Cam Newton has seen his average fantasy points per game drop
each season since taking the league by storm as a rookie in 2011.
When healthy, he has produced top-10 results by relying on his
rushing totals. All signs indicate he will be unrestricted and
ready to run for the opening of the 2015 season, which should
make him a popular choice after the top four or five quarterbacks
are off the board. Without a deep talented pool of pass catchers
and a gaping hole at left tackle, choosing Newton to anchor your
fantasy team comes with plenty of risk. Over the past two regular
seasons, Newton has logged nine games with more than 25 fantasy
points and 13 games with less than 20 fantasy points. More recently,
his numbers are quite comparable to that of Russell Wilson, another
dual-threat quarterback with lackluster receivers on a conservative
rushing offense. In 2014, the two were almost identical in passing
attempts, completions, passing yardage, rushing attempts and total
touchdowns, with Wilson getting the slight edge. Wilson is currently
being selected almost two rounds ahead of Newton in 12-team formats,
making the Panthers quarterback a better value. Anyone drafting
Newton should also carry the insurance of a quality backup in
case of injury. The Panthers would probably become more conservative
if forced to rely on their backup quarterback. Nevertheless, the
team resigned Derek Anderson to return as Newton’s backup. He
completed 67 percent of his passes over five games last season
and is capable of keeping the offense afloat if called upon again
in 2015.
If you have played fantasy football at any point in the past
six years, you have probably shaken your head at least once when
it comes to the Carolina backfield. Arguably one of the longest-tenured
running back committees came to an end when DeAngelo Williams
was released by the Panthers this offseason. Finally free of those
rusty RBBC shackles, it seems logical to assume Jonathan Stewart
would be one of the more prized running backs to own heading into
2015. Unfortunately, injuries have a way of scaring logic away.
The situation is ideal with Carolina playing in a conservative
offense that features a heavy ground game. Stewart’s competition
for carries also appears to be ideal, with the quarterback more
likely to be the team’s second-leading rusher than anyone else
on the running back depth chart. The schedule isn’t a nightmare
despite a Week Six road trip to Seattle. So what gives? The limited
upside of Stewart’s touchdown ability is certainly real, with
Carolina having goal-line weapons such as Newton, Kelvin Benjamin
and Mike Tolbert. With vultures circling, there is a possibility
Stewart loses six or more touchdowns. The injury risk is real
as well. The former first-round draft pick has not been able to
play a full slate of games for three years running. However, his
yards per carry has always been solid and suggests a big year
could be had if he simply stays on the field. This sounds a little
similar to Arian Foster’s fantasy outlook heading into the 2014
season. Stewart doesn’t have the same type of ceiling as Foster
but he does have a real shot to eclipse 200 carries for the first
time since Newton took over. How many running backs are projected
to see 15 carries a game after round three?
Every runner behind Stewart on the depth chart appears to have
some limitations, making a committee approach extremely likely
should Stewart get bitten by the injury bug this season. The most
experienced man to lead the backup duties is Mike Tolbert. Coming
off knee and leg injuries, Tolbert needs to regain confidence
during training camp and reassert himself as a reliable option
in a rushing attack that will need to replace Williams’
leadership role and carries. The Coastal Carolina alum has mostly
been used as a goal-line runner since joining the team three years
ago and he should slide back into that role again for 2015 if
he is able to put his lower-body injuries behind him. Tolbert’s
best-case scenario would see him given eight to 10 carries a game
while serving as the primary option inside the 10-yard line, netting
a half dozen scores.
The team drafted Cameron Artis-Payne out of Auburn late in this
year’s draft as part of its effort to get younger at the position.
He is viewed as a project but might be the closest thing to a
true backup running back on the roster. Jordan Todman was brought
in to improve the depth of the team. He’ll probably push Darrin
Reaves or Fozzy Whittaker off the roster but isn’t likely to be
anything more than insurance in case Tolbert isn’t healthy to
open the year, while giving Artis-Payne more time to develop.
The depth chart will need to shake out during training camp, and
while none of the team’s reserve options are brimming with fantasy
appeal, someone might end up having a small run of fantasy value
if Stewart goes down.
The Panthers lacked talent at the receiver position a year ago,
and although rookie wideout Kelvin Benjamin posted a strong rookie
season, the team added youth and size to its roster for 2015.
Benjamin, the team’s top draft choice from a year ago, is
a huge receiver who uses his body well to win battles for the
ball. His nine touchdowns will probably be the norm for him moving
forward, but he will need to put the hamstring woes he suffered
during OTAs in the rear view mirror. He arrived at camp claiming
to be 100 percent but it bears watching as the preseason unfolds.
Even though he is atop the depth chart, the team may not be as
inclined to feed Benjamin the ball as much, following a dismal
50 percent catch rate. This also makes Benjamin a riskier week-to-week
option than other fantasy receivers in his tier. Without a dynamic
passing attack to help offset any slides in his reception or yardage
totals, Benjamin may see a small decline in his fantasy production
for 2015.
On the heels of Benjamin’s success, the Panthers added another
tall receiver for Newton to help in the passing game. At six-foot
four-inches and 232 pounds, Devin Funchess could give the Panthers
their own version of Tampa’s twin towers. His role in the offense
remains to be seen but early reports suggest the Panthers will
be creative when finding ways to get their new rookie on the field.
Fantasy owners shouldn’t get overly excited too quickly. This
is the Panthers and they project to finish amongst the bottom
quarter of the league in passing again for 2015. With Greg Olsen
and Benjamin set to see the majority of targets, Funchess will
be one of a few players left fighting for scraps. However, he
does have the upside to move into a more prominent role if an
opportunity arises. In deeper formats, he should be given a late
look as a speculative option. Those in shallow leagues can take
a wait-and-see approach.
Jerricho Cotchery has had a few productive fantasy seasons but
2015 won’t be one of them. In his first season with the Panthers
in 2014, he only managed to garner 78 targets. Considering the
additions the team has made at the position, it is pretty clear
the Panthers are just using Cotchery as a stop gap until others
emerge. Clouding his fantasy future more is the uncertainty of
whether he will win a starting job out of training camp and keep
it throughout the season. It’s tough to see him carve out a bigger
role in his second season in Carolina, but stranger things have
happened (like snatching 10 touchdowns in 2013). Philly Brown,
a free agent rookie when he signed a year ago, was surprisingly
helpful when he got into the lineup, averaging 14.1 yards per
catch. As one of the team’s only deep threats, he could see success
in three-receiver formations and the play-action passing game.
Brown will battle free agent signees Jarrett Boykin and Ted Ginn
for depth at the position. Both castoffs would need more opportunity
before becoming fantasy relevant this year.
Greg Olsen became the surest pair of hands in Carolina following
the departure of Steve Smith. As a result, Olsen has seen his
targets ascend over 100 for three consecutive seasons. The increased
reliability helped Olsen post his most productive fantasy season
to date in his eighth year as a pro. The team inked him to a new
deal prior to training camp, and the plan should remain unchanged
moving forward. Olsen’s upside is capped because he doesn’t
provide much downfield game and his team has plenty of options
in the red zone. However, the volume of passes thrown his way
allows him to rack up plenty of receptions and yardage, making
him one of the more consistent tight ends in the league. His totals
from 2014 are far closer to his ceiling, but he isn’t likely
to regress too much. There are a lot of uncertainties at the top
of the positional fantasy rankings, with several tight ends moving
to new situations. As a result, fantasy owners are putting more
value into Olsen’s more projectable 2015 forecast. As a
top-three tight end option in PPR leagues, Olsen’s value
drops to that of an average starter in touchdown leagues, so let
your league settings set Olsen’s value on draft day. Backup
Ed Dickson hasn’t been able to recapture the fantasy spotlight
since 2011, when he emerged as the starter in Baltimore. Even
if his role is expanded at some point during the season, odds
are there would be better fantasy options available on the waiver
wire.