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The PPR Factor
9/1/09

This article focuses on the impact the scoring system can have on the value of wide receivers in fantasy football. In particular, we will focus on two types of scoring systems: ones that award points for receptions (PPR) and ones that don’t (Non-PPR).

In the past few articles we have dug into the historical consistency of top fantasy players by position. In the wide receiver article we focused on a points-per-reception scoring format, where each reception is worth 0.5 points. This article provides corresponding stats for a non-PPR league then highlights receivers whose value is more dependent on a scoring system than most of their peers.

Just the Facts

Every receivers fantasy points are higher in a PPR format than in a corresponding non-PPR format. Some players see their points increase significantly more than others. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what it takes for this to happen: catching a lot of passes. Players who catch fewer passes than their peers tend to perform better in a non-PPR format.

If you’ve followed any of my past few articles, you’ve gotten familiar with some statistics we’ve used to dig into historical performance. Let’s start by refreshing these stats for WR’s in a non-PPR scoring format. A more detailed discussion on what these stats mean and how to use them is available in prior articles.

We use our usual WR scoring system with one adjustment – we no longer award any points for each reception. That is, a reception is worth 0 fantasy points (instead of 0.5 points in a PPR). This table shows the scoring system we use.

 Non-PPR Scoring
PPR Yds TDs Fumles Lost
0 0.1 6 -2

The number of games in the sample size for each player is unchanged, but it is included again below:


 Sample Of WRs
Player Sampe Size (Games)
Andre Johnson 46
Anquan Boldin 51
Anthony Gonzalez 23
Antonio Bryant 57
Bernard Berrian 41
Bobby Engram 43
Brandon Marshall 36
Braylon Edwards 55
Calvin Johnson 29
Chad Ochocinco 58
Derrick Mason 59
DeSean Jackson 15
Devin Hester 12
Domenik Hixon 14
Donald Driver 60
Donnie Avery 11
Dwayne Bowe 29
Eddie Royal 14
Greg Jennings 41
Hines Ward 55
Isaac Bruce 51
Jerricho Cotchery 49
Justin Gage 22
Kevin Walter 27
Larry Fitzgerald 56
Laveranues Coles 56
Lee Evans 59
Marques Colston 36
Plaxico Burress 53
Randy Moss 56
Reggie Wayne 60
Roddy White 48
Roy Williams 51
Santana Moss 55
Santonio Holmes 36
Steve Breaston 12
Steve Smith 55
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 55
Ted Ginn 13
Terrell Owens 52
Torry Holt 58
Vincent Jackson 16
Wes Welker 45

Average fantasy points scored per game in the sample in the non-PPR format are shown below:

 Wide Receivers: Non-PPR - FPts / Game
Rank Player FPts/G
1 Terrell Owens 12.9
2 Steve Smith 12.0
3 Anquan Boldin 11.9
4 Larry Fitzgerald 11.9
5 Andre Johnson 11.2
6 Marques Colston 11.2
7 Randy Moss 11.2
8 Reggie Wayne 11.0
9 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 10.5
10 Chad Ochocinco 10.5
11 Greg Jennings 10.2
12 Torry Holt 10.1
13 Plaxico Burress 9.8
14 Hines Ward 9.8
15 Brandon Marshall 9.6
16 Vincent Jackson 9.4
17 Calvin Johnson 9.4
18 Braylon Edwards 9.1
19 Santana Moss 9.1
20 Dwayne Bowe 9.0
21 Donald Driver 9.0
22 Kevin Walter 8.7
23 Eddie Royal 8.5
24 Bernard Berrian 8.4
25 Lee Evans 8.4
26 Laveranues Coles 8.3
27 Roy Williams 8.2
28 Santonio Holmes 8.1
29 Steve Breaston 8.0
30 Isaac Bruce 8.0
31 Roddy White 7.9
32 Wes Welker 7.9
33 Antonio Bryant 7.9
34 Justin Gage 7.8
35 Derrick Mason 7.7
36 Jerricho Cotchery 7.7
37 Donnie Avery 7.1
38 Bobby Engram 7.0
39 DeSean Jackson 6.8
40 Anthony Gonzalez 6.7
41 Devin Hester 5.9
42 Ted Ginn Jr. 5.8
43 Domenik Hixon 5.0

Coefficient of variation of per-game scoring for each player in the non-PPR format is shown below:

 Coefficient of Variation
Rank Player CV
1 Anthony Gonzalez .98
2 Lee Evans .90
3 Donnie Avery .90
4 Santana Moss .90
5 Domenik Hixon .87
6 Antonio Bryant .87
7 Ted Ginn Jr. .83
8 Roy Williams .81
9 Eddie Royal .81
10 Laveranues Coles .81
11 Chad Ochocinco .80
12 Roddy White .79
13 Justin Gage .78
14 Braylon Edwards .75
15 Randy Moss .75
16 Hines Ward .72
17 Kevin Walter .71
18 Plaxico Burress .70
19 Steve Smith .70
20 Wes Welker .69
21 Jerricho Cotchery .68
22 Santonio Holmes .66
23 Devin Hester .66
24 Bernard Berrian .66
25 Isaac Bruce .64
26 Torry Holt .64
27 Terrell Owens .63
28 Calvin Johnson .63
29 Anquan Boldin .63
30 Donald Driver .61
31 Marques Colston .61
32 Greg Jennings .60
33 DeSean Jackson .60
34 Derrick Mason .59
35 Bobby Engram .59
36 T.J. Houshmandzadeh .59
37 Brandon Marshall .59
38 Steve Breaston .58
39 Andre Johnson .58
40 Vincent Jackson .57
41 Reggie Wayne .55
42 Dwayne Bowe .48
43 Larry Fitzgerald .45

Distribution of scoring by player in non-PPR league:.

 Distribution
Player Max 0.9 0.75 Median 0.25 0.1 Min
Terrell Owens

41.3

23.0 16.4 12.6 6.5 3.3 1.7
Larry Fitzgerald 27.6 19.0 15.3 11.9 7.7 5.2 2.0
Andre Johnson 26.7 18.7 15.7 11.6 5.5 3.0 0.9
Anquan Boldin 32.0 20.2 16.2 11.4 6.0 4.0 -
Marques Colston 28.3 20.2 15.5 10.8 4.8 3.1 1.6
Steve Smith 33.3 23.2 17.8 10.7 4.7 1.8 -
Greg Jennings 22.9 16.7 14.7 10.3 5.0 2.0 0.2
Calvin Johnson 24.9 15.1 12.6 10.2 4.7 3.3 0.3
Reggie Wayne 31.8 18.3 14.8 9.8 7.0 4.5 1.9
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 26.5 19.9 15.1 9.5 5.6 4.3 1.3
Vincent Jackson 20.8 16.2 11.8 9.3 5.5 3.3 1.8
Plaxico Burress 32.4 17.0 14.0 9.2 4.3 3.4 0.3
Steve Breaston 16.2 12.4 10.9 8.8 4.4 1.7 0.6
Hines Ward 35.1 20.1 12.2 8.7 4.3 2.6 0.2
Randy Moss 3928 23.0 17.5 8.6 4.5 2.6 0.8
Dwayne Bowe 22.4 13.6 10.5 8.6 6.3 4.1 2.7
Brandon Marshall 23.5 18.4 11.6 8.3 6.3 3.0 1.9
Torry Holt 33.4 18.9 13.5 8.2 5.4 3.2 0.5
Chad Ochocinco 38.0 19.8 13.8 8.1 4.8 3.2 1.1
Bernard Berrian 19.1 16.4 12.9 7.9 3.8 1.7 (0.2)
Kevin Walter 20.6 17.2 13.7 7.7 3.3 1.3 0.8
Braylon Edwards 26.6 19.4 13.3 7.6 3.2 1.8 0.2
Santonio Holmes 24.8 13.5 9.9 7.6 4.2 2.7 1.3
Justin Gage 26.7 14.7 10.5 7.1 3.8 1.9 0.6
Isaac Bruce 20.8 15.3 12.2 7.0 4.6 1.6 0.6
Wes Welker 25.8 13.6 10.8 6.9 4.1 2.5 (0.1)
Lee Evans 38.5 17.1 11.7 6.9 2.3 1.2 (1.0)
Santana Moss 34.0 19.3 12.8 6.9 3.2 1.7 (2.0)
Donald Driver 25.1 16.6 12.9 6.8 4.9 3.8 0.8
Roy Williams 29.7 16.5 11.2 6.7 3.5 1.6 0.5
Derrick Mason 19.6 14.1 11.9 6.7 4.2 2.9 0.3
DeSean Jackson 11.6 11.1 10.2 6.6 3.0 1.0 -
Bobby Engram 19.9 11.9 9.4 6.5 4.3 2.5 0.8
Eddie Royal 22.4 18.7 12.1 6.4 3.6 1.7 1.1
Laveranues Coles 28.5 17.5 12.4 6.4 3.0 1.5 0.2
Jerricho Cotchery 21.2 14.4 11.0 6.2 3.7 1.5 -
Roddy White 23.3 17.4 12.6 5.8 2.6 1.1 (0.2)
Donnie Avery 22.3 11.5 8.3 5.6 2.2 1.4 -
Devin Hester 12.7 10.4 8.7 5.6 2.2 1.3 0.7
Antonio Bryant 32.0 17.5 10.4 5.3 3.2 1.9 1.3
Ted Ginn Jr. 17.5 11.9 5.5 4.9 3.8 0.8 (0.1)
Anthony Gonzalez 25.4 15.3 9.6 3.7 2.2 1.3 0.3
Domenik Hixon 16.2 7.1 6.0 3.0 0.9 0.2 -

Rankings of each point in the distribution, sorted by median:

 Ranking
Player Max 0.9 0.75 Median 0.25 0.1 Min
Terrell Owens 1 2 3 1 3 9 6
Larry Fitzgerald 16 11 7 2 1 1 2
Andre Johnson 17 14 5 3 8 15 13
Anquan Boldin 10 5 4 4 6 5 32
Marques Colston 15 4 6 5 14 13 7
Steve Smith 8 1 1 6 15 26 32
Greg Jennings 28 23 10 7 11 22 28
Calvin Johnson 24 30 19 8 15 8 25
Reggie Wayne 12 16 9 9 2 2 3
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 20 7 8 10 7 3 8
Vincent Jackson 33 27 26 11 9 9 5
Plaxico Burress 9 22 11 12 21 7 27
Steve Breaston 40 37 31 13 19 27 19
Hines Ward 5 6 22 14 20 18 28
Randy Moss 4 3 2 15 18 19 14
Dwayne Bowe 29 35 33 15 5 4 4
Brandon Marshall 26 15 28 17 4 14 3
Torry Holt 7 12 14 18 10 12 22
Chad Ochocinco 3 8 12 19 13 11 11
Bernard Berrian 38 26 17 20 26 28 40
Kevin Walter 35 20 13 21 32 31 14
Braylon Edwards 19 9 15 22 34 25 28
Santonio Holmes 25 36 37 22 23 17 8
Justin Gage 17 31 34 24 28 23 19
Isaac Bruce 33 29 23 25 17 32 19
Wes Welker 21 34 32 26 25 21 38
Lee Evans 2 21 27 26 39 39 42
Santana Moss 6 10 18 26 34 28 43
Donald Driver 23 24 16 29 12 6 14
Roy Williams 13 25 29 30 31 32 22
Derrick Mason 37 33 25 30 24 16 25
DeSean Jackson 43 41 36 32 36 41 32
Bobby Engram 36 39 39 33 22 20 14
Eddie Royal 29 13 24 34 30 30 11
Laveranues Coles 14 17 21 34 36 34 28
Jerricho Cotchery 32 32 30 36 29 35 32
Roddy White 27 19 20 37 38 40 40
Donnie Avery 31 40 41 38 40 36 32
Devin Hester 42 42 40 39 40 37 18
Antonio Bryant 10 17 35 40 33 24 8
Ted Ginn Jr. 39 38 43 41 26 42 38
Anthony Gonzalez 22 28 38 42 40 38 25
Domenik Hixon 40 43 42 43 43 43 32


The focus of this article is identifying players whose value is highly dependent on a scoring system. With that in mind, we will move onto focusing on the differences between the stats in the two scoring systems.

Let’s sort the players by their change in ranking in moving from the non-PPR format to the PPR format. The -8 for Wes Welker indicates that he is ranked 8 spots better in PPR than in non-PPR. To nobody’s surprise he’s worth more in a PPR format historically. The 5 for Santonio Holmes indicates that he is ranked 5 spots worse in PPR than in non-PPR. His worth is less in a PPR format historically.

 Rank Change Non-PPR To PPR
Rank Player Change in rank
Non-PPR to PPR
1 Wes Welker (8)
2 Derrick Mason (7)
3 Donald Driver (5)
4 Steve Breaston (4)
5 Brandon Marshall (3)
6 Dwayne Bowe (3)
7 Eddie Royal (3)
8 Jerricho Cotchery (2)
9 Anquan Boldin (1)
10 Reggie Wayne (1)
11 T.J. Houshmandzadeh (1)
12 Torry Holt (1)
13 Hines Ward (1)
14 Santana Moss (1)
15 Bobby Engram (1)
16 Ted Ginn Jr. (1)
17 Terrell Owens -
18 Larry Fitzgerald -
19 Andre Johnson -
20 Marques Colston -
21 Chad Ochocinco -
22 Laveranues Coles -
23 DeSean Jackson -
24 Anthony Gonzalez -
25 Domenik Hixon -
26 Steve Smith 1
27 Kevin Walter 1
28 Isaac Bruce 1
29 Roddy White 1
30 Donnie Avery 1
31 Devin Hester 1
32 Randy Moss 2
33 Plaxico Burress 2
34 Calvin Johnson 2
35 Antonio Bryant 2
36 Justin Gage 2
37 Greg Jennings 3
38 Bernard Berrian 3
39 Roy Williams 3
40 Braylon Edwards 4
41 Lee Evans 4
42 Vincent Jackson 5
43 Santonio Holmes 5
  • Wes Welker, Derrick Mason, and Donald Driver are much more valuable in a PPR scoring format than a non-PPR format. This indicates they catch a lot more passes than their peers with a similar amount of receiving yards and touchdowns. A significant portion of their value comes from frequent targets that don’t amount to a lot of yards or touchdowns.

  • Braylon Edwards, Lee Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Santonio Holmes are less valuable in a PPR scoring format than a non-PPR format. This indicates they catch fewer passes than their peers with a similar amount of receiving yards and touchdowns. A lot of their value comes from games where they have only a couple receptions, but they “make them count”.

In past articles we have spent a fair amount of time discussing not only the average points per game, but also the distribution of the scores that lead to those averages. Let’s look at the change in rankings by percentile from moving from non-PPR to PPR format.

The -11 for the Median of Eddie Royal indicates the ranking of his median score among all receivers is 11 spots better in a PPR format than a non-PPR. The 9 for the median of Plaxico Burress indicates the ranking of his median score among all receivers is 9 sports worse in a PPR format than a non-PPR league.

 Distribution Change: Non-PPR To PPR
Player Max 0.9 0.75 Median 0.25 0.1 Min
Eddie Royal 2 0 -6 -11 -4 -8 -4
Bobby Engram -8 -1 -2 -7 5 -1 1
Laveranues Coles 0 0 1 -6 -4 2 -6
Jerricho Cotchery 2 2 -5 -6 1 0 1
Torry Holt 1 2 -4 -5 -1 -4 0
Dwayne Bowe 0 0 -1 -4 1 1 0
Kevin Walter 1 -4 4 -4 2 -7 -2
Donald Driver 1 -3 -3 -4 0 0 1
Derrick Mason -2 0 6 -4 -6 -4 1
Steve Breaston 0 -1 -2 -3 2 2 0
Chad Ochocinco 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 1
Braylon Edwards 0 6 0 -2 1 3 2
Anquan Boldin -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 5
Greg Jennings 2 -1 1 -1 -1 3 2
Reggie Wayne -2 -5 0 -1 0 0 0
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 0 0 -1 -1 -4 0 0
Hines Ward 0 3 -6 -1 4 3 2
Donnie Avery 1 1 -1 -1 1 2 5
Ted Ginn Jr. 0 1 -1 -1 3 -1 -4
Terrell Owens 0 -1 1 0 2 1 0
Larry Fitzgerald 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0
Marques Colston 3 1 0 0 1 -2 -4
Steve Smith -2 1 0 0 -4 1 5
Brandon Marshall -9 4 -7 0 0 6 2
Devin Hester 1 0 1 0 0 -3 0
Anthony Gonzalez 1 1 0 0 2 1 1
Domenik Hixon 1 0 1 0 0 0 5
Andre Johnson -2 -2 -2 1 0 -8 1
Randy Moss 0 0 3 1 -1 -1 1
Roddy White 0 -1 8 1 -1 -3 -4
Antonio Bryant 1 3 -2 1 3 8 2
Vincent Jackson 4 1 4 2 6 5 3
Bernard Berrian 0 4 3 2 -3 2 -11
Santonio Holmes 1 1 1 2 -1 -2 2
Calvin Johnson 1 -4 5 3 10 8 1
Isaac Bruce -1 2 3 3 1 1 0
DeSean Jackson -1 -1 -3 3 -3 -1 5
Lee Evans 0 3 0 6 0 3 0
Santana Moss 5 -4 1 6 -6 -5 0
Roy Williams 0 0 4 6 0 -2 0
Justin Gage 5 1 2 7 10 3 0
Wes Welker 0 -7 -9 8 -11 -4 -4
Plaxico Burress -2 1 2 9 -3 5 1
  • More players that thrive in a PPR system stand out here. Eddie Royal, Bobby Engram, Laveranues Coles, and Jerricho Cotchery are the 4 with the biggest improvement in their median score.

  • Wes Welker is an interesting case here. At first glance this chart might appear to indicate Wes Welker thrives in a non-PPR format, based on the change in his median score. But a careful look at his stats indicates that his ranking at almost all percentiles is significantly improved in the PPR format. We happen to rank by the median here, but it is clear that Wes Welker is helped in a PPR format – even though his median score happens to rank worse in the PPR format. This emphasizes the fact that these stats require some care in interpretation.

  • Plaxico Burress, Justin Gage, Roy Williams, Santana Moss, and Lee Evans stand out here as having a worse median rank in a PPR system than in a non-PPR. If you look at the distribution of their scores as a whole, Justin Gage is hurt the most across the board at most percentiles by moving to a PPR format.

What About This Year?

  • Santonio Holmes has a history of getting less targets than his peers but doing a lot with the few targets he gets. This drives his having higher value in non-PPR leagues. I anticipate that will change this year, and that Santonio Holmes will start getting more targets. This is driven in part by the aging of Hines Ward and also by the departure of Nate Washington. With that in mind, I think he will move from being a receiver who performs much better in a non-PPR format to a receiver who performs similar in both.

  • Wes Welker has historically gotten a lot of targets as Tom Brady’s “dump-off” option in the slot. I see no reason to expect that will change drastically this year. The addition of Joey Galloway could cut into his targets a bit, but I anticipate Wes Welker will continue to be significantly more valuable in a PPR format.

  • Derrick Mason has historically racked up a lot of short catches, which have driven his higher value in PPR leagues. He’s had some odd pre-season activity (which included a brief retirement), and the receivers behind him have some injury issues. But I think he will continue to be more valuable in PPR leagues than non-PPR, as I don’t see a drastic change in his role this year.

  • Vincent Jackson has historically performed better in non-PPR leagues than PPR leagues. I see an increase in his targets this season as his role in the Chargers receiving corps expands, and I see him performing similarly in PPR and non-PPR leagues.

  • Laveranues Coles has historically performed similarly in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. I see him emerging as a receiver that performs better in PPR leagues than non-PPR leagues in his new role with the Bengals. I see him being the target of a lot of short passes from Carson Palmer this year, as he tries to fill part of the void T.J. Houshmandzadeh left.

Conclusion

The scoring system of your league matters. When choosing players in a draft it’s important to be aware of the scoring system. Scoring systems have two common structures – one awards points for receptions and one doesn’t. What this article investigated was WR consistency in non-PPR leagues and receivers whose value is highly dependent on the scoring structure.

For most receivers, it’s doesn’t make a big difference either way. We highlighted some receivers who perform much better historically in a PPR format (like Wes Welker and Derrick Mason). We also highlighted some who perform better historically in a non-PPR (like Vincent Jackson and Santonio Holmes).

In addition to this, we have highlighted some changes we anticipate this year with respect to specific players and their relative value in PPR vs. non-PPR leagues in the future.

If you are in a few leagues and one is PPR and one is not, be sure to adjust your WR rankings accordingly for your draft. Hopefully this article gives you some perspective that will help with those adjustments.