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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Game by Game Projections - AFC & NFC South
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/29/14

East | North | South | West

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Along with excitement that football is near, the first week of training camp usually brings about its share of injuries – most of which only seem to be of the season-ending variety. Last year, Jeremy Maclin and Dennis Pitta were among the first notable players to go down. This year hasn’t claimed any big names yet, but the season-ending injuries to Vick Ballard and Kendall Hunter should serve as a pretty good reminder that no team – fantasy or real – is ever too deep. A couple of months ago, the San Francisco 49ers appeared to have five potentially capable running backs fighting for four spots. Now, they have an aging vet (Frank Gore), a second-round rookie that never made it through a full season in college (Carlos Hyde) and a back in Marcus Lattimore that is still being treated with kid gloves and has admitted he needs to cross a mental hurdle nearly two years after his horrific college knee injury.

Season-ending injuries at any time of the year are unfortunate. However, if they are going to happen, fantasy owners should be thankful for the ones that happen now as opposed to Week 1 or Week 2. Ballard and Hunter’s absences aren’t going to be felt nearly as much as Maclin and Pitta’s were last year, but don’t think for a second that another one (or handful) isn’t/aren’t coming in the next few weeks. For all the safety measures that have been instituted into football in recent years, it is still a violent and cruel sport. Just like the real game, the fantasy teams and owners that find themselves playing for something at the end of the season typically are the ones that either avoided key injuries and/or handled adversity the best.

Two weeks ago, I kicked off my sixth year of projecting each player on every team game-by-game, two divisions at a time. Last week, I provided a look inside the AFC and NFC North. This week, we’ll dive inside the AFC and NFC South.

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the Indianapolis Colts’ projections. T.Y. Hilton does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) there is a lack of upper-echelon cornerbacks on his schedule and 2) most of the top cornerbacks he could face in a given week – such as Denver’s Aqib Talib or Cleveland’s Joe Haden – will either guard Reggie Wayne or not follow Hilton when he moves into the slot. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players such as Philadelphia’s Brandon Boykin can get exposed if they play anywhere but the slot. Most receivers see a lot of time on both sides of the formation (left and right) while the majority of today’s cornerbacks remain on one side. And really, that is just the tip of the iceberg when I hammer out these projections. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

  1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks.

  2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.

  3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.

  4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2014.

Key to the table below:

PPR Avg - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Avg - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.


AFC South

 Houston Texans
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
WAS OAK NYG BUF DAL IND PIT TEN PHI bye CLE CIN TEN JAC IND BAL
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 31 17.9 17.9 251.1 251.1 3465 250 255 240 305 320 255 185 225 345 210 275 285 255 60 INJ
TD 19 2 2 0 1 3 1 0 1 2 2 1 2 2 0 INJ
INT 16 0 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 2 1 1 2 3 1 INJ
Ru Yards 185 30 10 20 20 5 15 10 15 25 10 15 5 5 0 INJ
Ru TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 INJ
QB Tom Savage 24 15 15 29.9 29.9 460 235 225
TD 2 1 1
INT 1 0 1
Ru Yards 15 5 10
Ru TD 0 0 0
RB Arian Foster 28 18.7 14.7 281 220 1185 80 115 70 55 120 70 60 75 60 85 75 110 65 85 60
Ru TD 7 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 475 30 20 35 25 50 40 15 25 70 10 35 20 30 50 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 61 4 3 5 3 6 5 2 3 6 2 5 4 4 6 3
RB Andre Brown 27 3.8 3.4 56.5 50.5 280 20 15 15 10 25 25 10 20 15 15 25 10 25 30 20
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 45 0 0 10 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 10 0 5 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
WR Andre Johnson 33 16.6 10.5 249.5 157.5 1275 80 80 70 85 115 70 80 75 130 55 80 125 115 60 55
Re TD 5 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
Rec 92 6 7 5 6 8 5 6 6 8 5 7 8 6 4 5
WR DeAndre Hopkins 22 12.6 8.4 188.5 126.5 905 65 75 50 90 65 50 40 55 65 60 105 50 20 75 40
Re TD 6 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Rec 62 5 6 3 6 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 3 2 5 4
WR Mike Thomas 27 3.1 1.6 46 24 240 20 0 5 30 20 20 0 10 35 10 0 35 10 20 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 22 2 0 1 3 2 2 0 1 3 1 0 2 1 2 2
WR DeVier Posey 24 1.5 0.8 23 12 120 0 0 0 10 15 25 0 20 0 10 15 0 0 25 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 2 0
TE Garrett Graham 28 8.7 5.5 104.5 65.5 415 30 35 45 55 15 20 INJ 40 10 35 INJ INJ 45 35 50
Re TD 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 1 0 0 INJ INJ 1 0 1
Rec 39 3 3 4 5 2 2 INJ 3 1 3 INJ INJ 5 3 5
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz 22 7 4.6 104.5 68.5 445 25 45 25 10 40 25 45 0 35 25 30 55 30 20 35
Re TD 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 36 2 3 2 1 3 2 4 0 2 2 3 4 3 2 3

General overview: Questions abound at just about every skill position in Houston. On the surface, the Texans have one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. Or do they? Fitzpatrick is a notorious fast starter with a better supporting cast than he has probably ever had. For years, the cold and windy Buffalo winters received the blame for his second-half letdowns. This season, the Ivy League gunslinger’s last outdoor/non-warm weather game during the fantasy season figures to be in Cleveland in Week 11. Fitzpatrick is far from the only question mark in Houston, however, as the offense figures to revolve around Foster, but is he going to be healthy enough to carry it? New HC Bill O’Brien has already stated that he sees the injury-prone Brown as a two-down back only, so if Foster is truly in the decline phase portion of his career already and/or suffers another long-term injury, then Houston is in trouble. The other major question mark: how quickly Johnson will acclimate himself to O’Brien’s playbook after missing OTAs? Fitzpatrick reportedly became fast on-field friends with Hopkins during offseason practices, so is this the year in which Johnson begins to drop off from the 80-100 catch wideout we have come to know and love? At tight end, Graham will immerse himself into the “F” role (Aaron Hernandez’s old spot with O’Brien’s Patriots earlier in this decade) while Ryan Griffin and Fiedorowicz battle it out at “Y” (Rob Gronkowski’s position). None of the Texans’ options are as talented as New England’s, so who wins out between Griffin and Fiedorowicz and will it matter in fantasy?

Matchup analysis: If the extra time he had off last season proves to be helpful to his body, then Foster has a wonderful opportunity to enjoy the kind of season that made him a fantasy superstar since his 2010 breakout. Most of the best run defenses he figures to face are from the AFC North, although only Baltimore (Week 16) has a great chance to be among the best in the league. However, one poorly-placed matchup in the fantasy title game shouldn’t be enough to keep owners from investing into him as a RB2 because whatever ills his improved offensive line doesn’t cure, volume should. O’Brien has already suggested Foster will also fill the Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead role in his offense as well, meaning the soon-to-be sixth-year veteran’s only roadblock to another huge fantasy season is his ability to carry another massive workload. The story is very much the same for Johnson and Hopkins, who both have exceedingly smooth schedules in the first half of the season as only the Giants’ much-improved secondary in Week 3 can really match up to them talent-wise. Johnson will also get challenged by Buffalo’s Stephon Gilmore (Week 4), Haden in Week 11 and perhaps Indianapolis’ Vontae Davis (on occasion) in Weeks 6 and 15, but all are battles he is more than capable of winning. Hopkins probably has it even easier, with Pittsburgh’s Cortez Allen (Week 7) possibly the best cornerback he will see outside of the Giants’ Prince Amukamara (Week 3) in the first half of the season. Cleveland (Week 11), Cincinnati (Week 12) and Baltimore could all be top-level pass defenses by the second half of the season, but I don’t see a defense with two near-elite corners capable of keeping both Johnson and Hopkins in check all game. Of course, all this bodes well for Fitzpatrick, who could easily maintain respectable fantasy QB2 numbers all season long and even has an outside shot at finishing among the top 15-16 at his position if keeps the job all year (which he should do if he stays healthy).

 Indianapolis Colts
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
DEN PHI JAC TEN BAL HOU CIN PIT NYG bye NE JAC WAS CLE HOU DAL
QB Andrew Luck 24 24.5 24.5 367.4 367.4 4310 320 285 320 245 260 280 260 300 285 245 310 345 245 280 330
TD 27 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 3
INT 10 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 0
Ru Yards 290 20 35 10 30 15 35 25 5 10 15 25 25 15 20 5
Ru TD 4 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
RB Trent Richardson 24 14.6 11.4 219 171 990 60 75 50 85 50 70 45 60 85 35 65 75 75 60 100
Ru TD 7 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 300 25 30 15 15 10 25 35 10 20 35 10 30 15 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 48 3 5 3 2 2 4 5 2 3 5 2 4 3 2 3
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 28 6 4.5 59.5 44.5 275 20 30 30 45 20 30 50 20 INJ INJ INJ 10 20 INJ INJ
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 INJ INJ
Re Yards 110 20 10 15 10 10 0 15 10 INJ INJ INJ 10 10 INJ INJ
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 INJ INJ
Rec 15 3 2 2 2 1 0 2 1 INJ INJ INJ 1 1 INJ INJ
RB Dan Herron 25 2.2 1.9 33.5 28.5 195 10 10 15 25 0 10 0 15 10 20 30 10 0 15 25
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 30 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 5 0 0 10 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0
WR Reggie Wayne 35 14.5 9.2 217.5 138.5 1025 50 75 85 65 65 70 75 50 60 35 100 85 75 70 65
Re TD 6 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0
Rec 79 5 6 7 5 5 5 7 5 4 2 6 6 4 7 5
WR T.Y. Hilton 24 15.7 10.8 235.5 162.5 1205 110 35 115 40 85 125 40 90 70 25 70 125 65 100 110
Re TD 7 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1
Rec 73 7 2 6 2 5 8 3 5 5 2 6 7 4 5 6
WR Hakeem Nicks 26 10 6.5 119.5 77.5 535 40 85 30 45 35 INJ 50 60 50 50 40 20 30 INJ INJ
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 0 INJ 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 INJ INJ
Rec 42 3 5 2 4 3 INJ 4 5 4 4 3 2 3 INJ INJ
TE Coby Fleener 25 6.3 4 94.5 59.5 415 25 10 35 15 25 25 10 20 25 40 30 50 10 50 45
Re TD 3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 35 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 5 1 4 4
TE Dwayne Allen 24 8.6 5.6 129.5 83.5 535 30 40 20 45 30 10 15 40 55 60 45 25 40 20 60
Re TD 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 46 2 3 2 4 3 1 2 3 4 6 4 2 3 2 5

General overview: The Colts are an interesting prohibitive favorite in their division in that they are still a team in transition. Given his defensive background, HC Chuck Pagano probably would love nothing more than for Indianapolis to be a smash-mouth team on offense that wins just about as many games on defense as it does on offense. The defense has improved over his first two years of leadership, but Richardson’s 2013 dud following his early-season trade from Cleveland has the running game in roughly the same spot now as it was when Pagano arrived, especially after sparkplug Donald Brown bolted for the Chargers. For all the good things GM Ryan Grigson has done since he took over in Indianapolis, he has yet to add a blue-chip offensive lineman to the mix. The Colts did use their first pick in May – a second-round selection – on versatile OL Jack Mewhort, but his addition was about the only notable one on a unit that needs more power to make Richardson is the right fit in Indianapolis. There’s not a lot of evidence that Richardson is “the man” after two years in the league, but one only needs to remember he scored 12 total touchdowns and rushed for nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie in 2012 behind a Browns’ offensive line that was essentially the same one that could not support one running back worth owning following his trade. Coming off an ACL injury, Wayne should be the biggest question mark, but he may not even be that at his own position since Nicks inked a one-year deal in the offseason. The good news is that Nicks probably can’t be any worse than Darrius Heyward-Bey was, but the bad news is the ex-Giant hasn’t looked like himself since 2011. Have his chronic foot injuries made him a league-average receiver already? Was he trying to “protect himself” in his contract year last year? Or will the move from Eli Manning to Luck be enough to revive his career?

Matchup analysis: After OC Pep Hamilton stuck with the run last year long after he should have realized he didn’t have the linemen necessary to carry out a power rushing attack, expect him to be less stubborn in his second season as a play-caller against a bevy of opponents that lack the depth to contain Luck and all of his weapons in the passing game. Luck doesn’t have the easiest of schedules, but it is also far from the most difficult since this division and the NFC East contain a number of soft pass defenses, meaning the biggest impediment to his rise to the top of the fantasy quarterback mountain could be Hamilton. Owners have a right to be leery about a player like Wayne entering his age-35 season and coming off such a serious injury, but given the fact that he is no longer the sole focus of defensive coordinators trying to stop the Colts’ passing game, he represents solid value in the eighth round. Although Revis (Week 11) and Haden (Week 14) may be able to shadow the old man, Wayne has plenty of green and white boxes to be a top-end WR3 in fantasy if his knee holds up. Hilton carried the passing game at times following Wayne’s season-ending injury and probably shouldn’t see that big of a hit to his numbers even if the longtime vet plays all 16 games. Hilton, like Randall Cobb last week, works out of the slot so much that he is going to be a threat to blow up every week; most defenses simply do not have a slot corner capable of defending him. As for Richardson, he still has enough working against him. In addition to the fact that his power game does not fit well with the Colts’ mostly-finesse front five, the AFC North and South should contain a fair number of solid run defenses. Denver (Week 1) should be improved in that regard as well, while teams like the Broncos, Eagles (Week 2) and Redskins (Week 13) could all make the game enough of a track meet where Richardson becomes a bit of a forgotten man.

 Jacksonville Jaguars
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
PHI WAS IND SD PIT TEN CLE MIA CIN DAL bye IND NYG HOU BAL TEN
QB Chad Henne 29 13.5 13.5 162.3 162.3 2670 210 300 235 195 185 285 205 230 175 220 190 240 BEN BEN BEN
TD 13 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 2 0 1 BEN BEN BEN
INT 15 2 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 2 1 3 2 BEN BEN BEN
Ru Yards 75 5 5 0 10 5 5 5 10 10 5 5 10 BEN BEN BEN
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BEN BEN BEN
QB Blake Bortles 22 18.9 18.9 56.6 56.6 715 250 185 280
TD 5 2 1 2
INT 5 2 2 1
Ru Yards 80 35 15 30
Ru TD 0 0 0 0
RB Toby Gerhart 27 16.1 13.2 225.5 184.5 1110 80 110 55 85 100 75 45 INJ 70 125 80 70 70 55 90
Ru TD 6 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 INJ 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 315 20 35 50 15 10 35 15 INJ 20 10 20 30 15 15 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 41 3 4 5 2 1 5 3 INJ 2 1 3 4 2 3 3
RB Denard Robinson 23 3.8 3 53.5 42.5 265 25 15 15 35 10 35 15 10 15 10 40 20 15 5 INJ
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 INJ
Re Yards 100 10 15 10 0 15 0 5 0 0 25 10 10 0 0 INJ
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ
Rec 11 1 2 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 INJ
RB Jordan Todman 24 3.5 2.8 42 33 180 10 0 20 10 10 0 25 55 INJ INJ INJ 10 5 10 25
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 90 0 0 0 0 0 10 15 20 INJ INJ INJ 0 20 10 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 INJ INJ INJ 0 1 1 2
WR Cecil Shorts 26 13.5 8.3 175 108 840 65 110 70 40 65 70 INJ INJ 50 75 40 50 70 60 75
Re TD 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Rec 67 5 7 6 3 5 7 INJ INJ 4 4 3 5 7 5 6
WR Marqise Lee 22 9 5.8 135.5 87.5 635 35 55 20 40 55 70 10 25 60 45 30 40 60 25 65
Re TD 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 48 3 4 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 3 4 4 2 4
WR Allen Robinson 21 6.7 4.2 100 63 450 30 40 10 50 20 20 65 55 15 30 30 15 30 10 30
Re TD 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 37 2 3 1 5 2 2 4 5 1 2 3 1 2 1 3
WR Ace Sanders 22 2.7 1.4 30 15 150 SUS SUS SUS SUS 10 10 25 30 10 0 10 20 0 20 15
Re TD 0 SUS SUS SUS SUS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 SUS SUS SUS SUS 1 1 2 3 1 0 1 2 0 2 2
TE Marcedes Lewis 30 8.1 5.1 121 76 520 40 35 55 20 10 40 40 60 20 25 30 35 45 30 35
Re TD 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Rec 45 3 3 5 2 1 3 4 5 2 2 3 3 4 2 3
TE Clay Harbor 27 4 2.5 60 38 260 10 0 20 30 0 30 20 35 0 10 20 40 10 15 20
Re TD 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Rec 22 1 0 2 2 0 3 2 3 0 1 1 3 1 1 2

General overview: When a team ranks last in scoring in this offensive era, changes (and usually a lot of them) will be made. The Jaguars got a much-needed infusion of youth and talent through the draft and free agency, perhaps leaving fantasy owners with a player or two they can count on for the majority of the 2014 season. The most important addition for fantasy purposes is Gerhart, who is probably one of three or four runners with a realistic at 300 carries if he can hold up for 16 games. Jacksonville’s secondary figures to remain a weak link to its defense, but for the games in which it can hold up, Gerhart should push 20-25 carries in those contests because the Jags should have a much better run defense. Denard Robinson is reportedly recovered from the nerve issue that dogged him at the end of his college career as well as his rookie season and could become the team’s preferred choice as the change-of-pace back. Todman proved he could handle that role as well last year, although it should be said that HC Gus Bradley has made it clear that is all he sees Robinson and Todman as – change-of-pace backs. With the selection of second-round WRs Lee and Allen Robinson, Jacksonville should eventually have enough firepower to drastically improve their 15.4 point-per-game mark from a season ago. Furthermore, the two rookies should allow Shorts to spend much more time in the slot, enabling Henne to target his favorite receiver against the defense’s nickelback on a more regular basis. As far as Henne is concerned, the odds seem long that he will start all 16 games. Despite all of its improvements, Jacksonville will probably be out of the playoff race by around Week 15 or 16, which would give the coaching staff a nice window in which to evaluate Bortles before turning things over to him in 2015.

Matchup analysis: Just like Maurice Jones-Drew has been in recent years from the running back position, Gerhart will easily be the most relevant Jaguar in fantasy. Volume – be it on the ground or through the air – should not be a problem for him, which means durability and game situation will make more of a difference to him than matchups in a lot of cases, although he is probably going to get his yards regardless since he is an asset as a receiver. As a result, the ex-Viking could see a lot of work in the passing game through the first five weeks simply because each team has the weapons to pick apart Jacksonville’s secondary. Weeks 6-10 offer less dynamic offenses, while the five post-bye games provide a healthy mixture of both. It is virtually impossible to predict what Shorts might do for a number of reasons: 1) he has yet to play a full season, 2) he’s never consistently had as much talent around him at his position as he does now and 3) so much of his production in previous years has come when the team is trailing that it is hard to discern what he will do if and when the team is more competitive (which it should be this season). Although Shorts isn’t going to get any red boxes on his schedule, it bears mentioning that he’ll have some difficult fantasy matchups because of who his quarterback(s) will be. Most of his yellows would be reds if he was simply going to remain an outside receiver only. Allen Robinson will be Shorts’ direct backup, so if/when Shorts gets hurt, he could be the most valuable receiver on the team. With that said, Lee is the better redraft pick for now and should bring a bit of the big play back to the offense if he is recovered from his college injuries. It should be fairly obvious as No. 2 and 3 options in a run-heavy offense with a below-average quarterback, but neither of the rookies should be trusted as anything more than low-end WR4 this year.

 Tennessee Titans
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
KC DAL CIN IND CLE JAC WAS HOU bye BAL PIT PHI HOU NYG NYJ JAC
QB Jake Locker 26 20 20 239.7 239.7 2955 275 240 280 235 275 280 285 210 245 90 INJ INJ INJ 235 305
TD 18 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 3 2
INT 12 2 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 INJ INJ INJ 1 2
Ru Yards 255 20 15 25 20 35 15 30 20 20 15 INJ INJ INJ 15 25
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0
QB Charlie Whitehurst 32 13.6 13.6 54.4 54.4 860 170 250 215 225
TD 5 1 2 1 1
INT 6 1 2 1 2
Ru Yards 20 0 5 10 5
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0
RB Bishop Sankey 21 15.3 12.5 229.5 187.5 1145 75 100 80 100 55 105 60 85 60 85 70 60 70 85 55
Ru TD 6 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
Re Yards 310 20 5 15 50 20 0 50 15 20 35 15 0 25 10 30
Re TD 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 42 3 1 3 5 2 0 6 3 3 4 2 0 4 2 4
RB Shonn Greene 29 4.9 4.3 49 43 220 20 20 10 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 10 15 25 35 30 15 40
Ru TD 3 0 1 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 30 5 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 5 5 0 0 5 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 6 1 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 1 1 0 0 1 2
RB Dexter McCluster 26 8.6 5.2 120.5 72.5 145 15 0 0 25 25 0 15 10 20 INJ 10 0 10 5 10
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 400 30 25 15 25 20 40 30 15 45 INJ 55 30 15 15 40
Re TD 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 INJ 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 48 4 3 2 3 3 4 3 2 5 INJ 5 4 2 3 5
WR Kendall Wright 24 14.4 8.9 215.5 133.5 1035 65 80 110 65 55 120 60 45 35 90 75 65 30 80 60
Re TD 5 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 82 4 6 9 6 4 7 6 5 3 6 7 5 3 6 5
WR Nate Washington 31 9.7 6 146 90 720 35 65 45 50 40 65 75 45 70 45 15 30 55 65 20
Re TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 56 3 5 3 4 3 5 5 3 6 3 2 3 4 5 2
WR Justin Hunter 23 11.5 8 161.5 112.5 705 60 35 50 25 90 30 INJ 60 20 70 45 65 25 30 100
Re TD 7 1 0 0 0 1 0 INJ 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1
Rec 49 4 3 4 2 6 2 INJ 4 2 4 3 5 1 3 6
TE Delanie Walker 30 9.5 5.6 142.5 84.5 605 50 30 45 20 50 25 70 30 55 15 40 25 75 30 45
Re TD 4 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 58 5 3 4 2 4 3 6 3 4 2 4 3 7 3 5

General overview: If new HC Ken Whisenhunt has shown us anything over the years, it is the ability to adapt his offensive scheme to his personnel. Locker completed 60-plus percent of his passes for the first time in his three-year career in 2013, but continued to be one of the more snake-bitten players at his position and has played in only 18 of 32 games over the last two years due to ailments to his hip, foot and shoulder. Although his skill-set is nearly the opposite of Whisenhunt’s last protégé in Philip Rivers, the new coach – along with OC Jason Michael – are expected to utilize the same short-passing and run-heavy approach that San Diego experienced such great success with last season. The first half of that equation will fall mostly on the shoulders of Wright, who is expected to be this regime’s (smaller but faster) version of Keenan Allen. When Hunter wasn’t either in the doghouse or on the verge of heading there, he showed a knack for taking over the game as a rookie. With nothing but positives coming out of Titans’ camp this year about Hunter, expect a huge second-year leap from him. Walker was also a bit of a revelation in 2013 and should probably expect to make a similar impact this season considering Whisenhunt (a former NFL tight end) just spent a year working with Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green. The second half of the aforementioned pass-run equation will depend on whether Tennessee got its Chris Johnson replacement right with the selection of Sankey. The top runner selected in May’s draft, Sankey brings impressive inside running ability for a back of his size (5-10, 209) to a team that owns one of the better offensive lines in the league. McCluster and Greene will steal some touches, but Sankey is a solid bet for 275-plus touches unless he completely falls on his face in the preseason.

Matchup analysis: This entire division figures to reap the benefits of trading in the NFC West for the NFC East and perhaps no AFC South coach will have a better understanding of the East than Whisenhunt, who saw the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Redskins as a play-caller with the Chargers last season. It won’t be all easy, however, as the Titans inherit the AFC North and face improved defenses in their own division. Still, Sankey has more than enough tools to succeed if Whisenhunt remains as committed to the run as he did with San Diego a season ago. While the rookie doesn’t have any lengthy green-and-white runs on his schedule, he doesn’t have any extended yellow-or-red streaks either. A healthy Greene might change things, but that is unlikely to happen. (McCluster is extremely unlikely to handle significant carries.) Owning a Titan receiver during the fantasy playoffs should be more than boom than bust, which should allow Wright to cap off another fine season in which he’ll square off against very few elite corners and move across the formation enough to generally avoid the ones he does face. Inconsistency still figures to remain a part of Hunter’s game, although outside of Cincinnati (Week 3), Baltimore (Week 10), Pittsburgh (Week 11) and the New York Giants (Week 14), there aren’t a lot of teams that have a second – much less a top – cornerback capable of dealing with his athleticism. The same can pretty much be said about Walker and the linebackers/safeties he will attract; the only potentially difficult stretch he should face is during the three weeks following the Titans’ Week 9 bye. IF Locker can stay healthy all season, expend a few struggles in the first half but mostly smooth sailing otherwise; in this offense, he should a more than capable QB2 for fantasy owners in 2014.

NFC South

 Atlanta Falcons
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NO CIN TB MIN NYG CHI BAL DET bye TB CAR CLE ARI GB PIT NO
QB Matt Ryan 29 23.1 23.1 346.2 346.2 4280 270 300 265 290 230 365 235 380 280 215 310 270 300 300 270
TD 31 2 3 3 2 1 4 1 3 1 1 3 1 2 2 2
INT 13 0 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 0 2
Ru Yards 90 5 5 0 10 10 0 5 10 0 10 10 0 10 5 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Steven Jackson 31 12.2 9.9 183 149 850 65 50 70 60 65 55 45 30 50 30 75 50 60 75 70
Ru TD 6 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 220 15 15 5 20 10 20 10 0 15 0 25 35 15 10 25
Re TD 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 34 2 3 1 4 1 3 2 0 2 0 3 5 2 2 4
RB Devonta Freeman 22 9.6 6.8 144 102 415 30 35 20 15 30 20 30 50 30 25 35 40 15 10 30
Ru TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 365 20 30 5 35 25 35 10 25 20 15 10 25 65 10 35
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 42 3 3 1 4 3 3 1 3 2 3 1 3 6 2 4
WR Roddy White 32 17.9 11.8 268.5 176.5 1225 85 115 75 55 80 115 50 105 60 80 105 90 55 85 70
Re TD 9 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1
Rec 92 6 7 6 5 8 6 4 8 5 7 9 6 4 6 5
WR Julio Jones 25 19.7 13.5 295 202 1360 90 80 135 105 65 90 75 140 90 65 75 50 100 120 80
Re TD 11 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 0
Rec 93 6 5 8 6 4 7 5 10 6 6 5 4 7 8 6
WR Harry Douglas 29 10.7 6.5 160.5 97.5 735 50 40 35 50 30 60 85 70 55 30 65 40 25 60 40
Re TD 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 63 5 3 3 5 3 6 6 7 4 3 5 3 2 5 3
TE Levine Toilolo 23 4 2.6 60.5 38.5 205 0 10 10 15 10 25 0 20 40 5 25 5 20 10 10
Re TD 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 22 0 1 1 2 1 2 0 2 4 1 3 1 2 1 1

General overview: As much as the retirement of TE Tony Gonzalez frees up White and Jones to post insane numbers, one has to wonder if the offense as a whole will drop off – especially in the red zone. The Falcons will transition into a base set of three receivers with Gonzalez out of the picture and spent the offseason trying to get a little nastier on offense by fortifying the offensive line, which should help the Falcons’ porous run game from a season ago. Gonzalez’s departure – plus the slight shift in base personnel – means Douglas has a chance at the first meaningful playing time of his career that hasn’t come as a result of White or Jones getting hurt. The additions of RG Jon Asamoah in free agency and RT Jake Matthews through the draft should shore up what was, at times, an abysmal right side of the offensive line. As a result, a minor bounce-back season from Jackson cannot be ruled out assuming he can avoid the soft-tissue injuries that have plagued him at various points throughout his career. Atlanta made have secured its future lead back in the fourth round of May’s draft with Freeman, who has done nothing but impress this offseason and is a major improvement over Jacquizz Rodgers. The Florida State alum will almost certainly start out as the third-down and “breather” back for Jackson, but the rookie carries significant upside in that he brings a burst that the veteran just doesn’t have anymore. With the necessary personnel in the passing game to get defenses to play honest, getting Freeman into space will be easier than it will be for most rookie running backs.

Matchup analysis: Ryan’s job becomes slightly more difficult now without Gonzalez wizardry in the red zone; it is safe to say that Toilolo and Douglas will not make up for the loss of the retired tight end. While Jones and White will attract more attention as a result, they will also be targeted more often out of necessity. The schedule for both players will allow that to happen with more success since only the Saints (Weeks 1 and 16), Giants (Week 5), Cardinals (Week 13) and perhaps the Bears (Week 6) and Ravens (Week 7) have much of a chance to contain one or both of the star receivers. Owners that are able to grab both as their fantasy WR1 and WR2 should be rewarded handsomely, assuming both can avoid the injuries that sabotaged their 2013 campaigns. Even though he’ll see much less action than he did last season, Douglas could make for a decent bye-week WR3 in PPR leagues since only about half of the opponents have capable nickelback options (Saints, Bengals, Giants, Bears, Ravens, Cardinals and Packers). Toilolo should pretty much be a non-factor, but one player that will benefit from Gonzalez’s absence should be Freeman. The rookie will probably be more of a niche player in his first year (suggesting his fantasy value will fluctuate more based on game situations than individual/team matchups), but the need for Ryan to find someone when he gets quick pressure should enable Freeman to push 40 receptions if he makes Rodgers an afterthought. Jackson should have a couple of pockets for decent production, although I expect the majority of the second-half slate to be up to the task of slowing him down. Still, Jackson’s work in the passing game plus his touchdown-scoring upside should make him a respectable back-end RB2 option most weeks. Ryan’s season could go south quickly if Jones and/or White get hurt again, but he has a good scheme and more than enough talent (personal as well as team) to work his way through all the yellow, especially if the offensive line makes the kind of improvement it should.

 Carolina Panthers
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
TB DET PIT BAL CHI CIN GB SEA NO PHI ATL bye MIN NO TB CLE
QB Cam Newton 25 22.6 22.6 338.9 338.9 3560 215 295 160 215 290 180 295 165 260 295 320 205 210 235 220
TD 21 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 3 2 0 1 2 1
INT 11 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 2 1 0
Ru Yards 565 35 50 20 40 70 35 40 25 55 30 25 35 20 40 45
Ru TD 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
RB DeAngelo Williams 31 8.9 7.6 133.5 114.5 665 20 40 30 65 25 30 40 75 30 15 35 105 40 85 30
Ru TD 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 240 10 0 10 5 40 5 15 0 10 10 70 45 0 5 15
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 19 1 0 1 1 3 1 2 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 2
RB Jonathan Stewart 27 8.7 7.1 112.5 92.5 580 45 50 60 30 65 45 40 30 60 35 40 50 30 INJ INJ
Ru TD 3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ
Re Yards 165 10 15 0 0 20 10 10 5 15 35 20 5 20 INJ INJ
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ
Rec 20 2 2 0 0 2 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 2 INJ INJ
RB Mike Tolbert 28 7.5 5.7 112 85 265 25 15 10 10 10 15 15 5 20 15 20 5 30 25 45
Ru TD 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1
Re Yards 225 15 20 10 15 30 15 20 15 0 25 10 10 30 10 0
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 27 2 3 1 2 4 2 3 2 0 2 1 1 3 1 0
WR Kelvin Benjamin 23 12.1 8.5 182 127 850 55 85 25 40 35 70 105 10 45 85 110 30 60 70 25
Re TD 7 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0
Rec 55 3 5 2 3 2 5 6 1 3 5 6 3 4 5 2
WR Jerricho Cotchery 32 10.2 6.5 152.5 97.5 675 35 55 65 40 45 20 50 35 70 40 30 45 50 60 35
Re TD 5 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
Rec 55 3 5 5 4 4 2 4 3 6 3 2 4 4 4 2
WR Jason Avant 31 2.9 1.5 44 22 220 10 20 10 20 0 10 0 20 35 15 35 10 0 20 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 22 1 2 1 2 0 1 0 2 3 2 3 1 0 2 2
WR Tavarres King 24 1.7 1.1 26 17 110 0 0 0 15 10 0 0 20 25 0 0 0 10 0 30
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 9 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 2
TE Greg Olsen 29 12.6 7.9 189.5 118.5 825 70 55 40 55 85 35 70 50 40 65 35 60 30 50 85
Re TD 6 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1
Rec 71 6 5 3 5 7 3 6 5 4 5 3 6 2 4 7
TE Ed Dickson 27 2.1 1.1 31.5 16.5 165 10 20 0 25 10 15 0 10 20 0 10 0 10 20 15
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 15 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 2 1

General overview: The general consensus for most of the offseason has been the Panthers will have one of the worst wide receiver corps in the league. While that statement may be partially true, it also discounts the possibility the 6-5 and 240-pound Benjamin will be a matchup nightmare from the moment he hits the field and the fact that Cotchery has been a more-than-capable second receiver in the league for some time. GM Dave Gettleman knew he was going to have to overhaul the position at some point in the near future with Steve Smith nearing the end and no one else in the pipeline that could overtake Brandon LaFell. The bigger issue is the likelihood that two former college free agents will be manning the tackle spots (LT Nate Chandler and RT Byron Bell) following the retirement of LT Jordan Gross. Chandler and Bell both graded out negatively in 2013 according to Pro Football Focus while projected RG Garry Williams played only 15 snaps last season before tearing his ACL. It’s a lot of unrest up front for a team that wants to run the football as much as the Panthers do. Add to that the age of DeAngelo Williams (31) and injury history of Stewart and there is reason to think Newton – he of the offseason ankle surgery – may have to carry this offense in the same kind of way he did as a rookie in order for the Panthers to repeat last season’s success. Olsen is the one constant besides Newton in this offense and should be as consistently targeted as any of the tight ends in the league not named Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski or Julius Thomas.

Matchup analysis: Newton’s talent as a runner and a passer is about the only thing holding me back from handing out about five more reds. While I do expect the receivers to perform at least to the level of last year’s group and Newton to be able to match his numbers from a season ago, it is certainly not out of the realm of possibility that he throws for fewer than 250 yards AND one score or less more times than he exceeds those marks. The Panthers have no shortage of teams on their schedule with top-level and/or bigger corners that can make Benjamin work for everything he gets. Since he figures to be raw as a route-runner for at least his first season, the rookie’s biggest impact will probably come as a red-zone specialist that will post the occasional big game because he is essentially being forced into the top receiver role. As his matchup line suggests, his only break might come in the three weeks sandwiching the Panthers’ Week 12 bye. Cotchery should actually end up being the more consistent fantasy receiver in 2014 and proved he was still able to make plays with Pittsburgh last year, turning 10 of his 46 catches into touchdowns. Cotchery may get some work in the slot, but there is next-to-no chance that he sniffs double-digit scores again with Olsen and Benjamin around to hog red-zone targets. Olsen’s path to fantasy relevancy isn’t as daunting as Benjamin’s, but it is far from a cakewalk either. Still, the odds are pretty good that the former Bear is going to be targeted as much this year as he was during the second half of 2013 (8.1 per game from Week 11 on, with no fewer than six in any of those weeks). September could be brutal for the running game, especially if Pittsburgh (Week 3) returns to form. Even though the path gets a little less bumpy after that, Carolina’s committee approach is going to make selecting the top runner from this backfield about as much fun as reading Bill Belichick’s mind when it comes to his backfield in New England.

 New Orleans Saints
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ATL CLE MIN DAL TB bye DET GB CAR SF CIN BAL PIT CAR CHI ATL
QB Drew Brees 35 25.5 25.5 382 382 4875 330 285 335 365 365 345 355 285 300 275 330 275 330 330 370
TD 33 1 1 3 2 2 3 3 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 3
INT 11 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 0
Ru Yards 50 0 5 5 0 5 0 5 10 0 5 0 5 5 5 0
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Pierre Thomas 29 12.1 7.8 181.5 116.5 475 35 30 55 45 20 20 35 10 30 55 30 40 20 15 35
Ru TD 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 450 35 25 55 20 20 45 50 10 40 25 15 25 10 40 35
Re TD 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 65 5 3 6 2 3 7 7 2 6 4 3 5 1 6 5
RB Khiry Robinson 24 8.3 7.6 124 114 770 50 35 70 55 35 40 70 75 35 65 55 25 35 80 45
Ru TD 5 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0
Re Yards 70 5 0 0 10 10 0 10 0 10 0 5 5 0 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 10 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 2 0
RB Mark Ingram 24 6.7 6.2 73.5 68.5 420 25 60 20 75 15 25 10 INJ INJ INJ INJ 30 55 55 50
Ru TD 4 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 1 0 0
Re Yards 25 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 10 0 0 5
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 INJ INJ INJ INJ 2 0 0 1
WR Brandin Cooks 20 12.5 8.3 187.5 124.5 125 10 25 0 0 0 10 15 0 5 20 0 0 15 0 25
Ru TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 880 50 40 25 80 55 120 40 40 65 50 30 75 55 65 90
Re TD 4 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Rec 63 3 4 2 6 4 7 3 2 3 4 5 5 3 5 7
WR Marques Colston 31 14 9.1 210 136 940 70 55 80 50 60 60 35 70 55 105 70 60 85 40 45
Re TD 7 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 1
Rec 74 5 4 7 5 4 5 3 5 4 8 5 5 7 3 4
WR Kenny Stills 22 10.7 7.5 161 113 830 50 35 75 110 35 15 85 30 70 20 70 30 60 45 100
Re TD 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Rec 48 3 3 5 5 3 1 4 2 3 1 3 3 3 4 5
TE Jimmy Graham 27 20.6 14.2 308.5 213.5 1355 85 110 100 75 155 85 105 75 50 75 100 50 85 125 80
Re TD 13 1 1 1 0 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1
Rec 95 6 8 6 5 10 6 7 5 4 6 8 4 6 9 5
TE Ben Watson 33 3.8 2.4 57 36 240 20 15 0 20 25 20 30 15 10 0 15 20 35 0 15
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 21 2 1 0 2 2 2 3 1 1 0 2 2 2 0 1

General overview: The Saints say they want to run the ball more seemingly every year. It makes some sense to do so this season with the losses of passing game cogs like Darren Sproles and Lance Moore, but this year’s rushing attack improvement may very well come as a result of the passing game having so many weapons that New Orleans will be able to run out the clock in a lot of fourth quarters. At least for fantasy purposes, Graham is every bit as dominant at tight end as Calvin Johnson is at receiver in Detroit, if not more so. Mot defenses simply do not have a linebacker or safety capable of handling Graham (not every team can use Talib on him as New England did in 2013). Stills should be in for a nice bump in playing time and fantasy numbers with Moore out of the picture, although it seems unlikely the Saints will turn a player who averaged 20 yards per catch as a rookie into a chain-mover, so expect him to retain his Devery Henderson-plus role in this offense. HC Sean Payton & Co. raised eyebrows everywhere on draft night when New Orleans traded up for Cooks, who is a plus version of Stills with serious route-running chops. Although he isn’t considered a running back (nor should he be), it has been widely assumed he will fill the void left behind by Sproles. The running game is undergoing a transition of its own, with Robinson working his way into the Saints’ three-man rotation. None of the three (Thomas, Robinson and Ingram) should be expected to be the man at any point of the season barring injury, but Robinson has a chance to nudge Ingram out of the mix if the undrafted free agent continues to impress like he did at the end of last season.

Matchup analysis: Let’s face it: there aren’t many defenses that warrant a red box against Brees (except maybe the Seahawks in Seattle), so I’m not going to make the case for any. Cleveland (Week 2) and Tampa Bay (Week 4) each offer potential yellows – as do Cincinnati (Week 11) and Pittsburgh (Week 13) – but three of the four games are at home and the one that is not is against a Browns’ secondary that probably won’t be playing up to its high-end potential quite yet. As I tried to reason why Graham won’t be able to match last year’s numbers because of the addition of a player like Cooks, it became clear that he almost has to reach those benchmarks and possibly do more since Cooks and Stills will probably be the ones responsible for picking up the 108 receptions left behind by Moore and Sproles. Unsurprisingly, Graham has a ridiculous amount of green on his schedule and will probably eclipse 100 catches for the first time in his career. The Saints’ receivers are a difficult lot to project since Colston and Graham do a lot of their damage from the slot. Cooks is probably going to see plenty of opportunity inside as well, but is just as likely to come out of the backfield a handful of times every game. In short, it makes it almost impossible to slap a red box on any of the key members of the New Orleans’ passing game. As for the running backs, Thomas seems like a good bet to repeat last year’s numbers since he is the best receiver of the bunch and seems locked into about 10 carries per game. Thomas avoids any red boxes given his contributions in the passing game, but Robinson and Ingram obviously aren’t as lucky. Both backs should benefit from the Saints playing with the lead in games – especially before the bye – but they face a difficult stretch that includes Detroit, Carolina (twice), San Francisco and the top three AFC North teams over an eight-week stretch in the second half of the season.

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pos Player Age PPR Avg NPPR Avg PPR Non Totals 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CAR STL ATL PIT NO BAL bye MIN CLE ATL WAS CHI CIN DET CAR GB
QB Josh McCown 35 18.4 18.4 276.2 276.2 3980 270 290 290 215 280 220 285 185 305 330 285 250 305 200 270
TD 21 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 0 1 2 3 0 2 1 1
INT 13 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 1 2 1 1
Ru Yards 110 10 15 0 10 10 5 0 10 5 0 0 10 15 10 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Doug Martin 25 13.9 11.3 208.5 169.5 1055 65 80 45 65 50 60 70 90 70 110 75 75 60 55 85
Ru TD 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
Re Yards 280 15 20 35 10 20 5 15 25 20 10 20 25 35 0 25
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 39 2 3 5 1 3 1 2 4 3 1 3 3 4 0 4
RB Charles Sims 23 7.6 5.1 113.5 76.5 330 15 20 30 15 25 15 25 40 25 10 25 20 25 15 25
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Re Yards 315 15 15 15 15 40 10 25 10 35 45 30 15 10 15 20
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 37 3 2 1 2 4 2 3 1 4 3 4 2 1 2 3
RB Mike James 23 2.2 1.8 32.5 27.5 185 10 10 20 10 25 10 15 20 30 5 15 0 0 5 10
Ru TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re Yards 30 0 0 5 0 10 5 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 5 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
WR Vincent Jackson 31 14.9 10.1 224 152 1100 75 110 85 50 70 40 85 45 115 105 40 60 90 70 60
Re TD 7 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
Rec 72 5 6 5 4 4 3 5 3 7 7 3 4 6 5 5
WR Mike Evans 21 13.1 9 196 135 930 70 55 80 50 30 65 55 45 85 100 60 65 65 45 60
Re TD 7 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
Rec 61 4 3 5 5 2 4 4 3 5 6 4 5 4 3 4
WR Louis Murphy 27 2 1.1 24.5 13.5 135 25 0 10 20 20 0 10 INJ INJ INJ 25 0 10 15 0
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 11 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 INJ INJ INJ 2 0 1 1 0
WR Chris Owusu 24 3.9 2.6 38.5 25.5 195 15 40 20 0 30 15 25 INJ INJ 25 INJ INJ INJ 0 25
Re TD 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 INJ INJ 0 INJ INJ INJ 0 1
Rec 13 1 2 1 0 3 2 1 INJ INJ 2 INJ INJ INJ 0 1
WR Robert Herron 22 2.8 1.4 41.5 21.5 215 0 0 0 25 20 10 0 10 20 0 20 45 40 15 10
Re TD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rec 20 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 1 2 0 2 4 3 2 1
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins 21 5.7 3.5 85 53 350 20 30 30 10 0 15 30 40 20 15 55 25 10 0 50
Re TD 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 32 2 3 3 1 0 2 2 4 2 1 5 2 1 0 4
TE Tim Wright 24 6.3 3.7 95 55 430 35 20 10 35 40 55 35 10 10 30 30 15 45 40 20
Re TD 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Rec 40 3 2 1 3 4 5 3 1 1 3 3 1 4 4 2

General overview: Upon drafting Evans and Seferian-Jenkins, new Bucs GM Jason Licht dubbed his trio (including Jackson) the “Dunkaneers” because each player could easily be mistaken for an undersized power forward on the basketball court (all three of them were actual former standout basketball players in high school and two – Jackson and Seferian-Jenkins – played a bit in college). All three players are at least 6-5 and 230 pounds and will provide McCown with familiar size after leaving Chicago, where he went from journeyman quarterback to a veteran signal-caller that posted a 13:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in about half a season in 2013. So one year after needing to rely on Jackson – and Wright to a much lesser extent – to carry the passing attack, McCown and perhaps Mike Glennon will have more margin for error with their throws than just about any quarterback in the league. The running game, which proved to have plenty of depth last year, added one more talented piece to the puzzle in Sims, who drew plenty of Matt Forte comparisons while in college. Given the number of times new OC Jeff Tedford has stated that he believes in spreading the workload among his backs, it seems pretty certain that Martin will be hard-pressed to come anywhere close to his amazing rookie year – even if his odds of making it through the season increase. Sims can be expected to get his fair share of touches – mostly in the passing game – and push Martin to the back end of fantasy RB1s as a result, something that was probably going to happen anyway once the team released OG Carl Nicks. Although Nicks played in only two games in 2013 (and nine over the last two years), Nicks’ eventual return would have given this ground game such much-needed push. His departure leaves Tampa Bay with one of the weaker interior offensive line units in the league.

Matchup analysis: Do not take the relative lack of red on Martin’s matchup line as a recommendation to draft him as anything more than a RB2 in fantasy; his natural talent and contributions in the passing game are the only qualities keeping him (or Sims) from about three more reds and three or four more yellows. The schedule isn’t as daunting for them as I am making it sound, but the aforementioned offensive line issues will probably make every Tampa Bay back relatively inconsistent – at least for a team that wants to run the ball as the Bucs say they do. There really isn’t any overly favorable part of the slate per se, although the first five weeks after the bye could give owners a sell-high time if Atlanta’s run defense isn’t as good as I think it will be. McCown did not receive any red boxes, but that was more of a nod to the fact that he has two receivers in Jackson and Evans that should be able to help him avoid any disastrous weeks. Fortunately for him, most of the teams that can bring a quick pass rush – such as Carolina and St. Louis in the first two weeks of the season and the Lions and Panthers in the first two weeks of the fantasy playoffs – lack top-level cornerbacks. The toughest matchups for the receivers are sandwiched around the bye with New Orleans and Baltimore (Weeks 5 and 6) as well as Cleveland (Week 9) possessing enough quality defenders in the secondary to make life difficult for the Bucs’ behemoth receivers. Cincinnati (Week 13) and Green Bay (Week 16) also could provide potential pitfalls if both defenses can stay healthy that long.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.