Every fantasy football team manager has been
there before; there is a player you are absolutely in love with
and must draft, even if you have to reach a bit for him. On the
flip side there are always players that seem to fall and even if
you aren't totally convinced, you feel compelled to draft them based
on the value they present. There is always a risk/reward factor
you calculate based on many things including past performance, current
situation, injury risk, competition, upside, and value, just to
name a few. The following players stand out to me as having a ton
of potential but also come with big question marks that may make
drafting them at their current ADP a bit too risky.
Note: ADP based on 12-team, standard scoring leagues.
Jimmy Graham's high floor and relative
safety in a weak TE class makes him a decent pick in Round
3.
Risk:
The biggest risk with Graham this year is mostly the unknown role
he will play on a Seahawks offense that ran the ball 53.6% of
the time last year (highest in NFL). A big chunk of Graham’s value
rests in catching TD’s in the redzone, yet Seattle already has
one of the best redzone weapons in Marshawn
Lynch. On a conservative offense, Graham will be asked to
stay in and block a lot more than he has thus far in his career
(he’s admitted as much this Summer), meaning less opportunities
to score points for your fantasy team. In the middle of the 3rd
round there are many great players still available at other positions
so it seems silly to waste a pick on a tight end not named Rob
Gronkowski. Chances are you can take a tight end two rounds
later and get similar production as you would from Graham this
high in the draft.
Reward: If you are in a league
that requires playing a tight end, as most do, you should realize
the advantage it is to get a difference maker at the position.
Last year the 12th best TE scored less than half the points of
the best TE and it got even uglier the deeper you drill down.
By getting a player like Graham you set yourself up every week
where you are not just hoping your TE gets you a few points, but
instead, there is a chance he single-handedly wins the week for
you. Sure, Graham most likely will not get you 85+ catches this
year, but it’s not like he landed with the Jets. Graham still
has an above average QB throwing to him, and he is clearly the
most talented option in the passing game, so 70+ catches is still
very likely. With an elite defense that puts the offense in great
position there should be a ton of redzone opportunities this year
and Lynch simply can’t score all the TD’s! Look for Graham to
score 8 plus times easily and be the safest pick you can make
in the mid-third round.
Buy or Sell at ADP: I’m normally
a guy who likes to wait for tight ends in the draft and rarely
take Gronk early so I’m shocking myself a little here, but I actually
think Graham is a buy in the mid-third round. This year my strategy
for the position is as follows. Somebody will draft Gronk in round
1 or by mid-round 2 at the latest, but it’s not going to be me,
as there are simply too few stud RB’s to consider taking a TE
that early. If you do not take Graham in round 3 you are left
with a suspended Antonio
Gates, Greg
Olsen is consistent and safe but has a fairly low ceiling,
Martellus
Bennett most likely had his career year last year and always
fades come fantasy playoff time, Travis
Kelce has all the hype in the world but has one career 100-yard
game and is still a big question mark, Julius
Thomas goes from Peyton Manning to Blake
Bortles, and Zach
Ertz, like Kelce has a lot of hype but not much substance.
My point is Graham is as safe a player as there is in the mid-third
round and still has the upside to blow up multiple weeks. Do yourself
a favor and consider Graham in the 3rd round, you will rest easier
knowing a tough position to cover is now one of your biggest team
advantages.
Risk: Never pay for a career year
is a motto I have when drafting and Sanders is a guy that fits
that bill this year. After several mediocre years as a Steeler,
Sanders blew up last season and ended up fantasy’s No.6 WR when
it was all said and done. This season the offense looks to be
more balanced and conservative and Sanders has certainly upped
his name recognition. Sanders admitted this offseason that the
new offense would likely mean a dip in his production and with
second-year WR Cody
Latimer reportedly having a stellar offseason, Sanders could
play more of a complementary role this season rather than a target
hog he was last year. Sanders is a nice safe player with a relatively
high floor but for a guy that is being drafted as a low-end WR1
or high-end WR2 the upside is simply not there this season.
Reward: So let’s get this straight,
Sanders finished as the 6th best fantasy WR, is being drafted
as the 13th best and there are no injury concerns and no major
personnel changes that should negatively affect him? What’s the
problem here? Sanders still has Peyton throwing to him, still
has Thomas to draw defensive coverage, and might even have a better
run game to draw the Safety’s up, what’s not to like? With a year
under his belt in Denver and still in his prime, Sanders could
actually be getting better this season. In the late 3rd round
Sanders provides excellent value as a player who will get you
consistent points and still has enough upside to justify his high
draft position.
Buy or Sell at ADP: For fantasy
purposes I see Sanders as a Julian
Edelman type player who gets most of his value through heavy
volume, and because I feel strongly that his volume will drop
significantly this year, Sanders is an easy sell for me as a top
15 WR. Sanders’ 9 touchdowns last year were a bit fluky and when
Sanders himself proclaimed a personal goal of 1,000 yards this
season after racking up over 1,400 last year, it raised tons of
red flags. It might be a different story if he was a physical
freak but Sanders is far from it and with Denver running the ball
more and moving to more 2 tight end sets, not to mention a probable
expanded role for Latimer, Sanders could easily lose 20 plus receptions
and a few touchdowns, taking him from a solid WR1 to a low-end
WR2 or high-end WR3. It’s not like Sanders is going to completely
disappear, but he simply has no value in the 3rd round, especially
when compared to more emerging, higher upside players available
there like Brandin
Cooks and Jordan
Matthews, who should both be No.1 targets in above average
offenses.
Risk: For a number of seasons Andre
Johnson was considered an elite receiver and consistently ended
up in fantasy’s top 12 at the position. That is, until last season
when, despite playing 15 games and drawing nearly 150 targets,
Johnson not only fell out of the top 12, but into the 40’s (43rd
in most leagues). Was it age (Johnson is now 34)? Injury? Lack
of desire? Nobody knows for sure but it certainly set off the
alarm that the days of Johnson being a dominating force are most
likely over. Maybe the change of scenery will do Johnson well
but you can’t fight father time forever, as Reggie
Wayne found out, and with the presence of other proven effective
receivers (T.Y.
Hilton), physical freaks (Donte
Moncrief), highly drafted rookies (Phillip Dorsett), and red
zone options (Dwayne
Allen), not to mention a more stable run game (Frank
Gore), Andre Johnson may be more likely to fade into the sunset
rather than revitalize his career in Indy.
Reward: While Johnson is no spring
chicken, Reggie Wayne was only a couple months younger than Johnson
when he racked up a 106 reception, 1,355 yards, and 5 TDs with
Andrew
Luck under center in 2012. Working with easily the best quarterback
of his career Johnson should be refreshed and energized to play
football again in one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.
While there will certainly be competition for targets in Indy,
Johnson does not necessarily need a ton of looks to score major
fantasy points as one of the more physical receivers in the game
today. If the cards fall the right way Johnson could easily see
double digit touchdowns and if healthy, is a virtual lock for
1,000 yards in an offense that attempted more passes and racked
up more yards than any other team in the league last year.
Buy or Sell at ADP: While I do
not necessarily think Johnson going in the mid-4th round would
be classified as a steal, I am certainly buying him. Compared
to the other players normally available in the 4th round, Johnson
is the perfect combo of safety and upside as a player who, at
worst should be the Colts second option on a team that will most
likely throw the ball 30 times per game. The exciting part about
drafting Johnson is not his high floor though, it is the possibility
of a talented quarterback like Andrew Luck helping to turn back
the clock a few years on Johnson’s career and returning him to
top 12 WR status. Johnson has reportedly looked like a new man
this offseason and his size, toughness, and hands are all things
that have not been affected by his age. I look for Johnson to
put up consistent numbers in this Indy offense and easily finish
as a top 15 WR this year.
