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A breakout player and league-winner at running back down the stretch in 2019, Raheem Mostert has seen his ADP rise substantially throughout the offseason as the 49ers did not make a major investment at the position and in fact shipped off 2019 committee-mate, Matt Breida, to the Dolphins.
The 49ers finished second in the NFL in run-to-pass ratio and were just one of two (Ravens) teams that actually ran the ball more than they passed in 2019. A number of hugely positive game scripts led to a dramatically run-heavy approach from the 49ers, which has many fantasy analysts believing that this is necessarily a team that will again run the ball at an extremely high rate. That may not be the case, however, as the 49ers may see fewer positive game scripts due to a slight regression on defense and potentially a less efficient passing game due to the injury to Deebo Samuel. A drop in run-to-pass ratio would mean fewer attempts, particularly late-game attempts, for the running game as a whole, which would subsequently negatively affect Mostert. That's especially important in a backfield that is likely to feature up to three or even four different running backs per game.
Mostert led the team in snaps at running back just once in the team's first 12 games, but finished as the snap leader in each of their final seven games, including the playoffs. It's difficult to assume that Jerick McKinnon will be healthy considering his injury history, but McKinnon is currently ready to get back to football work and should also see some snaps. Keep in mind that McKinnon was projected to be the 49ers' top running back heading into the 2018 season prior to suffering back-to-back season-ending injuries in the pre-season in both 2018 and 2019.
The other problem with Mostert is his lack of usage in the passing game. We've seen players make big improvements as a receiver out of the backfield in the past, but it's not all that common and it's difficult to believe that he's going to suddenly become a serious contributor in that category. Mostert was only targeted 22 times for 14 receptions in the 2019 regular season and he was targeted just three total times in the 49ers' three playoff games.
Mostert is going off the board as a low-end RB2 in most leagues so he does have some nice upside given the price, but the chances of him finishing as a truly elite fantasy RB in 2020 are slim.
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