Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!

Create An Account  |  Advertise  |  Contact      

Staff Writer
Email Matt

Matt's Articles

20/20 Hindsight - Week 6

As we all know Hindsight is 20/20. This weekly column is devoted to learning from common mistakes and serves as FFToday’s “Fantasy Football Confessional.”

Heading into week 6, I was ranked 23rd out of 594 FFTOC entries for the $60 tournament and my picks couldn’t have been much better across the board.

I have laid back a bit on my choices of runners and quarterbacks thus far. This was not a conscious decision to conserve players as much as I liked their match ups and they didn’t perform (Brees and Young, specifically). Fortunately, it still paid off for me. Here are my results for week six:

FFTOC Update
 Pos  Player  Pts  Comments
QB C. Palmer 25.0 KC was going to be able to run on Cincy so Palmer would have to throw a lot, and it worked out just as I imagined.
RB L. Johnson 20.3 The Bengals defense is a unit I have routinely targeted each week and LJ’s effort was questioned last week in the media. Don’t believe that LJ doesn’t read the papers…
RB R. Brown 17.0 No touchdowns, but excellent yardage.
WR K. Curtis 18.1 Eagles are always good after the bye week and the Jets defense is suspect.
WR C. Johnson 8.3 When my worst skill player performance this week is a decent day from Chad Johnson, I’m thrilled.
WR B. Edwards 24.7 The Bills have a suspect defense; the Jets have a suspect defense; and yep, you guessed it, 3 out of 4 AFC East defenses are sieves.
TE T. Gonzalez 22.2 Still the most reliable option through the air for KC.
K S. Gostkowski 11.0 The run on good kicker performances continues…
DEF Giants -
  Total 146.6 This could be a top-10 week.

Let’s move on to the week one files of 20/20 Hindsight.

Would've (From The Who Would Have Known File)

Adrian Peterson Would Have A Game For The Ages Against The Bears Defense:
Peterson looked like he took a quarter of his college highlight reel and re-enacted them at Soldier Field out of the I-formation. And then the rookie nearly runs out of his pants on a kick return to put the Vikings in position for the upset. The funny thing is Chester Taylor had an okay fantasy effort for a bye week player—Taylor and AD had over 300 yards on the ground.

Lesson Learned: I love Adrian Peterson’s skill as a runner. If you heard me try to make a semi-interested Mike Krueger watch my DVD recording of Peterson run like a one-man wrecking crew in the second half against Oregon at the Insight Bowl, you’d understand. If you have kids under the age of 12, then it’s possible you saw the Disney movie, Spirit Stallion of the Cimarron. If you did, and remember the scene where the horse refuses to be broken by the cavalry, then you have a perfect comparison of what Peterson looked like with the ball in his hands in that game.

Yet before I enshrine Peterson in Canton, I would like to point out that as good as the rookie looked in the open field, the Vikings offensive line absolutely made craters out of the Bears defensive front. I honestly believe these backs could have gained at least 40 yards on each of these highlight reel runs we’ve enjoyed from Peterson this weekend: LT, LJ, Bush, Norwood, Ronnie and Chris Brown, Maroney, Alexander, Lynch, Dunn, Parker, Davenport, Green, Julius and Thomas Jones, Addai, Jones-Drew, Taylor, Jackson, Deshaun Foster, and DeAngelo Williams.

You don’t agree? Just last week the Bears made Deshawn Wynn look like a first round pick! We’re talking about a back that lacks breakaway speed and still gained over 40 yards on a run up the gut in the first quarter of the game. Some of the guys I mentioned could have scored on the same run hopping on one foot! Seriously, Peterson was amazing in the open field, but there was a lot happening in his favor to give him a running start and no one within a 4-yard radius of him until he was into the second level of the defense. The reason has been the decimated Bears defensive front. The linebackers aren’t getting free reign to make plays anymore.

Peterson is a special back, but if the opposing team gets ahead early you’re not going to see numbers reminiscent of LJ or LT on a regular basis. I recommended AD as a 4th or 5th round pick this year and there’s no denying he’s put up elite numbers this month. Just remember that even the great Earl Campbell and Eric Dickerson had teams with a complementary passing game—the Vikings don’t. With that said, if you play in a league with me, I’ve got some potential deals for you to take Peterson off your hands so you can allow me to deal with his inconsistency…(If we’re in a dynasty league, I could be swayed to pull a Ditka and offer you my entire draft!)

Could've (From The Who Could Have Known File)

Derek Anderson Could Continue To Play At A Productive Level:
A month ago, Browns fans were chanting Brady…Brady…Brady…Now they’d be chanting Derek…Derek…Derek if Crennel and the Browns opted to start Quinn. When you go 18 for 25 for 245 yards and 3 scores and lead your team to a 41-31 victory, you can make the hometown fans forget about their native son and Golden Domer. With 14 scores in five starts, you can’t deny is the leading candidate as the surprise fantasy player of the 2007 season and a must-start at quarterback.

Lesson Learned: I believe this speaks volumes about in-depth, player scouting. Anderson was a decent player at Oregon State and coach Mike Riley told anyone who would listen that his quarterback had the fundamental talent to develop into an elite quarterback at the next level. Considering that Brady, Bulger, Romo, Warner, and Hasselbeck were no where close to 1st round picks, forgetting about a young player can come back to bite you.

For instance, there’s Matt Moore, another quarterback from Oregon State who many draft analysts and scouts liked as a developmental prospect with a high ceiling for success. In fact, I’m one of them. I know that Vinny Testaverde was brought off his couch to start over Moore this week, but it wasn’t as if Derek Anderson was leading Baltimore on winning streaks before getting cut. Here’s my take on Moore.

David Garrard Would Be Interception-Free For This Long:
David Garrard Although his fantasy points per game average makes him a low-end starter at best, David Garrard is a player you don’t want to ignore. He’s completing 66% of his passes to a bunch of no-name receivers. His fantasy production isn’t spectacular because he hasn’t faced a team that has scored more than 14 points against the Jags until last weekend. If his numbers versus the Texans indicate what he might do versus an opponent with an offense, you might want to hang onto the Jaguars quarterback. Especially when you consider that Jacksonville had to completely retool their offense to fit Garrard when Del Rio made the decision to dump Leftwich.

Lesson Learned: Something you will see in my Thursday column is that nearly half the top 20 fantasy producers at RB and QB after the first 6 weeks will rise or drop more than 7 spots between now and the end of the season. David Garrard could be one of those guys on the rise as he faces the meat of the division schedule with an offensive system beginning to gel. He won’t be a stud QB, but I think he could become a solid starter who continues to limit his mistakes.

Kurt Warner Would Get Knocked Out Of The Game After 2 Attempts:
I was so high on Warner as a mid-season waiver wire gem once Leinart went down. Now I’m glad I only won him in one league. Still, my hopes of riding a Cardinals offensive juggernaut to a title will likely remain a fantasy.

Lesson Learned: When it rains, it pours…

Should've (From The I Knew I Should’ve File)

Larry Johnson Would Have A Good Effort Versus The Bengals:
LJ looked like the bruiser of old against an ailing Bengals defense that can’t stop anyone. If not for a terrific play from Deltha O’Neal, Johnson could have had a 2006-typical, two-score day. This was a much-needed, breakout week for Johnson’s owners who were beginning to sour on the Chiefs meal ticket.

Lesson Learned: If you don’t think most players furtively pay attention to the media then you are living in a dream world. Even if they ignore the newspaper and broadcast media, reporters will routinely ask players questions about media-related analysis from other sources. Last week I heard a few NFL analysts say that Johnson wasn’t making his best effort. This week, Johnson appeared to be hitting the hole very hard and with a level of intensity we didn’t see previously. Did his hold out hurt him? Are the Bengals just that bad and this game is just a nice moment in a very disappointing season for LJ? Or is LJ just warming up, ala LT this weekend? I think LJ makes a great #2 RB—just where I rated him this summer, but not where you could likely have drafted him.

Kept Daunte Culpepper On The Bench:
Culpepper had 5 touchdowns, but only 75 yards passing against a woebegone Miami defense who allowed 41 points to Cleveland. Despite a bye week to prepare, Culpepper mustered just 1 score and 2 interceptions against the Chargers.

Lesson Learned: Culpepper’s stat line is likely to become the norm this year: 230 yards passing, 5 yards rushing, a score, and a couple of interceptions. If you reverse the touchdown to interception ratio occasionally, you’ll know what to expect from the Raiders QB.

Nagging Feelings—Week 7

You know now I mentioned Ken Darby last week? He was cut by Tampa 24 hours before the game to make room for Zack Crockett. I’m not sure of this move, but Crockett is a known commodity for Gruden. As long as he doesn’t bring back Tyrone Wheatley or Napoleon Kauffman…

Anyone else notice that Vincent Jackson has been a disappointment for fantasy owners? I’d pull the plug on this guy if you rely on him as anything more than a #3 fantasy WR. The more the Chargers return to the Schottenheimer game plan—let’s call it what it is, Norv—the less Jackson will get targets.

Is Kevin Walter the AFC South version of Wes Welker? Nope. Walter is 6-3, 215 lbs., and lacks the speed of Welker. At the same time, he’s going to continue to receive a lot of targets with Andre Johnson in the training room. It would be more accurate to call Walter the AFC South version of Brian Finneran. If it’s the early version of Finneran, the Texans (and fantasy owners) can expect a sticky-fingered receiver with good body control. If it’s the Finneran of recent times, don’t bother adding him to your roster. Personally, I think last week was the game of his life, but he’ll have more chances to prove me wrong.