Many receivers would see this as a
slight decrease to their value, but having dynamic deep threats
like Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett around will make it even tougher
for defenses to flank the precise route running of Hilton. Reports
regarding Hilton’s motivation for the upcoming season from the
team’s OTAs have been glowing. If you believe that Andrew Luck
is healthy and ready to regain his 2014 that saw him notch 40
passing touchdowns, you should also be buying into his favorite
target where he is currently a small bargain as the 17th WR off
the board.
Maturity not talent has been the barrier to Donte Moncrief’s
development as a pro. After seeing his role increase in each of
his first two years in the NFL, Moncrief is expected to enter
the year as the starter opposite T.Y. Hilton. His lightning fast
start to the 2015 season included five touchdowns in seven games
and put the league and Andre Johnson on notice. He will enter
training camp recovering from surgery to alleviate turf toe but
is already running and making cuts as he heads into training camp.
Assuming he continues to recover without any setbacks and shows
a nice chemistry with his quarterback, there isn’t any reason
that Moncrief can’t earn a profit as a middle of the draft
investment that performs like a top 50 player more often than
not.
Phillip Dorsett was not able to provide much help to the Colts
or fantasy owners in his rookie season but that should change
in 2016. He is third in the pecking order of receivers and has
plenty of development ahead of him as a pro before even hoping
to become a weekly fantasy starter. Nonetheless, he has “early
days of Mike Wallace” speed that the Colts will want to
get onto the field this season. Indy figures to feature more three
receiver formations this year which should afford Dorsett just
enough targets to be considered as a high risk, high reward flex
option in deeper formats.
TE Dwayne
Allen (2015 TE Rank – No. 60, 1.4 FPts/G)
Indianapolis resigned Dwayne Allen and let Coby Fleener leave
via free agency. The two moves leave the door wide open for the
Colts offense to recapture the days when the team consistently
produced one of fantasy’s top tight ends. In order for the
stars to align, Allen must hope the extra stretching he has incorporated
into his off-season workouts will keep him healthy. Secondly,
fantasy owners will need to track his target count closely. The
lack of competition in what should be a very good passing game
should yield career best target numbers for Allen (assuming a
healthy season). The Colts targeted their TEs 128 times in 2015
and 168 times in 2014 yielding 82 and 98 catches respectively.
If the former Clemson Tiger can score enough (6-8 TDs) he will
provide TE1 numbers for next to nothing on draft day. Jack Doyle
is a career backup type that could see an expanded role at some
point considering Allen’s injury history.
