Prediction: Patriots 30, Colts 27
by Mike Krueger | Follow @FF_Today
Player Rankings and Projections
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Indianapolis Colts |
Rank |
Player |
Projections |
QB 1 |
Andrew Luck |
Pass: 320, 2 TD Rush: 20, 0 |
RB 3 |
Dan Herron |
Rush: 55, 0 TD Rec: 8-50, 0 |
RB 8 |
Zurlon Tipton |
Rush: 15, 0 TD Rec: 1-5, 0 |
RB 12 |
Trent Richardson |
Rush: 5, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
WR 1 |
T.Y. Hilton |
Rec: 6-85, 1 TD |
WR 8 |
Hakeem Nicks |
Rec: 2-35, 0 TD |
WR 10 |
Donte Moncrief |
Rec: 2-30, 0 TD |
WR 12 |
Reggie Wayne |
Rec: 2-25, 0 TD |
TE 2 |
Dwayne Allen |
Rec: 3-30, 1 TD |
TE 4 |
Coby Fleener |
Rec: 4-40, 0 TD |
K 3 |
Adam Vinatieri |
FG: 2/2 XP: 3/3 |
DEF 4 |
Defense / ST |
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New England Patriots |
Rank |
Player |
Projections |
QB 3 |
Tom Brady |
Pass: 280, 2 TD Rush: 5, 0 |
RB 2 |
LeGarrette Blount |
Rush: 75, 1 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
RB 5 |
Shane Vereen |
Rush: 25, 0 TD Rec: 4-25, 0 |
RB 10 |
Jonas Gray |
Rush: 5, 0 TD Rec: 0-0, 0 |
WR 4 |
Brandon LaFell |
Rec: 4-50, 1 TD |
WR 5 |
Julian Edelman |
Rec: 7-80, 0 TD |
WR 9 |
Danny Amendola |
Rec: 2-30, 0 TD |
TE 1 |
Rob Gronkowski |
Rec: 9-85, 1 TD |
K 2 |
Stephen Gostkowski |
FG: 3/3 XP: 3/3 |
DEF 2 |
Defense / ST |
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Game Notes
Colts Club has reached postseason for 3rd straight season under head coach CHUCK PAGANO & 12 of past 13 seasons overall. Clinched AFC South title for 9th time since 2003... QB Andrew Luck is 1st player in NFL history to pass for 250+ yards in each of 1st 5 career playoff games. Passed for 331 yards & 2 TDs in only playoff meeting vs. NE. Led NFL with 40 TDs & became 8th player with 40+ TDs in season. Since entering NFL in 2012, has 12,957 yards, most of any NFL player in 1st 3 seasons, & 86 TD passes, 2nd-most in player's 1st 3 years (HOFer DAN MARINO, 98). 1 of 2 Super Bowl era starting QBs to win at least 10 games in each of 1st 3 NFL seasons (RUSSELL WILSON)... In 2 career playoff games, RB DANIEL HERRON has 236 scrimmage yards (119 rush, 117 rec.) & 2 rush TDs. Aims for 3rd playoff in row with rush TD. Led team with 95 scrimmage yards last week vs. Broncos... WR T.Y. Hilton averages 113.6 receiving yards per game in playoffs (568 in 5 games) with 2 TDs. In past 14 (incl. playoffs), has 76 rec. for 1,334 yards with 7 TDs, incl. 7 100-yard games. Led team with career-high 1,345 receiving yards, joining MARVIN HARRISON & Reggie Wayne as only players in club history with 1,300+ yard receiving season. WR Reggie Wayne ranks 2nd all-time with 93 career postseason catches (HOFer JERRY RICE, 151). Has 1,254 career receiving yards in playoffs & needs 62 yards to surpass CLIFF BRANCH (1,289) & HOFer MICHAEL IRVIN (1,315) for 2nd all-time. In 6 career playoff games, WR Hakeem Nicks has 33 catches for 527 yards & 5 TDs, incl. 15-yard TD last week vs. Den. TEs Dwayne Allen (8) & Coby Fleener (8) are 1st TEs in club history with 8+ TD catches each in same season. In last reg.-sea. meeting, Fleener had 7 catches for 144 yards (20.6 avg.)... LB D'QWELL JACKSON led AFC with 140 tackles. Rookie LB Jonathan Newsome led AFC rookies with 6.5 sacks in 2014. S Mike Adams led team with career-high 5 INTs this season. CB Vontae Davis tied career-high with 4 INTs (2009, 2011)... K Adam Vinatieri is NFL's all-time playoff leader in career points (233) & made FGs (56), incl. 20 points & 5 FGs in 2014 postseason... Club had 5 players selected to 2015 Pro Bowl (QB Luck, WR Hilton, CB Davis, K Vinatieri, P PAT MC AFEE).
Patriots With win, Pats will advance to 8th Super Bowl in club history (3-4). NE has 7-4 record in AFC Championship Games (4th consecutive Championship Game appearance). 1st team in NFL history to win 11 division titles in 12 seasons. Club is 16-4 (.800) at home in postseason, trailing only Seahawks (10-2, .833) for 2nd-best all-time (min. 10 games). Have won 17 of past 18 at home (incl. playoffs)... Head coach BILL BELICHICK & QB Tom Brady (19) have most postseason wins by head coach-QB duo... Belichick (20) is tied with HOFer TOM LANDRY for most playoff wins all-time... Brady's 19 postseason wins are most by QB in NFL history. Last week, Brady (46) surpassed BRETT FAVRE (44) & HOFer JOE MONTANA (45) for most career TDs in NFL playoff history. Brady has most completions (623), attempts (1,000) in NFL playoff history. Brady (6,791) needs 10 passing yards to eclipse PEYTON MANNING (6,800) for most career passing yards in postseason history. Has 19-8 (.704) playoff record, 3rd-best postseason record as starting QB in NFL history (min. 15 starts). Brady is 13-3 (.813) as starter at home in postseason. Has 12 division titles, most by starting QB in NFL history. Posted 4 total TDs last week (3 pass, 1 rush), incl. 5th career playoff rush TD... In 5 career playoff games, RB Shane Vereen has 333 scrimmage yards (114 rush, 219) with 3 total TDs (1 rush, 2 rec.). Averages 8.6 scrimmage yards per att./rec. in postseason. In only career start vs. Ind. (10/3/11 with TB), RB LeGarrette Blount rushed for 127 yards & TD... TE Rob Gronkowski led team with 12 TD catches in 2014, tied for most among NFL TEs. 1 of 2 TEs in NFL history with 4 career 10-TD seasons (ANTONIO GATES). In 5 career home playoff games, has 26 catches for 405 yards & 4 TDs, incl. 7 catches for 108 yards & TD last week. Aims for 5th in row overall (incl. playoffs) with TD catch. WR Julian Edelman led team with 92 catches in 2014 & joined TROY BROWN & WES WELKER as only Patriots with consecutive 90-catch seasons. Last week, became 1st player in NFL playoff history with 4+ catches (8) & TD pass in same game, incl. 1st career NFL TD pass (51-yarder to Danny Amendola)... LB Jamie Collins led team with career-high 115 tackles. 1 of 3 NFL players with 4+ sacks (4) & 2+ INTs (2) in 2014. LB Rob Ninkovich led team with 8 sacks in 2014, 3rd consecutive season with 8 sacks... Club had 5 players selected to 2015 Pro Bowl (QB Brady, TE Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis, K Stephen Gostkowski, ST MATTHEW SLATER).
Results and Schedule
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|
New England Patriots |
Week |
Date |
Opp |
H/A |
Score |
Dif |
1 |
2014-09-07 |
MIA |
A |
L 20-33 |
-13 |
2 |
2014-09-14 |
MIN |
A |
W 30-7 |
+23 |
3 |
2014-09-21 |
OAK |
H |
W 16-9 |
+7 |
4 |
2014-09-29 |
KC |
A |
L 14-41 |
-27 |
5 |
2014-10-05 |
CIN |
H |
W 43-17 |
+26 |
6 |
2014-10-12 |
BUF |
A |
W 37-22 |
+15 |
7 |
2014-10-16 |
NYJ |
H |
W 27-25 |
+2 |
8 |
2014-10-26 |
CHI |
H |
W 51-23 |
+28 |
9 |
2014-11-02 |
DEN |
H |
W 43-21 |
+22 |
10 |
|
Bye |
|
|
|
11 |
2014-11-16 |
IND |
A |
W 42-20 |
+22 |
12 |
2014-11-23 |
DET |
H |
W 34-9 |
+25 |
13 |
2014-11-30 |
GB |
A |
L 21-26 |
-5 |
14 |
2014-12-07 |
SD |
A |
W 23-14 |
+9 |
15 |
2014-12-14 |
MIA |
H |
W 41-13 |
+28 |
16 |
2014-12-21 |
NYJ |
A |
W 17-16 |
+1 |
17 |
2014-12-28 |
BUF |
H |
L 9-17 |
-8 |
WC |
|
Bye |
|
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|
DP |
2015-01-10 |
BAL |
H |
W 35-31 |
+4 |
CC |
2015-01-18 |
IND |
H |
W 45-7 |
+38 |
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Offense Stats Comparison
|
IND Offense |
NE Offense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points for |
23.0 |
23.8 |
22.0 |
NE |
Rushing yards |
98.3 |
92.5 |
112.6 |
IND |
Rushing yards per attempt |
3.95 |
3.96 |
4.24 |
NE |
Completion % |
60.0% |
63.8% |
62.2% |
NE |
Passing yards |
256.3 |
244.8 |
227.7 |
IND |
Passing yards per completion |
11.51 |
9.81 |
10.65 |
IND |
Passing yards per attempt |
6.91 |
6.26 |
6.63 |
IND |
Interceptions |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
NE |
Fumbles lost |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
NE |
Sacks allowed |
2.0 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
NE |
3rd down conversions |
37.8% |
44.4% |
38.5% |
NE |
4th down conversions |
40.0% |
60.0% |
46.9% |
NE |
Time of possession |
28:44 |
28:39 |
30:03 |
IND |
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Defense Stats Comparison
|
IND Defense |
NE Defense |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Points against |
17.8 |
15.0 |
22.0 |
NE |
Rushing yards |
114.8 |
96.8 |
112.6 |
NE |
Rushing yards per attempt |
3.78 |
3.58 |
4.24 |
NE |
Completion % |
57.7% |
57.9% |
62.2% |
IND |
Passing yards |
163.3 |
226.8 |
227.7 |
IND |
Passing yards per completion |
9.94 |
11.44 |
10.65 |
IND |
Passing yards per attempt |
5.74 |
6.63 |
6.63 |
IND |
INT return |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.9 |
NE |
Fumble recoveries |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
IND |
Sacks |
2.5 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
NE |
3rd down conversions |
31.0% |
36.8% |
38.5% |
IND |
4th down conversions |
11.1% |
55.6% |
46.9% |
IND |
Time of possession |
31:16 |
31:21 |
30:03 |
IND |
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Special Teams Stats Comparison
|
IND |
NE |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Yards per punt return |
6.6 |
8.8 |
9.2 |
NE |
Yards per kick return |
32.0 |
22.0 |
23.7 |
IND |
Yards allowed per punt return |
8.7 |
7.9 |
9.2 |
NE |
Yards allowed per kick return |
23.8 |
22.6 |
23.7 |
NE |
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Misc Stats Comparison
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IND |
NE |
NFL Avg. |
Adv. |
Penalties |
6.8 |
5.3 |
6.5 |
NE |
Penalty yards |
48.5 |
53.5 |
54.4 |
IND |
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Note: Team statistics are shown as the average per game
through Weeks 12 to 17 of the 2014 season after deducting the best
and worst value from the data set. The exception is yards per rush attempt, completion %, yards per
pass completion, yards per pass attempt, 3rd and 4th down conversions, special teams and the NFL averages, which are each calculated based on
totals through Weeks 12 to 17 with no adjustment.
Weather
Team vs. Team History
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots |
Season |
Week |
Date |
Vis |
Home |
Score |
Winner |
2000 |
6 |
2000-10-08 |
IND |
NE |
16-24 |
NE |
2000 |
8 |
2000-10-22 |
NE |
IND |
23-30 |
IND |
2001 |
3 |
2001-09-30 |
IND |
NE |
13-44 |
NE |
2001 |
6 |
2001-10-21 |
NE |
IND |
38-17 |
NE |
2003 |
13 |
2003-11-30 |
NE |
IND |
38-34 |
NE |
2004 |
1 |
2004-09-09 |
IND |
NE |
24-27 |
NE |
2004 |
DP |
2005-01-16 |
IND |
NE |
3-20 |
NE |
2005 |
9 |
2005-11-07 |
IND |
NE |
40-21 |
IND |
2006 |
9 |
2006-11-05 |
IND |
NE |
27-20 |
IND |
2006 |
CF |
2007-01-21 |
NE |
IND |
34-38 |
IND |
2007 |
9 |
2007-11-04 |
NE |
IND |
24-20 |
NE |
2008 |
9 |
2008-11-02 |
NE |
IND |
15-18 |
IND |
2009 |
10 |
2009-11-15 |
NE |
IND |
34-35 |
IND |
2010 |
11 |
2010-11-21 |
IND |
NE |
28-31 |
NE |
2011 |
13 |
2011-12-04 |
IND |
NE |
24-31 |
NE |
2012 |
11 |
2012-11-18 |
IND |
NE |
24-59 |
NE |
2013 |
DP |
2014-01-11 |
IND |
NE |
22-43 |
NE |
2014 |
11 |
2014-11-16 |
NE |
IND |
42-20 |
NE |
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Note: Only playoff games from the 2004 to 2010 seasons are included in the team vs. team history. Playoff games from seasons prior to 2004 are not currently included in the database. DP = Divisional Playoff CF = Conference Final
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