2002 Results

Coach: Tom Coughlin Record: (6-10) Passing Offense: 28th, 172.6 yds/gm, 18 TDs Rushing Offense: 10th, 130.6 yds/gm, 19 TDs Scoring Offense: 21st, 20.5 pts/gm Team Leaders Passing Att Comp Yds TDs INTs Rating Mark Brunell 416 245 2788 17 7 85.7 David Garrard 46 23 231 1 2 53.8               Rushing Att Yds Avg TDs Long   Fred Taylor 287 1314 4.6 8 63   Stacey Mack 98 436 4.4 9 23   Mark Brunell 43 207 4.8 0 27   David Garrard 25 139 5.6 2 41                 Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs Long   Jimmy Smith 80 1027 12.8 7 47   Bobby Shaw 44 525 11.9 1 48   Kyle Brady 43 461 10.7 4 42   Fred Taylor 49 408 8.3 0 72   Pete Mitchell 25 246 9.8 2 45   Patrick Johnson 9 187 20.8 2 79   Stacey Mack 11 79 7.2 0 12

2003 Results

Coach: Jack Del Rio Record: (5-11) Passing Offense: 15th, 205.3 yds/gm, 17 TDs Rushing Offense: 8th, 129.6 yds/gm, 13 TDs Scoring Offense: 25th, 17.3 pts/gm Team Leaders Passing Att Comp Yds TDs INTs Rating Byron Leftwich 418 239 2819 14 16 73.0 Mark Brunell 82 54 484 2 0 89.7               Rushing Att Yds Avg TDs Long   Fred Taylor 345 1572 4.6 6 62   LaBrandon Toefield 53 212 4 2 30   Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala 35 144 4.1 1 18   Byron Leftwich 25 108 4.3 2 18                 Receiving Rec Yds Avg TDs Long   Jimmy Smith 54 805 14.9 4 67   Troy Edwards 35 487 13.9 3 84   Fred Taylor 48 370 7.7 1 60   Kyle Brady 29 281 9.7 1 26   Kevin Johnson 17 253 14.9 1 28   Marc Edwards 31 226 7.3 0 32   Matthew Hatchette 15 203 13.5 2 45

2004 Fantasy Outlook
Coaches: Jack Del Rio (HC), Bill Musgrave (OC), Mike Smith (DC)
Passing SOS: 10th (1 = Easy, 32 = Difficult)
Rushing SOS: 7th (1 = Easy, 32 = Difficult)

I remember standing in Hilton Sportsbook a couple days before the '03 season was to begin, glancing over the prop bets for the upcoming NFL season. A couple jumped off the page at me; one was the Over/Under on the Jags which was set at seven. "Seven for Jacksonville," I muttered to my buddy. That was easy money in mind. There was no way Jacksonville was going to win more than 7 games last year considering they had a new coach, their best WR was suspended 4 games, and at the first sign of trouble Mark Brunell would be benched so the learning process for then rookie QB Byron Leftwich could begin. Although I didn't make the bet (I decided to plunk it down on a Chiefs Superbowl victory with much better odds) Jacksonville's 2003 season went according to plan... a terrible 1-7 start led to a 5-11 finish.

This year, the expectations have been raised. The Jags had much success running the ball (8th overall) and stopping the run (2nd overall) in 2003 and are now looking to take the next step forward and possible contend for a playoff spot. Fred Taylor enjoyed an injury-free (again) and Jimmy Smith is still a #1 wideout in this league but a lot of Jacksonville's success will be determined by the play of 2nd-year QB Byron Leftwich. The receiving corps behind Smith is full of question marks even with the addition of Rookie Reggie Williams and counting on Fred Taylor to stay healthy for three years in a row may be a reach. This team has the potential to produce 3 great fantasy prospects at the offensive skill positions, or it could quickly turn into a fantasy wasteland.

Quarterbacks: Byron Leftwich, David Garrard, Doug Johnson, Quinn Gray
Call 2003 a learning experience for Leftwich. Its no surprise that he finished with more INTs (16) than TDs (14) and yes he did struggle at times (over-throwing his receivers seemed to be an issue), but you can see why the Jags think so highly of him. He's got a gun for an arm and appears to be a leader on the field, a trait vital to being a great QB in the NFL. While some are so high on Leftwich they can't see straight (Hi Matt) I think a slight improvement in fantasy production should be expected. Notice I said, "slight." Del Rio wants to build this team on the ground and while his run-heavy offense last season may have been an attempt to protect his rookie QB, its a philosophy that works, and works well especially with a talented back like Fred Taylor. Leftwich is still a young QB in this league and with only one proven receiver and a defensive-minded coach, his fantasy stardom may have to wait. Grab him as your #2 QB for sure but you're rolling the dice if you plan on him being your starter.

Backup QB David Garrard has been diagnosed with Crohn's disease and as a result had surgery on May 27 in which a foot of his lower intestines was removed. Garrard insists he'll be ready for camp but that remains to be seen. If Garrard can't make it through training camp its likely the team will turn to Doug Johnson to fill the void.

Projected Stats
Byron Leftwich - 3,348 yds, 16 TDs, 14 INTs; 166 rush yds, 2 TDs; 260.0 FF Pts
David Garrard - 111 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT; 3 rush yds, 0 TDs; 9.8 FF Pts

Running Backs: Fred Taylor, Labrandon Toefield, Greg Jones®, David Allen
Fullbacks: Marc Edwards, Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala
Is Taylor starting lose the nickname "Fragile Fred?" Don't look now but Taylor has gone (for the most part) injury free the last two years and put up some nice numbers in the process. He's one of the best backs in the NFL with a combination of speed, power, and quickness. He also finished 2003 on a strong note rushing for over 100-yds in 6 of his last 8 games. His role in this offense makes him a great fantasy option although his lack of TDs (hasn't cracked double figures since 2000) and occasional butterfingers leave him hanging around the 10-12 area among fantasy backs. Taylor finished 2nd on the team in receptions last year, but also led the team in drops and hasn't shown much improvement through mini-camp despite trying a number of remedies including corrective eye surgery. As a result, don't be surprised to see LaBrandon Toefield as Jacksonville's third-down back this season. He performed well in this role during the final month of '03 and may have carved out a niche in this offense.

Rookie Greg Jones and Chris Fuamatu Ma'afala are more suited for short-yardage and goaline duty but could have increased value in a committee role should Taylor miss an extended period of time.

Projected Stats
Fred Taylor - 1,179 yds, 10 TDs; 39 rec, 299 yds, 2 TDs; 219.8 FF Pts
Labrandon Toefield - 426 yds, 3 TDs; 17 rec, 116 yds, 0 TDs; 72.2 FF Pts
Greg Jones - 339 yds, 2 TDs; 13 rec, 75 yds, 0 TDs; 53.4 FF Pts
Marc Edwards - 26 yds, 0 TDs; 32 rec, 245 yds, 1 TD; 33.1 FF Pts
Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala - 110 yds, 1 TD; 0 rec, 0 yds, 0 TDs; 17.0 FF Pts

Wide Receivers: Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams®, Troy Edwards, Cortez Hankton, Matthew Hatchette, Ernest Wilford®, Jimmy Redmond
I know its only mini-camp but Jimmy Smith can't be covered. Repeated bombs from Leftwich to Smith have been converted leaving the Jacksonville cornerbacks scratching their heads. Smith has dropped a few pounds causing Del Rio to comment... "Jimmy and Byron are on the same page, and Jimmy is really, really playing some good football," ... "He's faster than I've seen him in some time." Good news for sure and hopefully this early success will carry into September. No doubt Smith will be the main focus of the Jags passing game this year with inexperience and unproven veterans behind him.

Speaking of inexperience and unproven veterans, the Jaguars drafted WR Reggie Williams in the first round and is expected to battle unproven veteran Troy Edwards for a starting position. Edwards is likely better suited for the slot and will likely end up there when Week 1 rolls around. Williams is a big kid and should give Leftwich an option around the goaline. He should also see plenty of single coverage with most defenses keying on Smith in the passing game. This is a nice situation for a rookie WR to put some respectable numbers but don't count on Williams being the '04 version of Anquan Boldin.

Projected Stats
Jimmy Smith JAC - 82 rec, 1,069 yds, 7 TDs; 148.9 FF Pts
Reggie Williams - 41 rec, 564 yds, 3 TDs; 74.4 FF Pts
Troy Edwards - 19 rec, 267 yds, 1 TD; 32.7 FF Pts
Cortez Hankton - 17 rec, 205 yds, 1 TD; 26.5 FF Pts
Matthew Hatchette - 12 rec, 149 yds, 0 TDs; 14.9 FF Pts

Tight Ends: Kyle Brady, Todd Yoder, George Wrighster
As the Jaguars shift to a run-heavy approach the production from the TE position seems to be on the decline. Brady finished 30th among fantasy TEs last season (standard performance scoring system) after finishing 10th among fantasy TEs in 2002. Brady is now doing more blocking than receiving and reaching the 400-yd mark is probably out of the question. Todd Yoder is mainly a blocker that will be used in two-TE sets. George Wrighster is a deep sleeper that could blossom if Del Rio decides to cut loose with the passing game.

Projected Stats
Kyle Brady - 32 rec, 329 yds, 2 TDs; 44.9 FF Pts
Todd Yoder - 10 rec, 100 yds, 0 TDs; 10.0 FF Pts

Jacksonville T.O.D Discussion on the FF Today Board