DraftKings

Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player, followed by his projected point total. Each position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total

Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers and tight ends:
P Yds - Passing Yards
P TD - Passing Touchdowns
INT - Interceptions
Ru Yds - Rushing Yards
Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns
Rec Yds - Receiving Yards
Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns
Rec - Receptions

It is difficult to read too much into Stafford's performances in his two meetings against the Seahawks this season. The first matchup (in Week 11) was a Rams home win in a game they could have easily lost despite being on the right side of a plus-three turnover differential. It was one of the few times all season in which Stafford attempted fewer than 30 passes, which partially explains why he only threw for 130 yards. However, do not let the failures of Sam Darnold (four interceptions) in that particular contest change the narrative of what actually happened that day: the Seahawks played well enough to win, especially on defense. Their goal this week will be to do many of the things they did in that game while also trying to minimize how often they have to throw. The second meeting (Week 16) was one the Rams had no business losing, giving up three touchdowns and three two-point conversions over the last eight minutes of regulation and 6:47 of overtime to drop a 38-37 decision. (That game was played in some rain with a game-time temperature of 52° and a 16 MPH wind, for what it's worth.) While it certainly did not hurt Stafford's cause that he attempted a season-high 49 passes, the Seahawks seemed powerless at times trying to slow him down (457 yards passing and three touchdowns).

Three common threads in the two meetings: Stafford did not take a sack. He did not throw an interception either, but he also failed to complete 60 percent of his passes in both games. I highlight these three areas for one primary reason: if there is an offense that has proven that it can solve Seattle's defense, it is Sean McVay's group. With that said, do not expect great efficiency from Stafford this week. In the eight games that starting quarterbacks failed to complete 60 percent of their passes against the Seahawks, five of them have happened since Week 9 (including both games versus the Rams). All of this is to say that while Stafford is understandably the highest-priced quarterback on the board this week, he is a bet on volume against a defense that has not been a great matchup for quarterbacks.

Drake Maye - What approach does New England take against Denver this week? Go pass-heavy against arguably the best pass defense in the league (league-low 4.8 net yards per pass attempt during the regular season) that has recorded 71 sacks in 18 games and has allowed Maye to be sacked 57 times in 19 contests? Or do the Patriots grind it out as long as possible to avoid that and take their chances that a Jarrett Stidham-led offense cannot score more than 10-13 points at home? It makes for a fascinating discussion on any number of levels and certainly for those of us on the DFS streets. It seems counterintuitive to rely LESS on a second-year quarterback who is one of the two top candidates for league MVP and instead rely on a running back with a history of ball security issues (Rhamondre Stevenson) and a rookie (TreVeyon Henderson) who has struggled to hit the big play for more than a month and isn't being used very often as a receiver lately. On the other hand, Maye has taken 10 sacks, thrown two interceptions and fumbled six times (three lost) in two playoff games. Can the Broncos honestly expect to score more than 20 points unless they get a defensive touchdown? If not, why tempt fate by putting it in the hands MORE OFTEN of the one player who has proven he could allow that to happen?

The Patriots obviously cannot stray too far from the model that got them to the AFC Championship either. Maye has not attempted 30 passes in the last four games, in part because the defense has not allowed more than 16 points and Stevenson has run the ball well during that stretch. Maye can obviously help in that regard as well with six games of at least 40 yards rushing this season. The fact that he is the only quarterback left in the pool who offers much in the way of upside as a runner gives him a chance at being worth his price tag in DFS. The problem with that is we need him to be more like his regular-season self and not someone who just climbs over 200 yards passing with one touchdown and a meager amount of rushing yards.

Jarrett Stidham - I intend to enter the most lineups I ever have in DFS this week. Stidham will probably not appear on more than five percent of them. The last time he played any meaningful football was in Week 18 of the 2023 season. The best game of his NFL career came the previous year, as he stunned a playoff-bound San Francisco defense with three touchdown passes in a 37-34 overtime loss to the 49ers in his first start of the season following an injury to Derek Carr. HC Sean Payton has been a big fan of his since then (and perhaps before), which is a big part of the reason why he has served as Payton's primary backup quarterback in every one of Payton's three seasons with the club. We know the possibility exists that he could throw for multiple touchdowns because he has already done so in one of his four career starts.

The problem with putting much faith in him is that C.J. Stroud became the first quarterback since Week 10 to throw for more than 200 yards versus the Patriots (and that came with four interceptions). Josh Allen (three touchdowns in Week 15) is the only quarterback since Justin Fields in Week 11 to account for more than one score against New England. While it needs to be noted that the Patriots have not exactly faced a who's who of quarterbacks lately, Stidham is among the least accomplished of that group. It might be a different story if he offered much of a run threat, but he does not. (He ran for at least 34 yards in two of his career starts, for what it is worth.) He has done enough in the box score in each of his four starts (at least 200 yards passing and a touchdown in each one) to warrant punt status in DFS. However, the Patriots will be the best defense he has faced and the AFC Championship is a much different stage than the meaningless Week 17 and Week 18 starts he was making for the Raiders and Broncos at the end of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Sam Darnold - One could make the assertion that Seattle has been trying to hide Darnold as much during its eight-game winning streak as it has asked him to manage each game. (One simple stat that reflects this notion: he has thrown for only nine TDs during the streak.) Then again, it would also be fair to say the running game and defense have been operating at such a high level that he has not been needed to do much. What seems clear this weekend is that he will be needed to contribute in a meaningful way if the Seahawks are going to win the rubber match of this NFC West series. Nearly half of Darnold's interceptions this year (six of 14) came in two games against Los Angeles, which obviously does not bode well for anyone having much optimism in his ability to be the difference - in a positive way - for the Seahawks.

Working in his favor has been the gradual demise of the Rams' defense, specifically against the run. (I will discuss this more in the next section.) Los Angeles gave up half of its passing touchdowns over the final six weeks of the regular-season (13 of 26) despite facing the likes of Bryce Young (twice), Jacoby Brissett (twice), Jared Goff, Darnold and Kirk Cousins. Mac Jones (twice) and Jalen Hurts were the only quarterbacks to account for more than two touchdowns against this defense before Week 13. If we include the playoffs, Cousins is the only one who hasn't since. The Rams will have their hands full trying to contain the Seahawks' improved rushing attack, so they won't have the luxury of rushing four and playing seven very often unless they jump out to an early lead. As a result, I am willing to give Darnold a puncher's chance of being the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate this week if he can finally get a bead on DC Chris Shula's defense.

Kenneth Walker - If it had to happen, Zach Charbonnet's ACL injury came about two months too late for most of Walker's fantasy managers. The funny thing about Walker's 145-yard, three-touchdown performance last week is that his two best fantasy efforts since September had come against the Rams (111 total yards and a touchdown in Week 11 and 164 total yards and a touchdown in Week 16). In the 11 other games he played during the regular season since Week 4, Walker averaged 66.5 total yards and scored ZERO touchdowns. In other words, if you saw last week coming for Walker, you are a damn fool who got lucky with the Charbonnet injury or believed in the "hot hand" (133 total yards in Week 18 versus the 49ers) even though Charbonnet outscored Walker in fantasy that week and entered the game with a firm grasp on the goal-line role. None of that matters now, as Walker figures to handle the overwhelming bulk of the workload for however long Seattle remains alive. George Holani appears to be the most likely Seahawk to handle whatever work Walker doesn't, but this should be KWIII's show the rest of the way.

What has changed for Walker for him to produce as well as he has lately? As is usually the case with football, multiple factors have contributed to his rise. As mentioned earlier, Seattle has fully committed to the running game. The line is blocking better. (While yards before contact is not exclusively a line-blocking stat, Walker has been over three yards per carry before contact in three of his last four games after only hitting that mark five times prior. He topped that mark in both of his games versus the Rams, for what it is worth.) Walker is becoming a more disciplined runner and the Seahawks have involved him more in the passing game. Two good games against the Rams this year do not guarantee anything this weekend, but it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Seattle moves on to the Super Bowl and Walker is not a huge part of it happening.

Kyren Williams/Blake Corum - Corum performed too well during the regular-season to be dismissed for DFS purposes during the NFL Playoffs. With that said, it is difficult to consider him anything more than a punt play given how often he plays about a third of the snaps. He is also rarely on the field on passing downs. I will probably max out my exposure to him around 10-12 percent to prevent a repeat of what happened last week when I went all-in on Charbonnet. The problem with putting too much on Corum is that he likely needs to rush for 70 yards and a touchdown to be worth his $5,000 price tag and I don't see either of those things happening against the third-stingiest run defense in the league during the regular season. The Seahawks also allowed the fewest total touchdowns to the running back position (seven).

Barring a situation in which the Rams are in negative game script all day long (which should lead to several check-downs in theory), this week does not figure to be a ceiling game for Williams. What he has provided his fantasy managers all season, though, is a very high floor - regardless of the opponent. He ran for more yards against Seattle (91 yards in Week 11) than any other player this season and handled 26 touches in the second meeting five weeks later. Williams has been trusted with 13 touches in every outing this season and is coming off a 25-touch outing in Chicago - one shy of the season high he set in the Week 16 loss to the Seahawks. Los Angeles has consistently stuck to the run, even on the rare occasion it has not been working. Williams may be a volume-based floor play this week - which is not exactly ideal when the running back is the highest-priced one available - but he is also the least likely one to disappoint his managers as well.

Rhamondre Stevenson/TreVeyon Henderson - I highlighted the dilemma of these two backs above when discussing Drake Maye. The first question that needs to be addressed is how the Patriots intend to attack offensively. Do they rely heavily on Maye to jump out to an early lead and force Jarrett Stidham to try and beat them? Or do they try to ride the running game while Maye regains some confidence with all of the sacks he has taken and turnovers he has been responsible for during the playoffs? My bet will be on the latter, if only because the Denver defense is so good at rushing the passer. I am not sure there is a certain style that is better suited for running on the Broncos. However, it may not be a coincidence that Jonathan Taylor, Omarion Hampton, Josh Jacobs, Cam Skattebo and Javonte Williams are the five backs who have scored the most fantasy points against them this season. All of them are powerful backs who also contribute in the passing game. While Henderson can run with power, recent history obviously favors Stevenson as the type of back who is more likely to succeed against Denver.

For all we know, Stevenson and Henderson could be this week's Walker and Charbonnet. One of them gets hurt and the other one explodes, sending the DFS players who went heavy on the wrong one into a panic and leaving the other ones rejoicing. For each of the last five weeks, the right choice in this backfield has been Stevenson. Denver's recent history against bigger backs would suggest Stevenson is the play again this week, as would the usage. The veteran holds a 33-23 advantage in touches during the playoffs, including a 7-2 edge in catches. For a team that will probably play this game as conservatively as one would expect a Mike Vrabel-led team to play, I would expect to have twice as much exposure to Stevenson as Henderson. (Imagine saying that a month or two ago.) Another problem with anyone backing Henderson this week is that he has given us so little to hang our hopes on lately. Yes, he has scored at least two touchdowns in four games since the start of November. It is also true that those are the only games in which he has reached the end zone. He has failed to post two receptions or 10 receiving yards in five straight as well.

RJ Harvey/J.K. Dobbins - Make no mistake about it, the Broncos made it to the AFC Championship in spite of their rushing attack, not because of it. Harvey has been productive as a receiver and touchdown scorer and was certainly a fantasy force over the second half of his rookie season, which means he fulfilled some of the promise that made HC Sean Payton gush about him last spring. As a lead running back, however, it has been more bad than good since Dobbins was injured in Week 10. Harvey is averaging 3.4 yards per carry behind mostly the same line that helped Dobbins average 5.0. Harvey was drafted to bring a big-play element to the running game; he has exactly nine explosive runs (10-plus yards) on 152 carries, including one of more than 15 yards since Oct. 26. While some of the blame should be placed on an offensive line that has failed to block as well as it could have for him, Harvey's two-month run as the lead back suggests he may be better suited for a 1B role for the foreseeable future.

Does that mean Dobbins is the 1A, particularly this week following such a long layoff? Not necessarily, primarily because of how much time he has missed. If there is a player we have learned not to doubt following a serious injury, though, it might be Dobbins. With that said, New England has proven to be a bear against the run in just about every game it has had a healthy Milton Williams. Making matters worse this week is the likelihood that the Patriots will sell out to stop the run and try to make Stidham beat them. Asking Dobbins to handle 15 touches right away after such a long layoff is one thing. Asking him to do it against a very good run defense that will be expecting a heavy dose of the ground game because the (new) quarterback does not scare anyone is another thing entirely. I will have Dobbins in a few lineups, only because he does have theoretical 15-touch upside in this game and comes at a low cost ($4,000). I will also have some exposure to Harvey because there is a world where he catches 6-8 passes this weekend. However, counting on either one as a lineup staple is a losing proposition.

Rams receivers - My mistake regarding Puka Nacua's huge projection last week was not accounting enough for the weather. It appears the conditions will not be nearly as much of a factor in the NFC Championship. Barring something that borders on the bizarre, the Seahawks probably will not have much choice but to do their best to limit what Nacua does after the catch because they have not enjoyed much success in limiting his ability to get open and make catches (19 catches on 24 targets for 300 yards and two touchdowns) in their two meetings. Nacua's $9,000 price tag should keep his ownership somewhat reasonable this week, so the question with him this week is if HC Sean McVay continues to funnel him targets all over the field regardless of the presence of red zone fiend Davante Adams - as he did against Carolina in the Wild Card Round - or reverts to his usage of Nacua before Davante Adams' Week 15 hamstring injury. I will probably limit my exposure to him to around 60 percent, but there is no question in my mind that he can live up to his price tag and then some if the Rams want to force the issue with him.

I will not pretend to understand why Adams seems to be such an afterthought in the offense so far this postseason. He has yet to see a target in the first quarter in either of the games and has been thrown to only seven times in the first half. While I will acknowledge that his matchups on the perimeter are usually more difficult than the ones Nacua faces when he moves inside, Adams is still much too skilled at getting open regardless of his individual matchup or the type of coverage he is facing. We don't have nearly as much information regarding how Adams will fare in this matchup as we do with every other Ram because he missed the Week 16 matchup. All we have is the Week 11 meeting, when he somehow managed to catch only one of eight targets (for a 1-yard touchdown). Tariq Woolen was his primary matchup in that game and will probably be his primary defender in this matchup as well. It makes more sense for Woolen to use his 6-4, 205-pound frame against the smooth-and-silky Adams (as opposed to the more physical Nacua). Even with Woolen playing well and being one of the few corners in the league who can legitimately keep Adams from scoring near the goal line, it would be a mistake if the Rams do not try to get the 33-year-old going sooner than they have during the playoffs.

Seahawks receivers - While I believe I have learned my lesson of completely disregarding any key player in an offense, I will have a hard time playing any receiver not named Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this passing game this week. Seattle shockingly targeted Cooper Kupp early last week, which allowed him to post a double-digit fantasy total for only the second time since Week 6. Negative game script (the Seahawks' last two losses) led to two of Kupp's highest target totals this season, but I'm not in the business of putting a lot of faith into a receiver that has greatly outperformed his DFS price point once in 17 games this season. While I could be more inclined to roll the dice on Rashid Shaheed since he can score on special teams and only needs one deep shot to be a good DFS play, Seattle has not used him nearly as often offensively as most expected since he was acquired in early November. Worse yet, he is more expensive than Kupp ($3,800) at $4,100.

This brings us back to Smith-Njigba. Unlike the Seahawks (who have multiple studs at cornerback), the Rams have no one in their secondary who represents more than a speedbump for JSN. If you need proof, look no further than what he did in the first two games versus the Rams (9-105-0 and 8-96-1). If you need more proof, look no further than what Los Angeles has given up to big and/or good perimeter receivers since Week 12:

Jalen Coker - 4-74-1 in Week 13 and 9-134-1 in the Wild Card Round
Michael Wilson - 11-142-2 in Week 14 and 5-99-1 in Week 18
Amon-Ra St. Brown/Jameson Williams - 13-164-2 and 7-134-1 in Week 15
Smith-Njigba - 8-96-1 in Week 16

Game script and Kenneth Walker's ability to continue lighting up the Rams will determine what JSN's ceiling will be this week. I imagine he will be in more of my lineups than Nacua since he is $1,000 cheaper, although it would not surprise me at all if both of them appear in more than half of my entries. There is such a vast difference between their ceiling and just about every other player on the board (regardless of position).

Note: I am not sure either game ends up being a shootout, but I feel much more confident Rams-Seahawks will offer more offensive fireworks than the Broncos-Patriots, so most of the receivers I use will likely come from this game.

Broncos receivers - Courtland Sutton ($5,700) was already going to be a player I was not going to have much exposure even with a healthy Bo Nix, but I cannot imagine him appearing in more than five percent of my lineups with Jarrett Stidham as his quarterback. Sutton would likely be Stidham's favorite target under most circumstances, but the receiver will likely have the unenviable task of trying to shake Christian Gonzalez's shadow coverage. Based on early practice reports, Pat Bryant (suffered his second concussion in about a month last week) appears more likely to play than Troy Franklin (hamstring). If this ends up playing out as it appears it will, I will have no problem using Bryant or Marvin Mims - in that order - as my low-cost WR3 in the majority of my Nacua-JSN lineups. With Sutton likely in for a long day, I feel confident one of Denver's secondary receivers will lead the team in receiving versus New England. What that actually means with Stidham under center is another story. I am reasonably confident Denver will score at least one touchdown in this contest, but I would bet against two.

Patriots receivers - There is no guarantee that Stidham will make any Bronco pass-catcher viable this week. The problem for managers when it comes to the Patriots is that any one of five wideouts could end up being the best DFS play, and that assumes Mack Hollins (abdomen) remains on IR. Stefon Diggs ($5,800) would be the best bet to make under most circumstances, but he is far too expensive for a player who lacks multi-touchdown upside - especially one tied to an offense that may not throw it more than 20 times. Although Kayshon Boutte ($4,500) beat Derek Stingley Jr. for a big-play touchdown last week, he seems like the most likely New England receiver to face Pat Surtain II most of the day. There does not seem to be much rhyme or reason when Demario Douglas ($3,600) is going to be a factor. Kyle Williams ($3,500) has flashed big-play potential multiple times this season, but he has managed only two multi-catch games as a rookie so far. Although Efton Chism ($3,000) has produced a 20-yard catch or better in each of his three games with one reception, he is coming off a game in which he was not targeted. He is also playing less than a third of the offensive snaps during the playoffs.

As one of the most blitz-happy defenses in the league with a pair of good cornerbacks, it makes perfect sense why the Broncos tend to give up big games to the tight end - especially those who are not seam stretchers. However, we need to ask ourselves the same question with Henry as we do with virtually every other Patriot pass-catcher this weekend: Will there be enough volume for any of them? Henry needs to be in lineups this week, if only because he has proven he can return some value. There is a lack of inspiring options at his position after the first two or three.

Colby Parkinson/Terrance Ferguson/Tyler Higbee - Any of these three could hit this weekend considering how often the Rams are using 13 personnel (three tight ends), but the only one I will have much faith in rivaling Hunter Henry is Parkinson. Of course, the only time Parkinson has disappointed fantasy managers over the last two months was the one time he was expected to smash the most - in Week 16 versus the Seahawks. Then again, he could be forgiven a bit in that game since Puka Nacua was busy drawing 16 of Matthew Stafford's 49 targets. Seattle also has the personnel at safety to shut down tight ends; it is more a combination of the Seahawks' coverage schemes and pass rush that makes their tight end coverage suffer at times. The Rams also did not have Davante Adams in that contest, which likely gave Seattle the push it needed to use Nick Emmanwori as often as it wanted to on Parkinson.

With that said, I am willing to get hurt again. I will have some exposure to Terrance Ferguson because he is the most talented tight end of this trio and only needs to catch one of the 1-2 deep targets he should see on Sunday to pay off at his $2,700 price tag. He is also the only other Los Angeles tight end besides Parkinson to contribute in a major way during a meaningful game over the last month or two. I will have much more exposure to Parkinson at $3,500, however. While he has occasionally put up a dud since going on a touchdown binge starting around Week 10, the aforementioned Seattle game was the only time he truly disappointed. Parkinson has regularly attracted seven targets during this stretch and appears to be Stafford's second-favorite red zone target most of the time. When you consider he has scored all nine of his touchdowns this season over the last 11 games, he is easily the best bet of the tight end group to far exceed his cost.

AJ Barner - Barner feels like a complete wildcard this week, especially for a player who caught 52 passes and scored six times during the regular season. He has become more of an afterthought in recent weeks, providing fantasy managers with only three meaningful performances during the second half of the season. Of course, his two best efforts over that time came in the two games versus the Rams (10-70-0 in Week 11 and 4-49-1 in Week 16). Do with that information what you will, but I am not sold that he will be worth his $4,000 price tag this weekend just because he did well against the Rams in both of the previous meetings. While he will likely be the tight end I have the second-most exposure to as a lower-cost alternative to Henry (Parkinson will be the highest), I can also envision a scenario in which he is needed to block more often - especially if LT Charles Cross (foot) is limited in any way or ruled out - and Elijah Arroyo (knee) comes off IR and has a big day.

Evan Engram - About the only hope fantasy managers can have with Engram at this point is that the new quarterback (Jarrett Stidham) leans heavily on him because Sean Payton wants to get the ball out of Stidham's hands as quickly as possible. Otherwise, we are talking about a player who has topped 10 fantasy points twice all season and scored only one touchdown. I am still dumbfounded as to why the Broncos made such a play for him in free agency if they did not intend to make him a full-time player, but here we are. Perhaps I could muster more enthusiasm for him in DFS if he was priced closer to $2,500, but his $3,300 price tag is too close to another player who has actual upside and is not also playing with a backup quarterback (Parkinson). I am sure I will have about five percent exposure to him, but it feels like lighting money on fire with him at this point.

Key for defense/special teams units:
Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
TO - Total turnovers forced
TD - Defensive/return touchdowns