Knowing Your League: Pt 2 - Initial Draft
The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense
of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check
is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s
a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information.
This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s
potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining
the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines
that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.
Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic,
he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and
help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep
a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This
way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider,
or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast
as you can!
The Gut Check is going to take you through his preparation for the
re-draft league he described here
last week. The steps listed below are more or less common to most
long-time fantasy football enthusiasts:
- Scouting Future Rookies
- Staying Current
- The NFL Draft
- Initial Projections
- Update Projections
- Average Draft Position Research
- Compiling A Draft List
- Repeat steps 6-9, each week leading up to the draft
Before The Gut Check shares how he prepares in further detail,
you'll need some perspective on the scoring system and his team's
history in this league.
The ABFFL is a 25-round draft with these options for starting
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, 1 TE, 1 Team Defense/Special Teams,
- 1 QB, 1 RB, 5 WR, 1 TE, 1 Team Defense/Special Teams,
Currently there's a proposal to change/get rid of these options
and employ a 2 RB, 3 WR lineup.
The scoring system is as follows:
- 0.1 pt per 10 yards rushing (any offensive position)
- 0.1 pt per 20 yards passing (any offensive position)
- 0.1 pt per 10 yards receiving (any offensive position)
- Bonus points at, and beyond 300 yards passing, 100 yards
rushing, and 100 yards receiving0.2 pts apply to players once
they perform over these totals
- 6 pts per rushing and receiving touchdown
- 4 pts per passing touchdown
- 2 pts per rushing 2-point conversion
- 1 pt per passing 2-point conversion and 1pt per receiving
- 3 pts per FG with a 1 pt bonus for made FGs of 50 yards
- Def/SP's receive full credit for safeties and tds. They
receive bonuses for points allowed achievements.
The Gut Check is entering his ninth year in the AABFL. Yours
Truly has made the playoffs every year with the exception of an
ill-advised attempt to run a fantasy team on an island where he
lacked a phone and getting Internet access was a costly and time-consuming
adventure. The Gut Check's greatest claim to fame was becoming
the first to win the league's Triple Crown of a league title,
scoring title, and best record. Additionally, he's the only owner
in the history of the league to ever win a championship without
making a single trade or waiver wire transaction.
The Gut Check was originally a conservative drafter that religiously
followed the Stud RB approach. As the years passed, his draft
strategy has strayed from the norm, incorporating more risks and
highly experimental strategies. Once he used the first four rounds
to pick four wide receivers. Since the league started four wide
receivers, he believed this against the grain approach with the
last pick in the round could theoretically field him a dominant
team. Although he fielded a competitive team, two of his four
choices were lost for the season with knee injuries by game two
and he discovered wide receiver depth was much easier to obtain
in later rounds than running back depth.
The Gut Check's greatest strength is also his weakness, and that's
his affection for drafting sleepers. The Gut Check is both proud
and ashamed to say that he drafted Edgerrin James in his rookie
year with the 11th pick overall. That's right, he has a pattern
of boldly hitching his wagon to players too early when he could
have taken a more conservative approach and still got the player.
Slight reaches aren't bad strategies if you have good reason to
believe the player is vastly undervalued, you only plan to make
a very limited number of reaches in your draft, and ADP data dictates
you won't land the player later.
But in the case of drafting Edgerrin James, this was a mammoth
reach. While he's proud that he ultimately picked a player he
believed would perform to the value he projected, he's ashamed
he didn't take Marshall Faulk. Faulk was a player The Gut Check
had in 1998, but he wasn't too confident in the Rams' star repeating
his performance. Faulk just got traded in the off-season to a
St. Louis organization that lost their starting quarterback the
day before his draft. Watching their head coach crying, as he
named a journeyman fresh off stints with the Arena League and
NFL Europe as their replacement, wasn't exactly a confidence builder
for Yours Truly.
However, The Gut Check had a good indication from mock drafts
with some league members that James would have made it back to
him at the end round three, so the best strategy would have been
to take the more proven players. Fortunately Faulk, James, and
George finished one, two, and three overall in RB fantasy points
in 1999, but if The Gut Check trusted his ADP data, he would have
been able to draft all three backs!
However, the Gut Check also has been known to pick some serious
duds. For every Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, Justin McCareins,
or Chad Johnson drafted on their breakout year, he's also picked
Michael Westbrook, Jeff George, and Cecil Collins. So The Gut
Check is going to make a concerted effort to understand that the
phrases "head case with potential," and "potential
head case," can have the same meaning.
But the root of his problem is reaching for sleepers. Yours Truly
gets so hyped on players, he makes too many reaches because he's
fixated on drafting themeven if he is aware that he has a chance
to get the player later. As a result, The Gut Check has reached
for sleepers in places where he could have gotten them later and
picked players of solid value earlier to build a strong team from
top to bottom. Edgerrin James is a lucky example of this working
out. In fact, drafting Edgerrin James this early and having it
work out for him was probably the worst thing that could have
happened to his recent draft strategies. More often than not,
this tendency of The Gut Check's creates more problems that are
the difference between being a competitive, playoff team and a
Relying on un-tested or un-known players fosters a lot of second-guessing
of whom to start on a weekly basis. This has led to some heart-breaking
losses. One year that included a semi-final playoff loss because
an un-drafted rookie, Fred Lanea player The Gut Check actually
draftedcouldn't score a touchdown against the Cowboys on four
consecutive attempts! Yours Truly still experiences flashbacks,
but he learned that in most cases, reaching for playersno matter
how successful they becomedenies you important depth. This depth
safeguards your roster from injuries, creates more trade options
to solidify holes in your line up, or keeps other rosters from
being as competitive because you have bench players that are more
productive than their starters.
So that's The Gut Check's story. As a way to hopefully safeguard
against these problems and take his team back to the championship,
The Gut Check will incorporate two aspects of draft preparation
that has lacked the proper emphasis in his previous game plans:
Benchmarking and ADP research.
First, let's examine what The Gut Check does prior to these steps
that can refine a draft strategy.
Scouting Future Rookies
The Gut Check's draft preparation starts on Saturdays. While watching
a college games, he keeps a journal handy to write down the names
of the players he notices. Anything outstanding about that playergood
or badgoes in the book. Additionally, he tries to focus on two
or three players in a game where he compiles more extensive notes.
He pretends he's a scout watching filmexcept he doesn't have
the luxury of a film room. Once the Gut Check buys a record-able
DVD player or a TIVO system, watch out!
Although scouting reports from various Internet sites are a great
resource, first-hand observation is a terrific supplement that
can tip the scales on a player. The Gut Check has seen more than
a few examples of player evaluations where descriptions of that
player's strengths and weaknesses appear to be very different
from what he saw. There can be plausible explanations for this.
Even so, the beauty of compiling your own notes and comparing
them to various reports on the same player helps you discover
which evaluations to throw out. The Gut Check's Saturday "couch-scouting
sessions" have yielded Brian Westbrook, Brandon Lloyd, and
Byron Leftwich as players for him to keep an eye on, and not just
take what's said about them at face value.
This is like working out three times a week or cleaning the house
on a regular schedule. Working incrementally rather than cramming
it into a short time, is the best way to maintain results. The
Gut Check scans the news wires during the off-season leading up
to the draft, and local newspaper sites that provide coverage
of their team afterwards. Accessing player scouting websites and
chat rooms helps you see how the general fantasy public feels
about players or some piece of news that could impact others.
The Gut Check watches the draft from beginning to end. In truth,
it's because the draft is the football equivalent of methadone.
For those of us in denial, we'll reason that the analysis provided
from various sources on each player is enlightening. Truthfully,
we're just obsessed. That said if Ron Jaworski ever decides to
teach an NFL film study class, The Gut Check is scraping together
whatever cash he needs to enroll and is hitching his way up to
Philly. In fact, if anyone knows Peyton Manning, Priest Holmes
or Ray Lewis, please volunteer The Gut Check's services as a live-in
housekeeper or landscaper. He's willing to do this for a month
or two in exchange for the chance to sit in on their home film
study. He'll even bring a tent if they don't want him living in
Before the Compiler,
The Gut Check created an Access Database to store his current
year projections as well as previous years and their resulting
fantasy points. Unfortunately, a virus did away with about five
years worth of data. This is why The Gut Check always speaks in
third personit is not because he thinks he's a superstar
athletehe simply had a nervous breakdown after losing all
Initial projections are like a first draft: sloppy, misguided,
but hopefully filled with good ideas to develop in the revision
process. Generally, Yours Truly will base much of his first projections
upon the previous years stats. This is a good basis for most starters
that played every game last year and are returning to the same
team. Not all players are this fortunate, so there has to be other
methods to create somewhat meaningful, initial projections.
Players that missed game last year due
The Gut Check takes a player's final stats and calculates them
on a per game basis. Then he projects these per game figures on
an entire sixteen-week season. This generally has merit if the
player has missed only a handful of game. If the player missed
more than half the season, then it's best to look at his previous
season, unless of course he's a rookie.
If the rookie is the projected starter, then The Gut Check will
use the starter's performance from the previous year as a baseline.
If the rookie is not the starter, he'll use the backup's performance
from the previous year. Sometimes, The Gut Check will project
the player as a starter when the team hasn't anointed him as such.
For example, rookies Kevin Jones and Julius Jones were both listed
as starters in The Gut Check's initial projections.
Starters coming to new teams as the starter
Last year's stats and the stats of the player this starter is
replacing are also considered for the baseline. The Gut Check's
rating of Jeff Garcia is based on this concept.
Other good strategies to consider when creating one's projections
- Comparing your previous year's projected total fantasy
points with the actual results. You'll discover a lot. You could
be good and projecting teams you know, or need improvement at
a specific position. Regardless, it will become quickly apparent
and prevent you from making the same mistakes.
- Making an effort match the projected passing yards of a quarterback
with the receiving yards of his backs and receivers. This helps
develop realistic expectations for all players on the team.
You'd be surprised how many people drastically over project
a set of wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs to out-gain
their starting quarterback's projected passing yards.
- Project players as if they will be healthy for the entire
season. This plays an important factor when tiers are created
for one's draft list. If you think Michael Vick could be a top-three
fantasy player when healthy, then it's wise to project him as
such even if you don't believe he'll ever again finish a season.
This gives you insight where others might rank Vick and help you
make better value selections.
Creating projections on your own will yield some results that
greatly differ from your peers. Some of these projections will
be original ideas that are highly justifiable. Others will be
just be flat-out certifiable. This is why it's important not to
keep your projections vacuum-sealed until draft day. As mentioned
earlier, The Gut Check has learned the hard way that "do
it your self," doesn't have to be, "do it by yourself."
A great way to test your projections is to compare them to some
one else's that you both respect and tends to be more conservative
in their approach. Since we don't want to reveal our projections
to the competition, using the published projections is a good
approach. The Gut Check decided to benchmark his initial projections
with Mike Krueger's projections
from the CheatSheet Compiler and compare them both to last year's
actual performances, where applicable:
|Gut Check vs. Krueger...
The table is an excerpt of this benchmarking process for each
position. The difference column tracks the variance in points
between Krueger's projections and Yours Truly. The 2003 fantasy
points serves as a frame of reference that we'll use in a later
example. PPG is the difference calculated in points per game.
There's quite a bit to see from this little exercise. It appears
both The Gut Check and Krueger initially think Marvin Harrison
will outperform his 2003 season. This could be something worth
double-checking. If you believe the last year's performance was
an indication that the Colt's secondary receivers are developing
at a pace to take away Harrison's opportunities on a consistent
basis, then you may want to reconsider projecting improvement.
If you think the development of other weapons and the new coverage
rules will only help Harrison, then there's nothing to change.
Mike and Yours Truly have projected within 16 points of each other-or
what amounts to 156 yards receivingnothing that would place
Harrison in a different tier.
On the other hand, Terrell Owens is a point of departure. Mike
projects Owens, as an Eagle, will have similar production as his
2003 season as a Forty Niner. The Gut Check believes Owens will
have a significantly better season catching passes from McNabb.
This was a good reason for The Gut Check to reconsider his expectations.
However, after looking at Owens' 2002 season, and factoring in
McNabb is a more accurate deep ball quarterback, Yours Truly decided
to keep his projections.
Because The Gut Check values Owens much higher than Mike, it's
important that he looks at some ADP data on T.O. to see whether
this difference could have a positive effect on his overall draft
strategy. It appears that ADP's developed from a sample size of
at least 120 drafts conducted last week on AntSports.com
reveals that Owens' ADP is between 2.07 and 3.01. Theoretically,
The Gut Check has a decent chance of grabbing two backs and a
shot at Owens in round three if he's picking late. This type of
information has more of an impact with players not widely considered
top-tier talent already.
What about Randy Moss? Looks like Mike and The Gut Check both
took a cautious approach to Moss due to the lingering foot injury.
The Gut Check decided after reading more about the health of Moss'
foot, that the injury shouldn't be much of a factor and decided
to upgrade his projections to approach Moss' 2003 output.
Let's look at more complex examples:
Steve McNair is a good illustration of a situation where benchmarking
helps you validate your homework. The Gut Check, has projected
McNair as the second best quarterback in 2004, nearly seventy
points better than his Co-MVP, 2003 season. Mike, while optimistic
that McNair is going to improve on his numbers, isn't as optimistic.
Since McNair started 14 games in 2003, The Gut Check decided to
project McNair's stats if he played the entire season.
|McNair's 2003 Season
The Gut Check calculated passing yards per game and touchdowns
per passing attempt as to begin his steps towards projecting a
full season. It's important to note that McNair may have started
14 games, but he only played a brief part of that 14th game against
Atlanta before aggravating the bone spur in his ankle. Taking
this into account, The Gut Check calculated the passing yards
per game from 13 games and rounded up to the nearest whole number.
Multiplying McNair's yards per game by sixteen games yields exactly
4,000 yards (or five yards less than this if you didn't round
up the yds per game).
The Gut Check also projected McNair's attempts per game at 13
games and came up with 31. This amounts to nearly 500 attempts
in a complete season. Multiplying these projected 500 attempts
with .06 touchdowns per attempt yields 30 touchdowns.
As a result of this work, The Gut Check actually increased McNair's
projected yards and passing touchdowns on McNair. At the same
time, he decided to decrease McNair's scores on the ground because
he feels the Titans' quarterback will have a more productive back
in Chris Brown at the goal line and as the passing game took off,
his rushing totals decreased significantly. Considering McNair's
ADP through July 31st from both sites, The Gut Check could actually
get a bargain if his projections are correct and he waits for
the Alcorn State alum 2-3 rounds after Manning (and in some cases)
McNabb are going.
David Carr was an example where The Gut Check was overzealous
in his attempt to project improvement. Based on the original projections,
Carr was slated to throw 16 more touchdowns than in 2003, increase
his passing yards per game by 80 yards, or some combination that
equates to and increase of over 4 fantasy points per game than
After this comparison The Gut Check's initial projections seem
a bit too optimistic. While The Gut Check likes David Carr's prospects
next year, he doesn't foresee this type of explosionhe was really
trying to calculate something that characterize a step forward
rather than a giant leap. So, he checked out Carr's passing yards
per game and projected what it would have been if he played the
entire 2003 season.
The Gut Check calculated that his passing yards per game increased
3% from his rookie year. With another year under his belt Yours
Truly projected a 9% improvement, which still places Carr way
under the 3300 mark which The Gut Check originally rated the Texans'
quarterback. Carr's tds per attempt in his rookie year where 1
td/49.3 attempts. It increased to 1TD/32.7 attemptsa very noticeable
improvementbut not still two less (17) than originally thought
(19). These changes dropped Carr six spots in The Gut Check's
ratingssignificant enough of a drop to force the Gut Check to
think twice about making Carr a solid backup on his roster.
A similar result to re-evaluating Steve McNair's projections
occurred with Jake Plummer. Both Mike and The Gut Check foresee
a healthy Plummer easily surpassing his 2003 totals. But The Gut
Check again is more optimistic. Maybe Mike projects Plummer more
conservatively with a loss of McCaffrey, Sharpe, and Portis out
of the backfield. This is definitely logical thinking, but one
could argue that without Portis the Broncos may have to pass more
often resulting in higher totals for the former Cardinal. Plummer
averaged approximately 197 yards per game. The Gut Check recalculated
the yardage, which gave Plummer nearly 200 more yards for the
year. With Plummer's 2003 touchdown ratio 1 td /20 attempts, The
Gut Check added one more touchdown after projecting the numbers
to a full season. Interestingly enough, in Peter King's recent
edition of MMQB, he actually said in his 10 Things I Think, I
Think section of his column that he things Plummer could win MVP
this year. That maybe a little too dramatic for The Gut Check,
but in a way it is somewhat of a backhanded validation of his
Then there's Brad Johnson. The Gut Check has to admit he doesn't
like Brad Johnson's style. As a result, it reflected in his initial
projections. He doesn't know Mike's reasons for his projections,
but many owners the Gut Check competes against, underrate Johnson
because his style is not exciting. He's like Don Johnson's character
in Tin Cupthe guy that never takes a chance but is always
among the best. Gruden's offensive system is a good fit for Johnson,
and his numbers should stay consistent from last year. That means
I had to bump the Buccaneers quarterback from 19th to 15th to
be more objective. In fact, Johnson's ADP is lower than this reasonably
projected value-probably due to McCardell holding out and Keyshawn
Johnson gonebut The Gut Check thinks he'll continue to deliver
as a terrific bye week option, if not a solid starter.
Next week, The Gut Check shares
his final steps leading up to draft day. This includes last-minute
revisions of projections as needed, creating a draft list, analyzing
the ADP data in greater detail with his tiers in place, and why
there are some players he'll avoid drafting. He'll conclude his
series in part IV with a breakdown of his league's draft. And
just in time for those of you in leagues smart enough to draft
as close to the season as possible, he'll name his first annual,
All-Preseason Gut Check Teama collection of the undervalued
and overachievers that have a good chance of being steals in 2004.