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 Rankings/Projections > Dynasty Rankings  
Updated: 2/21/18
Doug Orth | Archive | Email |

My offseason view on dynasty rankings is significantly different than it is during the season. For starters, my main focus in the offseason is loading up on as much proven young talent as possible. During the season, I am more concerned about what I already have on my roster and making the subtle moves necessary in order to secure a championship.

In short, potential takes on a much more significant part of dynasty rankings in the offseason than usual. Free agency reshuffles the deck every year and can allow a second-string player to emerge as the more established veteran either chases a bigger paycheck, a Super Bowl ring or both. The draft introduces a number of new variables into the fantasy equation but can also knock a few of the veterans near the bottom of the rankings off the charts completely.

Based on the turnover rate in the NFL each year (roughly 25 percent), it seems foolish to consider anything past three years at any position simply because the odds suggest that three-fourths of the players in these rankings will be insignificant at the end of the 2020 season.

Because this is a pre-free agency submission, there is also the added element of not knowing where unrestricted free agents will end up, which obviously affects where they are ranked at the moment. They have been designated 'FA' below even though they are still technically under contract.

At any rate, here are the main criteria I have chosen to take into consideration while ranking quarterbacks:

Considerations for QB
  • Talent
  • Four years of solid (or better) production remaining
  • Age
  • Age/skill of supporting cast
  • Durability
  • Proven consistency
  • Coaching/scheme stability/situation
These rankings are for PPR leagues, where each touchdown is worth six points. I will release my next set of rankings after the NFL Draft. I will then update the rankings before the start of the 2018 regular season and again midway through the season.

Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk
Chg Rank Player Tm Age
  1 Carson Wentz PHI 25
  2 Deshaun Watson HOU 22
  3 Aaron Rodgers GB 34
  4 Andrew Luck IND 28
Tier 2
  5 Matthew Stafford DET 30
  6 Russell Wilson SEA 29
  7 Marcus Mariota TEN 24
  8 Jameis Winston TB 24
  9 Cam Newton CAR 28
  10 Dak Prescott DAL 24
Tier 3
  11 Patrick Mahomes KC 22
  12 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 26
  13 Kirk Cousins FA 29
  14 Tom Brady NE 40
  15 Jared Goff LAR 23
  16 Philip Rivers LAC 36
  17 Drew Brees FA 39
  18 Derek Carr OAK 27
  19 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 36
Tier 4
  20 Mitchell Trubisky CHI 23
  21 Andy Dalton CIN 30
  22 Alex Smith WAS 33
  23 Matt Ryan ATL 32
  24 Tyrod Taylor BUF 28
  25 Ryan Tannehill MIA 29
  26 Sam Bradford FA 30
Tier 5
  27 Eli Manning NYG 37
  28 Blake Bortles JAC 26
  29 Case Keenum FA 30
  30 AJ McCarron FA 27
  31 Joe Flacco BAL 33
  32 Josh McCown FA 38
Tier 6
  33 Nick Foles PHI 29
  34 Jacoby Brissett IND 25
  35 Nathan Peterman BUF 23
  36 Chad Kelly DEN 24
  37 DeShone Kizer CLE 22
  38 Teddy Bridgewater FA 25
  39 Trevor Siemian DEN 26
  40 Taysom Hill NO 27
  Carson Wentz, PHI: Made his case for MVP before knee injuries; still hasn't come close to his ceiling.

  Deshaun Watson, HOU: Strong case could be made for No. 1, but seven-game sample isn't enough to pull the trigger.

  Andrew Luck, IND: Shoulder still a question mark and the most serious injury afflicting the top four QBs on this list.

  Russell Wilson, SEA: How much longer can a player who relies heavily on improvisation/mobility overcome weak line play?

  Marcus Mariota, TEN: Freed from the shackles of Mularkey/Robiskie, 2018 could be the long-awaited breakout season.

  Cam Newton, CAR: Will new OC Norv Turner be the answer to his inconsistency?

  Patrick Mahomes, KC: Combination of age/talent/supporting cast could vault him into the top five in short order.

  Jimmy Garoppolo, SF: Excelled late in 2017 despite limited supporting cast; can he maintain similar career arc with huge contract?

  Kirk Cousins, FA: Could find himself in the top 10 if he finds a new home in a place like Minnesota or Denver.

  Tom Brady, NE: Already in uncharted territory (age); seems improbable he will maintain high level for two-plus years.

  Jared Goff, LAR: Need to see more proof before "breakout" feels legitimate.

  Drew Brees, FA: No discernable drop-off in overall play, but Saints' newfound emphasis on running game figures to stick.

  Derek Carr, OAK: Rebound candidate, moving from neophyte OC Todd Downing's system to Jon Gruden's.

  Mitchell Trubisky, CHI: Gets a huge boost from switch to Nagy/Helfrich at OC.

  Alex Smith, WAS: Move from KC to Washington results in a drop-off in scheme and supporting cast.

  Tyrod Taylor, BUF: Accounted for himself nicely for the most part in offense-deficient Buffalo; will Bills keep him around?

  Sam Bradford, FA: Would make for a common-sense, mid-priced bridge QB in Denver or Arizona.

  Blake Bortles, JAC: Showed glimpses late in season, but Jags still tried hard to hide him.

  AJ McCarron, FA: New entry to FA market figures to land starting job, perhaps in Cleveland?

  Nick Foles, PHI: Barring trade, Super Bowl MVP stuck behind Wentz for one more year.

  Nathan Peterman, BUF: Likely starter in Buffalo in 2018 barring high draft pick; will new OC Brian Daboll be enough?

  Chad Kelly, DEN: Most talented QB on team; will Broncos land a high-priced FA or take a first-round QB?

  DeShone Kizer, CLE: Browns are a near-lock to take QB with one of first two picks.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.