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Rinku Dhawan
Staff Writer
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Touchdown Efficiency
 8/2/08

Fantasy football has become very complex. The number of styles, drafts, strategies, scoring systems, and leagues has become exponential. We filter a lot of statistics to compile our rankings. Among the varying numbers we digest are yardage, receptions, completions, completion percentages, and tackles. The highest regarded statistic is still touchdowns. Who is scoring touchdowns is still the ultimate factor in ranking players. We even have leagues and scoring systems solely based on that number. But who really is scoring touchdowns? Who are the players that get to the end zone more often than others? Who are the players you can count on to get 6 points? This is an attempt to discover those players, and to define some terms to categorize those players. It is the touchdowns that keep fans in the stands, and player paychecks at a premium level. To the fantasy football player, touchdowns command the respect for players who pile them up, and propel our teams to victory.

Methodology

First, we will establish a nomenclature for the analysis. The sample size was determined as 21 running backs and 21 receivers of recent times with established track records as ‘top’ or ‘stud’ players, and/or with established recent longevity. [The receiver list was comprised of 19 wide receivers, with 2 tight ends—Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez—also included. In addition, two notable first year players—Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) — were excluded due to limited number of games played.] Total games (G) and touchdowns (TD) were used, as well as touchdown games (TD G), defined as the number of games in which a player scores a touchdown. These 3 components were used to compute 2 new factors: touchdowns per game (TD/G), and our main term, touchdown efficiency, labeled as touchdown game percentage (TD G %), the percentage of total games in which a player scores touchdowns.

Data

 Table 1
  Player TD TD G G TD G % TD/G
1 LaDainian Tomlinson 129 77 111 69% 1.16
2 Larry Johnson 56 31 56 55% 1.00
3 Shaun Alexander 112 71 119 60% 0.94
4 Marion Barber 28 19 32 59% 0.88
5 Maurice Jones-Drew 26 21 31 68% 0.84
6 Clinton Portis 67 43 84 51% 0.80
7 Joseph Addai 23 15 30 50% 0.77
8 Edgerrin James 88 62 128 48% 0.69
9 Steven Jackson 36 28 57 49% 0.63
10 Rudi Johnson 49 37 79 47% 0.62
11 Brian Westbrook 50 34 85 40% 0.59
12 Deuce McAllister 48 32 84 38% 0.57
13 Jamal Lewis 58 43 106 41% 0.55
14 Fred Taylor 69 54 127 43% 0.54
15 Reggie Bush 15 10 28 36% 0.54
16 Willis McGahee 32 24 61 39% 0.52
17 Brandon Jacobs 22 18 42 43% 0.52
18 Willie Parker 23 17 46 37% 0.50
19 Laurence Maroney 13 11 27 41% 0.48
20 Ronnie Brown 15 12 35 34% 0.43
21 Frank Gore 18 13 45 29% 0.40
977 672 1413 47% 0.66
10% 0.20

Table 1 outlines running backs, sorted by TD/G. We can see that the average of these players is about 2/3 TD per game (.66). Players highlighted in green represent production above average; blue represents more than 1 deviation above average; and red shows ‘king Tomlinson’ more than 2 deviations above average.

    What do we see here?

  • Tomlinson is the king, averaging more than a TD per game over his career, and on pace to challenge the TD legends of the game (we will get to that later).

  • Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander are not far behind, using a powerful stretch of seasons to accrue huge scoring counts. Clinton Portis also used two big seasons in Denver to rank highly overall.

  • 3 young players with considerably smaller samples of games are in the mix at the top: Marion Barber, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Joseph Addai. It will be interesting to see their progress as they accumulate more career games.
 Table 2
  Player TD TD G G TD G % TD/G
1 Randy Moss 125 88 154 57% 0.81
2 Terrell Owens 131 95 173 55% 0.76
3 Marvin Harrison 123 85 175 49% 0.70
4 Antonio Gates 41 31 62 50% 0.66
5 Marques Colston 19 14 30 47% 0.63
6 Braylon Edwards 25 19 42 45% 0.60
7 Larry Fitzgerald 34 29 60 48% 0.57
8 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 32 28 60 47% 0.53
9 Roy Williams 28 21 55 38% 0.51
10 Torry Holt 71 60 142 42% 0.50
11 Chad Johnson 49 36 108 33% 0.45
12 Reggie Wayne 47 39 104 38% 0.45
13 Plaxico Burress 51 42 118 36% 0.43
14 Chris Chambers 47 38 110 35% 0.43
15 Anquan Boldin 29 24 68 35% 0.43
16 Javon Walker 30 24 72 33% 0.42
17 Steve Smith (CAR) 37 31 92 34% 0.40
18 Tony Gonzalez 66 50 174 29% 0.38
19 Andre Johnson 25 22 70 31% 0.36
20 Donald Driver 38 34 128 27% 0.30
21 Derrick Mason 47 40 170 24% 0.28
1095 850 2167 40% 0.50
9% 0.15

Table 2 shows the receivers, with the same color coding ranges. The average of this group is 1/2 TD per game (.50), somewhat leaning towards the fantasy slogan “running backs score relatively more than receivers do”. What do we see here?
  • The “ultra-3” (Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Marvin Harrison) dominates the position in scoring.

  • Antonio Gates is knocking at their door, but with a sample of games ~1/3 of those players.

  • Derrick Mason and Donald Driver are expected to be lower on the listing, as their games have been predicated more on high reception counts than scoring over their respective careers.

  • Hyped players such as Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress, Chad Johnson, and Anquan Boldin fall below the average in per game scoring.
 Table 3
  Player TD TD G G TD G % TD/G
1 LaDainian Tomlinson 129 77 111 69% 1.16
2 Maurice Jones-Drew 26 21 31 68% 0.84
3 Shaun Alexander 112 71 119 60% 0.94
4 Marion Barber 28 19 32 59% 0.88
5 Larry Johnson 56 31 56 55% 1.00
6 Clinton Portis 67 43 84 51% 0.80
7 Joseph Addai 23 15 30 50% 0.77
8 Steven Jackson 36 28 57 49% 0.63
9 Edgerrin James 88 62 128 48% 0.69
10 Rudi Johnson 49 37 79 47% 0.62
11 Brandon Jacobs 22 18 42 43% 0.52
12 Fred Taylor 69 54 127 43% 0.54
13 Laurence Maroney 13 11 27 41% 0.48
14 Jamal Lewis 58 43 106 41% 0.55
15 Brian Westbrook 50 34 85 40% 0.59
16 Willis McGahee 32 24 61 39% 0.52
17 Deuce McAllister 48 32 84 38% 0.57
18 Willie Parker 23 17 46 37% 0.50
19 Reggie Bush 15 10 28 36% 0.54
20 Ronnie Brown 15 12 35 34% 0.43
21 Frank Gore 18 13 45 29% 0.40
977 672 1413 47% 0.66
11% 0.20

Table 4
Player TD TD G G TD G % TD/G
1 Randy Moss 125 88 154 57% 0.81
2 Terrell Owens 131 95 173 55% 0.76
3 Antonio Gates 41 31 62 50% 0.66
4 Marvin Harrison 123 85 175 49% 0.70
5 Larry Fitzgerald 34 29 60 48% 0.57
6 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 32 28 60 47% 0.53
7 Marques Colston 19 14 30 47% 0.63
8 Braylon Edwards 25 19 42 45% 0.60
9 Torry Holt 71 60 142 42% 0.50
10 Roy Williams 28 21 55 38% 0.51
11 Reggie Wayne 47 39 104 38% 0.45
12 Plaxico Burress 51 42 118 36% 0.43
13 Anquan Boldin 29 24 68 35% 0.43
14 Chris Chambers 47 38 110 35% 0.43
15 Steve Smith (CAR) 37 31 92 34% 0.40
16 Chad Johnson 49 36 108 33% 0.45
17 Javon Walker 30 24 72 33% 0.42
18 Andre Johnson 25 22 70 31% 0.36
19 Tony Gonzalez 66 50 174 29% 0.38
20 Donald Driver 38 34 128 27% 0.30
21 Derrick Mason 47 40 170 24% 0.28
1095 850 2167 40% 0.50
9% 0.15

Tables 3 and 4 show the running backs and receivers ranked by TD G%. Now we can see the likelihood of a player scoring touchdowns, or their touchdown efficiency. Running backs score ~47% of their games, with receivers slightly behind at a rate ~40%.

Other Observations:

  • Perennial 1st round drafted running backs like Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, Joseph Addai, Steven Jackson, and Rudi Johnson merit their selections, as they produce above the average within the first deviation. Notice how stalwart Edgerrin James continues to place in the top half of both lists, a testament to his rugged yet productive career.

  • Young stars Maurice Jones-Drew and Marion Barber again are near the top with ‘king Tomlinson’, Shaun Alexander, and Larry Johnson. In a short amount of time, they have maximized their game opportunities and scored a lot of touchdowns. They remain with top-shelf rush offenses.

  • Reggie Bush, Willis McGahee, and Willie Parker score well below the average, accounting for a TD in only ~1/3 of their games.

  • Highly ranked and rated Brian Westbrook has flimsy touchdown efficiency; he clearly merits his rankings based on yardage and receptions.

  • Receivers like Reggie Wayne, Roy Williams, and Torry Holt hover near the position average of ~40% efficiency.

  • Highly ranked and drafted players like Steve Smith and Chad Johnson fall well below the position average, and do not return ‘bang-for-the-buck’. Both players hover at the 33% efficiency level, or only ~1/3 of their games are they reaching the end zone. Specifically for Johnson, he has scored in only 8 of his past 32 games (25%).

  • Only Randy Moss and Terrell Owens can compete with the top5 running backs at touchdown efficiency greater than 55% of games played.
Results and Conclusions

The receivers in the sampled data scored ~.50 TD per game, which was 30% less than the running backs, at ~.66TD per game. Their touchdown efficiencies were closer, with running backs averaging ~47%, and the sampled receivers ~40% of their games, an only 17% difference. Below are the combined data of running backs and receivers, so that we may get a broader picture of these skill players and their touchdown efficiency.

 RBs/WRs Combined
  Player TD TD G G TD G % TD/G
1 LaDainian Tomlinson 129 77 111 69% 1.16
2 Larry Johnson 56 31 56 55% 1.00
3 Shaun Alexander 112 71 119 60% 0.94
4 Marion Barber 28 19 32 59% 0.88
5 Maurice Jones-Drew 26 21 31 68% 0.84
6 Randy Moss 125 88 154 57% 0.81
7 Clinton Portis 67 43 84 51% 0.80
8 Joseph Addai 23 15 30 50% 0.77
9 Terrell Owens 131 95 173 55% 0.76
10 Marvin Harrison 123 85 175 49% 0.70
11 Edgerrin James 88 62 128 48% 0.69
12 Antonio Gates 41 31 62 50% 0.66
13 Marques Colston 19 14 30 47% 0.63
14 Steven Jackson 36 28 57 49% 0.63
15 Rudi Johnson 49 37 79 47% 0.62
16 Braylon Edwards 25 19 42 45% 0.60
17 Brian Westbrook 50 34 85 40% 0.59
18 Deuce McAllister 48 32 84 38% 0.57
19 Larry Fitzgerald 34 29 60 48% 0.57
20 Jamal Lewis 58 43 106 41% 0.55
21 Fred Taylor 69 54 127 43% 0.54
22 Reggie Bush 15 10 28 36% 0.54
23 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 32 28 60 47% 0.53
24 Willis McGahee 32 24 61 39% 0.52
25 Brandon Jacobs 22 18 42 43% 0.52
26 Roy Williams 28 21 55 38% 0.51
27 Torry Holt 71 60 142 42% 0.50
28 Willie Parker 23 17 46 37% 0.50
29 Laurence Maroney 13 11 27 41% 0.48
30 Chad Johnson 49 36 108 33% 0.45
31 Reggie Wayne 47 39 104 38% 0.45
32 Plaxico Burress 51 42 118 36% 0.43
33 Ronnie Brown 15 12 35 34% 0.43
34 Chris Chambers 47 38 110 35% 0.43
35 Anquan Boldin 29 24 68 35% 0.43
36 Javon Walker 30 24 72 33% 0.42
37 Steve Smith (CAR) 37 31 92 34% 0.40
38 Frank Gore 18 13 45 29% 0.40
39 Tony Gonzalez 66 50 174 29% 0.38
40 Andre Johnson 25 22 70 31% 0.36
41 Donald Driver 38 34 128 27% 0.30
42 Derrick Mason 47 40 170 24% 0.28
0.58
0.19

 RBs/WRs Combined
  Player TD TD G G TD G % TD/G
1 LaDainian Tomlinson 129 77 111 69% 1.16
2 Maurice Jones-Drew 26 21 31 68% 0.84
3 Shaun Alexander 112 71 119 60% 0.94
4 Marion Barber 28 19 32 59% 0.88
5 Randy Moss 125 88 154 57% 0.81
6 Larry Johnson 56 31 56 55% 1.00
7 Terrell Owens 131 95 173 55% 0.76
8 Clinton Portis 67 43 84 51% 0.80
9 Joseph Addai 23 15 30 50% 0.77
10 Antonio Gates 41 31 62 50% 0.66
11 Steven Jackson 36 28 57 49% 0.63
12 Marvin Harrison 123 85 175 49% 0.70
13 Edgerrin James 88 62 128 48% 0.69
14 Larry Fitzgerald 34 29 60 48% 0.57
15 Rudi Johnson 49 37 79 47% 0.62
16 Marques Colston 19 14 30 47% 0.63
17 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 32 28 60 47% 0.53
18 Braylon Edwards 25 19 42 45% 0.60
19 Brandon Jacobs 22 18 42 43% 0.52
20 Fred Taylor 69 54 127 43% 0.54