It is a rare event that the “safest” quarterback
who possesses the highest floor also has arguably the highest
ceiling. In two meetings against their division foe Texans in
2018, Andrew Luck has been nothing short of amazing, with 863
passing yards and six touchdowns. Luck has at least 24 fantasy
points in four of his last six games, and the game between the
Colts and the Texans carries the highest implied total (47) of
the four games this weekend. I want to target players in this
game as much as possible, and Luck as my cash game QB makes too
much sense.
Trubisky put together one of the best three-game stretches this
season with 11 passing touchdowns and three-consecutive 300-yard
games against the Bucs, Dolphins, and Patriots. He also has been
downright dreadful at times, with just four total passing touchdowns
in his last four games, and hasn’t hit 20 or more fantasy
points since Week 10. Of the eight QBs to choose from this week,
Trubisky has the best matchup for a passer against an Eagles team
that has given up the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks.
He could take advantage of his matchup and post a monster game,
but he also could be the bad Trubisky that we have seen as of
late. That boom or bust mentality is perfect for GPP players looking
for the home run play.
Other options to consider - Deshaun
Watson vs. Indianapolis
Rivers’ worst game of the season came at the hands of the
Ravens at Stub Hub center in Week 16. The veteran QB threw for
just 181 yards and two interceptions, as Baltimore upset the Chargers
as part of their playoff push. I think the Chargers are the better
team and will prevail in their matchup, but I want no part of
this game for DFS purposes as it could be the lowest-scoring contests
of the weekend.
Most people anticipate that the Bears will try to take advantage
of the numerous injuries to the Eagles secondary and attack Philly
with the pass. While I do anticipate Matt Nagy will try to exploit
the weakness of his opponent, I also believe he knows the limitations
of his own quarterback and will try to run the ball early and
often. I also like the Bears running game now that stud run-blocking
guard Kyle Long is back from injury and ready to boost the Chicago
ground attack. For these reasons, I like Howard as a cash game
player who will get at least 15 carries this weekend with the
upside of reaching the end zone for the fourth-straight week.
I am going with Cohen in GPP and Howard in cash as I try to get
a part of the Bears offense against the Eagles. Cohen’s
ability to dominate in the passing game and on draw plays and
misdirection makes him a strong play against an aggressive Eagles
defense. Only the Falcons have allowed more receptions out of
the backfield to opposing running backs this season than the Eagles,
making Cohen an excellent start in DK based on the full PPR scoring.
Gordon has not looked right since returning to the field after
sustaining a knee injury against the Cardinals. Gordon doesn’t
have the same burst or lateral movement that he displayed most
of the season. Although he did score against the Ravens when the
two teams faced off Week 16, he will be hard pressed to put up
enough fantasy points to justify his high salary against a Baltimore
team that allows the second-fewest points to opposing RBs.
A primary beneficiary of Andrew Luck’s big games against
the Texans was wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. The speedy No.1 target
for Luck in the passing game hauled in nine catches for 199 yards
when the two teams faced off ant NRG Stadium Week 14. Although
Hilton is questionable with an ankle injury, I anticipate that
he will play against the Texans and post another 100-yard performance.
I typically like to use Hilton in GPP based on his boom or bust
production over the years, but when he plays the Texans, I am
all in with pairing him in cash with Luck.
Finding inexpensive wide receiver plays in GPP on small slates
like Wild Card playoff week can be tough, as there is a much smaller
player pool to pick from and most players will have a high ownership
level. One upside player who may have a small ownership percentage
is Dontrelle Inman, a journeyman wide receiver who has quietly
become one of Andrew Luck’s favorite red zone targets at
wide receiver.
Inman has a touchdown in each of his last two games to go along
with 113 yards and nine receptions. The volume will not be there
for Inman, but he does have a decent chance of another receiving
touchdown with the Texans placing most of their focus on stopping
T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron.
Allen put up a respectable 5/58 line against the Ravens two weeks
ago at Stub Hub center and is always a threat for a big game.
But in a game that looks to be a low scoring affair with the Ravens
using their suffocating defense and grueling ground attack to
shorten the game and control time of possession, I can’t see Allen
posting huge numbers against cornerback Jimmy Smith and the Ravens.
While some may view Allen as a contrarian play with low ownership,
I view him as an overpriced wide receiver who will struggle to
return value on his hefty salary.
Tight End
H2H/Cash - Eric Ebron @ Houston - $5,200
Two of the top fantasy tight ends are playing this week with
Eric Ebron taking on the Texans and Zach Ertz playing against
the Bears. With Houston allowing the second-most points to opposing
tight ends and Chicago ranking in the bottom quarter, Ebron clearly
has the better matchup of the two and the one I would target for
safety in a cash game.
This recommendation comes with a huge asterisk, as the Chargers
have not cleared Henry to play and they are coy about his availability
on Sunday. At just $2,500, Henry is a massive value as a favorite
red zone target for Philip Rivers. Even if Henry plays only a
fraction of the snaps, he could be active in the red zone and
return value well above his cost. If he is not active, owners
will need to pivot to Dallas Goedert or one of the Ravens tight
ends like Mark Andrews or Hayden Hurst.
Injuries to the secondary in Philadelphia turned an excellent
Eagles group of defensive backs into one of the worst in the league.
The Eagles ended the season allowing the fourth-most points to
opposing wide receivers and the ninth-most to opposing quarterbacks.
One area they are not weak against is tight ends, with no opposing
tight ends topping 100 yards receiving and only two TEs managed
to score a touchdown.
Defense & Special Teams
High Priced Option Worthy of the Cost:
Ravens ($3,000) vs. Chargers
Well Priced with Upside: Eagles ($2,200) vs.
Bears:
