One of the fun aspects of playing Dynasty fantasy football is
speculation on value at different times of the year. Owners love
to buy low and sell high based on what they THINK may happen if
different scenarios play out.
One of the biggest events of the year that fuel this speculation
is the NFL draft. This year was odd as there was no real consensus
on who the top fantasy-relevant players were and where they would
be drafted. The draft did not disappoint for those who like drama
and surprises. For example, only one quarterback was drafted in
the first round, after many thought at least three would be selected.
In the following piece I’d like to highlight 5 Losers after
this past weekend’s events. I'll also take the flip side of
the coin and hit 5
winners. Use this information as possible reasons why you should
try and buy or sell a particular player, or just to get a better
macro-view of the current NFL landscape, post-draft.
Bearsí fans must be going nuts after having two top 50 picks
in a strong wide receiver class, with the position being one of
need and they only end up drafting one of the biggest reaches
in memory at pick 71 in Velus Jones Jr. While other teams are
going all-in to support their young quarterbacks (Jets with Wilson,
Jags with Lawrence, etc.) the bears let Allen Robinson walk in
the offseason and spend one mid-round draft pick on a 6th year
(not a typo) college player who profiles as a backup or special
teams ace. I guess if you want to look at the bright side, they
did draft four offensive linemen, but none before pick 168 so
itís possible none of them make a big impact right away.
The bottom line is the Bears are not setting up Fields for success
which means unless he fully lives up to his potential on his own,
his fantasy value has taken a significant hit. As a former first
round pick, the team is likely committed to him for another couple
years but anything can happen and if his current situation plays
out as bad as it looks on paper, the Bears may even move on from
Fields prematurely. If I am a dynasty owner of Fields, I am looking
to sell if I can get anything close to fair value at this point,
as it may get ugly pretty fast in the Windy City.
2. Tennessee Titansí Fans
I know some will argue with this take because their draft was
not horrible but when you are one season removed from being the
top seed in the AFC, with Derrick Henry still somehow in his prime
and a young stud wideout on the roster, the last thing you do
is trade that player, especially when you donít get an absolute
haul for him.
Everyone knows A.J. Brown had to get paid and for the life of
me I donít understand why you wouldnít just pay him,
but if you trade him then you should be getting multiple first
round picks or the equivalent in return. To get a mid-first and
a third in a weaker draft year is straight up disrespectful to
the Titans fanbase. This was a player the team and fans could
have rallied around for another 5-plus years as one of the NFLís
top receivers. Now they are stuck with Treylon Burks as their
likely top target (at least long term), who many had plummeting
down their draft boards thanks to suspect route running in addition
to an awful combine.
With the AFC only getting stronger this offseason the Titans offense
has taken a major hit in a year where there may be a lot of shootouts
in the conference. As a dynasty owner I am hands-off for all Titans
now, even Henry, who should attract even more defensive attention
with the departure of Brown.
3. Dynasty Owners in Need of a Quarterback
The QB class overall this year was known to be weak but the GMs
and coaches let us know exactly how weak it really was. Leading
up to the draft some mocks had quarterbacks going as high as No.2
overall and even Vegas had it likely that there would be three
quarterbacks selected in the first round.
Fast forward to the actual draft and many people were way off
base. Only one quarterback was drafted in the first round (Kenny
Pickett) and he lasted until pick No.20 to the Steelers, who had
already signed Mitchell Trubisky this offseason.
Malik Willis, considered by many to be the top of the QB class,
especially from a fantasy perspective, lasted all the way till
late round 3 (Titans) after being mocked in the first round by
The remaining QBís that were ranked highest in this class
did not fare well either, with Desmond Ridder lasting till the
early 3rd to the Falcons, Matt Corral slipping to the late 3rd
to the Panthers, and Sam Howell falling all the way to the Commanders
in round 5. Carson Strong, considered by many to be a top 5 QB
in this class went totally undrafted and had to sign as an UDFA.
The combination of the class being perceived as below average
plus the poor draft capital by all but Pickett, means a whole
lot of risk for dynasty owners that take a chance on one of these
young QBs. With few, if any, guaranteed starting jobs for these
rookies, combined with a likely much stronger QB class incoming
next year, dynasty owners should proceed with extreme caution
before spending any valuable capital on any of these rookie signal-callers.
This running back draft class was not heralded but did have 3-4
guys with the potential to disrupt the running back room on a
James Cook going to the Bills in the 2nd round was one such player
and unfortunately, he probably kills any hope of Devin Singletary
being anything close to an RB1, which is what he was for the final
four games of the 2021 regular season and the first week of the
While questions remain on whether or not Cook can be a workhorse
back, he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and has
real homerun ability in the open field. With a dynamic skillset,
an impressive pedigree (Dalvin Cookís brother) and excellent
draft capital for a running back, Cook is very likely to get significant
touches as soon as Week 1.
While Singletary had an impressive close to the 2021 season, the
Bills clearly think they needed help at the position as evidenced
by their flirtation with J.D. McKissic in free agency. Dynasty
owners who hung onto Singletary or acquired him this offseason
are likely going to have to take the ďLĒ and move
onto other possibilities at the position.
While Jones had a better year than his rookie QB counterpart Justin
Fields, he finds himself on the same list as Fields here as a
post-draft loser thanks to the Patriots failing to add anything
substantial to support him.
Despite having one of the leagueís most lackluster receiver
depth charts, the Patriots decided to mostly take a pass despite
it being a strong year for the position. I say mostly here because
they did take Baylorís Tyquan Thornton, but most had him
as day 3 pick or even UDFA, even though the Patriots reached all
the way up to the 2nd for him. Thornton is more track star than
football player as evidenced by his paltry 3.9 yards after the
catch and just 11 broken tackles in his college career.
With the Patriots poor history of drafting receivers maybe they
should have just passed on the position all together, but one
would have thought they would have thrown multiple darts in this
draft rather than counting on just one prospect, especially one
as raw as Thornton.
Adding insult to injury, the Patriots actually drafted a quarterback,
Western Kentuckyís Bailey Zappe, in the 4th round, rather
than taking another shot at a weapon for Jones. While Zappe doesnít
pose a threat to Jones as a starter, it seems like misused capital
for a team that may be in some heavy shootouts with teams in their
own division like the Bills and the newly heavily armed Jets and
While Dynasty owners who took a shot on Jones last year were handsomely
rewarded, it is unlikely that Jonesí ceiling rises without
better weapons and it looks like 2022 will not be that year. Iím
a seller of Jones now and avoiding him in fantasy circles altogether
if I donít already own him.