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Anatomy of a League Winner - Running Backs


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 6/26/20 |


Aaron Jones

One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's and Saquon Barkley's of the world come immediately to mind, but we need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land either one of those players.

To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided to break down what one looks like - physically and statistically - by taking a closer look at each player that reached a particular fantasy-point benchmark that could be considered great or elite over the last three seasons. By using the best of the best in each position group over a three-year period as the basis for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.

The goal of this analysis is to give readers a general idea of what characteristics - be it physical or statistical - they need to keep in mind on draft day. There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players appearing two or three times on the list). It's also OK to view this series of articles as something of a correlational study, but it's more than that. My top priority is trying to establish what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position, especially considering the different styles of players that exist in the game.

At the bottom of the sortable table, there is another mini-table summarizing the group averages, minimums and maximums of each category, hits and hit rate. The "hits" are how many players at that position exceeded the average of the players in the first table, while the hit rate is the percentage of "hits" in that group (a "greater than x" situation). In rare circumstances such as quarterback age, I opted for a "less than X" approach. The text will be red in those atypical situations. My advice to maximize the value of the table below: sort each column and then read the analysis that accompanies that column header.

Because we are discussing an average of the best of the best over the last three seasons, the "hit rate" percentages will probably be lower than some would expect Thus, anything over about 60 percent is notable because it suggests the group is bottom-heavy. Likewise, anything below about 40 percent suggests the group is top-heavy. This "rule" will apply to all positions.

Running Backs

Fantasy point threshold - 180-plus fantasy points. A total of 57 running backs reached this mark over the last three seasons.

 League Winning RBs: 2017-2019
Rk Player Year Age Ht Wt G Car RuYds RuTDs Tgt Rec ReYds ReTD Ctch% Touch FPts FPts/G
1 Christian McCaffrey 2019 23 71 205 16 287 1387 15 142 116 1005 4 81.7% 403 471.2 29.5
2 Saquon Barkley 2018 21 71 233 16 261 1307 11 121 91 721 4 75.2% 352 385.8 24.1
3 Christian McCaffrey 2018 22 71 205 16 219 1098 7 124 107 867 6 86.3% 326 385.5 24.1
4 Todd Gurley 2017 23 73 224 15 279 1305 13 87 64 788 6 73.6% 343 383.3 25.6
5 Todd Gurley 2018 24 73 224 14 256 1251 17 81 59 580 4 72.8% 315 372.1 26.6
6 Alvin Kamara 2018 23 70 215 15 194 883 14 105 81 709 4 77.1% 275 354.2 23.6
7 Le'Veon Bell 2017 25 73 225 15 321 1291 9 106 85 655 2 80.2% 406 341.6 22.8
8 Ezekiel Elliott 2018 23 72 228 15 304 1434 6 95 77 567 3 81.1% 381 329.1 21.9
9 Alvin Kamara 2017 22 70 215 16 120 728 8 100 81 826 5 81.0% 201 320.4 20.0
10 Aaron Jones 2019 25 69 208 16 236 1084 16 68 49 474 3 72.1% 285 314.8 19.7
11 Ezekiel Elliott 2019 24 72 228 16 301 1357 12 71 54 420 2 76.1% 355 311.7 19.5
12 Austin Ekeler 2019 24 70 200 16 132 557 3 108 92 993 8 85.2% 224 309.0 19.3
13 Kareem Hunt 2017 22 71 216 16 272 1327 8 63 53 455 3 84.1% 325 295.2 18.5
14 Derrick Henry 2019 25 75 247 15 303 1540 16 24 18 206 2 75.0% 321 294.6 19.6
15 Dalvin Cook 2019 24 70 210 14 250 1135 13 63 53 519 0 84.1% 303 292.4 20.9
16 Melvin Gordon 2017 24 73 215 16 284 1105 8 83 58 476 4 69.9% 342 288.1 18.0
17 James Conner 2018 23 73 233 13 215 973 12 71 55 497 1 77.5% 270 280.0 21.5
18 Mark Ingram 2017 28 69 215 16 230 1124 12 71 58 416 0 81.7% 288 278.0 17.4
19 James White 2018 26 70 205 16 94 425 5 123 87 751 7 70.7% 181 276.6 17.3
20 Melvin Gordon 2018 25 73 215 12 175 885 10 66 50 490 4 75.8% 225 275.5 23.0
21 LeSean McCoy 2017 29 71 210 16 287 1138 6 77 59 448 2 76.6% 346 263.6 16.5
22 Leonard Fournette 2019 24 72 228 15 265 1152 3 100 76 522 0 76.0% 341 259.4 17.3
23 Nick Chubb 2019 24 71 227 16 298 1494 8 49 36 278 0 73.5% 334 255.2 16.0
24 Alvin Kamara 2019 24 70 215 14 171 797 5 97 81 533 1 83.5% 252 248.5 17.8
25 David Johnson 2018 27 73 224 16 258 940 7 76 50 446 3 65.8% 308 246.6 15.4
26 Saquon Barkley 2019 22 71 233 13 217 1003 6 73 52 438 2 71.2% 269 244.1 18.8
27 Joe Mixon 2018 22 73 220 14 237 1168 8 55 43 296 1 78.2% 280 243.4 17.4
28 Mark Ingram 2019 30 69 215 15 202 1018 10 29 26 247 5 89.7% 228 242.5 16.2
29 Tarik Cohen 2018 23 66 191 16 99 444 3 91 71 725 5 78.0% 170 233.9 14.6
30 Chris Carson 2019 25 71 222 15 278 1230 7 47 37 266 2 78.7% 315 232.6 15.5
31 Leonard Fournette 2017 22 72 228 13 268 1040 9 48 36 302 1 75.0% 304 230.2 17.7
32 Kareem Hunt 2018 23 71 216 11 181 824 7 35 26 378 7 74.3% 207 230.2 20.9
33 Christian McCaffrey 2017 21 71 205 16 117 435 2 113 80 651 5 70.8% 197 228.6 14.3
34 Joe Mixon 2019 23 73 220 16 278 1137 5 45 35 287 3 77.8% 313 225.4 14.1
35 Phillip Lindsay 2018 24 68 190 15 192 1037 9 47 35 241 1 74.5% 227 222.8 14.9
36 Todd Gurley 2019 25 73 224 15 223 857 12 49 31 207 2 63.3% 254 219.4 14.6
37 Miles Sanders 2019 22 71 211 16 179 818 3 63 50 509 3 79.4% 229 218.7 13.7
38 Duke Johnson 2017 24 69 210 16 82 348 4 93 74 693 3 79.6% 156 216.1 13.5
39 Le'Veon Bell 2019 27 73 225 15 245 789 3 78 66 461 1 84.6% 311 215.0 14.3
40 Kenyan Drake 2019 25 73 211 14 170 817 8 68 50 345 0 73.5% 220 214.2 15.3
41 Kenyan Drake 2018 24 73 211 16 120 535 4 73 53 477 5 72.6% 173 206.2 12.9
42 Ezekiel Elliott 2017 22 72 228 10 242 983 7 38 26 269 2 68.4% 268 203.2 20.3
43 Dion Lewis 2017 27 68 195 16 180 896 6 35 32 214 3 91.4% 212 203.0 12.7
44 Chris Carson 2018 24 71 222 14 247 1151 9 24 20 163 0 83.3% 267 201.4 14.4
45 Derrick Henry 2018 24 75 247 16 215 1059 12 18 15 99 0 83.3% 230 201.4 12.6
46 Devonta Freeman 2017 25 68 206 14 196 865 7 47 36 317 1 76.6% 232 200.2 14.3
47 James White 2019 27 70 205 15 67 263 1 95 72 645 5 75.8% 139 200.2 13.4
48 Jordan Howard 2017 23 72 224 16 276 1122 9 32 23 125 0 71.9% 299 199.7 12.5
49 Phillip Lindsay 2019 25 68 190 16 224 1011 7 48 35 196 0 72.9% 259 197.7 12.4
50 Devonta Freeman 2019 27 68 206 14 184 656 2 70 59 410 4 84.3% 243 197.6 14.1
51 Nick Chubb 2018 23 71 227 16 192 996 8 29 20 149 2 69.0% 212 194.5 12.2
52 Tevin Coleman 2018 25 73 210 16 167 800 4 44 32 276 5 72.7% 199 193.6 12.1
53 Lamar Miller 2017 26 70 221 16 238 888 3 45 36 327 3 80.0% 274 193.5 12.1
54 Josh Jacobs 2019 21 70 220 13 242 1150 7 27 20 166 0 74.1% 262 191.6 14.7
55 Adrian Peterson 2018 33 73 220 16 251 1042 7 26 20 208 1 76.9% 271 189.0 11.8
56 Marlon Mack 2019 23 72 210 14 247 1091 8 17 14 82 0 82.4% 261 181.3 13.0
57 Melvin Gordon 2019 26 73 215 12 162 612 8 55 42 296 1 76.4% 204 180.8 15.1

 RBs As A Group: 2017-2019
  Age Ht Wt G Car RuYD RuTD Tgt Rec ReYd ReTD Ctch% Touch FPts FPts/G
Group Average 24.3 71.2 216.6 14.9 218.1 979 7.9 67.2 51.9 440.5 2.6 77.1% 269.9 255.9 17.2
Group Minimum 21 66 190 10 67 263 1 17 14 82 0 63.3% 139 180.8 11.8
Group Maximum 33 75 247 16 321 1540 17 142 116 1005 8 91.4% 406 471.2 29.5
Hits (greater than avg) 35 32 31 40 35 34 29 30 33 32 28 25 28 22 27
Hit Rate 61% 56% 54% 70% 61% 60% 51% 53% 58% 56% 49% 44% 49% 39% 47%

Age - No Country for Old Men was an award-winning movie in 2007, and it's also a fitting way to describe this group. Of the 57 entries on this list, 55 of them (96.5 percent) are in their 20s. Taken one step further, 53 of them (93 percent) were 27 or younger. It's probably also not a coincidence that 42 of the backs (73.7 percent) are between the ages of 22 and 25. Ingram had a great 2019 season with 15 touchdowns, but his potential to be something more than RB27 on this list was severely hurt because Lamar Jackson did so much with his legs. It's OK to grab an aging back to provide some depth, but owners would be wise to take most of their swings on the 25-and-under age group during their draft.

Height (inches) - Henry (6-3) is the only back in the table who stands taller than 6-1, which just happens to be the most common size of backs in the table above (16 instances, or 28.1 percent). Cohen (5-6) is the only one shorter than 5-8, which means 54 of the 57 entries (94.7 percent) are separated by no more than five inches. It makes for interesting conversation, but I'm not sure it means much in the overall scheme of things in fantasy.

Weight - Lindsay, Cohen and Lewis are the only sub-200 pound backs on this list. Ekeler is right on that mark. Even if we count Ekeler in the former group, 52 of the 57 entries (91.2 percent) weigh at least 205 pounds. Except for McCaffrey, the bulk of great fantasy efforts in this group are from backs carrying at least 215 pounds, which is about the size most coaches and evaluators seem to want in a potential feature back. It's also worth noting the 27 highest carry totals on this list are from backs weighing 210 or more. As was the case with height, these are observations to keep in mind but not exactly the kind of thing that should greatly affect decisions on draft day.

Games - It's not mandatory for a running back to play all 16 games to qualify for this kind of list. It's a smart move to assume at least one missed game for a back while projecting them and allow yourself to be pleasantly surprised if they make it all the way through. Just over half of the backs above missed at least one contest (29 of 57, or 50.9 percent). Heck, four backs missed three games and three of them finished among the top 31.

Carries - Now we're getting into the good stuff. Unless owners are expecting at least 70 receptions out of their pass-catching backs, next year's difference-maker probably isn't going to come from a player with fewer than 120 carries. White's 19th place finish in 2018 was the result of 12 touchdowns, and he's the only one from the group of five sub-120 carry backs who finished higher than 29th. Forty-nine of the 57 entries (86 percent) toted the rock at least 160 times, and it should come as no surprise that 25 of the top 28 fantasy finishes on this list are by backs with at least 160 carries. Ten of the top 11 (91 percent) entries were by backs with at least 190 rush attempts.

Rushing yards - White (2019) makes this list despite amassing only rushing 263 yards last season, and it is somewhat surprising that 22 of the 57 (38.6 percent) didn't even reach 900 yards on the ground. However, all but one of those 22 (95.5 percent) scored at least six total touchdowns. Unless we're talking about Kamara or a back who makes a good living in the passing game, it's probably best to set your sights on a back capable of rushing for at least 800 yards.

Rushing TDs - Much as was the case with quarterbacks, the emphasis needs to be more on total TDs (as opposed to just rushing touchdowns or receiving scores). Only two of the 57 entries (3.5 percent) scored fewer than six times - both instances occurred in 2019 (Fournette and Bell). However, it's worth noting that even the majority of satellite backs such as Cohen and Duke Johnson managed at least three rushing scores. The best finish by a back with fewer than six rushing touchdowns over the last three seasons was Ekeler (12th) last season, and that's only because he scored eight through the air. Otherwise, 18 of the top 19 efforts (94.7 percent) above came from backs with at least six rushing touchdowns.

Targets/receptions - It should come as no surprise these two go hand-in-hand, especially with so many of the backs posting catch rates in the 70s and 80s. Henry's performance last season was a major exception, as his 14th place finish was the only one of the top 22 fantasy efforts by a back with fewer than 63 targets or 49 catches.

Receiving TDs - Much of what is relevant here was already discussed two paragraphs above. Backs like White and Ekeler obviously need to do well here to have any hopes of making up for their lack of rushing touchdowns. As is with the case with rushing scores, opportunity and luck are critical. As wonderful as McCaffrey's 2019 campaign was, he only scored once every 29 catches and 35.5 targets. Ingram finished with more receiving TDs on only 26 catches (five), averaging one receiving score every 5.2 receptions and 5.8 targets. The point to be made here is touchdown scoring is highly volatile, so it's not one of those areas that owners can pencil a player in for a certain range before the season and be comfortable believing he'll reach that mark.

Touches - Perhaps the most unsurprising finding on this list is the fact that of the top eight fantasy-point totals by running backs over the last three seasons, five of them recorded at least 343 touches. Kamara (in 2017) and Ekeler (in 2019) notched top-12 finishes despite ending up with fewer than 225 touches, but it is a big ask for any back to enjoy the kind of TD luck they did consistently.

Recommended baselines for running backs to approach potential league-winner status (all totals work out to 228 fantasy points, or roughly the equivalent of McCaffrey as a rookie - the RB33 on this list):

All-purpose (more than 160 carries and at least 49 targets): 1,000 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 420 receiving yards, six total TDs

Run-heavy (more than 160 carries and less than 49 targets): 1,180 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 180 receiving yards, 12 total TDs

Pass-catching specialists/miscellaneous (less than 160 carries): 60 receptions, 1,200 total yards, eight total TDs



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.