Everything has fallen into place for Williams and the Bears offense.
No longer helmed by an inept coaching staff, Williams will have
Ben Johnson whispering magic into his headset. The former Lions
OC transformed another former first overall pick into an MVP candidate,
and hopes to do the same with Williams, who flashed in 2024, but
too often had a difficult time making routine plays. He took a
historic amount of sacks (68), and never seemed to develop chemistry
with his receivers, as his catchable ball rate (75%) was one of
the lowest in the league. He simply must be better in the pocket,
and throwing on schedule if he’s going to be able to take a progressional
leap. There are no excuses this year. The offensive line has been
rebuilt, Chicago invested the 10th overall pick in shifty tight
end Colston Loveland, and the franchise has made every roster
and coaching staff move to help Williams.
Williams survived on raw ability last year as he was left out
to dry by a clueless coaching staff. I believe in his talent,
and Johnson is the perfect fit as head coach. If he can perfect
his fundamentals, and play within the offense, he has the weapons,
scheme, and running ability to flirt with the top-5. Chicago doesn’t
have a stable of backs like Detroit has, so look for Williams
to sling it. As a fringe QB1, you can wait on Williams while loading
up on other positions, and bank on his upside.
Swift was a bit of a letdown in his first season with Chicago.
With health, not talent, being the knock on his career, Swift
managed to play a full slate of games for the first time in his
career. Unfortunately, he was a largely irrelevant fantasy asset
for most of them. He averaged a career low 3.8 yards-per-carry,
exceeded 60 yards rushing in only 7 of 17 games, and wasn’t
involved in the passing game nearly as much as he should have
with only 42 receptions.
Despite the offensive struggles and inconsistency of 2024, everything's
coming up roses for Swift in 2025. Other than a 7th round pick,
Chicago added no competition to the backfield, making Swift the
unconditioned starter. His former coach knows how best to deploy
him in the offense, and he should play the Jahmyr Gibbs role in
the game plan. He’s one of the few backs in his tier that
have a clear path to a BOOM! finish if this Chicago offense can
put it all together.
Like most of the offense, Johnson deserves a mulligan from last
year. The 2023 4th rounder saw only 55 carries, spending time
behind Swift and Khalil Herbert. Despite his lack of meaningful
involvement, he did prove to be effective near the goal line,
scoring six rushing touchdowns. With a limited athletic profile,
Johnson projects as the thunder to Swift’s lightning. The
potential to be a late-round lottery ticket is there if you believe
in the offense’s ability to rebound. Johnson is likely best
viewed as a Swift handcuff as only 7th round pick Kyle Monangai
is currently there to threaten him.
A microcosm of the 2024 season came in a Week 9 loss to the Cardinals.
Just before the half, Moore walked off the field and sat on the
bench. This is usually a common occurrence, except that players
usually wait for the play to end before leaving the field. Not
Moore. While “injury” was the excuse, most believe
he had become fed up with the inability of his quarterback to
get him the ball. Suffering through a terribly inefficient season
(career low 9.9 yards-per-catch), Moore hauled in only 70% of
his targets, and his best trait, deep game breaking receptions,
were virtually nonexistent.
Of all the skill position players on this team, I’m most
doubtful about a potential turnaround being significant to Moore’s
bottom line. With so many mouths to feed, a repeat of the 140
targets seems unlikely, and it remains to be seen what role he
plays in the offense. Will he shift into a possession slot that
gets schemed yards-after-catch opportunities? Will he return to
being a downfield threat? Either way, improved quarterback play,
and an attitude adjustment are paramount to his success. His current
WR2 price seems expensive for me with so much uncertainty in his
role, and the level of talent his fellow receivers possess.
It was a trying rookie season for the 9th overall pick. Stuck
behind two veteran receivers for most of the season, Odunze struggled
to carve out a consistent role in the offense. His best asset,
winning contested catches deep down field, was neutered by erratic
quarterback play, and he barely hauled in half of his 101 total
targets. He showed limitations as a route runner, and other than
a sprinkle of games, was largely useless for fantasy.
But the sky looks brighter in 2025. He stands to gain the most
from any meaningful improvements in Caleb Williams, and if the
refinement in his route tree can begin to approach his physical
talent, he has the potential to vault over D.J. Moore as the team’s
No.1 option in the passing game. Chicago’s offensive talent
doesn’t mirror Detroit, so it remains to be seen how Ben
Johnson will deploy the many chess pieces on his board. Volume
is the biggest concern, but Odunze has the physical tools to dominate,
and should be more consistent this season. With a wide range of
outcomes, I’m willing to bet on talent, and a top-25 finish.
A former 5-star, top-10 nationally recruited player, Burden was
considered by some analysts to be the best receiver prospect in
the draft. Chicago thought highly of him, spending a high 2nd
round pick on what wasn’t considered a position of need.
The eclectic rookie from Missouri joins an absolutely crowded
receiver room and will have difficulty finding enough consistent
volume to make him a reliable fantasy player. Look for Burden
to be deployed near the line of scrimmage, as he profiles most
like Amon-Ra St. Brown with his quickness, and hands. His ability
to separate from defenders is elite, and I can envision him lining
up in the backfield as Ben Jonhson looks to manufacture some touches
for the rookie. Overall, I think he’s a year or two away
from being more than an end of the bench fantasy stash, but stranger
things have happened!
The “rookie tight ends can be productive players”
myth has evaporated the last few seasons, with Sam LaPorta, and
Brock Bowers having historical statistical finishes. Loveland
was a surprise pick by the Bears, but it’s clear the team
has a clear plan for the rookie from Michigan. Playing more like
a big wideout, than inline tight end, Loveland has the athletic
traits and offensive scheme to have a solid fantasy ceiling in
his first season. Like LaPorta in his rookie year, Loveland will
be surrounded by more “flashy” teammates who will
tend to draw the attention of the defense. Loveland can use his
frame, and separation ability to take advantage of lesser defenders
in the short and intermediate parts of the field, and be an asset
in the red zone. While he won’t impress anyone with his
blocking ability, he will have to hold off a well-paid vet to
earn consistent playing time. That, and volume are the biggest
roadblocks to Loveland being more than a TE2 early on.
Like every member of this offense Kmet’s numbers took a
precipitous drop in 2024. After setting career highs in targets,
receptions, and yards in 2023, those numbers dropped by as much
as 40% last year. What’s worse is those numbers are unlikely
to improve much, as Chicago invested the 10th overall pick in
tight end Colson Loveland, and a 2nd round pick in receiver Luther
Burden III. Kmet is in danger of falling out of the passing game
pecking order.
