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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Fourth Quarter Projections - AFC & NFC East
All Out Blitz
12/3/15

East | North | South | West


This is my fourth and final installment of quarterly projections. Hopefully, the first three installments have helped you reach a point to where you can relax over the next week or two.

Because I take on all 32 teams and there is a lot to cover, I’m going to get right to it this week.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

Key to the table below:

PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC East

 Buffalo Bills
  13 14 15 16
Player Age PPR Non Totals HOU PHI WAS DAL
QB Tyrod Taylor 26 19.3 19.3 890 240 225 210 215
TD 5 0 2 2 1
INT 2 1 0 0 1
Ru Yards 95 25 35 15 20
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
RB LeSean McCoy 27 21.4 18.4 455 90 130 145 90
Ru TD 3 0 2 1 0
Re Yards 100 35 20 10 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 5 2 1 4
RB Karlos Williams 22 6.3 5.7 90 INJ 40 25 25
Ru TD 1 INJ 0 0 1
Re Yards 20 INJ 0 10 10
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 2 INJ 0 1 1
WR Sammy Watkins 22 18 13 0 70 110 85 75
Re TD 3 0 1 1 1
Rec 20 4 5 6 5
WR Robert Woods 23 10.8 6.8 210 40 50 55 65
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 16 3 4 4 5
WR Chris Hogan 26 7.4 4.6 125 55 30 20 20
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 11 4 3 2 2
TE Charles Clay 26 4.5 2.3 90 35 15 30 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 3 2 3 1

What to watch for: Although it serves as a convenient excuse at best, the nagging injuries of McCoy and Watkins – and their inability to get to 100 percent during the first half the season (along with the multi-week injury to Taylor before the team’s Week 8 bye) – may be the reason why the Bills have utilized them McCoy and Watkins in tandem more often before now. But here are the facts: 1) McCoy has 20 targets over his last three games after seeing no more than four in any game before Week 10 and 2) Watkins has at least 60 yards receiving AND at least one touchdown in each of the three games in which he has recorded eight targets. Last week’s 6-158-2 line came in only a half, mostly against Kansas City Chiefs CB Sean Smith, who was Pro Football Focus’ top-graded cornerback entering the game. With the defense ailing, OC Greg Roman’s game plan each week should feature at least 20 touches for McCoy and 10 targets for Watkins – no questions asked.

Miami Dolphins
13 14 15 16
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals BAL NYG SD IND
QB Ryan Tannehill 27 19.8 19.8 1065 270 235 265 295
TD 6 2 2 1 1
INT 2 0 1 0 1
Ru Yards 45 15 5 15 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Lamar Miller 24 19.1 15.9 340 65 70 120 85
Ru TD 3 0 1 2 0
Re Yards 115 25 40 20 30
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 3 5 2 3
RB Jay Ajayi 22 7 5.5 120 25 30 45 20
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 40 15 5 5 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 1 1 2
WR DeVante Parker 22 12.9 8.6 225 80 40 70 35
Re TD 2 1 0 1 0
Rec 17 6 4 4 3
WR Jarvis Landry 22 19.6 13.1 345 110 85 65 85
Re TD 3 1 1 0 1
Rec 26 8 6 5 7
WR Kenny Stills 23 4 2.5 100 35 40 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 2 1 1
WR Rishard Matthews 25 11.3 6.3 125 INJ INJ 60 65
Re TD 0 INJ INJ 0 0
Rec 10 INJ INJ 5 5
TE Jordan Cameron 27 6.3 4.3 110 10 25 30 45
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 8 1 2 2 3

What to watch for: The Dolphins made another shakeup to the coaching staff this week, firing OC Bill Lazor and replacing him with QB coach Zac Taylor (presumably in response to last week’s 58:9 pass-to-run ratio). Interim HC Dan Campbell wants a physical running game and got it for two weeks after he took over the job, but it has largely been hit-or-miss since. A rededication to the ground game should seemingly make Miller’s owners happy, but Ajayi’s presence is looming larger by the week. It should come as no surprise if this backfield is a full-blown committee by the end of the season. At receiver, it appears Parker is finally going to get his chance, getting the start ahead of Stills in place of the injured Matthews following last week’s “breakout” (four catches, 80 yards and a touchdown in deep garbage time) after not seeing so much as a target since Week 3. The rookie needs to be added in all leagues and the matchup is right this week, although there is virtually no chance I would start him given the situation in Miami at the moment.

New England Patriots
13 14 15 16
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals PHI HOU TEN NYJ
QB Tom Brady 38 26.9 26.9 1260 290 305 310 355
TD 9 3 2 2 2
INT 2 0 1 0 1
Ru Yards 10 5 0 5
Ru TD 1 0 0 1
RB LeGarrette Blount 28 10.3 9.3 225 85 60 55 25
Ru TD 2 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 25 10 5 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 1 0 2
RB Brandon Bolden 25 3.1 1.9 35 15 5 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 40 10 0 20 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 1 0 3 1
RB James White 23 11.5 7 50 10 20 10 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 170 40 45 30 55
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 18 4 5 4 5
WR Brandon LaFell 28 17.8 12.5 320 110 75 85 50
Re TD 3 2 0 1 0
Rec 21 7 5 5 4
WR Danny Amendola 29 19.6 11.6 345 65 115 70 95
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 32 6 10 7 9
TE Rob Gronkowski 26 22 14 220 INJ INJ 105 115
Re TD 1 INJ INJ 1 0
Rec 16 INJ INJ 8 8
TE Scott Chandler 30 9.3 6.5 140 55 65 0 20
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 11 4 5 0 2

What to watch for: Typically, when a team loses as much passing-game personnel as the Patriots have over the last month, it is natural to assume the team will go run-heavy. I don’t think that’s the case here for a number of reasons, not the least of which are the upcoming matchups. Amendola figures to resume his status as a PPR superstar if he can stay healthy during the stretch run (far from a given), but look for LaFell to be much more of a factor, at least for however long Gronkowski is sidelined. Chandler will obviously assume some of that responsibility – especially in the red zone – but he is simply not the same kind of physical mismatch as Gronk is between the 20s. Blount’s workload will almost certainly increase, but I do expect Bolden and White to trade off productive PPR games over the remainder of the season.

New York Jets
13 14 15 16
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals NYG TEN DAL NE
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 32 22.4 22.4 955 215 255 215 270
TD 7 2 1 2 2
INT 3 1 1 0 1
Ru Yards 95 20 30 15 30
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
RB Chris Ivory 27 12.8 11.3 285 70 60 90 65
Ru TD 2 1 0 1 0
Re Yards 45 10 15 5 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 1 2 1 2
RB Bilal Powell 26 7.1 3.9 60 20 15 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 95 25 20 15 35
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 4 3 2 4
RB Stevan Ridley 26 2.6 2.6 45 5 10 20 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 0 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 0 0 0 0 0
WR Brandon Marshall 31 17.8 12 300 65 90 70 75
Re TD 3 1 1 1 0
Rec 23 5 7 6 5
WR Eric Decker 28 19.9 13.4 355 75 85 110 85
Re TD 3 1 0 1 1
Rec 26 6 6 7 7
WR Devin Smith 23 1.6 0.9 35 15 10 0 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 1 0 1
WR Quincy Enunwa 23 5.8 4 100 25 35 15 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 7 2 2 1 2

What to watch for: The absence of green on the schedule is more of a concern for Ivory than any other Jet. Ivory has remained productive after dominating September, but he has slowed down and will get pulled frequently in the passing game anytime Powell is healthy and available to work on passing downs. The Giants (Week 13) and Patriots (Week 16) figure to be opponents that cause New York to pass a bit more often, so playing Powell in those weeks could pay off more than most owners might expect. No team has allowed fewer PPR fantasy points to the running back position than Tennessee, so that is another week owners might be disappointed in Ivory. New York’s tight ends have a total of six receptions, so Marshall and Decker are overwhelming solid bets to see at least eight targets every game and produce almost regardless of opponent. As a result, owners can feel good about continuing to trust Fitzpatrick despite the fact he has yet to throw for 300 yards and has a propensity to throw more interceptions than the average quarterback.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
13 14 15 16
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals WAS GB NYJ BUF
QB Matt Cassel 33 12.2 12.2 880 235 215 210 220
TD 4 1 1 0 2
INT 8 1 2 2 3
Ru Yards 55 5 10 30 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Darren McFadden 28 18 14.3 350 90 110 65 85
Ru TD 2 1 1 0 0
Re Yards 100 15 30 30 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 2 4 5 4
RB Robert Turbin 4.1 2.6 65 15 25 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 40 15 10 5 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 2 1 1 2
WR Dez Bryant 26 12.9 7.9 255 65 65 75 50
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 20 5 5 6 4
WR Terrance Williams 25 4.6 3.4 75 25 15 0 35
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 5 2 1 0 2
WR Cole Beasley 26 9.9 5.9 175 55 30 45 45
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 16 5 2 5 4
TE Jason Witten 33 11.9 6.9 215 50 65 55 45
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 20 5 6 5 4

What to watch for: Unfortunately, the Cowboys lost Tony Romo again (this time for the season). If there is any good news in that tidbit for fantasy owners, it’s that we know what to expect from the rest of the team when Cassel is under center. In Cassel’s three starts (all losses), McFadden averaged 28.3 touches (with no fewer than 26 in any game). Witten has essentially been the same fantasy player all season regardless of his quarterback (and hasn’t found the end zone since doing so twice in Week 1). Although the sample size is much too small, it seems reasonable to say whatever hope Williams had of being consistently fantasy-relevant down the stretch went out the door with Romo’s departure and that Bryant will probably be nothing more than a WR2 the rest of the way. Given the upcoming schedule and the quality of receivers on a particular owner’s fantasy bench, this could be the last week Bryant’s owners might feel halfway comfortable playing him.

New York Giants
13 14 15 16
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals NYJ MIA CAR MIN
QB Eli Manning 34 15.7 15.7 1085 280 275 235 295
TD 5 1 3 0 1
INT 6 2 0 3 1
Ru Yards 15 5 0 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Rashad Jennings 30 8.3 6.3 125 25 45 20 35
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 65 20 15 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 3 2 1 2
RB Shane Vereen 26 6.6 3.6 40 10 5 10 15
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 105 20 20 40 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 12 2 2 5 3
RB Andre Williams 23 2.6 2.4 30 5 15 0 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 5 0 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 1 0 0 0 1
RB Orleans Darkwa 23 3.5 2.8 90 15 30 20 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 20 5 10 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 1 1 0 1
WR Odell Beckham Jr. 22 20.9 14.4 395 85 125 50 135
Re TD 3 0 2 0 1
Rec 26 7 8 3 8
WR Rueben Randle 24 8.3 5.5 160 40 55 25 40
Re TD 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 11 3 3 2 3
WR Dwayne Harris 27 11 6.8 210 65 30 75 40
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 17 5 2 6 4
TE Will Tye 23 5.6 3.1 125 45 20 35 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 2 3 2

What to watch for: Quite frankly, the Giants’ “running game” is a joke. Vereen is the only player to score double-digit PPR fantasy points since the shootout with the Saints in Week 8 and New York seems to have no desire to make him a consistent part of the offense. (This after talking about how much big-play ability he added to the team this offseason.) As such, the ability for the Giants to move the ball each week relies heavily on how often Harris and/or Tye are involved since Beckham is essentially the one constant. For what it’s worth, New York seems to be going back to the same late-season approach it used with OBJ last year: over the last three games, Beckham is averaging 15.7 targets (almost right at the pace he averaged in Weeks 14-17 a season ago). It’s going to be tough to expect the same kind of production he posted last year with the cornerbacks he’s likely to see over the next month (Darrelle Revis, Josh Norman and Xavier Rhodes), but I still expect my projections above to be his floor over that time. ESPN New York reported Wednesday that it is unlikely Revis will play this week, so feel free to upgrade OBJ’s projection accordingly.

Philadelphia Eagles
13 14 15 16
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals NE BUF ARI WAS
QB Sam Bradford 27 15.6 15.6 1095 290 240 255 310
TD 4 1 1 0 2
INT 3 1 2 0 0
Ru Yards 10 5 5 0 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB DeMarco Murray 27 13.3 10 230 50 65 40 75
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 110 30 15 25 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 13 3 2 3 5
RB Ryan Mathews 27 13 11.7 185 INJ 45 55 85
Ru TD 2 INJ 1 0 1
Re Yards 45 INJ 10 20 15
Re TD 0 INJ 0 0 0
Rec 4 INJ 1 2 1
RB Darren Sproles 32 8.6 5.1 30 15 5 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 115 55 10 35 15
Re TD 1 1 0 0 0
Rec 14 6 2 4 2
WR Jordan Matthews 23 13.4 8.9 235 55 65 40 75
Re TD 2 0 1 0 1
Rec 18 4 6 3 5
WR Nelson Agholor 22 4.6 2.6 105 10 20 35 40
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 8 1 2 2 3
WR Josh Huff 23 2 1.3 50 35 15 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 2 1 0 0
WR Riley Cooper 27 1.6 0.9 35 0 10 0 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 1 0 2
WR Miles Austin 31 1.6 0.9 35 0 10 25 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 3 0 1 2 0
TE Zach Ertz 24 9 5 200 50 30 55 65
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 16 4 2 5 5
TE Brent Celek 30 8.3 5.3 150 40 55 20 35
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 12 3 4 2 3

What to watch for: I’ll be interested to read all the different injury stories that come out after the season regarding the Eagles’ receivers. Until then, I think it’s reasonable to assume that Matthews is a low-end WR3 at best and that my projections above probably represent his ceiling. If there is one bit of good news I can share regarding fantasy players from Philadelphia, it is that no team in the NFC East is out of it, so there doesn’t figure to be a lot of “playing for next year”. Owners that want some part of the Philadelphia passing game might want to invest in tight ends because they represent the only upside this offense has right now, although even Celek and Ertz’s upside is capped by a brutal upcoming schedule. It would be nice to see Philadelphia opt for more of a split backfield (in order to get Mathews the number of touches he deserves in an offense more suited to his talent), but I highly doubt that will happen. Mathews is trying to come back from a concussion as we speak, which obviously decreases whatever shot he has to make that happen.

Washington Redskins
13 14 15 16
Pos Player Age PPR Non Totals DAL CHI BUF PHI
QB Kirk Cousins 27 17.8 17.8 1090 250 280 260 300
TD 5 1 1 1 2
INT 2 1 0 1 0
Ru Yards 15 5 0 10 0
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Alfred Morris 26 7.1 6.1 160 40 65 30 25
Ru TD 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 25 5 0 15 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 4 1 0 2 1
RB Matt Jones 22 9 7.3 150 25 40 30 55
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 80 25 35 10 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 7 2 3 1 1
RB Chris Thompson 24 4.8 2.3 25 5 10 5 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 65 20 15 10 20
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 3 2 2 3
WR Pierre Garcon 29 9.5 6 180 35 50 30 65
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 14 3 4 2 5
WR DeSean Jackson 28 14.9 10.4 355 70 100 65 120
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 18 4 5 3 6
WR Jamison Crowder 22 7.5 4.5 120 20 15 55 30
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 12 2 2 5 3
TE Jordan Reed 25 15.4 9.6 265 75 65 75 50
Re TD 2 1 1 0 0
Rec 23 7 5 6 5

What to watch for: Remember a few months ago when Niles Paul overtook Reed as a starter because he was a “more complete tight end”? Washington leads the division now and may end up winning it, but it probably won’t come as a result of the Redskins “catching fire”. On the surface, it would appear Morris has at least earned the right to lead this backfield committee, but I think his recent “emergence” as much more to do with two of the last three opponents’ incompetence than it does anything else. Washington running backs have accounted for only five touchdowns this season (four by Jones, including all three of the team’s rushing scores) and it would probably take the greenest of green matchups for me to play one the rest of the season. If anything, Jones has shown some big-play ability in the passing game. The Redskins are fairly simple to figure out in the passing game and will only go as far as Jackson and Reed take them. Garcon has become a non-factor and Crowder, who came inches short of scoring a red-zone touchdown last week, has seemingly taken a back seat to Jackson and Reed after initially appearing to be an equal partner following Jackson’s return.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.