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Anatomy of a League Winner - Wide Receivers


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 7/16/21 |
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs


One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's and Dalvin Cook's of the world come immediately to mind, but we need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land either one of those players.

To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided to take a position-by-position look at each player that enjoyed rarified air over the last six seasons. By using the best of the best in each position group over a six-year period as the basis for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.

There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players appearing multiple times on the list). It is also OK to view this series of articles as something of a correlational study or a series of interesting facts, but there's more value in this kind of analysis than that. My top priority is trying to establish what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position, especially considering the different styles of players that exist in the game.

Each position will be divided into multiple groups for the express purpose of challenging how you currently think about the position (and its upside). The "Rk" column to the left of each player's name is where he finished among his peers over the six years of this study. (For example, Davante Adams' 2020 season ranked fourth among all receivers in the last six years.) Receivers were split into the following groups:

Possession - 12 YPC or lower
Intermediate - 12.1-13.9 YPC
Deep Threat - 14 YPC or higher

Take note that a particular receiver may appear in multiple tables. While that may not seem ideal, receivers are often asked to assume different roles from one season to the next. Some deep threats are needed to run shorter routes due to a new quarterback's limitations, some possession receivers are freed up to run intermediate routes as the team improves protection issues and so on. I also acknowledge that while some of the observations I will make in this four-part series are somewhat obvious, they often bear repeating.

Below each table will be another table that summarizes the averages of each group as well as the group minimum and maximum. The cutoff at receiver for this study was 225 fantasy points (top 94 performances in the last six years).

 Possession Receivers (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm PPR Tgt Rec Catch % ReYds YPC ReTDs
3 Michael Thomas 2019 26 NO 374.6 185 149 80.5% 1725 11.6 9
4 Davante Adams 2020 28 GB 358.4 149 115 77.2% 1374 11.9 18
15 Michael Thomas 2018 25 NO 315.5 147 125 85.0% 1405 11.2 9
29 Larry Fitzgerald 2015 32 ARI 280.5 145 109 75.2% 1215 11.1 9
31 Jarvis Landry 2015 23 MIA 275.4 166 110 66.3% 1157 10.5 4
39 DeAndre Hopkins 2019 27 HOU 268.5 150 104 69.3% 1165 11.2 7
41 Stefon Diggs 2018 25 MIN 266.3 149 102 68.5% 1021 10.0 9
43 Tyler Lockett 2020 28 SEA 265.4 132 100 75.8% 1054 10.5 10
45 Keenan Allen 2019 27 LAC 261.5 149 104 69.8% 1199 11.5 6
46 Larry Fitzgerald 2017 34 ARI 261.4 161 109 67.7% 1156 10.6 6
49 Jarvis Landry 2017 25 MIA 260.0 161 112 69.6% 987 8.8 9
51 Michael Thomas 2017 24 NO 258.5 149 104 69.8% 1245 12.0 5
52 Julian Edelman 2019 33 NE 256.3 153 100 65.4% 1117 11.2 6
54 Allen Robinson 2019 26 CHI 254.9 154 98 63.6% 1147 11.7 7
56 Doug Baldwin 2016 28 SEA 253.6 125 94 75.2% 1128 12.0 7
68 Keenan Allen 2020 28 LAC 245.1 147 100 68.0% 992 9.9 8
69 Robert Woods 2020 28 LAR 245.1 129 90 69.8% 936 10.4 6
70 Larry Fitzgerald 2016 33 ARI 243.8 150 107 71.3% 1023 9.6 6
74 Michael Crabtree 2016 29 OAK 239.3 145 89 61.4% 1003 11.3 8
79 JuJu Smith-Schuster 2020 24 PIT 234.1 128 97 75.8% 831 8.6 9
85 Michael Crabtree 2015 28 OAK 231.2 146 85 58.2% 922 10.8 9
86 Jordan Matthews 2015 23 PHI 230.7 126 85 67.5% 997 11.7 8
89 Julian Edelman 2016 30 NE 230.3 159 98 61.6% 1106 11.3 3
92 Demaryius Thomas 2016 29 DEN 226.3 144 90 62.5% 1083 12.0 5

Rk Player Year Age Tm PPR Tgt Rec Catch % ReYds YPC ReTDs
53 Group Average   - 27.6 - 264.0 147.9 103.2 69.8% 1124.5 10.9 7.6
3 Group Minimum   - 23 - 226.3 125 85 58.2% 831 8.6 3
92 Group Maximum   - 34 - 374.6 185 149 85.0% 1725 12.0 18

Observations

Note: I acknowledge that using YPC is not the best (or most reliable) metric for determining short, intermediate and deep receivers. Unfortunately, Pro Football Reference only has average depth of target (aDOT) information dating back to 2018, which would only account for roughly half of the receivers in this study. Pro Football Focus does not have the aDOT information organized in the way I want to present it, so YPC it is. Despite the flaws that come with using it, YPC does tend to tell us which of the three roles that receiver played that particular year.

* Possession receivers - at least how they are defined in this piece - need to catch roughly 75 percent of their 150 or so targets to have a prayer to be a league-winner. Of the 24 "possession" receivers to score at least 225 points, all 17 who did not catch at least three-fourths of their targets placed 31st or lower.

* There is no "sweet spot" YPC range per se, but the vast majority of top performers in the possession receiver group averaged between 11.1 and 11.9 yards per reception. Of the top five finishers among possession receivers, only Landry (2015) did so and failed to land in the 11.1-11.9 range. His secret: he boosted his fantasy-point total by adding 113 rushing yards and a touchdown.

* While nine of the 24 possession receivers scored six or fewer touchdowns, all of them had at least 90 catches and six had 100. Interestingly, Lockett (10 TDs last season) was the only other "possession" receiver besides Adams (2020) to score at least 10 times.

 Intermediate Receivers (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm PPR Tgt Rec Catch % ReYds YPC ReTDs
1 Antonio Brown 2015 27 PIT 388.2 193 136 70.5% 1834 13.5 10
2 Julio Jones 2015 26 ATL 375.1 203 136 67.0% 1871 13.8 8
5 Brandon Marshall 2015 31 NYJ 339.2 173 109 63.0% 1502 13.8 14
7 DeAndre Hopkins 2018 26 HOU 333.5 163 115 70.6% 1572 13.7 11
8 DeAndre Hopkins 2015 23 HOU 331.1 192 111 57.8% 1521 13.7 11
9 Davante Adams 2018 26 GB 329.6 169 111 65.7% 1386 12.5 13
11 Stefon Diggs 2020 27 BUF 328.6 166 127 76.5% 1535 12.1 8
13 Antonio Brown 2018 30 PIT 323.7 168 104 61.9% 1297 12.5 15
18 Antonio Brown 2016 28 PIT 307.3 154 106 68.8% 1284 12.1 12
19 Adam Thielen 2018 28 MIN 307.3 153 113 73.9% 1373 12.2 9
20 Jordy Nelson 2016 31 GB 304.7 152 97 63.8% 1257 13.0 14
21 Mike Evans 2016 23 TB 304.1 173 96 55.5% 1321 13.8 12
23 JuJu Smith-Schuster 2018 22 PIT 296.9 166 111 66.9% 1426 12.8 7
24 Odell Beckham Jr. 2016 24 NYG 296.6 169 101 59.8% 1367 13.5 10
26 DeAndre Hopkins 2020 28 ARI 287.8 160 115 71.9% 1407 12.2 6
27 Keenan Allen 2017 25 LAC 284.2 159 102 64.2% 1393 13.7 6
37 Cooper Kupp 2019 26 LAR 270.5 134 94 70.1% 1161 12.4 10
38 Doug Baldwin 2015 27 SEA 268.9 103 78 75.7% 1069 13.7 14
40 Demaryius Thomas 2015 28 DEN 267.4 177 105 59.3% 1304 12.4 6
44 Allen Robinson 2020 27 CHI 262.9 151 102 67.5% 1250 12.3 6
47 Calvin Johnson 2015 30 DET 261.4 149 88 59.1% 1214 13.8 9
48 Keenan Allen 2018 26 LAC 260.1 136 97 71.3% 1196 12.3 6
53 Michael Thomas 2016 23 NO 255.7 121 92 76.0% 1137 12.4 9
55 Adam Thielen 2020 30 MIN 254.0 108 74 68.5% 925 12.5 14
57 Brandin Cooks 2015 22 NO 253.6 129 84 65.1% 1138 13.5 9
58 Eric Decker 2015 28 NYJ 252.7 132 80 60.6% 1027 12.8 12
63 Davante Adams 2016 24 GB 246.7 121 75 62.0% 997 13.3 12
72 Jeremy Maclin 2015 27 KC 243.2 124 87 70.2% 1088 12.5 8
77 Amari Cooper 2020 26 DAL 236.8 130 92 70.8% 1114 12.1 5
78 Tyler Lockett 2019 27 SEA 235.2 110 82 74.5% 1057 12.9 8
80 Robert Woods 2019 27 LAR 232.9 139 90 64.7% 1134 12.6 2
82 Amari Cooper 2016 22 OAK 232.3 132 83 62.9% 1153 13.9 5
84 Jarvis Landry 2016 24 MIA 231.3 131 94 71.8% 1136 12.1 4
87 D.J. Moore 2019 22 CAR 230.5 135 87 64.4% 1175 13.5 4
88 Odell Beckham Jr. 2018 26 NYG 230.3 124 77 62.1% 1052 13.7 6
90 Marvin Jones 2020 30 DET 227.8 115 76 66.1% 978 12.9 9
93 DJ Chark 2019 23 JAC 225.8 118 73 61.9% 1008 13.8 8

Rk Player Year Age Tm PPR Tgt Rec Catch % ReYds YPC ReTDs
43 Group Average   - 26.2 - 278.9 146.8 97.3 66.3% 1261.1 13.0 9
1 Group Minimum   - 22 - 225.8 103 73 55.5% 925 12.1 2
93 Group Maximum   - 31 - 375.1 203 136 76.5% 1871 13.9 15

Observations

* Six of the top nine and eight of the top 13 finishers over the last six years are from the "intermediate" group. Fifteen of the 37 intermediate receivers scored at least 10 times and represent more than half of the 10-score wideouts in this study (28).

* The average catch rate for the entire intermediate receiver group in this study is 66.3 percent, only a 3.5 percent drop from the possession group. When we consider the possibility of something bad (i.e. interception or incompletion) happening goes up only 3.5 percent (essentially once every 32-33 passes) when quarterbacks throw roughly 2-3 yards further down the field, it makes sense to do so.

* Amazingly, 35 percent (13-of-37) of the wideouts in the intermediate group posted a catch rate of at least 70 percent, just a sliver better than the possession group (8-of-24, 33 percent).

* Nineteen of the 37 intermediate receivers (51.4 percent) attracted at least 149 targets, just slightly less than the possession wideouts (13-of-24, 54.2 percent). The intermediate receivers did not just skate by on shorter catches either, averaging 13 YPC. The possession group was at 10.9.

 Deep Threats (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm PPR Tgt Rec Catch % ReYds YPC ReTDs
6 Tyreek Hill 2018 24 KC 334.0 137 87 63.5% 1479 17.0 12
10 Tyreek Hill 2020 26 KC 328.9 135 87 64.4% 1276 14.7 15
12 Julio Jones 2018 29 ATL 325.9 170 113 66.5% 1677 14.8 8
14 Odell Beckham Jr. 2015 23 NYG 319.3 158 96 60.8% 1450 15.1 13
16 Antonio Brown 2017 29 PIT 310.3 163 101 62.0% 1533 15.2 9
17 DeAndre Hopkins 2017 25 HOU 309.8 174 96 55.2% 1378 14.4 13
22 Allen Robinson 2015 22 JAC 304.0 151 80 53.0% 1400 17.5 14
25 Mike Evans 2018 25 TB 290.4 138 86 62.3% 1524 17.7 8
28 Calvin Ridley 2020 26 ATL 281.5 143 90 62.9% 1374 15.3 9
30 Chris Godwin 2019 23 TB 276.1 121 86 71.1% 1333 15.5 9
32 Justin Jefferson 2020 21 MIN 274.2 125 88 70.4% 1400 15.9 7
33 Julio Jones 2019 30 ATL 274.1 157 99 63.1% 1394 14.1 6
34 T.Y. Hilton 2016 27 IND 273.8 155 91 58.7% 1448 15.9 6
35 A.J. Green 2015 27 CIN 273.7 132 86 65.2% 1297 15.1 10
36 D.K. Metcalf 2020 23 SEA 271.3 129 83 64.3% 1303 15.7 10
42 Robert Woods 2018 26 LAR 265.6 130 86 66.2% 1219 14.2 6
50 Julio Jones 2016 27 ATL 259.9 129 83 64.3% 1409 17.0 6
59 Julio Jones 2017 28 ATL 251.9 148 88 59.5% 1444 16.4 3
60 Mike Evans 2020 27 TB 248.6 109 70 64.2% 1006 14.4 13
61 Kenny Golladay 2019 26 DET 248.0 116 65 56.0% 1190 18.3 11
62 A.J. Brown 2020 23 TEN 247.5 106 70 66.0% 1075 15.4 11
64 Amari Cooper 2019 25 DAL 246.5 119 79 66.4% 1189 15.1 8
65 Brandin Cooks 2016 23 NO 246.3 117 78 66.7% 1173 15.0 8
66 DeVante Parker 2019 26 MIA 246.2 128 72 56.3% 1202 16.7 9
67 Tyreek Hill 2017 23 KC 245.2 105 75 71.4% 1183 15.8 7
71 Brandin Cooks 2018 25 LAR 243.2 117 80 68.4% 1204 15.1 5
73 Adam Thielen 2017 27 MIN 239.7 142 91 64.1% 1276 14.0 4
75 T.Y. Hilton 2018 29 IND 239.0 120 76 63.3% 1270 16.7 6
76 Jarvis Landry 2019 27 CLE 237.4 138 83 60.1% 1174 14.1 6
81 Mike Evans 2019 26 TB 232.7 118 67 56.8% 1157 17.3 8
83 Brandin Cooks 2020 27 HOU 232.0 119 81 68.1% 1150 14.2 6
91 A.J. Green 2017 29 CIN 226.8 143 75 52.4% 1078 14.4 8
94 Allen Hurns 2015 24 JAC 225.1 105 64 61.0% 1031 16.1 10
95 Marvin Jones 2017 27 DET 225.1 107 61 57.0% 1101 18.0 9

Rk Player Year Age Tm PPR Tgt Rec Catch % ReYds YPC ReTDs
50 Group Average   - 25.7 - 266.3 132.5 82.7 62.5% 1288.1 15.6 8.6
6 Group Minimum   - 21 - 225.1 105 61 52.4% 1006 14.0 3
95 Group Maximum   - 30 - 334.0 174 113 71.4% 1677 18.3 15

Observations

Note: There is an element of run after the catch that is not being accounted for in just using YPC, but it is also important to realize most intermediate receivers are not going to push for 14 or 15 yards per catch unless they are consistently winning on throws 20-25 yards down the field.

* Despite averaging 14 fewer catches than intermediate receivers and 20 fewer than possession wideouts, all 34 of the deep threats in this study topped 1,000 receiving yards. The group average of 1,261 yards was also the highest of the three groups.

* A catch total in the 60s - four catches per game during a 16-game season works out to 64 - seems like an awfully small number for a receiver to push for 1,000 yards, yet there are four such entries - three of which crossed the threshold rather easily.

* Although far from ideal, receivers can get away with a catch rate in the 50s and still enjoy plenty of success. Of the 15 receivers in this study to fall below 60 percent, four of them finished inside the top 22 and five finished inside the top 34. The four top-22 entries made up for it by scoring at least 11 touchdown catches.

* Julio Jones (2019) is the only receiver in the "deep threat" category to make the list in his age-30 season. Only four players - Jones included - did so in their age-29 season and only one (Jones again) did so as a 28-year-old.

How can this help us for moving forward?

The rock stars tend to live in the intermediate range of the field.

One way to look at the success of intermediate receivers in this study would be to say the top players are getting possession receiver volume further down the field, essentially taking one page from the possession guys and one page from the deep threats. Unfortunately, that is a bit too simplistic of an answer.

Take a closer look at the 11 top 20 entries from the intermediate group, which consists of eight different receivers. All of them possess exquisite route-running ability, a significant size advantage on just about every defender they face (and/or play the ball in the air extremely well) or both. The ability to create separation will almost always be part of the equation, which partially explains how "little guys" like Antonio Brown and Stefon Diggs can enjoy touchdown production similar to the "big guys."

The more interesting takeaway here is 15 of the 37 intermediate receivers scoring at least 10 touchdowns. When we consider the possession group only had two, it suggests the majority of offensive coordinators (and/or quarterbacks) view their possession receivers mostly as chain-movers and unworthy of consistently being the primary option near the end zone (unless they boast the aforementioned route-running ability or a significant size advantage).

Fantasy owners should be more cognizant of where receivers are targeted (or should be targeted given their skill set) and how good they are after the catch.

Deebo Samuel is a great example of how misleading YPC without context can be. His 2020 season was truly unique: his aDOT was a mere 2.2 yards, his YPC was 11.8 and his yards after the catch/reception (YAC/R) was 12.2. We can argue Samuel was essentially the same receiver in both seasons, yet his 2019 metrics say otherwise: 7.5 aDOT, 14.1 YPC and 8.3 YAC/R. YPC would suggest he was a deep threat in 2019 and a possession receiver in 2020. The truth is more along the lines of a possession receiver in 2019 and mostly a line-of-scrimmage wideout in 2020.

Samuel is admittedly an extreme example, but it does illustrate that YPC - or even aDOT or YAC/R - are not necessarily "sticky" stats (consistent from one year to the next). However, aDOT and YAC/R are much stickier than YPC and play a big role in what a player's YPC ends up being. With that said, it is not enough to look at one or the other. A player like Marquez Valdes-Scantling was fourth among qualified receivers last year in YAC/R (7.3). Is he a run-after-catch beast? Not exactly, especially with an aDOT of 18.3. That kind of aDOT and YAC/R combination should scream low-volume deep threat who escapes a desperate tackle attempt from the only defender that far down the field and waltzes his way the final 20 or so yards for a touchdown.

Catch rates of less than 60 percent do not automatically disqualify a receiver from potential league-winning status, but they need either a sizable aDOT/YPC or double-digit touchdowns to make up for it.

A surprising 15 of the 95 receivers to qualify for this study made the cut despite sporting catch rates below 60 percent. The average YPC of those players was 15.1. Only two players from that group had YPCs of less than 13 yards and only six of them had YPCs of less than 14 yards. Of those six players, five had at least nine touchdowns.

At a certain point with YPC (and, by extension, aDOT), receivers fall victim to the law of diminishing returns.

In other words, a receiver with an 18.5 YPC can be awesome because he only needs about three catches per game to be worth a start in fantasy and the odds are reasonably strong one of those plays will end up with him in the end zone. Over the course of the season, that kind of thing tends to be unsustainable. Although there is no shame in finishing at the back end of the list of a study such as this one, it starts becoming a bit difficult for a receiver to crack the top 20 performances over the last six years when the YPC starts creeping up over 15 unless it is accompanied by unusual volume for a deep threat. In fact, the only top-20 finish from a receiver with a 15.2-plus YPC was Hill in 2018. How did he do it? Well, 22 carries for 151 yards and a score probably did not hurt.

Unless he is an all-time great, it is usually a good idea to bow out on a receiver following his age-31 season.

There are four entries above from players 32 or older, Fitzgerald accounts for three of them. (Edelman is the other.) The easiest common denominator is that both were exceptional slot receivers in those seasons. Outside of those four exceptions, Marshall (2015) and Nelson (2016) are the only players above to dominate as 31-year-olds. This information leaves fantasy owners in a precarious position for a player like Julio Jones this season, but it seems more likely than not he qualifies for the Fitzgerald exemption and probably has another good year or two left in him - assuming good health.

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.