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 Rankings/Projections > Dynasty Rankings  
Updated: 5/29/17
Doug Orth | Archive | Email |

Free agency has passed and the NFL Draft is in the rear view mirror as well, which means rosters - at least for fantasy purposes - are pretty much set.

My offseason view on dynasty rankings is significantly different than it is during the season. For starters, my main focus in the offseason is loading up on as much proven young talent as possible. During the season, I am more concerned about what I already have on my roster and making the subtle moves necessary in order to secure a championship.

In short, potential takes on a much more significant part of dynasty rankings in the offseason than usual. Free agency reshuffles the deck every year and can allow a second-string player to emerge as the more established veteran either chases a bigger paycheck, a Super Bowl ring or both. The draft introduces a number of new variables into the fantasy equation but can also knock a few of the veterans near the bottom of the rankings off the charts completely.

Based on the turnover rate in the NFL each year (roughly 25 percent), it seems unwise to look more than three years into the future any position (or at least put much weight into such a projection) simply because the odds suggest that three-fourths of the players in these rankings will be insignificant at the end of the 2019 season. Furthermore, coaching staffs seem to change almost annually, further stirring up the pot.

At any rate, here are the main criteria I have chosen to take into consideration while ranking quarterbacks:

Considerations for QB
  • Talent
  • Four years of solid (or better) production remaining
  • Age of player
  • Age/skill of supporting cast
  • Durability
  • Proven consistency
  • Coaching/scheme stability/situation
These rankings are for PPR leagues, where each touchdown is worth six points. I will release my next set of rankings before the start of the 2017 regular season.

Players with an up arrow are those that moved up eight or more spots from my previous set of rankings. Likewise, a down arrow represents a drop of eight or more spots.
Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk
Chg Rank Player Tm Age
  1 Andrew Luck IND 28
  2 Aaron Rodgers GB 33
Tier 2
  3 Derek Carr OAK 26
  4 Jameis Winston TB 23
  5 Marcus Mariota TEN 24
  6 Cam Newton CAR 28
  7 Matthew Stafford DET 29
  8 Matt Ryan ATL 32
  9 Russell Wilson SEA 28
Tier 3
  10 Philip Rivers LAC 35
  11 Drew Brees NO 38
  12 Carson Wentz PHI 24
  13 Dak Prescott DAL 24
  14 Kirk Cousins WAS 29
  15 Tom Brady NE 40
Tier 4
  16 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 35
  17 Ryan Tannehill MIA 29
18 Deshaun Watson HOU 22
  19 Eli Manning NYG 36
  20 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 26
Tier 5
  21 Blake Bortles JAC 25
  22 Andy Dalton CIN 30
  23 Sam Bradford MIN 30
  24 Tyrod Taylor BUF 28
Tier 6
25 Patrick Mahomes KC 22
26 Jared Goff LAR 23
  27 Paxton Lynch DEN 23
28 Mitchell Trubisky CHI 23
  29 Joe Flacco BAL 32
30 DeShone Kizer CLE 21
  31 Alex Smith KC 33
  32 Trevor Siemian DEN 25
  33 AJ McCarron CIN 27
  34 Carson Palmer ARI 37
  35 Mike Glennon CHI 27
Tier 7
  36 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 25
37 Joshua Dobbs PIT 22
38 Nathan Peterman BUF 23
39 Chad Kelly DEN 23
  40 Tom Savage HOU 27
  Andrew Luck, IND: Shoulder surgery makes him a risk but o-line improved late; sacked only six times in final five games.

  Aaron Rodgers, GB: Addition of Martellus Bennett may give offense a full season of what it got from Jared Cook late.

  Jameis Winston, TB: INTs still a problem but WRs/TEs are as good as any in the league.

  Marcus Mariota, TEN: Titans may be a year away from transitioning into more of a Mariota-centric offense.

  Cam Newton, CAR: "New" offense may boost his passing numbers but will emphasis on protecting him sink his rushing totals?

  Matt Ryan, ATL: Always some risk following departure of successful OC.

  Russell Wilson, SEA: Seahawks addressed o-line in the offseason, but was it enough?

  Philip Rivers, LAC: Additions to o-line and playmakers all over the place gives Rivers a fighting chance for the next few years.

  Carson Wentz, PHI: Eagles addressed WR need in offseason, but Alshon Jeffery/Jordan Matthews could be gone in 2018.

  Kirk Cousins, WAS: His 2018 employer is a question mark, which throws his long-term value into question.

  Tom Brady, NE: Hate to count on too much from 40-year-old QB, but Brandin Cooks' addition should keep him feeling young.

  Ryan Tannehill, MIA: No more excuses; he has the best supporting cast he's ever had entering this season.

  Eli Manning, NYG: Hard to forget 2016, but he has perhaps the most talent he's ever had at his disposal in 2017.

  Jimmy Garoppolo, NE: Will Pats franchise tag a backup QB next year? Jimmy G should be starting somewhere in 2018.

  Andy Dalton, CIN: John Ross may be the best sidekick A.J. Green's ever had, but o-line may be a problem now.

Patrick Mahomes, KC: May not see payoff until 2019; talented/raw rookie lands in a good (stable) situation for a young QB.

Jared Goff, LAR: Expect a fairly sizeable leap in Year 2 with a capable play-caller in his corner this time around.

  Paxton Lynch, DEN: Best talent in Denver, but Trevor Siemian didn't lose the job in 2016 and Chad Kelly is hardly irrelevant.

Mitchell Trubisky, CHI: Needed to land in a good situation and Chicago isn't it; set up to fail with raw WRs and coach on hot seat.

DeShone Kizer, CLE: Huge (raw) upside; should have a very good o-line in front of him and has solid young talent at WR/TE,

  Alex Smith, KC: Likely looking at his last full season as a starter in KC.

  Trevor Siemian, DEN: Proved to be a very capable QB in 2016, but how long can he hold off his young challengers?

  Mike Glennon, CHI: One-and-done in Chicago?

Joshua Dobbs, PIT: Given Big Ben's durabilty issues, he is almost guaranteed starts as a rookie; will he be the heir apparent as well?

Nathan Peterman, BUF: Could be starting next year if Bills part ways with Tyrod Taylor in 2018 offseason.

Chad Kelly, DEN: It's not unthinkable Mr. Irrelevant ends up as one of the best QBs in this draft class if he has cleaned up his act.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.