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Regular Season, Updated: 9/7/2023

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 Justin Jefferson, MIN (Bye: 13)
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 202   DOB: 1999-01-16   Age: 25
College: Louisiana State   Draft: 2020 Round 1 (22) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020MIN1688 1,400 7 1 2 0 182.2 11.4
2021MIN17108 1,616 10 6 14 0 223.0 13.1
2022MIN17128 1,809 8 4 24 1 237.3 14.0
2023 (Projected)MIN 109 1,572 9 4 20 0 213.2  

Outlook: After a historic two year start to his career, Jefferson was somehow even better last season. Blasting off to a 128-1809-9 season, Jefferson was simply unrecoverable for stretches of the season, including a dominant three-game stretch from Week 14-16 that likely propelled his fantasy owners to league titles. After the Hall of Fame start to his career, there isn't much fantasy analysis necessary here, as he is the consensus No.1 receiver. But I'd be remiss if I didn't raise an eyebrow after watching Jefferson reduced to a mere moral in the final weeks of the season. 1-15-0 against the Packers, was followed up with a 4-38 dud in Week 18. When it mattered most in the playoffs, the Giants secondary was able to blanket the eventual Offensive Player of the Year, holding him to 47 empty yards on seven receptions. That three-game stretch was by far the worst of his young career, and was enough for the Vikings to upgrade the receiving core to take pressure off of Jefferson. Don't overthink things, just hope you somehow get a shot to draft him.

 Ja'Marr Chase, CIN (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 208   DOB: 2000-03-01   Age: 24
College: Louisiana State   Draft: 2021 Round 1 (5) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2021CIN1781 1,455 13 7 21 0 225.6 13.3
2022CIN1287 1,046 9 5 8 0 159.4 13.3
2023 (Projected)CIN 103 1,388 11 2 17 0 206.5  

Outlook: A consensus top-3 pick at his position in any format on any planet, Chase finished 2022 with an 87-1046-9 line despite missing four games with a hip injury. With an improved line, and elite scheme, and teammate chemistry, Chase should challenge his former college teammate Justin Jefferson for fantasy supremacy. His elite route running, ball skills, and run after the catch ability make him a threat to score from anywhere, and his floor (only three of his 29 career games have resulted in fewer than five standard fantasy points) make him stand out among a growing list of franchise receivers. He's a worthy pick at the top of all fantasy drafts.

 Tyreek Hill, MIA (Bye: 10)
Height: 5’10”   Weight: 185   DOB: 1994-03-01   Age: 30
College: West Alabama   Draft: 2016 Round 5 (28) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020KC1587 1,276 15 13 123 2 241.9 16.1
2021KC17111 1,239 9 9 96 0 187.5 11.0
2022MIA17119 1,710 7 7 32 1 222.2 13.1
2023 (Projected)MIA 108 1,510 8 9 51 0 204.1  

Outlook: There's been a longstanding history of superstar wide receivers struggling when they join a new team, but one player who absolutely did not fall into that trap was the Dolphins' Tyreek Hill. Hill left the friendly Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs offense and it made all the sense in the world that he would have some struggles when playing with a quarterback like Tua Tagovailoa who hadn't shown himself to be much of a deep passer. Hill proved those concerns to be overblown as he set career highs in receptions (119) and targets (170) while shattering his own previous career best with a whopping 1,710 receiving yards. Hill finished as the WR3 on the season, exceeding even the loftiest goals that fantasy managers had hoped for him heading into the year.

Now with an entire season in the McDaniel offense under his belt and a connection locked in with Tua, Hill can focus on the stated goal he set for himself: to become the NFL's first 2,000-yard receiver in a single season. That seems almost silly on the surface, but with defenses seemingly unable to gameplan and account for his explosiveness, it's really not out of the question. Keep in mind that Tyreek was without Tua for a good portion of the season and while Hill still performed well for the most part, it's hard to believe that his fantasy production wouldn't have been even greater if he had his starting QB for the entire season.

Hill is currently being selected near the middle-to-end of the first round in most drafts, which means that the market also believes that the 29-year-old receiver has at least one more elite-level season in him. Fantasy managers would be wise to make him a target at this range in their drafts.

 Davante Adams, LV (Bye: 13)
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 212   DOB: 1992-12-24   Age: 31
College: Fresno State   Draft: 2014 Round 2 (21) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020GB14115 1,374 18 0 0 0 245.4 17.5
2021GB16123 1,553 11 0 0 0 221.3 13.8
2022LV17100 1,516 14 3 -1 0 235.5 13.9
2023 (Projected)LV 97 1,335 10 0 0 0 193.5  

Outlook: Although no one truly doubted Adams could remain an elite talent without Aaron Rodgers, it was still nice to see him prove it a year ago, catching 100 passes for 1,516 yards and 14 touchdowns from the combination of Carr and Jarrett Stidham. It marked the fourth time in the last five years that Adams has reached triple digits in receptions, topped 1,350 yards, and scored double-digit TDs. While others may have surpassed the 30-year-old wideout physically, he remains arguably the best route runner in the business, and his red-zone exploits are elite with 83 touchdowns over the past seven seasons.

Durability is another strong suit. After playing all 17 games in 2022, Adams has now missed two games or fewer in all but two of his nine NFL campaigns, and he's never appeared in less than 12. Partnering with Garoppolo probably represents the low-water mark in terms of talent at the position, not counting games started by backups, but Jimmy G can deliver the ball on time, and the veteran QB been around long enough to know he needs to feed the ball to a player of Adams' caliber. Adams remains a solid WR1, though he should go after names like Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase.

 A.J. Brown, PHI (Bye: 10)
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 226   DOB: 1997-06-30   Age: 26
College: Mississippi   Draft: 2019 Round 2 (19) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020TEN1470 1,075 11 0 0 0 173.5 12.4
2021TEN1363 869 5 2 10 0 117.9 9.1
2022PHI1788 1,496 11 0 0 0 215.6 12.7
2023 (Projected)PHI 82 1,255 9 0 0 0 179.5  

Outlook: The Titans were seemingly unconvinced that A.J. Brown could be a true alpha receiver in the NFL, but he put all doubts to rest in 2022 when he lit up the fantasy scoreboard to the tune of 95 receptions for 1,496 yards and 11 touchdowns. Brown proved that not only is he a big-play threat who can rack up yards, but he's also a reliable red-zone target who can score touchdowns. His new team, the Eagles, committed to getting him the ball, which gave him both a high weekly floor and a high weekly ceiling - a true dream scenario for fantasy managers.

The Eagles' aggressive passing attack coupled with a strong offensive line, a great play-caller in head coach Nick Sirianni, and an MVP-caliber quarterback in Jalen Hurts provide an exceptional situation for Brown and fantasy owners. His raw numbers are elite, but what really sets Brown apart is his consistency. Going back to his 2021 season with the Titans, Brown has now had at least 50 receiving yards in all but three games last season, and he scored a touchdown in nearly half of his games. That type of consistency is rare and makes him a very valuable fantasy asset.

Since coming to Philadelphia, Brown's fantasy value has increased significantly. In fact, his ADP has risen from the middle of the third round heading into 2022 all the way up to the early second round heading into 2023. The Eagles made him the clear number one wide receiver and they've designed the offense to feature him heavily.

The only real concern about Brown is that he's dealt with some minor injuries over the past couple of years, which have occasionally impacted his fantasy production. While he's healthy now, it's something to keep an eye on. Still, he's a strong candidate to finish as a mid-level fantasy WR1 again here in 2023.

 CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 198   DOB: 1999-04-08   Age: 25
College: Oklahoma   Draft: 2020 Round 1 (17) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020DAL1674 935 5 10 82 1 137.7 8.6
2021DAL1679 1,102 6 9 76 0 153.8 9.6
2022DAL17107 1,359 9 10 47 0 194.6 11.4
2023 (Projected)DAL 96 1,255 8 9 59 0 179.4  

Outlook: CeeDee Lamb came into the NFL as one of the more highly-scouted receivers in recent seasons and while he was fine over his first two seasons, the truth is that he had been a bit of a disappointment from a production standpoint. That changed in 2022, however, when the Cowboys moved on from Amari Cooper, allowing Lamb to finally secure his role as the unquestioned top target in the Dallas offense. Lamb saw 156 targets, catching 107 of them for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns - all far exceeding his previous career highs. Lamb did this despite the other wide receivers on the Dallas roster being embarrassingly bad across the board, which led to defenses being able to really focus on him much more than they had in previous seasons.

Dallas addressed this issue at least a bit this offseason by signing veteran free agent Brandin Cooks, an outside pass catcher who should allow Lamb to continue to play primarily out of the slot where he has become one of the league's most productive pass catchers. The Cowboys did also lose Dalton Schultz, who often operated in around the same area of the field as Lamb, which might actually end up benefitting the wide receiver from a fantasy standpoint.

The only real concern for Lamb is that the Cowboys will almost certainly end up running the ball more often than they did in recent seasons. With Kellen Moore gone, Dallas' coaching staff has made it known that they want to run the ball and that will almost certainly lead to fewer total pass attempts for the offense. However, with Schultz gone, there's little reason to think that Lamb won't again see an elite-level target share, which combined with his elite-level talent makes him a strong candidate to finish as a solid fantasy WR1 again this season.

 Stefon Diggs, BUF (Bye: 13)
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 195   DOB: 1993-11-29   Age: 30
College: Maryland   Draft: 2015 Round 5 (10) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020BUF16127 1,535 8 1 1 0 201.6 12.6
2021BUF17103 1,225 10 0 0 0 182.5 10.7
2022BUF16108 1,429 11 1 -3 0 208.6 13.0
2023 (Projected)BUF 97 1,220 9 0 0 0 176.0  

Outlook: Stefon Diggs' bizarre ongoing issues (or non-issues?) with the Bills have been one of the most talked-about situations in the NFL over the past month or so. The star wide receiver has reportedly been frustrated about his role in the Buffalo offense, which seems odd, considering he's developed into one of the league's most productive wide receivers over the past three seasons since arriving in Buffalo. Things seem to have cooled down recently, however, which should give fantasy managers some confidence that the 29-year-old will be returning to continue his dominance with superstar quarterback Josh Allen.

From a skills and situation standpoint, there's really not much to be concerned about for Diggs. The real worry is that he'll be turning 30 years old in November, which is a scary age for wide receivers as we've historically seen a lot of top-level pass-catchers drop off once they hit this milestone. Of course, it's not as though there's just a sudden drop-off and the player becomes unusable, but it's something we'll need to be at least aware of, and potentially be willing to address early in the year if Diggs is starting to not quite look like himself.

Nevertheless, the Bills really didn't do much to address the pass-catching competition in their offense, so it seems likely that Diggs should remain one of the league's most highly-targeted weapons again in 2023. The only real significant addition that the team made was with rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and rookie tight ends don't often do much in their first season. The other players in the offense have been around Buffalo and just don't offer a compelling enough reason for Allen to start targeting them over Diggs, so feel free to draft this stud wide receiver early and often yet again this season.

 Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Bye: 9)
Height: 6’1”   Weight: 195   DOB: 1999-10-24   Age: 24
College: Southern California   Draft: 2021 Round 4 (7) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2021DET1790 912 5 7 61 1 133.3 7.8
2022DET16106 1,161 6 9 95 0 161.6 10.1
2023 (Projected)DET 99 1,098 5 10 78 1 153.6  

Outlook: St. Brown followed up his historic rookie season with an even better encore. The shifty slot receiver was nearly unguardable, as he finished 5th in the NFL with 106 receptions. His 146 targets, good for 8th in the league, proved he's slated for much more than a complementary piece in the NFL. Instead, as the sole real receiver threat in the Detroit passing game, St. Brown carried the offense as they surged in the 2nd half of the season. After a ripping hot start to 2023, he cooled considerably, at least until Week 10. In the final nine games St. Brown finished with fewer than seven standard points only once (Week 18), and piled up target totals of 11, 10, 12, 10, and 13.

The Sun-God will be counted on once again this year, as Jameson Williams serves a six-game suspension, and the remainder of the receiver room is mediocre at best. St. Brown made his money at the short and intermediate level, as the deep balls were spread elsewhere. He's expressed a desire this offseason to be more of a downfield threat, and he will need to be in order to enter the upper echelon of receivers. St Brown is a microcosm of how this Detroit team is built. Punch above your weight, fight for every yard, and be in a position to make plays. If he can add a vertical dimension, he has a chance to repeat and maybe even exceed the 2022 top-10 finish.

 Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Bye: 7)
Height: 6’0”   Weight: 183   DOB: 2000-07-22   Age: 23
College: Ohio State   Draft: 2022 Round 1 (10) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2022NYJ1783 1,103 4 4 4 0 134.7 7.9
2023 (Projected)NYJ 84 1,125 7 0 0 0 154.5  

Outlook: The 2022 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year returns for his second season, now with a significant upgrade at quarterback, in an offense that is expected to be much better than it was under the likes of Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco. Aaron Rodgers might not be the player he was during his prime, but he's certainly an upgrade over what Wilson had as a rookie when he caught 83 passes for 1,103 yards. Not only that, but Rodgers is an absolute surgeon in the red zone, which should help Wilson improve upon the four touchdowns he scored.

Wilson is one of those players who we've seen good things from, but who hasn't quite ascended into the "elite" tier at the position yet, so less-knowledgeable fantasy managers might overlook this talented young pass catcher. He's currently being drafted in the third round of most drafts, which seems fair given that offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has proven to be a slow-paced play-caller and that might limit Wilson's true upside to finish near the top of the fantasy WRs. However, we've seen Rodgers support some truly monster fantasy seasons from his WR1s in the past, and with Wilson being the locked-in WR1 in this offense, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic that Wilson breaks into the "reliable WR1" tier here in 2023.

 Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Bye: 10)
Height: 5’10”   Weight: 182   DOB: 1998-11-25   Age: 25
College: Alabama   Draft: 2021 Round 1 (6) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2021MIA16104 1,015 6 2 3 1 143.8 9.0
2022MIA1775 1,356 8 3 26 0 186.2 11.0
2023 (Projected)MIA 84 1,182 7 0 0 0 160.2  

Outlook: He might not have quite the speed of his teammate Tyreek Hill, but Jaylen Waddle is still absurdly quick and is really proving himself to be one of the league's most dynamic weapons as he heads into his third professional season. Waddle improved on his breakout rookie season in just about every conceivable way this past season, but the way he was utilized in the McDaniel offense was night and day from what we saw from him as a rookie under the previous regime.

The Dolphins used more pre-snap motion than any team in the league and that helped fuel Waddle to one of the most ridiculous yards-per-reception improvements in recent memory. Many were comparing Waddle's 2021 rookie season in which he caught 104 passes for 1,015 yards to that of players like Jarvis Landry, who are primarily underneath possession receivers who don't offer much explosiveness. That completely shifted when McDaniel came to town, as he started scheming Waddle in a totally different way, allowing him to utilize his speed and shiftiness to get open down the field. This meant fewer total receptions as he caught just 75 balls, but the receptions he did make were enormously more valuable as he went for an impressive 1,356 yards. That's an improvement of over 350 yards despite catching 29 fewer passes. This meant that Waddle's yards per reception total nearly doubled from 9.8 as a rookie in 2021 to a league-leading 18.1 in 2022.

Certainly, some of this improved efficiency was due to factors other than Waddle himself getting better, but so what? Even if Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill are to thank for much of it, they're still going to be here in Miami this season, so there's really no reason to think that things will change substantially for Waddle in 2023. Of course, an 18.1 yards per reception number is unlikely to continue no matter the situation given that it's such a high number, but even a bit of a regression in YPR could be completely negated by Waddle simply seeing a bit more volume.

Waddle finished as the WR7 in 2022 and with the Dolphins failing to bring in any notable competition for him in the offense, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic that he can again finish as a WR1 for fantasy this season. It's tough to project that two wide receivers in the same offense can do that in back-to-back seasons, but this duo, in this offense, seems like the strongest bet to do it that we've seen in recent history.

 Cooper Kupp, LAR (Bye: 10)
Height: 6’2”   Weight: 204   DOB: 1993-06-15   Age: 30
College: Eastern Washington   Draft: 2017 Round 3 (5) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020LAR1592 974 3 4 33 0 118.7 7.9
2021LAR17145 1,947 16 4 18 0 292.5 17.2
2022LAR975 812 6 9 52 1 128.4 14.3
2023 (Projected)LAR 87 1,109 7 5 38 0 156.7  

Outlook: How heavily involved was Kupp on offense last season? He missed the final eight games of the season after suffering an ankle injury and still led the team in receptions (75) and receiving yards (812) while his six TDs were second only to Akers (7). His full-season pace: 142 catches, 1,534 yards, and 11 scores. The 30-year-old is one of the toughest covers in the league thanks to his precise route running, and he has the complete trust of Stafford and McVay, so he'll always be a focal point offensively.

As good as Kupp is, however, we saw last year how a lack of options around him had an adverse effect. After averaging 13.4 yards per catch in Stafford's first year with the club, that dipped to 10.8, which was the second-lowest of his career. His number of big plays (defined as receptions of 20 yards or more) also cratered -- 30 of his 145 catches in 2021 fit that designation, which was good for nearly 21 percent, while last year that fell to 11 of 75, or 14.7 percent.

Despite some worrisome trends, Kupp is such a high-volume target that he deserves to be in the discussion for which receiver should be selected first in drafts. When considering age and upside, Justin Jefferson looks like the overall WR1, but after that you can absolutely go with Kupp ahead of the likes of Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tyreek Hill.

 DK Metcalf, SEA (Bye: 5)
Height: 6’3”   Weight: 228   DOB: 1997-12-14   Age: 26
College: Mississippi   Draft: 2019 Round 2 (32) 
SeasonTeamGameRec Yard TDAtt Yard TDFPtsFPts/G
2020SEA1683 1,303 10 0 0 0 190.3 11.9
2021SEA1775 967 12 1 6 0 169.3 10.0
2022SEA1790 1,048 6 0 0 0 140.8 8.3
2023 (Projected)SEA 87 1,088 7 0 0 0 150.8  

Outlook: When Russell Wilson was traded to Denver, Metcalf felt far more likely to retain his value based on the 235-pounder's physical style of play, allowing him to take short passes and power through defensive backs. For the most part, that bore fruit. Metcalf set career highs in targets (141) and receptions (90) while topping 1,000 yards for the second time in four NFL campaigns. The only blemish was watching his touchdown total get cut in half, from 12 in 2021 to six, which was a personal low.

One negative trend that began in Wilson's final year also continued, as Metcalf's yards per catch fell from 12.9 to 11.6 after dropping down from 15.7 in 2020. He simply hasn't been as involved in the downfield passing game and is becoming more of a chain mover. Perhaps that will change now that Seattle added Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who dramatically upgrades the depth of the receiver room -- to that point, Marquise Goodwin finished third among the team's wideouts with just 27 catches.

While there are some unknowns with Metcalf, he has fewer than his running mates. At 25, he's in his prime, and his physical style is nearly impossible to fully neutralize. As Seattle's No. 1 receiver, Metcalf is either a low-end WR1 or a very strong WR2 with top-10 upside.