Each week I’ll provide you with a rundown by position of key
waiver wire adds. We’ll evaluate not just breakouts based
on past performance, but also who could deliver this week based
on a soft matchup. Stats will be provided based on a 12-team PPR
league, with players less than 75% (preferably less than 50%) ownership
being considered.
Against an expected strong Eagles defense, Mac delivered 316-3-1
passing on 35-of-54 attempts in Week 1. He even chipped in 2-15
rushing. It helped that Patriots fell behind early and while we
can’t expect a Belichick team to throw like this every week,
it’s possible the Bill O’Brien-led offense will be
more explosive than last year. A strong showing from the Dolphins
offense in Week 1 could force another shootout by the Patriots
in Week 2.
Love put up 245-3-0 (adding 3-12-0 rushing), all while missing
top target Christian Watson and having Romeo Doubs (hamstring)
questionable entering the game. Some caution is advised, however,
as he delivered these numbers on only 15 completions and 27 attempts.
While the Bears defense was abysmal last year and may have continued
that trend in Week 1, Atlanta’s defense was strong against Carolina
QB Bryce Young and was middle of the pack against QBs in 2022.
Week 3’s opponent (NO) was top 5 against QBs in 2022, but weeks
4 and 5 (LV and DET) were both bottom 10 defenses against QBs
last year.
Purdy delivered an efficient 220-2-0 passing line on 19-of-29
attempts against a Steelers pass defense that was about league
average against QBs last year. Purdy seems to have started off
where he finished, staying hot and delivering a win.
While the Rams stymied Geno Smith in Week 1, Purdy put up 2 or
3 TDs in each of his first seven games in 2022, while throwing
more than 30 times only twice. He’s not likely to post huge numbers
but he has been fairly consistent and efficient and looks to do
so again in Week 2.
With J.K. Dobbins injuring his Achilles and out for the year,
the rushing attack for Baltimore figures to be a priority add
this week. Both backs had 8 carries against HOU, with Hill cashing
two TDs on 9 yards rushing and Edwards putting up 32 yards and
chipping in a two-point conversion.
Edwards is expected to have the first shot at early down work,
but Baltimore has sung the praises of Hill in the past and appears
to trust him in the red zone. Expectations need to be tempered
as the workload will likely be split, but the Ravens have shown
the ability to have two fantasy-worthy RBs in the past.
Cincinnati isn’t the easiest opponent (ranked top10 defense in
2022 against the run), but Nick Chubb put up 18-108-0 against
them in Week 1 and you’re buying Hill and Edwards for their long-term
prospects, not just Week 2.
In Week 1, Allgeier delivered 15-75-2 rushing to go along with
3-3-19-0 receiving (targets-receptions-yards-TD) against a Carolina
defense that was middle of the pack in 2022.
While Bijan Robinson is the real deal and will continue to dominate
touches, Atlanta’s run-heavy attack appears to have enough work
for two running backs. Allgeier only saw 17 targets in all of
2022, so seeing 3 in Week 1 while piling up 15 carries is a positive
sign.
Green Bay was a bottom 10 defense against RBs last year so it
looks like Allgeier could be in for another solid day on the ground.
Gainwell dominated PHI RB touches with 14-54-0 on the ground
to go with 4-4-20-0 receiving in Week 1. D’Andre Swift and Boston
Scott totaled 2 carries and 3 targets, while Rashaad Penny was
a healthy scratch.
Minnesota largely held Rachaad White in check in Week 1, but in
2022 they were more forgiving against RBs, ranking 11th worst.
If Gainwell can keep up his 62% snap share and top-10 43% touches/snap
rate, he’ll be a solid pickup in the Eagles run-heavy attack.
Williams led the Rams in rushing with a 15-52-2 line against
SEA, and although he was targeted twice, he failed to reel in
either one. The Rams have a tough matchup against the 49ers in
Week 2, but we need to keep an eye on Williams since he may have
carved out a role with Cam Akers struggling against Seahawks.
Sean McVay tends to prefer a bellcow approach at RB so there's
no guarantee Williams will continue to get looks, but if Akers
disappoints again, they could seek to move quickly to replace
him.
Kelley went 16-91-1 and missed his only target against the Dolphins,
with most of the work coming in the second half. Austin Ekeler
appears to be dealing with an ankle injury, and his Week 2 status
is in doubt. If Ekeler is unable to go, Kelley would be the primary
recipient against a tough Tennessee rushing defense, although
the schedule lightens up with the Raiders and Vikings in weeks
3 and 4.
Nacua seemed to step into Cooper Kupp’s role, going 15-10-119-0
against the Seahawks with a dominant 40% target share. The 49ers
are a tough Week 2 opponent, but Nacua is a priority add if he
can fill Kupp’s shoes for as long as he is out. It’s clear that
Stafford trusts him, and Stafford has shown the desire to force
feed a WR he has a connection with.
Bourne benefitted with both Tyquan Thornton and DeVante Parker
being ruled out, but he still delivered a 91.2% snap share and
20.4% target share while producing 11-6-64-2.
It’s not clear that Bourne can keep up this up when everyone
is healthy, but with new OC Bill O’Brien in town it’s
possible Bourne is one of the biggest benefactors. Miami’s
offense can light up the scoreboard, so they should provide plenty
of opportunities for the NE passing attack.
Myers put up 10-9-81-2 before going down with a concussion in
the 4th quarter against the Broncos. Although he will most likely
not be available Week 2 against a tough Bills pass defense, Myers’
ability to soak up targets seems to have carried over from his
New England days.
Davante Adams is still the alpha dog in this passing game, but
Myers appears to have a role going forward when healthy.
The Bill O’Brien tight end effect is real. We know from
years past that BOB loves to use TEs, and he didn’t disappoint
in Week 1. Henry had a 6-5-56-1 against a tough Eagles defense.
Henry should find plenty of space to operate in Week 2 against
a Miami defense that was one of the league’s worst against TEs
in 2022, while also figuring the potent Miami offense will force
New England to keep it’s foot on the gas.
Hurst was rookie QB Bryce Young’s security blanket, posting
7-5-41-1 amidst a healthy 22.4% target share (4th among TEs in
Week 1).
New Orleans was the toughest team against TEs in 2022 so it’s
not an easy matchup in Week 2, but Carolina faces three bottom-10
defenses against TEs in 2022 (SEA, DET, MIA) before their Week
7 bye.
Buccaneers vs CHI: Tampa Bay did a nice job against
Minnesota in Week 1 (2 sacks, 3 turnovers, 17 pts allowed) and it
looks like Chicago still hasn’t found their winning formula
on offense.
Lions vs SEA: Detroit did well to contain Patrick
Mahomes on the road in Week 1 (20 points allowed) while Seattle
struggled against the Rams.
Texans @ IND, Colts @ HOU:
Two divisional opponents square off, and both defenses put up
solid efforts in both meetings last year. I’d give the edge
to the home team (Texans) if forced to choose.
Giants @ ARI, Cardinals @ NYG:
Another two-fer. Arizona dominated the Washington offense in Week
1 (6 sacks, 2 FR, 1 INT, 1 TD) and the Giants offense looked dreadful
against the Cowboys on Sunday night. The Giants defense was solid
in 2022 and the Cardinals offensive attack lacks punch totaling
just 210 yards in Week 1.
