“Three things cannot be hidden: the sun, the moon and
the truth.” (Buddha)
1) Injuries and weekly player status
will be harder to predict in 2016 due to the league’s change
in reporting.
The NFL official Injury Report Policy has changed and teams now
report game status as: Out (will not play), Doubtful (unlikely to
play) and Questionable (uncertain if a player will play). There
is no longer a probable tag, as it has been combined with questionable.
Welcome to the Thunderdome, b***h! Fantasy owners will need to be
prepared to spend more “quality time” with their lineups
about an hour before kickoff, to make last-minute changes.
2) Waivers after the first weekend are
the most important of the season.
If you are in a league with a waiver claim budget, this is the week
to use as much as needed to get “your target.” After
the first games are played, muddled running back situations usually
become clearer, favorite receivers become more obvious and Week
1 injuries allow replacements the most opportunities over the remainder
of the season. In the following weeks, the best waiver claims are
mostly injury related. Don’t ignore/forget this important
step.
3) Rookies can make an immediate impact.
Most theories hold that rookies earn more responsibilities and opportunities
as the season progresses, but that doesn’t mean a few can’t help
you right from the start. Ezekiel
Elliott is an obvious choice to start right from Opening Day,
but I’m also leaning toward Tennessee’s wideout Tajae
Sharpe, Cincinnati’s Tyler
Boyd and Cleveland’s Corey
Coleman as viable options. The Titans cut Justin
Hunter and traded Dorial
Green-Beckham which should allow for Sharpe to be Marcus
Mariota’s top wideout target. Boyd should have early season
value as the No. 2 receiving target behind A.J.
Green after offseason losses of Mohamed
Sanu and Marvin Jones and until TE Tyler
Eifert returns from his injury. Coleman is the Browns’ best
receiver … at least until Josh
Gordon returns from suspension.
4) Be careful about overvaluing preseason
production.
Vanilla defenses and production against players now on the practice
squad or unemployed can be deceiving.
The league’s preseason rushing leader, Mack Brown of Washington,
was waived. The Eagles best preseason receiver, Paul Turner, is
now on their practice squad. And although Dak
Prescott looked very good in preseason (39-of-50 for 454 yards,
5 TDs, 0 INTs, two rushing TDs) be careful not to expect too much
when they start playing for real and confusing the youngster with
multiple defenses and blitzes.
5) Tempo changes can be an important
factor.
More plays mean more opportunities and similarly fewer plays mean
less chances to shine. The Eagles under Chip Kelly averaged 1,094
plays per season. Doug Pederson in his three seasons as the Kansas
City Chiefs OC averaged 982 plays per season. Fantasy owners must
reduce Eagles player values. Conversely, the Buccaneers are expected
to play more up tempo under OC Dirk Koetter, therefore fantasy owners
should add value to Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson
and Doug Martin.
Strong Start: Matt Ryan has averaged 375
yards and 2.5 TDs in Week 1 over the last two seasons.
Lies
“I love listening to lies when I know the truth.”
Unknown author.
1) Defenses are ahead of offenses at the start of the season and
it takes time for the passing game to get its timing down.
Despite the lack of playing time in the preseason for most starters
league-wide, it appears that offenses are plenty ready at the first
whistle. Over the past five seasons, more quarterbacks have thrown
for 300 yards in Week 1 (51) than any other week of the year.
300-Yard Passing
Games
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2015
6
7
12
6
8
10
5
10
9
9
2
11
7
7
7
7
9
2014
10
2
6
9
7
10
4
9
7
6
7
7
8
9
5
11
6
2013
12
11
7
9
8
4
6
5
8
3
6
6
9
7
8
3
6
2012
9
9
8
14
6
11
5
6
5
7
7
10
7
4
6
9
3
2011
14
9
11
10
6
6
3
5
5
7
4
7
6
6
7
6
9
total
51
38
44
48
35
41
23
35
34
32
26
41
37
33
33
36
33
2) If quarterbacks are throwing that
much in Week 1 one would expect a corresponding explosion from receivers
in the opening week too. Mostly false.
There have been a total of 60 100-yard receiving games in Week 1
over the past five season, but that’s just tied for sixth-best.
Weeks 2 (77) and 3 (75) are best for the receiving bonus.
100-Yard Receiving
Games
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
2015
9
17
19
7
9
18
8
13
14
13
11
12
16
13
12
12
13
2014
9
8
13
13
9
14
13
17
11
15
12
11
15
16
10
11
9
2013
19
19
13
15
13
10
11
7
14
13
12
12
12
13
9
7
7
2012
10
14
13
18
11
10
6
9
10
10
7
12
13
15
9
13
12
2011
13
19
17
15
13
8
7
7
10
8
10
9
9
11
9
11
16
total
60
77
75
68
55
60
45
53
59
59
52
56
65
68
49
54
57
3) Box scores can lie.
Don’t just check the box scores on players coming back from major
injury - make sure to actually watch the action. Why? Coaches may
“baby” their stars and limit their touches or plays for the first
few games and you may get the wrong idea about the long-term usage
by the starters and backups. Here are a number of guys to pay particular
attention to; Le’Veon
Bell, Jamaal
Charles, Arian
Foster, Thomas
RawlsKelvin
Benjamin, Julian
Edelman and Jordy
Nelson.
4) Back in June I wrote a
piece that suggested you should avoid 30-year-old running
backs because their numbers decline when they hit the big “3-0.”
Even in decline, I’d be happy to start Adrian
Peterson in my lineup (averaged 5.26 yards per touch up to
29-years old and 4.78 last season while leading the league in
rushing). The addition of Sam
Bradford to the Vikings roster, while not going to make the
quarterback fantasy worthy, should be enough of a passing threat
to keep defenses from putting eight men in the box (Note: I don’t
expect Bradford to know the offense well enough to start in Week
1).
5) DeAndre Hopkins will repeat his
2015 statistics (111 rec, 1521 yards, 11 TDs).
I have three reasons I think those numbers are unobtainable for
2016. Hopkins’ catch percentage was a very low 57.8%, the lowest
among anyone in the top-15 - meaning he’s target-dependent to
reach his goals. This is an issue because the addition of first-rounder
Will
Fuller and third-rounder Braxton
Miller could eat into his 192 targets of a season ago. The
second reason is signing of running back Lamar
Miller, a player with very good hands, who gives quarterback
Brock
Osweiler a third new option. The final reason is Osweiler
himself. I’m not sold he’s anything more than a “game manager.”
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.
