Rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice has certainly been the breakout
pass-catcher in this Kansas City offense this season. Unfortunately,
he took a bit of a step back in the Divisional Round as the Chiefs
were less pass-heavy than normal, throwing just 23 passes during
their close victory over the Bills. Rice was targeted just four
times but still managed a 17 percent target share given the low
volume of the offense overall, so there’s still plenty of
optimism that he can get back to being the team’s top receiver
here in the AFC Championship game. Prior to this past week, Rice
had been on a streak of having been targeted at least nine times
in six out of his previous seven games, and he had managed to
produce a touchdown and/or 100 yards receiving in five of those
seven games.
The Ravens defense has been excellent across the board all season
long, so this is not a particularly great matchup, but Rice has
established himself as the top wide receiver in this offense and
he should push for 10 targets in this game, making him a solid
floor play while also providing some upside to be the WR1 overall
for the week.
Much like teammate Rashee Rice, the case for Isiah Pacheco to
be in your lineup this week really comes down to the potential
volume that he’ll see in this game. Christian McCaffrey is, of
course, the RB1 for the week and it could easily be argued that
Jahmyr Gibbs and possibly even David Montgomery should be ahead
of Pacheco, but Pacheco does provide an interesting pivot option
as the clear RB1 in the Kansas City offense. Pacheco has quietly
been on a red-hot run down the stretch, having scored seven total
touchdowns over his past six games, and he’s touched the ball
at least 15 times in every one of those contests.
A matchup against the Ravens is certainly not one that fantasy
managers should be salivating over, but it’s important to note
that while Baltimore finished the regular season as one of the
better run defenses overall, they struggled a bit against opposing
backs down the stretch. Najee Harris, Devon Achane, Christian
McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, and Jerome Ford all eclipsed 100 rushing
yards against this defense over their final eight regular season
games. With the Chiefs’ passing game not clicking as well as it
has been in previous years, look for them to continue to lean
on their running game and Pacheco in particular.
“Fade Patrick Mahomes” has almost never been the
correct decision and it feels wrong putting him here, but the
reality is that Patrick Mahomes simply has not been playing like
the fantasy monster that we’ve become accustomed to throughout
his career. Mahomes managed to be relatively efficient against
the Bills this past week, completing 17 of his 23 pass attempts,
but he finished with just 215 yards and two touchdowns and was
outside the top-half of QB scorers for the week.
Mahomes has now failed to reach 300 passing yards in 10 of his
past 11 games and he hasn’t thrown three touchdowns in any game
over that stretch. Without elite rushing numbers, Mahomes has
really become a low-end “reliable but not great” QB1. Lamar Jackson’s
rushing upside and the overall efficiency of both the Detroit
and San Francisco offenses, combined with a tough matchup against
an elite Baltimore defense, means that there’s a case to be made
for Mahomes being the bottom-ranked QB in the Conference Championship
round.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
First-round rookie Zay Flowers didn’t have the huge breakout
season of a player like Puka Nacua or some of the other recent
first-round rookie wide receivers, but he still exceeded most
expectations by leading the Ravens in receptions and yards by
a wide margin in both categories. What’s been interesting
is that while Flowers got off to a bit of a slow start, he’s
really kicked into gear down the stretch. He scored four touchdowns
over his final five regular season games and also got his first
career 100-yard game in his final regular season game against
the Dolphins. He’s clearly established himself as the team’s
top pass-catching weapon, which would normally make a player a
strong “Favorite” in this article, but the Ravens
continue to be a very balanced offense which, combined with some
blowout victories, has led to some inconsistent target totals
for the rookie. The Ravens have won their past two games by a
total of 90 to 29 and while Flowers has been able to produce 147
yards and a touchdown over those two games, he’s also seen
just eight targets as the Ravens have really not needed to lean
heavily on their passing game.
A blowout victory shouldn’t be much of a worry this week
as the Ravens have the tough task of facing a Kansas City defense
that may lack star power but has been absolutely locking down
opposing offenses. The Chiefs’ secondary has played way
over expectation, making Flowers a risky, albeit viable option
in the Conference Championship round.
Unsustainable touchdown efficiency is rarely something that we
want to be chasing, but Lamar Jackson’s history of targeting
the tight end position in the red zone has instilled confidence
in fantasy managers who are taking a chance on Isaiah Likely this
week. Likely has caught just 19 passes over his past six games,
but he’s somehow managed to score six touchdowns over that
stretch, including one this past week in the Ravens’ dominant
playoff victory over the Texans. Likely has really exploded in
productivity as of late, but with Mark Andrews being reactivated,
things are murky. We could very well see Andrews immediately supplant
Likely and reassume his role as the team’s primary red zone
target, which should be even more important this week against
a Kansas City defense that has seen some excellent play out of
their secondary and could end up funneling targets to the middle
of the field where these tight ends primarily play. Nevertheless,
they're both options this week in what could end up being a high-scoring
AFC Championship game.
The Baltimore rushing attack remains one of the best in the league
in large part due to the mobility of quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Despite the overall numbers looking great, the truth is that there
is a lot of risk - and not much upside - in banking on the running
backs in Baltimore. The best of the bunch this season has certainly
been Gus Edwards who managed to score 13 touchdowns of the season,
but he never exceeded 80 rushing yards in a game and is essentially
a complete non-factor in the passing game. Meanwhile, the team
has also been mixing in Justice Hill as their primary passing
down back, but his fantasy production has been minimal as well.
To make matters worse, the Ravens had been working in veteran
Melvin Gordon until recently when Dalvin Cook became available
so they swapped out Gordon for Cook during this playoff run. This
committee approach means that the only back on the team who really
has any chance of producing viable fantasy numbers in this game
is Edwards, and even that would be minimal unless he gets into
the end zone multiple times. With as many quality backs that are
on the board this week, the Ravens backfield is just one to avoid.
The 49ers run defense is elite, surrendering the second fewest
points per game to the position. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery
could face a relatively tough day, especially if the favored 49ers
take control of the game early. Yet, in a game where the Lions
are likely to have their share of offense too, Gibbs is still
a solid bet out of the backfield, largely due to his involvement
in the passing game.
The Niners one flaw against opposing running backs was that they
surrendered 90 receptions to the position (5th most). Gibbs had
52 receptions during the regular season, as well as 8 receptions
in two post-season games, and is likely to remain involved in
the offense, whether or not the Lions fall behind. Don’t
overpay, if you are in a DFS format, but think of him as you would
a high end RB2 this week.
Montgomery had an outstanding season behind an elite Lions offensive
line, finishing tied for 5th in fantasy points per game and raking
in 13 touchdowns in 14 regular season games. He punched another
touchdown against the Rams in the Wild Card round, but had a very
quiet day against the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round (47 total
yards, 3 receptions, no touchdowns). Montgomery’s 3 receptions
matched a season high, and his role with Detroit has mostly been
focused through the ground, not through the air.
In a game where the Lions may be in a negative game script, there’s
a real risk that Montgomery could have another quiet day. The
Niners stout run defense doesn’t help his prospects, either.
Montgomery is still in the flex conversation, but he may not be
a particularly strong selection due to the direction this matchup
is pointing.
Jared Goff has tossed at least 250 yards passing and a touchdown
in the last six games, with three multi-touchdown games and just
2 interceptions total (both versus Dallas Week 17). During that
time Goff’s completion percentage has been at least 70%
in all but one game, so Goff and the Lions passing attack has
been notably efficient over the last month and a half.
But four of those games were at home and he didn’t break
15 fantasy points in the two road matchups. For the entire year,
Goff broke 15 fantasy points just three times on the road (versus
seven times at home), and two of the three times he broke 15 points
on the road came in a dome. Facing a difficult 49ers defense outdoors
on the road does not bode well for Goff’s chances at a meaningful
fantasy day. Goff is an unexceptional QB2 in a matchup against
a 49ers defense that created more interceptions (22) than it allowed
passing touchdowns (20).
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Brock Purdy threw a career high 39 attempts this past week against
the Packers, and it was hardly a banner day (252 yards passing,
1 TD and 14 rushing yards). Still, a late drive put the Niners
in the Championship Game against a very beatable Lions defense
(3rd most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks). Even sans Deebo
Samuel (see “On the Fence” below), Purdy should see
plenty of wide-open receivers in what could be a high scoring
game, generating a big ceiling for Brock. Think of him as an upper
tier QB1 for the NFC Championship Game.
Wide receivers roasted the Lions for 23 touchdowns this season,
and a gaudy 13.7 yards per reception. Brandon Aiyuk had 17.9 yards
per reception this season, with 7 touchdowns. With the possibility
of Deebo Samuel being out or limited, Aiyuk could see a bump to
his 6.6 targets per game. Aiyuk is absolutely a WR1 for this matchup.
Meanwhile, you may have noticed Christian McCaffrey’s name
here. You might be asking why? He’s an obvious ‘no
brainer’, is he not? Yes and no. If you are playing in non-salary
cap formats, McCaffrey is an obvious choice to start. But if you
are playing Daily Fantasy, for example, you may end up overpaying
for McCaffrey due to the fact that he’ll be facing the Lions
one big defensive strength: run defense.
The Lions barely gave up 1000 yards to running backs combined
this season (1028 yards). No team was more stifling against ground
games than Detroit, not even San Francisco. They were also just
one of seven teams to give up single-digit touchdowns to running
backs. Perhaps most distressing to McCaffrey’s price this
week, they gave up the second least receptions (59) and zero receiving
touchdowns to backs.
McCaffrey should still be thought of as a RB1, due to his overall
talents and the elite nature of the 49ers offense, but heavily
consider the cost and don’t overpay for what could be a relatively
subdued performance.
Update: Deebo
Samuel is off the injury report and will play.
Samuel left last week’s game against the Packers, re-injuring
his shoulder, and his status for the NFC Championship Game in
question. The 49ers are giving off an air of confidence that he
will play, and after failing to practice Wednesday, he did get
listed as a limited participant on Thursday.
Whether this is legitimate progress or a smoke screen is hard
to say, and those fantasy managers considering Samuel might only
want to do so if they are able to make a last-minute decision.
He’s a very high risk, but also high reward, flex candidate
if he is active this Sunday.
