Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted
Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as
many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible.
The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent.
As mentioned in my previous
articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each
week is more so a result of targets. And failing that –
Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these
three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary,
helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.
Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you
to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not
have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700
per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and
that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.
The return of Will Fuller could give DeAndre
Hopkins a boost. His price tag makes him a consideration.
2016 is a weird year - Donald Trump is president, water bottle
flips and gorilla memes rule the internet, and DeAndre Hopkins
Draftkings salary is $6,500. What’s more, is he has a received
a healthy 83 targets in nine games, and while that is a far cry
from his 132 in nine games last year, it is still more than enough
to produce. So what gives? In simple, he lacks chemistry with
Brock
Osweiler, who in turn, lacks chemistry with his right arm.
So why this week, do I think Hopkins is going to be worth your
DFS dollars? First, with his current adjusted targets, you are
paying a very cheap $500 per opportunity. Second, Will
Fuller is back. At the start of the season when Fuller was
at full health, the pass game opened up more for both players.
Third, the Texans are trying desperately to establish the connection,
giving Hopkins double digit targets in three of the last four
weeks. Finally, while I don’t believe in the narrative that “he
is too talented to be kept down any longer,” I do when it comes
to big games on international stages. As I said before, Donald
Trump is president. It’s 2016, anything can happen.
10 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Clear)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 6: +1
AO
Totals: $6,500/12 AO = $541 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
In the three games that he has been healthy (injured early in
the fourth game), Moncrief has received 22 targets, and turned
them into 3 touchdowns, and 160 yards. Moreover, he has a nose
for end-zone and always receives a number of red zone looks. Vegas
sees this game against the Titans as a shootout, with the over/under
set at 53.5 (the highest scoring game of the week), so I like
his odds of success.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Dome)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% AO
With Dorsett lining up against McCourty, the Titans best corner,
and Hilton lining up against Brice McCain, the Titans second best
defender, Moncrief will be lining up against Perrish Cox. Cox
is one of the leagues worst cover corners. In fact, Cox is ranked
No.110 on Pro Football Focus with a shockingly poor grade of 42.6.
Expect additional targets thrown to Moncrief.
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 3: -1
AO
Totals: $6,100/10 AO= $610 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Woods has 40 targets in the last five games. While never an explosive
player, he has proven to have consistent hands and polished route
running. Last week he went off for a career high single game yardage
of 164 versus the Seahawks, and received a whopping 13 targets.
This week he is playing the Bengals who have a good but not great
pass defense, and he is the only viable WR1 left after multiple
injuries to the Bills WR group. What’s more, is the Bills
are expected to again be down on the scoreboard. Look for Woods
to receive a healthy number of targets and post another strong
fantasy outing.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 3: +1
AO
Totals: $4,700/10 AO= $470 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Remember what I said about 2016 being a weird year? Adams is a
top 10 fantasy WR. Not bad for a guy who was waiver wire fodder
at the start of the year. With 72 targets in nine games, Adams
has the requisite number of targets for fantasy success, and he
is not wasting them with 626 yards and 6 touchdowns. This weekend
he will be playing the Redskins, and more specifically, he will
be lining up against my favorite burn victim of 2016 - CB Bashaud
Breeland. Look for more of the defensive attention to be focused
on Jordy Nelson, and for Adams to thrive yet again.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Clear)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: +15% Norman will focus
on Nelson.
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 3: +1
AO
Totals: $6,700/11 AO = $609 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
