Based on the e-mails, tweets and conversations I’ve had with people over the last week or two, there are more than a few people that want what I want: a Big Board.

Every year, I spend way too much time in the football lab trying to dissect as many variables as I feel are necessary in order to reach a “smart” weekly projection for each player. It’s not a bad life, but I’m always happy to get through July because I can finally learn what each of my loyal readers wants to know: how does it affect the Big Boards? As much as it may surprise everyone, I still do not know who my No. 1 overall player is for this season…that is a present I allow myself to unwrap only after I have completed four intensive weeks of game-by-game projections.

A good portion of the fantasy football world is familiar with the Big Boards, but I’ll offer a quick summary for those who may not be. My “Big Board” is my one and only draft-day tool that essentially provides me with one-stop shopping for just about everything I consider during the course of the draft. The last month has been about getting to the point where I can stack up each player against his peers at his position as well as across all of the other fantasy positions. I have enjoyed a great amount of success since creating the PMA process back in 2008 and I have found it also serves me quite well in auction-style drafting as well. (Speaking of auctions, I will be doing “Art of the Auction” once again this season…look for it sometime in the next 1-2 weeks.) Based on the e-mails I receive, it appears many others have experienced similar success with the Big Boards. However, I’d be the first to admit that even with the best draft-day tools at your disposal, fantasy football is often won by the moves made during the season. Like the real thing, the draft only sets the stage for what we hope is a successful four-month run.

But before we can get to the first of my three Big Boards next week, we need to resolve the here and now. And this week, that means we will take our fourth and final look at my game-by-game breakdown of each division. By now, many readers understand my methodology: securing as many good matchups during the regular season (and particularly the fantasy playoffs) as possible. In its early years, football was about winning the physical battle and imposing your will on the other team. While that part of football is unlikely to ever change, offensive football now is about creating mismatches. For example, slot receivers were rarely ever featured and often the team’s third-best receiver as recently as 10 years ago. Now, many teams realize the advantages of plugging their top receiver (or even their tight end) into that spot. If our job as owners is to make sure we put our players in the best position to succeed (as any good coach should), then why wouldn’t we want as many good matchups in our favor as possible?

In case you were wondering how we got here, the following links will enable you to access each of my last three division-by-division breakdowns: the AFC and NFC East, the AFC and NFC North and the AFC and NFC South. At this time next week, I will have completed a Big Board for owners in PPR, non-PPR and half-point PPR leagues.

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the Denver Broncos’ projection. Wes Welker does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) he is primarily a slot receiver and very few of the nickel corners in the league can be expected to keep up with him and 2) cornerbacks like Richard Sherman and Patrick Peterson do not typically move into the slot regardless of whether or not the offense’s top receiver does. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Sherman play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. And really, that is just the tip of the iceberg when I hammer out these projections. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this. One thing that I feel like I need to make crystal clear is that no matchup is static. In other words, multiple factors (such as the player’s talent level, a defense’s demonstrated ability to raise their performance level at home, etc.) are considered for each player at every position when weighing what color any matchup “deserves”. Sometimes, that means one running back will receive a red whereas his teammate will be handed a yellow. Similarly, a slippery slot receiver will typically not get a red because most of the league’s top corners do not play inside.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2014.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC West

Matchup analysis: Manning is an every-week starter and, while there are a handful of defenses on Denver’s schedule that can rush the passer, only Seattle (Week 3), Arizona (Week 5) and New England (Week 9) have the personnel in the back end to cause owners any concern; the same three opponents are the only ones that should bother Demaryius Thomas owners as well. Manning’s ability to consistently get the ball out of his hands within about 2.5 seconds means defensive linemen/linebackers almost have to come unblocked or cleanly beat their man in order to affect him. Part of that quick-hitting passing game is because of Welker, whose most formidable matchups in the slot should be Seattle’s Byron Maxwell (depending on who wins the No. 3 cornerback job in Seahawks’ camp), New England’s Kyle Arrington and San Diego rookie CB Jason Verrett. Sanders should be able to spend a bit of time in the slot, but there is little doubt as the smaller and speedy outside complement to Demaryius Thomas, he’ll be affected by the Broncos’ schedule slightly more than any other receiver. His worst games should come against teams like the Chiefs (Weeks 2 and 13) and Rams (Week 11) that can generate a quick pass rush and make it difficult for him to get downfield as quickly. Julius Thomas’ slate isn’t as green as the other top fantasy tight ends, but he should have no problems matching last year’s totals (if not exceed them) since he is clearly one of the top two red-zone options now that Decker is gone. Much like everything else when it comes to players that play with Manning, Ball should be fine despite a treacherous schedule (at least for most teams, as we will discover with the rest of the teams in this division) since he will operate almost exclusively against favorable looks. The Seahawks, Jets (Week 6) and San Francisco (Week 7, if LB Navarro Bowman is back and mostly healthy by then) are about the only run defenses that should expect to contain Ball.

Matchup analysis: Starting with Kansas City and extending through the last two teams we’ll discuss in this division, the schedule may be too much for any non-superstar. Although Charles escapes any red on his schedule because of his combination of all-around skills and playmaking ability, one only needs to look at Davis’ line to get a sense of how quickly things could go south if Charles is anything less than what he was last season. Even most casual fans know about the vaunted defenses in the NFC West, but all the AFC West teams will also face a number of stout run defenses in the AFC East as well. In fact, the case could be made that the only positive matchups for the Chiefs’ running game all season are against Oakland (Weeks 12 and 15). Charles should still be one of the highest-scoring backs in fantasy again in 2014 because he should be a solid bet for another 60-plus catches and 500-plus yards out of the backfield, but it will be nearly impossible for him to be as consistently good as last year. Beyond Charles, Bowe has a chance to surprise if his offseason endeavors (hiring a personal trainer and nutritionist for the first time in his career) pay off. Still, he may not be fantasy asset until after the team’s Week 6 bye since he figures to face Denver’s Aqib Talib, Miami’s Brent Grimes and New England’s Darrelle Revis – all of whom should shadow him – in succession from Weeks 2-4. Kansas City resorted to using Bowe out of the slot more during the second half and would be wise to do so again if it has any hope of getting a decent year from its top receiver. Smith also caps Bowe’s upside due to his relative unwillingness to take shots downfield. Facing this kind of difficult schedule, it is not a good idea to be limited to a small-ball offense. All five of the red and all three of the yellow matchups for Smith are solid bets to be down weeks for him, meaning over half of his fantasy schedule may lead to low-end QB2 numbers.

Matchup analysis: Raider fans, feel free to look away…this one might sting a little bit. Oakland has one of the more brutal treks to fantasy glory that I can remember (combining talent with likely matchups). The Jets, Texans and Patriots (Weeks 1-3) could all wind up as top 10-12 run defenses. Even if we call the Chargers and Cardinals neutral matchups (Arizona was the stingiest defense for opposing backs last season, but I doubt a repeat is in order without either one of its middle linebackers returning and S Tyrann Mathieu injured), there is still a three-game run from Weeks 8-10 that will be difficult to manage. And if that isn’t enough, the Rams (Week 14), the Niners (Week 15) and the Bills (Week 16) all should have little trouble clamping down on Jones-Drew or McFadden after they get done whipping Oakland’s porous front five. Schaub was supported by a solid ground game for most of his time in Houston, but he isn’t going to have that working for him in 2014. Eight matchups against the AFC East and NFC West (plus one more game against what should be a vastly improved Denver defense) should be more than enough reason to avoid just about any Raider. I cannot recall seeing a tougher stretch for a No. 1 receiver that the schedule Jones will likely face: Revis (Week 3), Grimes (Week 4), Peterson (Week 7), Cleveland’s Joe Haden (Week 8), Seattle’s dynamic duo of Sherman and Maxwell (Week 9) and Talib (Week 10) are all either the top “shadow” corners in the league or play for the team that possesses arguably the best secondary in the league. Every NFL player has a chance to succeed against overwhelming odds at some point, but Jones has virtually no shot at producing WR3 numbers over that seven-game period. Streater is probably the more desirable option if every defense assumes Jones is the top threat, but his upside is limited as well since Schaub’s starting job is not exactly guaranteed. Carr is a better talent than Schaub, but his footwork and ability to stand up to the rush are big question marks. The Raiders would be wise to sit him all year in order to give him a better line to work behind in 2015, but that probably isn’t going to happen.

Matchup analysis: So who is a fan of Mathews repeating his breakout season? Not me. The Chargers’ four-game stretch to wrap up the fantasy season is a host of teams I expect to possess top 10 run defenses this season. The first half is no picnic either, which means it would be wise to consider selling Mathews as quickly as possible (perhaps after Week 6 or 7) if you draft him. Not only should owners still question his durability and relative lack of involvement in the passing game, but Donald Brown could also steal a few more snaps than Ronnie Brown did in 2013. In short, Mathews will be hard-pressed to deliver consistent RB2 numbers. Much like Sproles in the past and some other pass-catching backs we’ve discussed this year, Woodhead’s matchups figure to matter less than game situation. With the multitude of good or great defense on this schedule, there’s a fairly decent chance Woodhead will end up being more valuable than Mathews (at least in PPR leagues) since the Chargers probably won’t be enjoy the same ball-control success they had last season. Were it not for the reports of Allen’s increased speed, I might be tempted to throw him into the same bust-worthy group as Mathews. However, the combination of his ability to make contested catches and Rivers’ ability to pick apart a defense is enough for me to say that he should have a decent chance at matching his production from a season ago, although his playoff slate is just as brutal as Mathews. Much like Allen, Rivers should have a fairly soft middle portion of the schedule and generate most of his production over that time. He may end up as a top-10 quarterback again this season, but he’s going to be difficult to count on when owners will need him the most.

NFC West

Matchup analysis: Ellington’s first half should be where he does his most damage, particularly if San Francisco (Week 3) finds its run defense is merely average without Bowman. However, there is no denying that Ellington will be difficult to depend on for huge numbers – even with a heavier workload – after about Week 10 since it could be argued that Arizona faces three teams that possess the best defensive lines in the NFL five times in the final seven games. Thanks to the influx of NFC East defenses in the 2014 schedule, the passing game figures to enjoy a much smoother ride, although expectations will need to be lowered around fantasy playoff time if St. Louis’ pass rush is ferocious enough by Week 15 that it can make up for its shortcomings in the secondary (much like Carolina last year) and Seattle remains the best defense in the league. At the very least, Palmer should be a very good bye-week/matchup-based starter through about the first 10-11 weeks of the season. It is important to remember that Fitzgerald has dealt some of the worst quarterbacking in the league in 2012 and a hamstring injury for a good chunk of 2013, so it might be a bit too early to say he is already on the decline. If he can avoid the lower-body injuries in 2014, the schedule suggests a return to fantasy glory could be in store. Arians plans to use Fitzgerald out of the slot more often as he grows older – a move that can only help his consistency. Floyd essentially has the same “matchup schedule” as Fitzgerald, although his production figures to be more inconsistent than Fitzgerald’s since he will remain outside and won’t benefit from the same quick-hitters that Fitzgerald will. Also keep an eye on Brown, who has garnered Antonio Brown and T.Y. Hilton comparisons from Arians. If he continues to impress, he could force Ginn into a WR4/returner role and pick up the production left behind by Andre Roberts.