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 Rankings/Projections > Dynasty Rankings  
Updated: 2/16/17
Doug Orth | Archive | Email |



My offseason view on dynasty rankings is significantly different than it is during the season. For starters, my main focus in the offseason is loading up on as much proven young talent as possible. During the season, I am more concerned about what I already have on my roster and making the subtle moves necessary in order to secure a championship.

In short, potential takes on a much more significant part of dynasty rankings in the offseason than usual. Free agency reshuffles the deck every year and can allow a second-string player to emerge as the more established veteran either chases a bigger paycheck, a Super Bowl ring or both. The draft introduces a number of new variables into the fantasy equation, but can also knock a few of the veterans near the bottom of the rankings off the charts completely.

Based on the turnover rate in the NFL each year (roughly 25 percent), it seems unwise to look more than three years into the future any position (or at least put much weight into such a projection) simply because the odds suggest that three-fourths of the players in these rankings will be insignificant at the end of the 2019 season. Furthermore, coaching staffs seem to change almost annually, further stirring up the pot. At any rate, here are the main criteria I have chosen to take into consideration while ranking quarterbacks.

Considerations for QB
  • Talent
  • Four years of solid (or better) production remaining
  • Age
  • Age/skill of supporting cast
  • Durability
  • Proven consistency
  • Coaching/scheme stability/situation
These rankings are for PPR leagues, where each touchdown is worth six points. I will release my next set of rankings after the NFL Draft and then update the rankings again before the start of the 2017 regular season.

 
Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk
QUARTERBACKS
Chg Rank Player Tm Age
  1 Andrew Luck IND 27
  2 Aaron Rodgers GB 33
Tier 2
  3 Derek Carr OAK 26
  4 Marcus Mariota TEN 23
  5 Jameis Winston TB 23
  6 Matt Ryan ATL 32
  7 Matthew Stafford DET 29
  8 Cam Newton CAR 28
  9 Russell Wilson SEA 28
  10 Dak Prescott DAL 23
  11 Kirk Cousins WAS 28
Tier 3
  12 Drew Brees NO 38
  13 Tom Brady NE 39
  14 Philip Rivers SD 35
  15 Carson Wentz PHI 24
  16 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 35
  17 Ryan Tannehill MIA 28
Tier 4
  18 Jared Goff LAR 22
  19 Tyrod Taylor BUF 27
  20 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 25
  21 Blake Bortles JAC 25
  22 Paxton Lynch DEN 23
  23 Andy Dalton CIN 29
  24 Sam Bradford MIN 29
  25 Joe Flacco BAL 32
  26 Eli Manning NYG 36
  27 Alex Smith KC 33
Tier 5
  28 Mike Glennon TB 27
  29 AJ McCarron CIN 26
  30 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 24
  31 Trevor Siemian DEN 25
  32 Brock Osweiler HOU 26
  33 Tony Romo DAL 37
  34 Carson Palmer ARI 37
  35 Cardale Jones BUF 24
  36 Connor Cook OAK 24
  37 Colin Kaepernick SF 29
  38 Jay Cutler CHI 34
Tier 6
  39 Matt Moore MIA 32
  40 Brian Hoyer CHI 31
  41 Tom Savage HOU 27
  42 Cody Kessler CLE 24
  43 Trevone Boykin SEA 23
  44 Jeff Driskel CIN 24
  45 Chase Daniel PHI 30
Tier 7
  46 Jacoby Brissett NE 24
  47 Nick Foles KC 28
  48 Bryce Petty NYJ 25
  49 Brett Hundley GB 23
  50 Christian Hackenberg NYJ 22
 
COMMENTS
  Andrew Luck, IND: Has yet to reach his ceiling; should only improve as o-line improves.

  Derek Carr, OAK: Room for growth as OC Bill Musgrave's departure figures to lead to more QB-centric offense.

  Matt Ryan, ATL: Loss of OC Kyle Shanahan can't be good for long-term prospects, but Ryan evolved in 2016 regardless.

  Cam Newton, CAR: How much did shoulder hinder him? His role in running game appears to be in decline.

  Russell Wilson, SEA: Injuries/bad o-line play led to sizeable drop-off in 2016; should bounce back with improved protection.

  Dak Prescott, DAL: Landed in perfect situation, although he showed much more poise than most rookie QBs.

  Kirk Cousins, WAS: How much credit does ex-OC Sean McVay deserve? Could be w/o D-Jax and Garcon in 2017.

  Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: Talk of retirement - although unlikely in 2017 - means owners need to have backup plan.

  Jared Goff, LAR: Hiring of McVay/implementation of West Coast offense may be what the doctor ordered.

  Jimmy Garoppolo, NE: If/when he is traded, he is a sure bet to be a capable fantasy backup regardless of where he lands.

  Blake Bortles, JAC: Andrew Luck-like physical talent meets Byron Leftwich-like throwing motion.

  Paxton Lynch, DEN: Long-term developmental project may not be ready to start until 2019.

  Eli Manning, NYG: O-line did him no favors in 2016, but he appeared to regress regardless.

  Mike Glennon, TB: Could improve ranking by nearly 10 spots depending on where he lands in free agency.

  AJ McCarron, CIN: Capable of being low-end starting NFL quarterback; affordable offseason trade target.

  Teddy Bridgewater, MIN: Severe knee injury could mean he misses most of 2017.

  Trevor Siemian, DEN: Showed flashes in his first shot as starter but clock is ticking; team has more invested in Paxton Lynch.

  Tony Romo, DAL: Likely release candidate could prove to be effective one-year stopgap option.

  Carson Palmer, ARI: Looking more and more like 2017 will be final season.

  Cody Kessler, CLE: Showed long-term backup potential as rookie; likely to play that role as Browns seek starter this spring.

  Trevone Boykin, SEA: Talented dual-threat QB stuck behind a stud starter for at least two more years.

  Christian Hackenberg, NYJ: Redshirted by design in 2016; unlikely to get much of a chance to play if Jets land QB in free agency.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.