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 Rankings/Projections > Dynasty Rankings  
Updated: 5/8/18
Doug Orth | Archive | Email |



Free agency has passed and the NFL Draft is in the rear view mirror as well, which means rosters - at least for fantasy purposes - are pretty much set.

My offseason view on dynasty rankings is significantly different than it is during the season. For starters, my main focus in the offseason is loading up on as much proven young talent as possible. During the season, I am more concerned about what I already have on my roster and making the subtle moves necessary in order to secure a championship.

In short, potential takes on a much more significant part of dynasty rankings in the offseason than usual. Free agency reshuffles the deck every year and can allow a second-string player to emerge as the more established veteran either chases a bigger paycheck, a Super Bowl ring or both. The draft introduces a number of new variables into the fantasy equation but can also knock a few of the veterans near the bottom of the rankings off the charts completely.

Based on the turnover rate in the NFL each year (roughly 25 percent), it seems unwise to look more than three years into the future any non-quarterback position (or at least put much weight into such a projection) simply because the odds suggest that three-fourths of the players in these rankings will be insignificant at the end of the 2021 season. Furthermore, coaching staffs seem to change almost annually, further stirring up the pot.

Here are the main criteria I have chosen to take into consideration while ranking quarterbacks:

Considerations for QB
  • Talent
  • Four years of solid (or better) production remaining
  • Age
  • Age/skill of supporting cast
  • Durability
  • Proven consistency
  • Coaching/scheme stability/situation
These rankings are for PPR leagues, where each touchdown is worth six points. I will release my next set of rankings before the start of the 2018 regular season. Players with an up arrow are those that moved up eight or more spots from my previous set of rankings. Likewise, a down arrow represents a drop of eight or more spots.
 
Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk
QUARTERBACKS
Chg Rank Player Tm Age
  1 Carson Wentz PHI 25
  2 Aaron Rodgers GB 34
  3 Deshaun Watson HOU 22
  4 Andrew Luck IND 28
  5 Russell Wilson SEA 29
Tier 2
  6 Cam Newton CAR 29
  7 Matthew Stafford DET 30
  8 Kirk Cousins MIN 29
  9 Jameis Winston TB 24
  10 Marcus Mariota TEN 24
  11 Patrick Mahomes KC 22
  12 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 26
  13 Jared Goff LAR 23
Tier 3
  14 Tom Brady NE 40
  15 Philip Rivers LAC 36
  16 Drew Brees NO 39
  17 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 36
Tier 4
  18 Mitchell Trubisky CHI 23
  19 Lamar Jackson BAL 21
  20 Derek Carr OAK 27
  21 Matt Ryan ATL 33
22 Dak Prescott DAL 24
  23 Alex Smith WAS 34
  24 Sam Darnold NYJ 21
  25 Baker Mayfield CLE 23
Tier 5
  26 Josh Rosen ARI 21
  27 Andy Dalton CIN 30
  28 Josh Allen BUF 22
  29 Ryan Tannehill MIA 29
  30 Case Keenum DEN 30
  31 Blake Bortles JAC 26
  32 Eli Manning NYG 37
Tier 6
33 Tyrod Taylor CLE 28
34 Sam Bradford ARI 30
  35 Joe Flacco BAL 33
  36 Jacoby Brissett IND 25
  37 Nick Foles PHI 29
38 AJ McCarron BUF 27
  39 Chad Kelly DEN 24
  40 Taysom Hill NO 27
 
COMMENTS
  Andrew Luck, IND: QB1 when healthy - a state we haven't seen from him in nearly three years.

  Cam Newton, CAR: Should be interesting to see if new OC Norv Turner can take Newton to another level.

  Kirk Cousins, MIN: Best supporting cast he's had; career year should be in store.

  Patrick Mahomes, KC: Upside is huge in offense w/ rocket-armed QB throwing to Kelce/Hill/Watkins/Hunt

  Mitchell Trubisky, CHI: Perhaps no team has upgraded its offensive supporting cast more this spring than Chicago.

  Lamar Jackson, BAL: Statistical upside worth gambling on, even if he doesn't start a game before 2019.

Dak Prescott, DAL: Goal of fielding Dak-friendly offense may be a year away; lost his top two targets in the offseason.

  Eli Manning, NYG: Love the weapons and new HC, but Eli hasn't really been good in fantasy since 2015.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.