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Anatomy of a League Winner - Running Backs


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 7/10/21 |
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs


One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's and Dalvin Cook's of the world come immediately to mind, but we need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land either one of those players.

To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided to take a position-by-position look at each player that enjoyed rarified air over the last six seasons. By using the best of the best in each position group over a six-year period as the basis for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.

There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players appearing multiple times on the list). It is also OK to view this series of articles as something of a correlational study or a series of interesting facts, but there's more value in this kind of analysis than that. My top priority is trying to establish what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position, especially considering the different styles of players that exist in the game.

Each position during this four-part series will be divided into multiple groups for the express purpose of challenging how you currently think about the position (and its upside). The "Rk" column to the left of each player's name is where he finished among his peers over the six years of this study. (For example, Cook's 2020 season ranked 10th among all running backs in the last six years.) Running backs were split into the following groups:

Workhorse - At least 220 carries and/or 300-plus total touches
Run-heavy - More than 220 carries AND 48 or fewer targets
Tweener - Fewer than 220 carries a run-heavy back AND fewer than 275 touches
Satellite - Fewer than 160 carries AND more than 48 targets

Take note that a particular running back may appear in multiple tables. While that is not ideal, running backs are not necessarily asked to do the same things or take on the same role in an offense year after year. Sometimes they need to assume more of the rushing workload in some years more than they do others. Workhorses may get hurt or demoted, tweeners may be asked to take on more of a satellite role and so on. I also acknowledge that while some of the observations I will make over the next two weeks are somewhat obvious, they often bear repeating.

Below each table will be another table that summarizes the averages of each group as well as the group minimum and maximum. The cutoff at running back for this study was 200 fantasy points (top 87 performances in the last six years).

 Workhorses (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Car RuYds RuTDs Tgt Rec ReYds ReTDs
1 Christian McCaffrey 2019 23 CAR 471.2 287 1387 15 142 116 1005 4
2 David Johnson 2016 25 ARI 407.8 293 1239 16 120 80 879 4
3 Saquon Barkley 2018 21 NYG 385.8 261 1307 11 121 91 721 4
4 Christian McCaffrey 2018 22 CAR 385.5 219 1098 7 124 107 867 6
5 Todd Gurley 2017 23 LAR 383.3 279 1305 13 87 64 788 6
7 Todd Gurley 2018 24 LAR 372.1 256 1251 17 81 59 580 4
9 Le'Veon Bell 2017 25 PIT 341.6 321 1291 9 106 85 655 2
10 Dalvin Cook 2020 25 MIN 337.8 312 1557 16 54 44 361 1
12 Ezekiel Elliott 2018 23 DAL 329.1 304 1434 6 95 77 567 3
15 Le'Veon Bell 2016 24 PIT 317.4 261 1268 7 94 75 616 2
16 Devonta Freeman 2015 23 ATL 316.4 265 1056 11 97 73 578 3
17 Aaron Jones 2019 25 GB 314.8 236 1084 16 68 49 474 3
18 Ezekiel Elliott 2019 24 DAL 311.7 301 1357 12 71 54 420 2
20 LeSean McCoy 2016 28 BUF 298.3 234 1267 13 57 50 356 1
21 Kareem Hunt 2017 22 KC 295.2 272 1327 8 63 53 455 3
23 DeMarco Murray 2016 28 TEN 293.8 293 1287 9 67 53 377 3
24 Dalvin Cook 2019 24 MIN 292.4 250 1135 13 63 53 519 0
25 Melvin Gordon 2017 24 LAC 288.1 284 1105 8 83 58 476 4
26 Devonta Freeman 2016 24 ATL 284.1 227 1079 11 65 54 462 2
28 Mark Ingram 2017 28 NO 278.0 230 1124 12 71 58 416 0
31 David Montgomery 2020 23 CHI 264.8 247 1070 8 68 54 438 2
32 LeSean McCoy 2017 29 BUF 263.6 287 1138 6 77 59 448 2
34 Leonard Fournette 2019 24 JAC 259.4 265 1152 3 100 76 522 0
36 Nick Chubb 2019 24 CLE 255.2 298 1494 8 49 36 278 0
38 Melvin Gordon 2016 23 LAC 250.6 254 997 10 57 41 419 2
39 James Robinson 2020 22 JAC 250.4 240 1070 7 60 49 344 3
41 David Johnson 2018 27 ARI 246.6 258 940 7 76 50 446 3
43 Joe Mixon 2018 22 CIN 243.4 237 1168 8 55 43 296 1
48 Carlos Hyde 2017 27 SF 233.8 240 938 8 88 59 350 0
57 Jordan Howard 2016 22 CHI 230.1 252 1313 6 50 29 298 1
60 Ezekiel Elliott 2020 25 DAL 223.7 244 979 6 71 52 338 2
62 Todd Gurley 2019 25 LAR 219.4 223 857 12 49 31 207 2
68 Le'Veon Bell 2019 27 NYJ 215.0 245 789 3 78 66 461 1
78 Latavius Murray 2015 25 OAK 204.8 266 1066 6 53 41 232 0

Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Car RuYds RuTDs Tgt Rec ReYds ReTDs
28 Group Average   - 24.4 - 296.0 263.0 1174.4 9.6 78.2 60.0 489.7 2.2
1 Group Minimum   - 21 - 204.8 219 789 3 49 29 207 0
78 Group Maximum   - 29 - 471.2 321 1557 17 142 116 1005 6

Observations

* The top five fantasy running back performances, six of the first seven and seven of the first nine from 2015-20 fall into this group. In fact, 29 of the top 48 efforts over the last six years are by running backs in this group.

* The average age of this group is 24.4. Unsurprisingly, 27 of the 34 entries were 25 or younger. None of them was 30 or older and only four were at least 28.

* The first seven running back entries in this group were targeted at least 81 times.

* Only four of the 34 workhorses above scored fewer than eight total touchdowns. When we look at each of the cases more closely, it is not hard to understand why those particular four failed to do so.

 Tweeners (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Car RuYds RuTDs Tgt Rec ReYds ReTDs
6 Alvin Kamara 2020 25 NO 377.8 187 932 16 107 83 756 5
8 Alvin Kamara 2018 23 NO 354.2 194 883 14 105 81 709 4
27 James Conner 2018 23 PIT 280.0 215 973 12 71 55 497 1
30 Melvin Gordon 2018 25 LAC 275.5 175 885 10 66 50 490 4
35 Aaron Jones 2020 26 GB 258.9 201 1104 9 63 47 355 2
40 Alvin Kamara 2019 24 NO 248.5 171 797 5 97 81 533 1
42 Saquon Barkley 2019 22 NYG 244.1 217 1003 6 73 52 438 2
45 Mark Ingram 2019 30 BAL 242.5 202 1018 10 29 26 247 5
46 Mark Ingram 2016 27 NO 242.2 205 1043 6 58 46 319 4
52 Lamar Miller 2015 24 MIA 231.9 194 872 8 57 47 397 2
53 DeAngelo Williams 2015 32 PIT 231.4 200 907 11 47 40 367 0
56 Kareem Hunt 2018 23 KC 230.2 181 824 7 35 26 378 7
61 Phillip Lindsay 2018 24 DEN 222.8 192 1037 9 47 35 241 1
63 Miles Sanders 2019 22 PHI 218.7 179 818 3 63 50 509 3
64 Kareem Hunt 2020 25 CLE 218.5 198 841 6 51 38 304 5
69 Matt Forte 2015 30 CHI 214.7 218 898 4 58 44 389 3
70 Kenyan Drake 2019 25 2TM 214.2 170 817 8 68 50 345 0
73 Latavius Murray 2016 26 OAK 208.2 195 788 12 43 33 264 0
74 Nick Chubb 2020 25 CLE 207.7 190 1067 12 18 16 150 0
75 Mike Davis 2020 27 CAR 206.5 165 642 6 70 59 373 2
77 Isaiah Crowell 2016 23 CLE 205.1 198 952 7 53 40 319 0
79 Mark Ingram 2015 26 NO 203.4 166 769 6 60 50 405 0
81 Dion Lewis 2017 27 NE 203.0 180 896 6 35 32 214 3
83 Antonio Gibson 2020 22 WAS 202.2 170 795 11 44 36 247 0
85 Derrick Henry 2018 24 TEN 201.4 215 1059 12 18 15 99 0
86 Devonta Freeman 2017 25 ATL 200.2 196 865 7 47 36 317 1

Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Car RuYds RuTDs Tgt Rec ReYds ReTDs
57 Group Average   - 25.2 - 236.3 191.3 903.3 8.6 57.0 44.9 371.6 2.1
6 Group Minimum   - 22 - 200.2 165 642 3 18 15 99 0
86 Group Maximum   - 32 - 377.8 218 1104 16 107 83 756 7

Observations

Note: The players above do not quite qualify for any of the other groups because it is difficult to consider a back with fewer than 220 carries a run-heavy back or fewer than 275 touches a workhorse. Similarly, backs with 200-plus touches are not satellites. It is also important to note that 13 players in this group missed multiple games, so there a few players that could have been considered workhorses. Thus, it may be difficult to draw many strong conclusions from this collection of misfit toys.

* Not surprisingly, players in this group need to be masters of efficiency. Twenty-one of the 26 instances above averaged at least 4.5 yards per carry. Seventeen of the 26 averaged at least eight yards per reception. Thirteen of those 17 did both.

* Kamara owns both of the top 25 overall entries from this group - an accomplishment made possible by his 18 total touchdowns in 2018 and 21 total touchdowns in 2020. He also went over 1,500 total yards each season.

* While Kamara's aforementioned banner seasons drive up the total TD average of this group (from 10 without him included to 10.7 with those seasons included), tweeners must be efficient here as well. Surprisingly, high-performing tweeners averaged only 1.1 fewer touchdowns (10.7 to the workhorses' 11.8).

 Run-Heavy Backs (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Car RuYds RuTDs Tgt Rec ReYds ReTDs
11 Derrick Henry 2020 26 TEN 333.1 378 2027 17 31 19 114 0
13 Ezekiel Elliott 2016 21 DAL 325.4 322 1631 15 39 32 363 1
22 Derrick Henry 2019 25 TEN 294.6 303 1540 16 24 18 206 2
33 Adrian Peterson 2015 30 MIN 260.7 327 1485 11 36 30 222 0
37 Jonathan Taylor 2020 21 IND 252.8 232 1169 11 39 36 299 1
49 LeGarrette Blount 2016 30 NE 232.9 299 1161 18 8 7 38 0
50 Chris Carson 2019 25 SEA 232.6 278 1230 7 47 37 266 2
51 Doug Martin 2015 26 TB 232.3 288 1402 6 44 33 271 1
54 Josh Jacobs 2020 22 LV 231.3 273 1065 12 45 33 238 0
55 Leonard Fournette 2017 22 JAC 230.2 268 1040 9 48 36 302 1
59 Joe Mixon 2019 23 CIN 225.4 278 1137 5 45 35 287 3
67 Jay Ajayi 2016 23 MIA 215.3 260 1272 8 35 27 151 0
71 Frank Gore 2016 33 IND 214.2 263 1025 4 47 38 277 4
72 Todd Gurley 2015 21 STL 208.4 229 1106 10 26 21 188 0
80 Ezekiel Elliott 2017 22 DAL 203.2 242 983 7 38 26 269 2
82 Chris Ivory 2015 27 NYJ 202.7 247 1070 7 37 30 217 1
84 Chris Carson 2018 24 SEA 201.4 247 1151 9 24 20 163 0

Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Car RuYds RuTDs Tgt Rec ReYds ReTDs
52 Group Average   - 24.8 - 241.0 279 1264.4 10.1 36.1 28.1 227.7 1.1
11 Group Minimum   - 21 - 201.4 229 983 4 8 7 38 0
84 Group Maximum   - 33 - 333.1 378 2027 18 48 38 363 4

Observations

* Interestingly enough, this is the section where we find five of the seven 30-year-olds over the last six years to top 200 fantasy points.

* Thanks in large part to Henry, this group accounts for three of the top four rushing TD efforts over the last six seasons.

* If a back is locked into a heavy rushing workload but isn't much of a factor for whatever reason in the passing game (reminder: 48 or fewer targets for the sake of this study), he will likely need at least 278 carries, 1,200 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns to even be in the conversation as a potential league-winner.

* Even the "run-heavy" backs can be projected for a decent amount of volume in the passing game. This group features the 11 lowest reception totals from the 87 backs in this study. However, only five of them finished with fewer than 20 receptions and all but one had at least 15. Those are not encouraging numbers, but it should be slightly comforting that we can expect at least an additional 20 PPR fantasy points each year - even when we typically know these backs will not be a big part of the passing game. It is also mildly surprising (and encouraging) that the receiving yardage average from this group is 227.7 yards.

 Satellite Backs (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Car RuYds RuTDs Tgt Rec ReYds ReTDs
14 Alvin Kamara 2017 22 NO 320.4 120 728 8 100 81 826 5
19 Austin Ekeler 2019 24 LAC 309.0 132 557 3 108 92 993 8
29 James White 2018 26 NE 276.6 94 425 5 123 87 751 7
44 Danny Woodhead 2015 30 LAC 243.1 98 336 3 106 80 755 6
47 Tarik Cohen 2018 23 CHI 233.9 99 444 3 91 71 725 5
58 Christian McCaffrey 2017 21 CAR 228.6 117 435 2 113 80 651 5
65 Duke Johnson 2017 24 CLE 216.1 82 348 4 93 74 693 3
66 David Johnson 2015 24 ARI 215.8 125 581 8 57 36 457 4
76 Kenyan Drake 2018 24 MIA 206.2 120 535 4 73 53 477 5
87 James White 2019 27 NE 200.2 67 263 1 95 72 645 5

Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Car RuYds RuTDs Tgt Rec ReYds ReTDs
51 Group Average   - 25 - 245.0 105 465.2 4.1 95.9 72.6 697.0 5.3
14 Group Minimum   - 21 - 200.2 67 263 1 57 36 457 3
87 Group Maximum   - 30 - 320.4 132 728 8 123 92 993 8

Observations

* Only two of the top 28 fantasy performances by a running back in the last six seasons occurred when that running back logged fewer than 170 carries. Even then, Kamara (2017) and Ekeler (2019) still reached 200 touches and used their 80-plus catches to top 1,500 total yards.

* Take note that seven of the 10 backs in this group finished 44th or lower among all fantasy backs across the last six years. The three that placed higher all scored at least 11 touchdowns. All three of those backs also had at least 80 catches.

* White (2019) might have just made the 200-point cut, but his presence on this list is a reminder that a back can be very relevant on as few as 139 touches. In fact, eight of the 87 backs in this study (reminder: at least 200 fantasy points) hit that mark despite finishing with less than 200 touches.

How can this help us for moving forward?

Volume is king.

Shocking, I know. Among the top 12 finishers at running back from 2015-20, the fewest touches any of those 12 had was Kamara in 2018 (275) and 2020 (270). The average of this group is 349.8 touches. The lowest fantasy finish by any running back with at least 325 touches in this study was by Chubb in 2019 (36th). It is also comforting to know that the average TD total for backs with at least 315 touches in this study was 13.

Practice age discrimination.

This one is about as obvious as the preceding paragraph. The highest finish by a running back over the age of 26 in the last six seasons combined is 20th (McCoy, 2016). Again, to reinforce that point, the 19 highest-scoring running backs from 2015-20 were 26 years of age or younger.

Fantasy managers need to set the floor for elite RB1s at around 1,500 total yards and nine total touchdowns in a given year.

Running backs who achieved both benchmarks occupy the first 26 spots of top fantasy performances at their position over the last six seasons. Only two backs scored as few as nine touchdowns, and both of them (2016 Bell, 2018 Elliott) amassed at least 1,884 total yards. Conner's 2018 season (No. 27 overall) is the first instance of a back accumulating less than 1,500 total yards.

All of the top-10 backs amassed at least 54 targets and 44 catches.

Furthermore, the top nine entries turned those opportunities in the passing game into at least 580 receiving yards. Eight of those nine scored at least four receiving TDs.

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.