When we think of preparing for the upcoming fantasy season, it's
a good idea to not only project the future, but to learn from the
past. Well, the Super Bowl is over and we've had a few weeks away
from the fantasy wars. For most sane people it's a long way to the
next fantasy football season. For the rest of us it's time to start
making those projections that will earn a return to the playoffs.
Waiting until July may be the most comfortable option, but.. now,
even before the NFL player draft is the best time to begin getting
mentally prepared and pre-sort our priorities.
Even now, it's very safe to assume that the Culpeppers, Warners,
Faulks, Williams, and Owens of our hobby will be hot properties
during the late-summer drafts. The question is not if we should
target them. Because a players production is directly tied to his
team's success, the question is how much we will target them.
Strength of schedule is an established tool in projecting both team
and individual performance. In the early years, salty FFLers would
seek an edge by self-tabulating these now common charts. It allows
us a quick view of who has the softer paths to success.
2 0 0 1 S T R E
N G T H O F S C H E D U L E
Rank
Team
2000 W-L
Opp. W-L
Opp. W-L%
Games vs.
+.500 teams
Games vs.
Playoff teams
T-1
DEN
11-5
118-138
0.461
6
6
WAS
8-8
118-138
0.461
7
6
T-3
PHI
11-5
119-137
0.465
6
6
SD
1-15
119-137
0.465
5
5
5
BUF
8-8
120-136
0.469
8
5
6
ATL
4-12
122-134
0.477
7
6
7
DET
9-7
123-133
0.480
9
6
T-8
CAR
7-9
124-132
0.484
8
6
OAK
12-4
124-132
0.484
8
7
T-10
CHI
5-11
125-131
0.488
9
5
CLE
3-11
125-131
0.488
8
4
12
NE
5-11
126-130
0.492
9
7
T-13
CIN
4-12
127-129
0.496
9
5
DAL
5-11
127-129
0.496
8
7
NO
10-6
127-129
0.496
7
6
SEA
6-10
127-129
0.496
7
7
T-17
ARI
3-13
128-128
0.500
7
6
BAL
12-4
128-128
0.500
9
6
JAX
7-9
128-128
0.500
8
5
20
KC
7-9
129-127
0.504
9
7
T-21
NYG
12-4
130-126
0.508
8
7
SF
6-10
130-126
0.508
9
7
23
STL
13-3
131-125
0.512
9
7
T-24
PIT
9-6
132-124
0.516
8
6
TEN
13-3
132-124
0.516
10
6
T-26
MIA
11-5
133-123
0.520
8
6
NYJ
9-7
133-123
0.520
8
7
28
GB
9-7
136-120
0.531
9
7
29
IND
10-6
138-118
0.539
9
7
30
TB
10-6
142-114
0.555
12
7
31
MIN
11-5
147-109
0.574
12
7
With special thanks
to FFToday for the 2001 schedule table.
While the Eagles and Chargers are not equal teams, they do have
nearly equal 2001 schedule difficulty. How good NFL teams can be
this year may depend on how bad they were last year -- never underestimate
the value of a "last-place schedule" or the additional
challenges facing division champions.
In 2000, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Arizona, Oakland, Denver, New
Orleans, San Francisco, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and NY Giants had
the most attractive opponent won-loss records. Seven of those ten
teams made the playoffs. The entire AFC East was bottom ranked going
into the season. Aside from them, only the Vikings advanced into
the playoffs from a difficult schedule.
Last year was not a fluke, either. In 1998, six of the top eight
qualified for the playoffs! Remember the wacky 1999 season? Five
more of the teams with softer schedules advanced. In these times
of rapid playoff changes, information like this can alter our draft
priorities and in-season success.
After ignoring any team with 4 or fewer wins the prior season, a
positive pattern between winners and ease of schedule exist...
2000
1999
1998
1. Philadelphia
1. St Louis
1. Arizona
2. St. Louis
2. Washington
2. San Francisco
3t. Oakland
3t. Buffalo
3. Miami
5t. New Orleans
4. Tennessee
4. Buffalo
5t. Denver
5. Jacksonville
7t. Dallas
7. Tennessee
8. Atlanta
9. NY Giants
9t. NY Jets
Looking for the Fred Taylor or Brian Griese of the 2001 season?
Look no further than at a player's strength of schedule for a hint
as to who'll have an outstanding opportunity. Fantasy production
is not always about best talent, but more about how good a player's
competition is week in and week out.
