We’ve spent the last couple weeks talking Top
10 talent (past, present, and future). We’ll spend this
week talking about some mostly unknown talent on the other end of
the spectrum, prospects not even guaranteed a roster spot who could
– if attrition rears its ugly head – play key roles
as the season wears on. This just in: Attrition ALWAYS rears its
ugly head. We’re talking about tackle football, after all.
Here are some backups to put on your free agent prospect list as
the season approaches.
Quarterbacks
Jeff
Driskel (SF): What happens when you pair two of the league’s
least accurate passers and a super-raw greenhorn with one its most
fantasy-friendly coaches? The 49ers faithful are about to find out.
Chip Kelly’s turned quarterback lemons into lemonade before, but
the supporting cast in Philadelphia was much better and he no longer
has the advantage of taking defensive coordinators by surprise.
In fact, many believe his “blur” offense has run its course and
will soon be interred in the fad offense graveyard, a la the run-and-shoot.
I’m not as skeptical, but would love to see Chipper’s scheme implemented
by an appropriately talented quarterback for a change. Colin
Kaepernick sure seemed like that guy several years ago when
he led the Niners to a Super Bowl XLVII appearance. Not much has
gone right since, however, and then Kaep decided to throw gasoline
on the bonfire of his once-promising career last Friday night, refusing
to stand for the national anthem. That leaves Blaine
Gabbert as the de facto opening day starter and #7 likely looking
for work sooner rather than later.
I know I’m in the minority here, but I’m actually somewhat
enthused by Gabbert’s similar skill set (big, great arm, great
mobility). Admittedly, it never seems to translate onto the pitch
and he’s looked very pedestrian in preseason games thus far.
Could that give Driskel, the sixth-round project from Florida by
way of Louisiana Tech, clear line of sight to the starting gig at
some point? I believe it certainly could, especially if San Francisco
gets off to a crummy start (Carolina, Seattle, and Arizona in the
first five weeks). He’s just as good an athlete as Gabbert,
though less polished, and Kelly has nothing to lose by experimenting
under center. Keep Driskel on mental layaway.
Josh
McCown (CLE): Robert
Griffin III’s career path looks eerily similar to that of the
aforementioned Kaepernick’s – stratospheric highs followed by ego-bruising
lows – and only differs in that his original team officially gave
up on him. Summarily released this past March by Washington, RGIII
now attempts to resurrect his career in Cleveland where early preseason
returns have been promising. Is it possible Griffin III only needed
a coach (Hue Jackson) who actually wants him instead of one who
merely tolerated him (Jay Gruden)? This much is for sure: If RGIII
2.0 is going to be a successful launch, for Hue Jackson or anybody,
the former Heisman winner will have to stay healthy. He hasn’t made
it through a complete professional season yet and that puts whoever
backs him up squarely on the waiver wire radar. In McCown, Coach
Jackson has one of the league’s more capable and proven relief pitchers.
McCown was actually the Browns’ starter to kick off the 2015
season, but ended up appearing in only eight games thanks to several
injuries of his own (head, shoulder, ribs, and then collarbone).
If that makes him sound like a less-than-reliable backup to the
less-than-reliable Griffin, consider what he actually did when he
was on the field: 21.2 fantasy points per game. That’s respectable.
Now consider what he did if you scrub his Week 1 and Week 12 numbers,
when he made only abbreviated appearances: 24.8 fantasy points per
game. Here’s how many QBs averaged more than 24.8 per game
last year: five.
McCown may not be considered a viable NFL starter, but don’t
tell that to fantasy GMs. He’s already proven his worth to
us and would be getting to work, theoretically, with one of the
NFL’s most supremely talented wideouts, Josh Gordon, who was
suspended all of last year.
Trevone
Boykin (SEA): I had Dak
Prescott all penciled into this final slot, but it appears he’ll
be opening the season as the only rookie starter at the position.
Who’d have guessed THAT even a couple weeks ago, let alone back
in April when quarterbacks went 1-2 overall? I’ll have more to say
about Jared
Goff and Carson
Wentz when they get their respective shots (and they will eventually),
but here’s a sneak preview: Don’t get your hopes up. Goff might
end up being the worst No.1 pick since JaMarcus Russell and Wentz
is taking a huge step up from the FCS ranks. Simply put, they’re
both a long way from being able to help us…if they ever do.
So is Boykin, obviously, since the guy standing in his way is only
one of the best young field generals in the game. Still, as projects
go, he’s a compelling one. For starters, he has a lot of the
same physical gifts (and perceived deficits) as Russell Wilson.
He’s got good arm strength, great play-making ability, and
elite escapability, mitigated by less than ideal height and small
hands. Can he find similar success, though? To answer that question,
I tend to rely on the “eyeball test” more than anything
else. Does a guy make plays? Is he dynamic? Is he, in short, a good
football player? Boykin’s a “yes” to all of the
above and, more importantly, is one Danger Russ injury away from
running the show in Seattle. That’s pretty heady stuff for
a guy who wasn’t even drafted after a pre-Alamo Bowl arrest
scared most shoppers away.
Boykin isn’t someone to think about now, obviously, and Hawks
fans hope he’ll never be. Keep tabs on him, though, in case
the unthinkable happens in the Emerald City. He can ball.
Running Backs
C.J.
Prosise (SEA): Seattle added this baller via more traditional
means, nabbing him with the 90th overall pick near the end of the
third round in April’s draft. At the time, he was billed as a multi-dimensional,
third-down type who could supplement presumed meal ticket Thomas
Rawls as Seattle moves into the post-Beast Mode era. He still
fits that bill, but the Hawks’ running back switch has changed quite
a bit in the intervening months and many now wonder where the former
Golden Domer fits in.
Rawls’ fractured ankle, suffered in Week 14 of the 2015 season,
made it impossible for him to participate in all offseason workouts
and the early stages of training camp. That created an opportunity
for another Seattle back to carve out a niche. That back could have
and probably would have been Prosise, except that he too suffered
an injury (tweaked hammy) on the very first day of camp. Enter Christine
Michael, a once-promising Seattle draftee who suffered the ultimate
NFL ignominy in 2015, getting cut from Washington’s practice squad
(after he was jettisoned by Seattle and then Dallas). Michael has
experienced a “beautiful turnaround” in his second Seahawks stint,
according to Coach Pete Carroll, and has already racked up 157 yards
on 24 preseason carries (6.5 yards per tote). Some are even suggesting
he and Rawls will share the load once games start counting for real
in early September.
So that leaves Prosise out in the cold, right? I’m not so certain.
The former Notre Dame receiver is, not surprisingly, the best pass-grabber
of the bunch and bucks the third-down mold by being bigger than
his every-down colleagues. In other words, he’s sturdy, versatile,
and (bonus) doesn’t have a lot of running back miles on his young
legs. I think we’ll like this guy.
Jonathan
Williams (BUF): This guy isn’t on very many radars, I
suspect, and that stands to reason. A week or so ago, he was buried
deep on the Buffalo depth chart, behind starter LeSean
McCoy, backups Karlos
Williams and Mike
Gillislee, and presumed third-down specialist Reggie
Bush. Why would we be interested in a fifth-string running back
when most teams barely carry three (plus a fullback) at the position
into the regular season?
Well, for starters, he isn’t the fifth-string RB any longer. The
Bills shockingly cut ties with the other Williams when he showed
up to camp grossly overweight (think Eddie
Lacy circa 2015). The former Seminole blamed his pregnant wife
for the overeating (classy!), but whatever the reason, the surprise
pink slip boils down to this: Almost 100 carries, 500-plus yards,
and 11 touchdowns just left the building and in a real big hurry.
So everyone moves up a slot and the former Razorback is fourth-string
now, right? Not necessarily.
By all accounts, the talented Williams, who missed his final year
in Fayetteville due to foot surgery, is making a real push to overtake
Gillislee for the role of Shady’s understudy. That matters because
the latter isn’t likely to tally more than 250 carries and the Bills
ran the ball 509 times in 2015. For context, only Carolina surpassed
that number (526). Even if Tyrod Taylor racks up triple digit rushing
attempts again, there should be at least 100 more carries for someone
like Williams to lock down. I think he’s got a real good shot to
do exactly that, provided his most recent injury (ribs) isn’t serious.
Oh by the way? Don’t get too attached to the guy. He was arrested
for DWI this summer prior to camp and will face league discipline
in 2017, maybe sooner.
Playing behind J-Stew, Cameron Artis-Payne
is a perfect flier to target in the late rounds of your draft.
Cameron Artis-Payne (CAR): The Panthers’ reliance on
a rugged ground game, coupled with a historically good defense,
led them to one of the most successful regular seasons in NFL history
and to the brink of Super Bowl glory. As usual, the most dynamic
of those ground gainers wasn’t a running back at all, but rather
Cam
Newton. When you lead the league in carries, though, somebody’s
gotta be pulling their weight at the running back position, and
that someone was Jonathan
Stewart, one-time fantasy darling and former Duck (GO DUCKS!).
Stewart logged the leather 242 times last season, more than he has
in any of his previous seven seasons, and narrowly missed the 1,000-yard
mark. Helps to stay reasonably healthy, huh?
I say “reasonably” because, despite the statistical resurgence,
Stewart was still bothered by nagging injuries and again missed
several games. In fact, he’s averaged barely 10 games played his
last four seasons, a disturbing trend for a guy nearing 30 years
old. If Ron Rivera is smart, and he obviously is, he’ll want to
keep his chronically banged-up meal ticket on a pitch count. That
means this year’s backup should be in line to shoulder a fairly
sizeable load.
So who’s that backup? I think you’re looking at him, gang. Artis-Payne
only managed 45 carries in his rookie campaign, struggling a bit
with pass protection and ball security (what rookie doesn’t?).
However, word out of Panthers camp is that he’s close to nailing
down the backup RB role heading into the 2016 season and could
be in line for something closer to 75-100 carries. That’s if J-Stew
stays off the injury report, mind you, which is obviously not
a given. High volume rushing offense + decent skill set + iffy
first-stringer = high upside. Keep an eye on CAP.
Wide Receivers
Jared
Abbrederis (GB): Ever since James
Jones led the NFL with 14 TD receptions back in 2012, the
Pack has been on a quixotic search for more of that third wideout
gold. They tried Jarrett
Boykin. They tried Davante
Adams. Heck, they even tried Jones again (after sojourns in
Oakland and New York) before finally cutting ties earlier this
year and committing to a full-on youth movement. Abbrederis isn’t
the most ballyhooed of those youths (which includes Adams, Jeff
Janis, and Ty
Montgomery), but appears now to have the inside track on that
coveted third wide receiver spot for the Cheese.
Here’s why and here’s why that matters: Aaron
Rodgers. While Packer fans (myself included) were hoping to
see more of Janis – physical freak and near hero of the NFC Divisional
Playoff against Arizona – Rodgers has been steadily lobbying for
Abbrederis to see more action since late 2015. Here’s what he
said last December: “He (Abbrederis) needs to be on the field
more.” That’s pretty blunt, I’d say, but A-Rodge doubled down
just a couple weeks ago: “He’s a guy that has phenomenal preparation.
He’s always in the right spot, he has incredible body movements
when it comes to not telegraphing routes, and he just finds a
way to get open all the time.”
Does this sound like a guy the Pack’s future Hall of Famer might
like throwing to? Quarterbacks like guys who get open, first and
foremost. Extraordinary athleticism and a second gear are nice,
but not particularly helpful when not used in the furtherance
of that basic goal. Janis is temporarily out of the picture with
a broken hand and Davante Adams is still trying to get out of
his own way. That leaves the unsung former Badger, he of the FIFTEEN
career receptions, looking pretty good.
Sammie
Coates (PIT): Speaking of extraordinary athleticism
and a second gear. Martavis
Bryant’s year-long suspension, coupled with the now three-game
suspension of RB Le’Veon
Bell, has created a bit of a vacuum in the Pittsburgh passing
game. Sure, the Steelers still have the most productive receiver
in the game and he’s likely to swallow up many more targets (if
that’s even possible). Nevertheless, somebody else will need to
emerge as a secondary option for Big Ben if the Curtain hopes
to keep things humming until Bell’s return. Why can’t that somebody
be second-year project Sammie
Coates?
Well, here are some reasons, courtesy of Coates’ official NFL.com
draft profile from 2015:
“Unreliable target. Inexplicable focus drops in all areas of the
field. Had a drop rate of 19.1 percent. Vertical receiver without
vertical feel. Inconsistent play speed. Suspect ball tracking.
Stiff hips and limited route runner. Slow to gather and turn it
upfield on catch-and-runs.”
Ha! Is there anything to like about this guy? Actually, there’s
plenty (think size and speed) but I’ll spare you the detail and
get straight to my favorite part of his draft profile, his NFL comparison.
It was none other than…drum roll, please…the guy he’s hoping to
replace, Martavis
Bryant.
If the Steelers indeed drafted a clone of their now-suspended stud,
they can only hope his greatly improved second training camp is
a harbinger of things to come. Coates has looked way more polished
this summer and even caught his first professional TD pass this
past weekend. At press time, he’s still fourth on the depth chart
but it’s conceivable he could overtake Eli
Rogers (who?) and the unspectacular Markus
Wheaton soon. He’s much bigger, more athletic, and faster than
both of them and just needs to solve those Ginn-esque hands to earn
Roethlisberger’s full confidence.
Braxton
Miller (HOU): The list of college quarterbacks who
have made the successful transition to wide receiver in the pros
is pretty short (e.g., Julian
Edelman, Antwaan Randle El, Freddie Solomon) and it’s not
hard to see why. How many players really have the full mental
and athletic package (high football IQ, great arm, great hands,
field vision, foot speed, etc.) to play both pitcher and catcher
at the game’s highest levels? Consider Miller, two-time Big 10
offensive player of the year (at quarterback), one of those players.
At 6;1”, 200 pounds, the former Buckeye’s actually a bit larger
than most slot receivers, where the Texans seem to prefer him
at the moment. He also possesses well-above-average speed, having
run the 40 in 4.41 seconds. Not bad for a guy who’s got more experience
throwing footballs than chasing them down. Oh, and he’s pretty
good at chasing them down, too. The former QB was criminally underutilized
as a senior WR in Columbus, but the Texans are discovering he
was still worth the draft day gamble. He’s reportedly a very quick
study and has looked like a guy who has years of experience this
August.
What’s most exciting about Miller is what the Texans HAVEN’T shown
us yet, namely, the inevitable sub-packages which feature him
as either a runner or a thrower (or both). I mean, the guy can
literally do anything and Bill O’Brien possesses a creative enough
mind to take full advantage of that versatility. If the list of
college QBs to NFL WRs is short, the list of guys who can tally
points as a passer, receiver, runner, and returner is even shorter.
Go get this Swiss Army knife of a rookie before someone else in
your league gets wise to how special he may end up being.
