Kansas City second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes (30.9 FPts/G)
received all the media hype and attention in 2018 for good reason.
In every fantasy leagues I won last year, he was my quarterback.
Ben Roethlisberger (26.3 FPts/G) finished second (for those who
started at least 10 games) behind Mahomes and he too was frequently
in the news because of his arm and his mouth. But rather quietly,
Matt Ryan (4,923-35-7) finished third and 2019 will be his year
Reason No. 1 – Both Mahomes (5,097-50-12) and
Roethlisberger (5,129-34-16) will produce significantly less in
2019. Mahomes is sure to be missing his No. 1 target and favorite
Hill (87-1,479-12), who led the league in FPts/G at 15.1 for
a large portion of the season due to off-the-field issues. His
receiving corps; Travis
Kelce at tight end, Sammy
Watkins and rookie Mecole
Hardman doesn’t sound nearly as dangerous or explosive without
the “home run” threat from Hill.
For Roethlisberger, he will be without superstar wideout Antonio
Brown (104-1,297-15) for the first time since 2011 (he wasn’t
a superstar in his 2010 rookie season). Brown was second to Hill
in FPts/G at a 14.6 last year. Now he’s in Oakland. We know
JuJu Smith-Schuster (111-1,426-7) can perform when all defensive
eyes are on Brown, but what we don’t know is if Smith-Schuster
can be as productive in a “starring role.” And who
will take over as No. 2? James Washington (16-217-1)? Eli Rogers
(12-79-0)? Or perhaps Toledo rookie Diontae Johnson? Until we
know their No. 2 wideout can produce, Big Ben’s numbers
are likely to take a big hit.
Reason No. 2 – In Atlanta, the Falcons will
bring back their receiving corps in tact; superstar Julio
Jones (113-1,676-8), possession guy Mohamed
Sanu (66-838-4), youngster Calvin
Ridley (64-821-10) and tight end Austin
Hooper (71-660-4). Jones has produced at least 1,400 yards
in five consecutive seasons and there is no reason to think he
can’t do it again in 2019. Sanu’s yardage total was the best of
his career, but it wasn’t anything that he can’t reproduce. Rookie
Ridley exploded onto the scene with 264 yards and six touchdowns
in a three-game stretch early in the season (games 2-4) but can
certainly be more consistent throughout 2019.
Reason No. 3 – Falcons’ management has made
a concerted effort to give Ryan (26.0 FPts/G) even more time to
throw by using its first two picks in the 2019 draft on the OL
(Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary). They were a decent line in
2018 with Football Outsiders ranking them 14th in pass protection
while Pro Football Focus ranked them fifth in pass efficiency
yielding 148 pressures in 676 pass-blocking snaps, but if Ryan
is going to throw the ball close to 700 times again it’s imperative
to keep him upright and healthy. These additions should help.
Reason No. 4 – With the running back tandem
Freeman and Tevin
Coleman reduced to Freeman and Ito
Smith (who is returning from a knee scope in the offseason),
Atlanta will not want to overuse Freeman. Which likely means the
Atlanta offense will likely be dropping back more than the 676
times they did in 2018.
Reason No. 5 – Opposing defenses in their division
weren’t good against the pass. That shouldn’t change much in 2019.
Division opponents, Carolina, Tampa Bay and New Orleans yielded
96 touchdown passes and 12,300 passing yards last season. All
four teams in the division, including the Falcons, ranked in the
bottom 10 for QB fantasy points allowed per game (Atlanta 25.8,
New Orleans 25.2, Tampa Bay 24.6 and Carolina 22.9). Meaning at
least six shootouts for the Falcons. Add in games against subpar
pass defenses in Houston (17th), San Francisco (19th) and Philadelphia
(ranked 24th) and Ryan has a favorable matchup in over half his
Given these five reasons, Ryan should be better than both Mahomes
He should also be better than Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck,
who finished fourth in 2018. The improvement of running back Marlon Mack will take a toll on Luck’s fantasy production. In fact,
it already did last season! In 2018, when Mack had a big day,
Luck’s numbers dropped significantly. In the five games
when Mack produced at least 100 yards rushing, Luck’s production
dropped from 26.4 FPts/G to 21.9 FPts/G. Mack is the undisputed
No. 1 guy in Indy as they didn’t do much to bolster their
running back depth in the offseason. They didn’t draft a
running back and added only journeyman Spencer Ware to Nyheim
Hines and Jordan Wilkins.
Deshaun Watson is also talented enough to lead the fantasy world
in scoring … should he be able to stay healthy for all 16
games. Right now, that seems unlikely based on past history. He
managed seven games in his rookie season and while he played all
16 last season he took a beating. After overcoming his ACL injury
from 2017, he dealt with shoulder and chest injuries last season.
The chest injury was so bad that in Week 7 the Texans wouldn't
let him on a plane, instead sending him on a 12-hour bus ride
to Jacksonville. Watson was sacked a league-high 62 times in 2019.
He also rushed 99 times. That’s a lot of hits. My concern
(read skepticism) for his ability to stay healthy and produce
for 16 games means not believing he can outscore Ryan for the
Could someone else possibly jump up and have a “career
year”? Aaron Rodgers is capable (if he can find a time machine
to go back to 2011,) Carson Wentz could reproduce his MVP-type
13 games from 2017 for a full season or rising star Baker Mayfield
could pull a “Mahomes”, but I like Ryan’s odds
over all of them.