Now for the hard part…. I told you last summer my hit rate
on Risers had really slumped in 2022 and 2023 (16%), but we’re
back at par after a solid 2024 (four out of nine for 44%, just north
of my all-time rate of ~40% since 2011). This year’s crop
features some obvious candidates and a few less obvious ones. However,
it’s never as easy as it looks. Even when, say, an almost
surefire Hall of Famer wideout is poised to rise up and reclaim
his rightful glory, the messy business of controlled NFL violence
can doom his prospects. Quick spoiler alert: That WR is mentioned
in this year’s edition of the Risers series, but it’s
his teammate I’m more interested in. Let’s find out
who else is well positioned to leap into the Top 10 ranks in 2025.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy WRs from last season…
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s
Non-PPR league scoring.
Player B: 17 games, 160 targets, 105 receptions, 1,486 yards,
six TDs — 11.4 FPts/G
You already know one of them is Nacua (Player B, rookie year).
Who’s that Player A mystery man, though? It’s none
other than the guy many consider the very best pass grabber in
the business, Justin Jefferson, in his rookie campaign (2020).
Even normalizing for the one-game difference, Puka had more targets,
more receptions, and almost identical yardage compared to rookie
year Jettas. Oh, and he added some juice in the running game (89
yards on 12 carries), something Jefferson never has.
Now, it’s a fair qualifier that Minnesota’s star
was better in his sophomore season (13.1 FPts/G v. 11.6) and in
every year since. Still, we’re talking about a fifth-round
draft pick comparing very favorably to a first-round pick considered
no worse than the second-best receiver in the league. LA felt
so good about Nacua’s value that the team eventually told
their (other) star wideout, Cooper Kupp, he was no longer part
of their master plan and then, ultimately, released him when a
trading partner couldn’t be identified.
The Rams have replaced their former go-to guy with another long-time
go-to guy, Davante Adams. I’ll be honest, though. He’s a personal
favorite of mine and a lethally efficient route-runner, but Adams
is not whom Sean McVay and company actually consider the foundational
piece of their WR corps. That would be Nacua. Provided Stafford
can get back on the field soon, I think only one of them is likely
to crack the Top 10 in 2025. Go get him.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA: Mr. Kupp chose a Washington
state homecoming after the Rams failed to line up a trade partner,
signing a three-year deal with the Seahawks in mid-March, just
two days after LA dumped him. Seattle’s need was obvious
after their former WR1, DK Metcalf, was granted his requested
trade less than a week before that. So, to recap, LA tells Kupp
they’re attempting to move him but nobody bites. Metcalf
tells SEA he wants to be moved and Pittsburgh bites. This frees
up a landing spot in the Emerald City for the homegrown Kupp,
who inks a $45M deal and everyone lives happily ever after, right?
We’ll see about Metcalf in Pittsburgh and Kupp in Seattle,
but the guy who probably stands to gain the most from all of this
wheeling and dealing is the guy who made Metcalf expendable in
the first place, which I’m sure he was clocking. JSN’s
rookie year was nowhere near as productive as Puka Nacua’s
(638 yards, four scores, and 5.1 FPts/G). His second year, though?
How ‘bout almost double the yards (1,130), six scores, and
8.9 FPts/G. That was good enough for WR15 on a team that featured
Metcalf and long-time Seahawks stalwart Tyler Lockett, who was
released just four days before the former was traded and ultimately
landed in Nashville.
Smith-Njigba is a lot like Lockett in that he wins with suddenness,
leverage, and precision route-running v. raw athleticism and straight-line
speed. Heck, that makes him a lot like Kupp too. It’ll be
interesting to see how they end up being deployed, but what Seattle
gave up in explosiveness, they seem to have gained in reliability
and predictable production. I think JSN will be more productive
than any of the guys mentioned this coming season.
Tyreek Hill, MIA: Has he lost a step? Could
be but he probably had a few to lose, y’all. Cheetah went
from the very top of his game in 2023 (WR2 and 16.2 FPts/G, a
high for the position) to a disappointing WR23 finish in 2024
(just 8.1 FPts/G, a career low). He’s north of 30 years
old, moreover, so that persistent over-the-hill narrative definitely
fits. However…
It sure does seem like pundits are conveniently forgetting the
context of what else happened in 2024 that could have caused Hill’s
precipitous statistical decline. In the 11 games he played with
Tua Tagovailoa, he averaged a very solid 9.4 FPts/G. That’s
still well below the former Chief’s high career standards,
but not too far away from guys like Ladd McConkey and Courtland
Sutton (WR10 and WR11, respectively). In games he played with
other Miami quarterbacks, however, Hill’s per-game fantasy
points rate dropped to 4.8. That’s more like Tre Tucker
and Parker Washington territory. No offense to those two fellas,
but not exactly where we’d expect to see one of the all-time
speed demons, is it? Turns out receivers are quite reliant on
the guys flinging them footballs.
If you believe in Tyreek this season, therefore, you have to
swallow hard and hope that Tua can, for a change, play more than
some of his games. Without him, this Dolphins offense will fall
apart fast and Mike McDaniel will be collecting unemployment checks
sooner rather than later. The good news even if that happens?
Hill doesn’t cost quite as much as he did in 2025. He’s
currently WR12 for PPR ADP, meaning you can get a fantasy Hall
of Famer for the price of a back-end WR1. Put last year behind
you and snap up Tyreek.
