9/1/09
This article focuses on the impact the scoring system can have on
the value of wide receivers in fantasy football. In particular,
we will focus on two types of scoring systems: ones that award points
for receptions (PPR) and ones that don’t (Non-PPR).
In the past few articles we have dug
into the historical consistency of top fantasy players by position.
In the wide receiver article
we focused on a points-per-reception scoring format, where each
reception is worth 0.5 points. This article provides corresponding
stats for a non-PPR league then highlights receivers whose value
is more dependent on a scoring system than most of their peers.
Just the Facts
Every receivers fantasy points are higher in a PPR format than
in a corresponding non-PPR format. Some players see their points
increase significantly more than others. It doesn’t take
a rocket scientist to figure out what it takes for this to happen:
catching a lot of passes. Players who catch fewer passes than
their peers tend to perform better in a non-PPR format.
If you’ve followed any of my past few articles, you’ve
gotten familiar with some statistics we’ve used to dig into
historical performance. Let’s start by refreshing these
stats for WR’s in a non-PPR scoring format. A more
detailed discussion on what these stats mean and how to use
them is available in prior articles.
We use our usual WR scoring system with one adjustment –
we no longer award any points for each reception. That is, a reception
is worth 0 fantasy points (instead of 0.5 points in a PPR). This
table shows the scoring system we use.
Non-PPR Scoring |
PPR |
Yds |
TDs |
Fumles Lost |
0 |
0.1 |
6 |
-2 |
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The number of games in the sample size for each player is unchanged,
but it is included again below:
Average fantasy points scored per game in the sample in the non-PPR
format are shown below:
Coefficient of variation of per-game scoring for each player in
the non-PPR format is shown below:
Distribution of scoring by player in non-PPR league:.
Rankings of each point in the distribution, sorted by median:
The focus of this article is identifying players whose value is
highly dependent on a scoring system. With that in mind, we will
move onto focusing on the differences between the stats in the two
scoring systems. Let’s sort the players by their change
in ranking in moving from the non-PPR format to the PPR format.
The -8 for Wes Welker indicates that he is ranked 8 spots better
in PPR than in non-PPR. To nobody’s surprise he’s
worth more in a PPR format historically. The 5 for Santonio Holmes
indicates that he is ranked 5 spots worse in PPR than in non-PPR.
His worth is less in a PPR format historically.
- Wes Welker, Derrick Mason, and Donald Driver are much more
valuable in a PPR scoring format than a non-PPR format. This
indicates they catch a lot more passes than their peers with
a similar amount of receiving yards and touchdowns. A significant
portion of their value comes from frequent targets that don’t
amount to a lot of yards or touchdowns.
- Braylon Edwards, Lee Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Santonio
Holmes are less valuable in a PPR scoring format than a non-PPR
format. This indicates they catch fewer passes than their peers
with a similar amount of receiving yards and touchdowns. A lot
of their value comes from games where they have only a couple
receptions, but they “make them count”.
In past articles we have spent a fair amount of time discussing
not only the average points per game, but also the distribution
of the scores that lead to those averages. Let’s look at
the change in rankings by percentile from moving from non-PPR
to PPR format.
The -11 for the Median of Eddie Royal indicates the ranking of
his median score among all receivers is 11 spots better in a PPR
format than a non-PPR. The 9 for the median of Plaxico Burress
indicates the ranking of his median score among all receivers
is 9 sports worse in a PPR format than a non-PPR league.
- More players that thrive in a PPR system stand out here.
Eddie
Royal, Bobby
Engram, Laveranues
Coles, and Jerricho
Cotchery are the 4 with the biggest improvement in their
median score.
- Wes
Welker is an interesting case here. At first glance this
chart might appear to indicate Wes Welker thrives in a non-PPR
format, based on the change in his median score. But a careful
look at his stats indicates that his ranking at almost all percentiles
is significantly improved in the PPR format. We happen to rank
by the median here, but it is clear that Wes Welker is helped
in a PPR format – even though his median score happens to rank
worse in the PPR format. This emphasizes the fact that these
stats require some care in interpretation.
- Plaxico
Burress, Justin
Gage, Roy
Williams, Santana
Moss, and Lee
Evans stand out here as having a worse median rank in a
PPR system than in a non-PPR. If you look at the distribution
of their scores as a whole, Justin Gage is hurt the most across
the board at most percentiles by moving to a PPR format.
What About This Year?
- Santonio Holmes has a history of getting less targets
than his peers but doing a lot with the few targets he gets. This
drives his having higher value in non-PPR leagues. I anticipate
that will change this year, and that Santonio Holmes will start
getting more targets. This is driven in part by the aging of Hines
Ward and also by the departure of Nate Washington. With that in
mind, I think he will move from being a receiver who performs
much better in a non-PPR format to a receiver who performs similar
in both.
- Wes Welker has historically gotten a lot of targets
as Tom Brady’s “dump-off” option in the slot.
I see no reason to expect that will change drastically this year.
The addition of Joey Galloway could cut into his targets a bit,
but I anticipate Wes Welker will continue to be significantly
more valuable in a PPR format.
- Derrick Mason has historically racked up a lot of short
catches, which have driven his higher value in PPR leagues. He’s
had some odd pre-season activity (which included a brief retirement),
and the receivers behind him have some injury issues. But I think
he will continue to be more valuable in PPR leagues than non-PPR,
as I don’t see a drastic change in his role this year.
- Vincent Jackson has historically performed better in
non-PPR leagues than PPR leagues. I see an increase in his targets
this season as his role in the Chargers receiving corps expands,
and I see him performing similarly in PPR and non-PPR leagues.
- Laveranues
Coles has historically performed similarly in both PPR and
non-PPR leagues. I see him emerging as a receiver that performs
better in PPR leagues than non-PPR leagues in his new role with
the Bengals. I see him being the target of a lot of short passes
from Carson
Palmer this year, as he tries to fill part of the void T.J.
Houshmandzadeh left.
Conclusion
The scoring system of your league matters. When choosing players
in a draft it’s important to be aware of the scoring system.
Scoring systems have two common structures – one awards
points for receptions and one doesn’t. What this article
investigated was WR consistency in non-PPR leagues and receivers
whose value is highly dependent on the scoring structure.
For most receivers, it’s doesn’t make a big difference
either way. We highlighted some receivers who perform much better
historically in a PPR format (like Wes Welker and Derrick Mason).
We also highlighted some who perform better historically in a
non-PPR (like Vincent Jackson and Santonio Holmes).
In addition to this, we have highlighted some changes we anticipate
this year with respect to specific players and their relative
value in PPR vs. non-PPR leagues in the future.
If you are in a few leagues and one is PPR and one is not, be
sure to adjust your WR rankings accordingly for your draft. Hopefully
this article gives you some perspective that will help with those
adjustments.
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