One of my many complaints about the fantasy industry is how much
of it is focused on what has already happened. Yes, it is important
to discuss the past so we can prepare better for the future. With
that said, the best fantasy players tend to be the ones who can
predict what is going to happen next the best, not the ones who
remember the most stats or push the most advanced analytics.
YOU HAVE TO BE WILLING TO BE WRONG (A LOT) TO BE GOOD
AT FANTASY FOOTBALL.
To that end, I like to devote at least one column per season
to longshot players who are widely available in most leagues.
There is a good chance none of the 12 players I discuss will "hit"
this year and be the league-winner we all seek about this time
of year. What I can do, however, is familiarize you with some
of them now. Maybe that familiarity will lead to you using your
last roster spot on a stash-worthy player who is next week's waiver-wire
darling. At the very least, you can save yourself some FAAB. In
a best-case scenario, he steps right into your starting lineup
in Week 11 and remains there.
To be clear, I am highlighting players who could be useful over
the second half of the season and are owned in less than 20 percent
owned in ESPN leagues. (The only reason I am using ESPN roster
numbers is that they are easy to find.) The goal here is not finding
potential league-winners. Several of these players will already
be owned because they have already had big games recently or are
about to step into a prominent role. Most of them can be had for
a song via trade, however, assuming they are not sitting on the
waiver wire.
Note: Because the running back position
is a different animal - opportunity means just as much, if not
more, than talent in many cases - I will be putting them into
a separate group after I am done discussing the other positions.
Here are 12 players to consider adding in deeper leagues:
It was surprising to learn that Washington is sitting on the
waiver wire in five of every six leagues. While it is true he
is more of a PPR scam - and a low-end one at that - in this edition
of the Dolphins' offense, the only real encouragement fantasy
managers should need to stash him is to remember how often Jaylen
Waddle has dealt with an injury during his 4 1/2-year NFL career.
It is also easy to forget that Washington is essentially in the
same position now that Waddle has been playing second fiddle to
Tyreek Hill in recent years. Admittedly, Washington is not in
Waddle's class talent-wise, but managers need to remind themselves
that the Miami passing game is heavily reliant on Waddle and De'Von
Achane right now. I feel confident in saying that if Waddle misses
time this season - as he has in each of the last two seasons -
it will not be Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tahj Washington, Cedrick
Wilson or Dee Eskridge picking up the majority of his targets.
Say what you will about HC Mike McDaniel, but he is probably
doing a lot more with the talent he has at his disposal than most
coaches would be - especially when we consider the lack of talent
on the offensive line. In much the same way he has been able to
make sure Achane is highly involved in the passing game, he would
likely do the same for Washington if he needed to become the No.
1 receiver for a short time. The good thing about stashing Washington
right now is that Miami made sure to involve him when Hill was
still around and has increased his usage since, so he is already
a decent low-end flex option. Like it or not, he is probably an
injury to Waddle away from being a weekly low-end fantasy WR3.
It is impossible to deny that Dike has already done twice what
no other Tennessee receiver has done once lately: be relevant
in fantasy. Yes, he only managed a single catch (for five yards)
in Week 9, but he went off for a couple of 16-point fantasy games
right before that. Even in last week's dud, he was able to save
some of his fantasy managers with a 67-yard punt return touchdown.
Is it sustainable? Well, this is the Titans we are talking about,
so probably not (especially once Calvin Ridley returns from his
hamstring injury).
With that said, we are not necessarily looking for sustained
excellence from him this year so much as the ability to pop at
the right time for fantasy managers. Advanced analytics do not
tell the whole story, but it cannot be a bad thing that defenses
respect him enough to give him an average cushion of 6.9 yards
(tied with eighth in the league with such players as Chris Olave,
Wan'Dale Robinson and Troy Franklin). He is also tied for second
with Marvin Mims in creating the most separation (4.2 yards).
(Both
stats courtesy of NextGen Stats.)
Targets do not figure to be a problem with Tennessee being so
dreadful, so Dike checks the opportunity box. The Titans seem
to realize his explosiveness belongs in the slot (he has lined
up inside over 70 percent of the time in four of the last five
games). He will remain there even after Ridley returns because
Tyler Lockett is no longer around to steal snaps AND because Elic
Ayomanor and Ridley are the primary X and Z receivers in this
offense, respectively. The question that needs to be answered
with Dike is if this offense can function at a respectable level
for long enough each game to make sure Cam Ward attempts at least
30 throws. (He only had 21 in Week 9.) Dike will be hard-pressed
to make much of an impact against Houston and Seattle coming out
of the team's Week 10 bye, but Kansas City (Week 16) is the only
remaining matchup that feels overly daunting for this passing
attack. There is WR4/flex upside to be had here moving forward.
While I understand the majority of people play leagues in which
they can wait for a player to break out before they feel the urgency
to add him in fantasy, I was stunned to learn that Musgrave is
so widely available. (Then again, Mason Taylor's ownership rate
is only a couple of points lower coming off a big game followed
by a bye week, so maybe I shouldn't be all that surprised.) Let's
be clear about something right away: Musgrave is not Tucker Kraft.
He might be a better athlete overall, but he is not the well-rounded
player or YAC machine that Kraft is.
With that said, this is HC Matt LaFleur's seventh season in Green
Bay. During his time in charge, LaFleur has typically had one
tight end finish with 60-70 targets. Two years ago, the coaching
staff thought enough of Musgrave to draft him ahead of Kraft and
give him more work in 11 games (46 targets) than Kraft (40) saw
in 17 contests. Don't get it twisted; I thought Kraft was a better
and more complete prospect than Musgrave all along. What I'm about
to say is not an endorsement of Musgrave so much as it is a recognition
that he is a highly athletic player who has a great opportunity
in front of him if he can stay healthy for the first time in years.
At his best, the Oregon State product is a seam-stretcher in an
offense that desperately needs someone who can stretch the seam.
The offense will be even more reliant on Josh Jacobs and Romeo
Doubs than it already was. Christian Watson should be heavily
involved as well, but how long can we count on him staying healthy?
Here is one of Green Bay's dilemmas: Kraft (12) and Doubs (10)
lead the Packers in red zone targets. No other Green Bay player
has more than four (Savion Williams). Does this mean someone like
Dontayvion Wicks steps up in Kraft's absence? Maybe. I would bet
it is more likely that a player who possesses the same size Kraft
does will be the coaching staff's first choice, though. While
it is true that Musgrave will not see the same amount of playing
time as Kraft (he is nowhere close to being on the same level
as a blocker), I think it is reasonable to suggest he has an opportunity
to be 75 percent of what Kraft was as a pass-catcher. That should
put him squarely in the high-end TE2 conversation.
My stance on Burden remains the same as it did in the preseason:
the only thing that has really changed is the timetable for when
HC Ben Johnson unleashes him. Olamide Zaccheaus has done enough
to keep the slot job in Johnson's eyes, so it may not happen for
Burden this year. And that's OK. Good process does not always
equal good results for fantasy managers. Nevertheless, managers
should always aspire to have as many high-upside players on their
bench as possible, especially once the majority of bye weeks are
over.
Chicago's receivers have stayed healthy this season, which has
allowed Johnson to slow-play things with his second-rounder. That
is part of the reason that his Week 3 coming-out party (3-101-1)
remains the only game in which he made a significant fantasy impact.
Another unexpected occurrence is that Zaccheaus actually seems
to be earning more targets as the season progresses. Regardless,
this feels like a situation in which Burden only needs one of
D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze or Zaccheaus to go down to create the
opening he needs to solidify his place among the top three.
Expecting the Amon-Ra St. Brown scenario (when he went from a
virtual nobody in the first half of the season to a league-winner
in the second half) to play out a second time just might have
been foolish all along. Yes, Johnson was a part of both situations
and both players were drafted with an eye on being the primary
slot option in an offense that features them. However, that does
not mean something like it cannot still happen in 2025. We need
only look at what a journeyman like Zaccheaus is doing to realize
how much more is possible if the Bears allow a yard-after-catch
machine like Burden play in the same role full-time. Although
I have had to cut him in too many leagues due to bye-week crunches
and injuries, he remains one of the best upside stashes in fantasy.
About the only comment I need to make regarding Tonges is this:
he has been targeted once over the last three weeks (a 2-yard
touchdown that some believe was intended for George Kittle) and
he is still the TE20 on the season. Not only does it reinforce
how important the tight end can be in HC Kyle Shanahan's offense,
but it also proves he earned the coach's trust with his play earlier
in the season. Much like the other players on this list, Tonges
is one injury away from having a big role (again). The fact that
he has already proven he can fill in capably for Kittle makes
him the rare tight end handcuff. Especially once the bye weeks
start becoming less of an issue for fantasy managers, Tonges should
be a priority add for Kittle managers and anyone in tight end-premium
leagues.
If only because it is asking more than any player should be asked
to do during the middle of the season (learning a new playbook
well enough to carry out his assignments correctly play after
play), it is with some hesitation that I include Mitchell. With
that said, the Jets insisted that he be included in the deal that
sent Sauce Gardner to Indianapolis at the trade deadline. Why?
Maybe
they saw what the Colts saw over the last 1 1/2 years. Getting
open has rarely ever been an issue for the former University of
Texas standout, but finishing the catch has. A glass-half-full
perspective would say he is good at the most difficult part of
being an NFL receiver. Of course, no one plays in an average-yards-of-separation
fantasy league.
Why is Mitchell a player that deserves any consideration from
fantasy managers then? This is a bet-on-talent situation, largely
because that player is headed to a team that has a whole lot of
average talent in the receiver room behind Garrett Wilson. The
quarterback situation is not great either, but Justin Fields finds
himself in yet another situation in which it is difficult to assess
his talent. Is he inaccurate at times? Absolutely. Has he proven
he can help he can make a very good player look very good - if
not great? It was a while ago, but absolutely. Is Mitchell likely
to shine over the final few weeks of the season given everything
working against him right now? No.
The reasons he is worth considering - outside of the obvious
talent he brings to the table - are that New York will almost
certainly play its young guys moving forward and the lack of target
earners the Jets have after Wilson and Mason Taylor. While I would
not expect Mitchell to be worth consideration in most normal 12-team
leagues, a case could be made for him in 14-teamers or leagues
with multiple flexes.
Dulcich is not for the faint of heart. He may not even be useful
for more than two or three weeks. However, I do think he will
be useful - at least until Darren Waller returns (assuming that
happens). If this were just a matter of him having a semi-productive
game in Week 9, that would be one thing. Dulcich has been productive
before. So have the last two Dolphins' tight ends with any kind
of track record before their time in South Beach (Jonnu Smith
and Waller). Julian Hill (ankle) has been sidelined for the last
two games, which created the opening that Dulcich needed to be
elevated from the practice squad initially. Then, the Dolphins
announced they waived Tanner Conner this week, which suggests
Dulcich has earned a spot on the roster.
Bringing it back to how this affects fantasy managers, Hill is
not a huge threat in the passing game. In 2 1/2 seasons, he has
28 catches in 38 games. (Blame that on Smith and Waller to a degree,
but he would have produced more if he were a bigger threat in
the passing game.) Dulcich is the only other tight end on the
roster. As I established earlier, there is plenty of opportunity
available in Miami after De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle get their
15 or so targets each week.
In Week 9, Dulcich ran 20 routes and was targeted five times.
No one is saying he is about to take off like Smith did in 2024
or Waller did earlier this season. What I am saying is that Smith
was considered an Arthur Smith creation until he came to Miami.
Waller was retired until he wasn't. He even missed the first three
games of this season before making his splash. It would not be
a surprise if Dulcich becomes the latest one-dimensional tight
end to become a success story in this offense.
********************
Running Back Corner
I think the best way to handle the running back section is to
rank them in the order I think they would fall if they became
the bell-cow in their offense due to an injury ahead of them.
I will make some brief comments about each one before wrapping
up for the week.
It is stunning to see how low Corum's ownership percentage is.
The good news is we are already seeing Corum handle a fair amount
of work of late. (Admittedly, some of that has been a product
of how uncompetitive the Rams' last two games have been.) HC Sean
McVay's tendency to lean on one running back - along with the
complete lack of playing time he has given Jarquez Hunter in 2025
- makes it likely that Corum would be the bell-cow that Kyren
Williams has been for the last 2 1/2 seasons.
Just about everything I just said about Corum applies to Wilson
as well. While I have my doubts Wilson would be featured as much
as Corum (Chris Brooks is a trusted player in the passing game),
there is little doubt in my mind that he would see the bulk of
the workload. I would argue the thing that makes him more attractive
than Corum right now is that Josh Jacobs has been no stranger
to the injury report lately.
It took fantasy managers far too long to realize Abdullah passed
D.J. Giddens on the depth chart this season. As it turns out,
Tyler Goodson appears to have done so as well. While it seems
unlikely to matter before Week 18, fantasy owners need to remember
that Jonathan Taylor has not come close to playing a full season
since 2021. Abdullah would likely share some snaps with Goodson
if Taylor misses some time, but there is little doubt in my mind
he would be the back to own in what is arguably the best offense
in the league in 2025.
Davis showed out in his one opportunity as the featured back
last year, totaling 152 yards in a Week 6 win over the Jets. Ty
Johnson would likely see a slightly expanded role on top of his
usual part-time third-down duties, but there is little doubt in
my mind that Davis would handle a bell-cow role with aplomb.
Davis finds himself here for one major reason: Breece Hall's
contract is set to expire at the end of the season. While the
team may put the franchise or transition tag on him this offseason,
I highly doubt his preference is to sign a long-term contract
as the team enters another rebuild phase. Davis has already flashed
when given the chance, although he does not possess the upside
Hall does. However, Davis is the most likely player of the bunch
to become important before the end of the year. Why would I say
that? Would anyone be surprised if Hall decides enough is enough
in an attempt to enter free agency as healthy as possible?
While I have been a fan of Tucker for some time, the only reason
he finds himself here is that Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder) appears
unlikely to return to action coming off the team's Week 9 bye.
There has been precious little information about when he will
be ready. Although I doubt he will miss much more time, the fact
that he was not put on IR after Week 4 and remains out suggests
the team did not expect his recovery to take nearly as long as
it has. That means Tucker is one injury to Rachaad White away
from handling a massive workload.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.