Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted
Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as
many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible.
The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent.
As mentioned in my previous
articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each
week is more so a result of targets. And failing that –
Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these
three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary,
helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.
Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you
to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not
have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700
per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and
that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.
Mohamed Sanu and the rest of the Falcons
receivers have a juicy matchup against Phillip Gaines.
Sanu was featured in this column last week as a potential bargain
based on the number of opportunities he sees in the right games,
and he did not disappoint. Sanu hauled in all 8 of his targets
for 65 yards and took a direct snap for 5 yards in the red zone.
While the five rushing yards were nothing to write home about,
I think it illustrated something deeper: Sanu is a key cog in
this Falcons offense. The challenge with Sanu is his good games
are difficult to predict, but this week the Falcons plays the
Chiefs, which means when he’s not matched up against Marcus
Peters, and Sanu is going to see a lot of Phillip Gaines, a cornerback
who is currently giving up the third-most fantasy points per route
run. The fact there is a trending meme that says “when you
need big gaines, throw at Phillip Gaines,” tells you everything
you need to know about his down year. Look for Sanu to get an
adjusted 8 opportunities, and for you pay a budget friendly $550
for each of them.
7 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (DOME)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO
Sanu will be see his fair share of Gaines.
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 4: -1
AO
Totals: $4,400 / 8 AO = $550 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
The value in this model is that it converts salary into opportunities
so we are better able to find bargains. When one looks at Michael
Thomas’ salary, it does not scream cheap. However, based
on the number of adjusted opportunities he sees, Thomas can occasionally
be a steal. I believe this week is going to be one of those weeks
for three main reasons. First, he is playing the Lions. Second,
the Lions only exceptional cornerback will be shadowing a frustrated
Brandin Cooks. Slay is currently allowing only 55% of his targets
to be caught, so despite Cooks’ grumblings for more targets,
Brees is a veteran player and will not force the ball if he is
covered. Expect Brees to instead displace those targets onto Michael
Thomas. Finally, the game is being played in a dome, with Vegas
predicting over 54 points being scored. Anticipating which Saints
WR is going to go off on a Sunday can be difficult, but the evidence
suggests Thomas this week.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (DOME)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO
Expect Darius Slay to be drape himself over Cooks like a wet blanket
and help displace targets onto Thomas.
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 5: -1
AO
Totals: $6,900 / 11 AO= $627 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
In keeping with the theme this week of playing a strong WR2 because
the WR1 is getting shadowed, might I suggest Jamison Crowder.
Crowder is currently the 16th ranked Fantasy WR and is seeing
enough targets to keep him in the top 25 conversation for the
rest of the season. In addition, this week he travels to face
the Cardinals, who have had trouble stopping slot cornerbacks.
Moreover, shutdown corner Patrick Peterson will likely shadow
DeSean Jackson, helping to force more targets to Crowder. The
Redskins are also predicted by Vegas to be down by 3, and will
be playing in a dome, something that always helps late in the
season.
7 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (DOME)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 3: +1
AO
Totals: $5,800 / 10 AO = $580 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
I am starting to think the Bucs 2016 offensive playbook is just
a photo of Mike Evans. Averaging an insane 12 targets per game,
Evans is on pace nearly 200 targets. This means that even at his
current salary, with a simple game flow adjustment, he lands in
bargain territory. As mentioned in previous articles, when a player
receives 150 targets or more in a season, he is a 99% lock to
make top 25 in fantasy WR scoring. At this point it looks like
nothing can slow him down. Even the vaunted Seahawks defense struggled
to contain him. One thing I have continuously noticed about Evans
is he does not always look open, yet he finds a way to come down
with the catch. He reminds me of a younger Calvin Johnson, another
player who just always found a way to catch anything in his radius.
If you dig deeper into the stats, this becomes clear again. Of
the top 40 WR in the league, Evans is a lowly 39th in yards after
the catch (YAC). And while that statistic would normally be alarming,
when combined with his average depth of target of over 16 yards,
the evidence is clear: Evans likes to run deep routes and come
down with contested catches. He simply attacks the coverage. Evans
is now just the fourth WR in NFL history to have 1000 yards in
each of his first three seasons. The others? A.J. Green, John
Jefferson and Randy Moss. Pretty good company.
12 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 4: +1
AO
Totals: $8,600 / 14 AO = $614 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
