Our goal using Dollar Per Adjusted
Opportunity (DPAO) is to find wide receivers getting as
many opportunities to produce for as little salary as possible.
The real value of this model is its reliance on targets over talent.
As mentioned in my previous
articles, while talent is important, cracking the top 24 each
week is more so a result of targets. And failing that –
Average Depth of Target (aDOT) or touchdowns. DPAO analyzes these
three variables and contrasts it with a player’s salary,
helping us uncover undervalued DFS gems.
Finding players with DPAO values between $500-600 will allow you
to build your roster with four potentially top 24 WRs and not
have to make major concessions elsewhere. When we pay over $600-700
per opportunity, we risk over paying per chance to succeed and
that has a ripple effect throughout the roster.
Too Cheap: Tyrell Williams currently sits
as the No.20 wide receiver averaging 15.7 yards per catch.
Tyrell “The Gazelle” Williams is used to carrying the water for
the Chargers after his teammates go down with injuries. This week
fellow Chargers WR1 Travis Benjamin did not practice Wednesday
and visited a doctor last week for a second opinion on his sprained
PCL. In case you didn’t know, that is a very bad sign, leading
many to think Benjamin will not take the field until after their
Week 11 bye. Williams, while having some knee issues of his own,
has still played every week and turned his 55 targets into nearly
600 yards and 3 TDs. In nine games he is the 19th best fantasy
WR, and his arrow is pointing up. Look for him to receive a healthy
number of targets (as he has in every game as a starter when not
facing Denver) and find success versus the Dolphins bottom ranked
pass defense.
9 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be up by 4: -1
AO
Totals: $5,700 / 9 AO = $633 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
With the over/under set at 51 points, the Falcons vs. Eagles game
looks to be a barnburner. The main challenge we have is finding
out which player will be the main beneficiary of those points
scored. I believe that will be Jordan Matthews for three main
reasons. First, the Falcons have given up the second most yards,
touchdowns and points to wide receivers. Adding to this, Matthews
runs his routes out of the slot, which only further separates
him up from the Falcons top ranked corner, Desmond Trufant. Second,
the Eagles will have to throw the ball, a lot, to keep up with
Matty Ice, Julio Jones and the rest of the Falcons top ranked
offense. Finally, the November weather is perfect, with full sun
expected. The stage is set… let’s see if Jordan Matthews can deliver.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 1: +1
AO
Totals: $5,900/ 10 AO= $590 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Kenny Britt is on pace for a career high in targets (110) putting
him only 10 targets shy of the ever important 120 target threshold.
If you need a reminder, players who receive 120 targets or more
in a season, have a 75% chance of coming top 25 in fantasy scoring.
People are wondering why Britt is finally breaking out in his
eighth season, the reason is because he has never received more
than 90 targets. When the Rams decided to give him 84, he turned
that into 750 yards and 3 TDs. When they decided to give him only
72, he still turned it into nearly 700 yards and 3 TDs. He is
a supremely talented and underrated player who has never really
had steady quarterback play. This Sunday versus the Jets, look
for Britt to again receive a healthy number of targets and continue
his impressive season.
7 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: N/A
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Full Sun)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment:
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 3: +1
AO
Totals: $4,900 /9 AO= $544 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)
Alshon Jeffrey is not having an amazing season. However, he is
still receiving an average of 8 targets per game, has nearly 600
yards in eight games, and is continuing to be targeted on deep
routes. This week, Jeffery has both Jay Cutler back at QB and
the Buccaneers bottom ranked defense on tap, so there should be
no reason why he can’t produce a vintage Alshon Jeffrey
performance. Look for Jeffrey to be targeted early and often as
Chicago tries to stay close with Tampa’s high scoring offense.
8 projected targets
Adjustments:
A) ADOT Adjustment: +1 AO (running with an ADoT of 14+)
B) Weather Adjustment: +1 AO (Mostly Cloudy)
C) Strong CB (top 8) Shadow Adjustment: N/A
D) Game Flow Adjustment: Projected by Vegas to be down by 2: +1
AO
Totals: $6,600/ 11 AO = $600 per adjusted
opportunity (AO)