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Position Battles – Running Back


By: — August 24, 2009 @ 2:18 pm
Filed under: Forecast

Just like every other year, there are a handful of starting running back positions with an uncertain outcome, and picking the right side could make or break your fantasy season. For the most part, these players are worth having but not worth reaching too early for given their uncertain playing time. Therefore, the value will be found when these players start to fall in your league’s draft or if the auction cost is low.

There are two bigger name players in this group – Thomas Jones of the Jets and Derrick Ward of the Bucs. The Jets starting quarterback will likely be rookie Mark Sanchez after Brett Favre’s departure, plus the team lost starting wide receiver Laveraneus Coles, both moves that will hurt Jones’ fantasy potential. Ward moved over to the Bucs from the Giants and is supposedly in a battle with Earnest Graham for the starting position.

New York Jets – Thomas Jones vs. Leon Washington vs. Shonn Greene

We’re putting this in here as a battle but that’s mainly because most people seem to think it’s one. We don’t. Jones is coming off a huge season, he’s a workout warrior and motivated to earn a new contract and avoid being given the pink slip after this season. Sure, his fantasy situation isn’t as favourable as last season when he finished as the league’s 5th ranked fantasy running back but he’s unlikely to lose his spot to the diminutive Washington or Greene, the team’s 3rd round pick in 2009. Jones won’t likely be a top ten back in 2009 but should be a decent low end second running back with mild upside. The risk is the Jets season going south and Jones losing playing time to Greene.

Arizona — Tim Hightower vs. Chris “Beanie” Wells

Not satisfied with Hightower’s performance as a starter as a rookie in 2008 when he averaged just 2.8 yards per carry but still managed to score 10 TD, the Cardinals spent a 1st round pick on Chris Wells to provide competition and depth at the position. Reports out of Arizona indicate that Hightower is having a solid training camp while the rookie Wells is in limbo courtesy of a right ankle injury. Questions regarding Wells’ durability helped cause his draft stock to fall and missing time will certainly impact his ability to supplant Hightower. Rookie running backs generally struggle with their pass blocking assignments and that is very relevant in Arizona where starting quarterback Kurt Warner is perhaps the least mobile player at his position in the league. Basically, Hightower played well enough last year to deserve another chance unless Wells had an outstanding training camp and that can’t happen when he’s in the trainer’s room. Look for Hightower to start on opening day and for Wells to have to earn the starting nod as the season progresses. Either way, this looks to be a timeshare.

Tampa Bay — Earnest Graham vs. Derrick Ward

After three years in the league, Graham came virtually out of nowhere to post 898 yards rushing, 10 TD and 324 yards receiving in 2007 despite starting only ten games. Unfortunately, he followed that up with a lacklustre campaign in 2008 with 737 combined yards and four TD while missing six games due to injury. The verdict out of Tampa was that Graham was not a full time back and hence the decision to sign Ward away from the Giants.

Ward is coming off a stellar campaign in New York, where he topped 1,000 rushing yards as Brandon Jacobs’ backup while also notching 384 receiving yards, good enough for the 23rd fantasy ranking at the position. Critics point to the fact that Ward managed just two TD and benefited playing behind a solid Giants offensive line. However, he did manage 5.6 yards per carry and 9.8 yards per reception and there is little doubting that Jacobs is one of the better, if not the best, short yardage backs in the league. In addition, the new Bucs regime brought in their guy, he was hugely productive in 2008 and he is shiftier and provides more big play potential than the incumbent. The only question here is whether Graham gets the goal line carries.

Baltimore — Willis McGahee vs. Le’Ron McClain vs. Ray Rice

The veteran malcontent goes up against the out of nowhere fullback and the diminutive second year player for the starting running back position on the team that figures to run the ball more than any other team in the league in 2009. This has the makings of an extremely fascinating fantasy football issue heading into this season as owners determine which back to hedge their bets on. Unfortunately, what’s more likely to occur is that all three will put up decent production but ultimately disappoint their fantasy owners because of consistency issues.

Rice figures to have the most upside given that he is currently carrying starter status and is the best receiving option amongst the three players. McClain will focus more on a fullback role in 2009 but could be the short yardage and closer running back, particularly if the team keeps Jason Cook as a backup fullback. McGahee, who is coming off offseason knee surgery, will likely spell Rice and get significant carries in a backup role. In a nutshell, it is likely best to avoid all three unless they fall to the lower rounds in your league’s draft. If you must have one, bet on Rice.

Denver — LaMont Jordan vs. Correll Buckhalter vs. Knowshon Moreno

Another fantasy carousel figures to happen in Denver where new head coach Josh McDaniels brought over Jordan with him from the Patriots, signed Buckhalter from the Eagles and drafted Moreno with the 12th pick in the draft. McDaniels also signed J.J. Arrington but the team released him after determining his knee wasn’t healthy enough to allow him to contribute in 2009. The team also has fullback Peyton Hillis, who averaged 14.4 points per game over his last six games in 2008.

Moreno clearly has the most upside of the bunch and figures to be starting by midseason, given the new regime’s investment in him. Look for Jordan to start on opening day before being relegated to a relief role, Buckhalter to be utilized on passing downs and Hillis to move to more of a traditional fullback role. Moreno’s the guy to have but don’t reach for him.

New England — Sammy Morris vs. Fred Taylor vs. Laurence Maroney

The Patriots backfield is a fantasy mess, consisting of talented but injury prone players (Morris, Maroney), a solid receiving option (Kevin Faulk), a low rent 2nd year player who scored five TD in just 74 carries as a rookie (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and a veteran newcomer with a history of putting up 1,000 yards rushing (Taylor). Look for Morris or Taylor to earn the starting job out of camp with Maroney either earning time as a backup or being moved to another team. Green-Ellis will be in tough to make the roster and Faulk will definitely have a few big games catching the ball out of the backfield. This is another situation to avoid but the players with the most potential are Taylor and Maroney with Taylor getting the nod here.


Position Battles – Quarterback


By: — August 21, 2009 @ 8:23 am
Filed under: Forecast

There are a number of starting quarterback positions open across the league and their resolutions can have a significant fantasy football impact for the skill position players on their teams. In general, the quarterbacks that have to battle for a starting position are not potential starters for fantasy purposes and in most cases are unlikely to be worthy backups. However, there are always surprises at every position in fantasy football so there’s a chance one of these players could claim the job and put up solid numbers.

This list is in order of which battles are most likely to produce a decent starter for your fantasy team. The situation in Oakland where JaMarcus Russell is currently slated to start ahead of Jeff Garcia has been excluded because it seems clear that Russell will win the job, although the Raiders may have a quick hook if he doesn’t produce.

Detroit – Daunte Culpepper vs. Matthew Stafford

The winner of this battle gets to throw to the ultra talented Calvin Johnson and a revamped group of veteran receivers. Culpepper is familiar with new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan’s offense from their days together in Minnesota so he is likely to get the nod on opening day. However, it’s anybody’s guess as to how long he keeps it. If Stafford wins out, Johnson’s production is likely to suffer at least marginally.

Cleveland – Brady Quinn vs. Derek Anderson

Quinn seems destined to win this battle and relegate Anderson to the bench just two years after his 3,786 yard, 29 TD performance in 2007, a spectacular fall from grace. However, the Browns offense was horrible in 2008, failing to score an offensive touchdown during their last six games. With a receiving corps led by the enigmatic Braylon Edwards and featuring two rookies plus veteran retreads David Patten and Mike Furrey, a breakout campaign from either of these signal callers is unlikely in 2009. Quinn will likely wind up starting but hopefully not for your fantasy team.

San Francisco – Shaun Hill vs. Alex Smith

Hill put up surprisingly solid statistics in eight starts in 2008, posting 1,793 yards with 12 TD and 8 interceptions. He also had 115 yards rushing and a TD which padded his fantasy stats. However, new head coach Mike Singletary has clearly stated that he plans to increase the team’s reliance on the running game so whoever is starting will almost certainly not achieve fantasy starter status. It says here that a more mature Smith emerges to reclaim the job from Hill, however that opinion is in the minority at the moment. Either way, the team’s starter is fantasy backup material.

Tampa Bay – Josh McCown vs. Byron Leftwich vs. Josh Freeman

This is the fantasy backwater and if any of these guys ends up on your roster, you should be scouring the waiver wire or looking for a trade early in the season. McCown has been scattershot throughout his career, Leftwich has started eight games over the last three years and Freeman figures to need a year of seasoning before being given a shot at the starting gig. Although the team does possess excellent receiving talent in Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow, the overall situation in Tampa looks like one of two veteran retreads throwing to a pair of malcontents. Turn your head away so you don’t see the train wreck in Tampa.

New York Jets – Kellen Clemens vs. Mark Sanchez

The Jets have not named a starter yet but it will be a huge shock if Sanchez does not win this battle. Clemens may be a former 2nd round pick but he looks lost and unsure of himself in the pocket. Sanchez may struggle early but look for the Jets to accept the growing pains in hopes of getting a better return early. Realistically, new head coach Rex Ryan will have the Jets offense heavily focused on the run. Sanchez is a fantasy third stringer at best and Clemens isn’t worth owning even if he wins the job.


Faceoff – 2nd Ranked WR


By: — August 17, 2009 @ 12:25 pm
Filed under: Forecast

The Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald is the consensus top ranked fantasy wide receiver, courtesy of his outstanding performance last year and other worldly run in the playoffs. The Cardinals offense returns its nucleus and there’s little reason to think Fitzgerald won’t duplicate his performance of 2008. In fact, there’s a good chance he will be even better in 2009.

There is also general consensus that the 2nd through 4th ranked fantasy wide receivers come from a group of Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss. The question is, who should be the 2nd ranked fantasy wide receiver on your draft board?

Randy Moss

Randy Moss

 
Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson

There are sound arguments for all three. Andre Johnson had a stellar year in 2008, finishing as fantasy’s 2nd ranked wideout. The Texans offense looks ready to bust out after having a very solid year both running and passing in 2008. If quarterback Matt Schaub can actually stay healthy for 16 games, Johnson could hit 1,600 yards and 10 plus TD.

Calvin Johnson was superb in his 2nd season with the Lions, posting 78 receptions for 1,331 yards and 12 TD despite questionable play at the quarterback position and a running game that stumbled early. Kevin Smith figures to solidify the running game in 2009 but there are questions at quarterback, where Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford, the 1st selection in the NFL Draft, are battling it out for the starting position. Johnson put up big numbers with marginal play at the position in 2008 so there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again in 2009, although there is some risk that the team will go with Stafford and risk the growing pains.

Moss gets quarterback Tom Brady back and has an opportunity to duplicate his 2007 season, perhaps the best performance by a wide receiver in the history of the game. Reports out of New England indicate Brady is fully healthy and Moss owners should reap the rewards of that. Brady validated those reports in his pre-season game appearance against the Eagles, throwing 2 TD in the first half. Expecting Moss to once again approach his 2007 production of 1,493 yards and 23 TD at the age of 32 is unrealistic. However, he put up 1,008 yards and 11 TD in 2008 and fans of the Patriots know that his numbers would have been much better had Matt Cassel been more accurate with the deep ball. Moss still has excellent speed and it is fair to say that he would have had close to 300 more yards and four or five additional TD had Brady been behind center in 2008. Based on that, Moss is the choice despite his age relative to Johnson and Johnson. ~ Dave

Trying to determine which of this talented trio will have the best 2009 is a little nitpicky. Before we get into the detail, keep in mind that this group represents a clear tier of players and if you are able to wait an extra round (i.e. from the 10th or 11th spot in a 12 team league) and still get one of these three, draft another position (RB) first. When it comes to projecting who to draft of these three, it’s less about predicting who will have the best year and more about assessing the risk. Based on his quarterback, lousy talent around him and shorter history in the league, Calvin Johnson clearly has the most risk of the three making this, for me, a question of Randy Moss vs. Andre Johnson.

Moss is the more intriguing option because of the incredible potential posed by a 2007-like season from Pats QB Tom Brady. Consequently a lot of owners will fall in love with Moss and expect huge numbers. Temper your enthusiasm. The Patriots’ 2007 was a once-in-a-generation occurrence and no matter how healthy Tom Terrific is, you’d be foolish to expect a repeat performance. In a great but not spectacular year, Moss will still produce great numbers in spite of the presence of Wes Welker.

Andre Johnson has emerged as a top wide receiver in football. As the feature player in a dangerous offence, you can expect him to be targeted as much or more than Moss. As Steve Slaton continues to improve, I expect the offence to open up a little offering Johnson even more opportunity to stretch out big gains and score touchdowns. With Owen Daniels likely to pick up more coverage underneath, Johnson should also profit from some play action and deep middle of the field routes.

You really can’t go wrong with Moss or either Johnson, but since I expect an improvement from the Texans overall, Andre Johnson is my pick by a hair. ~ Andy


Faceoff – 30 Year Old RB Outlook


By: — August 14, 2009 @ 11:31 am
Filed under: Forecast

In the NFL, the widely held belief is that running backs decline rapidly once they hit the 30 year old mark and there are a number of major fantasy producers that hit that mark in 2009. LaDainian Tomlinson of the Chargers and Brian Westbrook of the Eagles turned 30 already and Larry Johnson of the Chiefs turns 30 during the season.

Tomlinson has ruled the fantasy landscape for much of the past decade, finishing as the top ranked fantasy running back twice, third three times, fourth and seventh twice, including last year, since joining the league in 2001. The consensus seems to be that he is now past his prime and not capable of recreating his past exploits.

Johnson burst onto the fantasy scene in 2005, courtesy of Priest Holmes injury problems, and finished as the second ranked fantasy back despite starting just nine games. [Editor’s note: Holmes missed half of his 2004 season and more than half of 2005. He turned 31 in October 2004.] Johnson followed that up with a second place ranking in 2006 but injuries, attitude and suspensions have derailed his last two seasons.

Westbrook has averaged 15.3 points per game and 215 points a season since earning a major role in the Eagles offense in 2003. However, he battled injuries last year, lacked consistency when he was in the lineup and had surgery in June to clean up bone spurs in his right ankle.

So which of these three players, if any, do you gamble on heading into 2009? Let’s find out.

Brian Westbrook

Brian Westbrook

 
LaDainian Tomlinson

LaDainian Tomlinson

Evaluating older running backs is difficult, especially when you can see they are on the way down. You never know when there will be another stud season before the sun sets, and you always worry about this season being the one where the big slide into retirement starts. As a fantasy owner, you shouldn’t get emotionally tied to the player or to the stats he has put up in the past. Every player declines unless they hang them up early. The question is, when?

For the purposes of this discussion, I’m putting Johnson on the shelf. He is getting drafted rounds later than Tomlinson or Westbrook, so if you really want to buck the trend, you could draft a pair of these thirty somethings. Now that we’ve narrowed the field, is there an objective way to evaluate Brian Westbrook and LaDainian Tomlinson? There are three main things I consider: (1) age and player history, (2) competition for touches and (3) strength of schedule.

We know that both backs are about the same chronological age, but what about “football age”? Tomlinson has played in 16 games in every year except 2004 when he managed 15. Over his career he averaged 396 touches and has managed to stay mostly injury free while watching his production erode slowly from its peak in 2006. Westbrook has travelled a very different road. After easing his way into the Eagles offense early in his career, Westbrook averaged 324 touches per year the last three years. Despite this smaller workload and a slower start to his career, Westbrook seems to miss a game or two per year while being limited in others. Still, I give the edge to Westbrook here on potential to finish the season. While he seems to get dinged a little more historically, LT’s significantly higher average touch total is a big red flag that if one of them is going to go down fast and furious, Tomlinson is the more likely candidate.

In terms of competition for touches, both backs have young understudies getting set to push them for carries this season. Darren Sproles showed enough last year in LT’s absence to earn the Chargers’ franchise tag. HC Norv Turner has made it clear LT is still the main guy, but they will pick their spots utilizing Sproles on offense. The Eagles drafted LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round and have high hopes for him. It is a close call but we’ll lean to advantage Westbrook here for this season given the rookie status of McCoy vs. the veteran Sproles.

Looking at the strength of schedule, the Eagles play early games against New Orleans, Kansas City and Tampa Bay with a few middle of the road defenses as the season wears on thanks to their 2nd place schedule. San Diego does profit from playing in the weak AFC West, but they play a 1st place schedule plus face Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the first 4 weeks of the season. The strength of schedule also seems to point to Westbrook as the slightly safer pick.

This is a very tough call, but Westbrook is the pick this year over Tomlinson. Be sure to handcuff McCoy to Westy as insurance against injury. ~ Dave

This is a tough debate. All three are former studs who, despite their advancing age, are still talented players. The consensus third option would seem to be Johnson. However, he averaged 10.4 points per game last year despite a slow start to the season and playing for an offense that was truly horrible for a large part of it. He didn’t seem to run as hard as in past years but is still a powerful back who managed 874 yards and five TD in just 12 games last year. Plus, he figures to be motivated at least during training camp because his 2009 salary is not guaranteed and the team has added youngsters Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles over the last two years.

Westbrook will play behind a stout Eagles offensive line on a team loaded with solid, if not superstar, skill position players. The Eagles added LeSean McCoy in the draft but Westbrook is clearly the team’s top threat at the running back position. The Eagles may look to reduce his role somewhat in 2009 in hopes of avoiding injuries and keeping him fresh for the playoffs. If healthy and even with a reduced role, Westbrook has the potential to land in the top ten.

Tomlinson figures to lose at least some playing time to Darren Sproles, who shined at the end of last season and in the playoffs. Although Tomlinson played nicked up in 2008, he still managed 1,531 combined yards and 11 TD while playing in all 16 games. As with prior years, the Chargers are loaded on offense and Tomlinson figures to reap the benefits at the goal line. Even if his yards go down, 12 to 16 TD seems reasonable. It says here that Tomlinson is the best option given his TD potential and the fact that Sproles really isn’t a threat to eat into playing time on 1st and 2nd downs. ~ Andy


Faceoff – Roy Williams a Top 10 WR?


By: — August 11, 2009 @ 1:41 am
Filed under: Forecast

The Cowboys gave up a boatload of draft picks to obtain Roy Williams from the Lions last year in the hopes he would provide an explosive second option at the position opposite Terrell Owens. The move didn’t have the intended results as Williams bombed with just 19 receptions for 198 yards and a score in ten games in Dallas. Although Williams had to learn the playbook in a short period of time, his marginal production was still surprising.

With Owens released and now in Buffalo, Williams moves into the lead receiver position in Dallas and the team is counting on him to produce. With a solid stable of skill position players and an aging but still effective offensive line, the Cowboys figure to be a top ten offense in 2009. For fantasy purposes, the issue is whether Williams will be worth a relatively high draft pick that it will cost to get him.

Roy Williams

Roy Williams

 
Roy Williams

Roy Williams

At 6’3″, 220 pounds and possessing good speed, Williams certainly looks the part of superstar receiver and potential fantasy stud. However, the bottom line is that he has one 1,000 yard season in five years in the league. On average, he has produced 56 receptions for 816 yards and six TD which makes him a decent low end second receiver for fantasy purposes. Now that he’s in Dallas, the Williams bandwagon is expanding but he certainly seems like a risky option where he is being drafted. With tight end Jason Witten expected to be the Cowboys top receiving threat and also an excellent red zone option, it remains to be seen how Williams will react to playing second fiddle. In addition, the team has received solid production from Patrick Crayton, they are high on young wideouts Miles Austin and Sam Hurd and will rely heavily on the running back trio of Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.

While Williams certainly has the talent and supporting cast to produce a solid season, there are more reliable options where his current draft position is. If he falls in your league, he’s worth taking a gamble on but don’t reach for Williams. ~ Dave

Roy Williams never reached his potential in Detroit, partly because of his attitude and partly because of the abominable team he was playing on during those years. The move to Dallas in 2008 was widely considered to be a rebirth for Williams as he would be playing on a good team in a high powered offense. Looking back we know that the transition didn’t pan out the way Williams owners would have hoped, but that doesn’t mean it is time to give up on him. Williams still has all of the characteristics that made him a high draft choice and now has a full year in the Dallas offense under his belt.

Looking at the situation in Dallas, Williams is really only competing with Jason Witten for catches in the passing game. Also-rans like Miles Austin and Sam Hurd are no threat to Williams, and Dallas will want to prove the investment in Williams and jettison of Owens was a positive move by the franchise. Naturally, the talented backfield will pick up a large portion of the offensive touches, but an effective running game will open up and ease the passing game. It might be just a gut feeling, but I think OC Jason Garrett will use the space created in the running game and the attention paid to Jason Witten to create openings for Roy Williams on the outside and in the deep zone.

Williams has the opportunity to land amongst the top 10 WR when all is said and done. Don’t pay that much for him, and you shouldn’t have to unless you reside in Dallas, but if you can get him as a late drafted WR2 or even WR3, you could be sitting on a difference maker for your fantasy squad. ~ Andy


Faceoff – Who Carries The Load In Oakland?


By: — August 6, 2009 @ 1:27 am
Filed under: Forecast

The Raiders have one of the most interesting backfields in the league for fantasy football purposes. Talented young running backs Darren McFadden and Michael Bush share the workload with productive veteran Justin Fargas. In addition, the trio’s production hinges on solid play from 3rd year quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who has struggled during his first two years in the league. While the Raiders managed just five wins in 2008, in large part due to their struggle to score points, the offense played well over the final three games with Russell tossing six touchdowns against just two interceptions. We’ll find out in 2009 whether that was a trend or an aberration.

Darren McFadden

Darren McFadden

 
Michael Bush

Michael Bush

Oakland has been a mess for years and there isn’t much to indicate that 2009 will be a turnaround year. One saving grace is that they play in the AFC West, likely the worst division in the league this year. Another is the team’s talented running backs. Look for the Raiders to increase Darren McFadden’s role, for Bush to assume the short yardage and 4th quarter work (not that they will have many leads to protect) and for Fargas to play a limited role, provided the team is willing to pay a high salary to a third string player. However, it all starts with McFadden and his big play ability. As a rookie, he managed 9.9 points per game in the ten games he was clearly healthy despite playing for an offense that ranked 29th in total yards. Predicting a breakout is difficult given the lack of talent on offense but he should be a decent option as a low end second running back with upside. Bush is also intriguing and played well when given an opportunity last year. If McFadden goes down, Bush has the ability to produce given his powerful running style and decent hands out of the backfield. The major issue with both players is that Oakland will struggle to finish in the middle of the pack on offense given the team’s dire situation at receiver and questionable offensive line talent. McFadden is a player to target but not worth reaching for and Bush is a solid option to stash at the end of your fantasy bench. ~ Dave

The path to fantasy success invariably includes a flier or late round gem that contributes more than expected. With that in mind, Michael Bush is an excellent player to target this year. McFadden appears to be headed for Reggie Bush-ville as a former high draft pick relegated to role player status, in large part due to his inability to stay healthy. The word on McFadden is that he is soft between the tackles and is not developing at the rate that Al “The Sea Monster” Davis had hoped. Meanwhile, Bush has all the tools to be a feature back and has been flying under the radar since his catastrophic college knee injury. Limited carries have allowed Bush to ease back into the regular pounding experienced by an NFL running back and he appears to be healthy heading into 2010. I see Bush having one or two very good years, maybe even three. The trick is to figure out when they are going to come. We might see a Michael Turner scenario where Bush needs to leave Oakland to find extended carries elsewhere, but it is worth gambling on him having a 240+ touch season in Oakland this year. Given the ADP of either back, Bush is not a huge risk but the reward could be enormous. ~ Andy


Faceoff – Terrell Owens, Brandon Marshall


By: — August 5, 2009 @ 7:55 am
Filed under: Forecast

This faceoff turns our attention to controversial wide receivers Terrell Owens of the Bills and Brandon Marshall of the Broncos. Owens enters his first year and perhaps only year in Buffalo while Marshall tries to remain productive in Denver without quarterback Jay Cutler. Owens is on a one-year contract and Marshall has requested a contract extension as he enters the final year of his rookie contract, but he has been rebuffed by Broncos management. With each player playing for a new contract, they will have plenty of motivation to perform in 2009.

Will Terrell Owens boom or bust in Buffalo?

Terrell Owens

Terrell Owens

 
Terrell Owens

Terrell Owens

Owens is still a talented receiver, despite his advancing age, so predicting a bust year would be foolhardy. However, moving to cold weather Buffalo and going from Tony Romo and Dallas’ high octane offense to Trent Edwards and the Bills sleep inducing offensive philosophy certainly kills any chance Owens will hit the top ten in terms of fantasy production. Last year, Owens’ average points per game dropped from 15.0 to 10.3, his average yards per catch dropped from 16.7 to 15.2 and his TDs plummeted from 15 to 10. He managed to haul in less than 50% of his targets and 40% of his fantasy production came in three games. The signs of decline are obvious and the defensive secondaries in the AFC East are superior to those in the NFC West. And, of course, there is always a risk factor when it comes to the volatile Owens. All that being said, Owens should still top 1,000 yards but not by much and score 6-8 TDs. At this point, he’s a solid second receiver for fantasy purposes but he doesn’t have the upside some other second receivers have. ~ Dave

On pure talent alone, Owens is one of the most gifted players of his generation. Unfortunately that talent comes with a big helping of attitude and arrogance and Owens no longer consistently displays that talent. As Owens gets comfortable in Western New York, there is an increasing groundswell for a bust year in the fantasy community. The argument centers on Owens’ age (36), his quarterback and his propensity to drop balls. I’m not buying. Owens always brings it when he has something to prove, particularly in his first year with a team, and now that he’s relegated to a one-year deal in an NFL backwater, expect a vintage Owens season – 85 catches, 1,300 yards, 12 TDs, 4 memorable end zone celebrations and one first-class ticket out of town. While your fellow owners are concentrating on Owens’ bad attitude and age, snag him and get production just below what the big four receivers (Fitzgerald, Moss, Johnson and Johnson) figure to produce in 2009. ~ Andy

Should Brandon Marshall be ranked as a top ten receiver?

Marshall is clearly an enigma and fantasy loser in the Broncos decision to trade Jay Cutler for a package that included Kyle Orton. However, he is an extremely talented young receiver just coming into his own and has spent time this offseason training with Larry Fitzgerald. If even a little of Fitzgerald’s professionalism wears off on Marshall, the Broncos will be better for it. New coach Josh McDaniels’ offensive system focuses on the wide receiver position and Marshall figures to assume the Randy Moss role with Eddie Royal attempting to duplicate the efforts of Wes Welker. While Orton isn’t the risk taker Cutler is, he is a solid quarterback who has never had anything resembling the talent the Broncos have at receiver and his production was restricted by the Bears conservative offensive approach. Look for him to open it up more in Denver and for Marshall to land in the top ten. ~ Dave

If your fantasy pool awards points for potential or athleticism, then by all means Marshall is in the top 10. If you follow the usual practice of rewarding actual production, then it is time to bump Marshall down to the 12-15 or lower range. With Marshall already in coach McDaniels’ doghouse and Orton’s spaghetti arm replacing Cutler at quarterback, expect a significant drop off in the big receiver’s production. Marshall is also publicly demanding a trade, a distraction that could either detract from his on-field performance or result in a holdout or suspension. With a very deep pool of experienced wideouts available, take a look at Marques Colston, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe and Anquan Boldin ahead of Marshall. ~ Andy


More Draft Rules of Thumb


By: — July 28, 2009 @ 9:34 am
Filed under: Strategy

Continuing the draft strategy advice posted last week, here are five more tips or rules of thumb to keep in mind for your upcoming draft.

6. Don’t Have Too Many Sleepers

Sleepers are the ultimate way to show your competition that you have done your homework and hit a home run on a player. Nonetheless, a roster that has too many sleepers can tend to be one built with a lot of potential but low or inconsistent production. Sleepers are ranked low for a reason – they are higher risk players, and even if they do “hit”, they make take some time to come around and for you to trust starting them on a regular basis.

Therefore, don’t fill out your roster with too many sleepers, especially when there are solid veterans with a proven track record of decent production available. Let’s look at the 49ers wide receiver position heading into last season. Old reliable Isaac Bruce was entering his first season in San Francisco but all the preseason hype was focused on rookie 6th round pick Josh Morgan. At season’s end, Bruce had tallied 125 fantasy points compared to Morgan’s 50. Try to strike a nice balance between upside sleeper picks, and steady, unsexy veteran picks.

7. Never Reach Too Much For Your Sleepers

Just about every team is going to have a couple of sleepers in mind as they head into their draft. As the rounds drift by or the auction dollars get spent, anxiety always enters the picture. Is this the last chance to nab Michael Crabtree, Chris Wells or whoever your sleeper or deep sleeper is? As the pulse quickens, take a step back and remember the definition of a sleeper – a player who provides tremendous value. If you reach for your sleeper a couple of rounds early or spend too much on them, you’re effectively defeating the purpose.

8. Don’t Draft With Trades In Mind

If you’ve been playing fantasy football long enough, you’ve been in a situation where the draft hasn’t gone according to plan and you have made a pick that has put you in a hole. Maybe you took a second tier QB in the fourth round and then watched as two or three rounds passed before a very similar QB was taken and your opponents look to have better rosters than yours currently looks.

At this point, don’t scan other teams’ rosters for holes and then take a player in the hopes of trading that player to fix a hole in your roster. One for one trades after the draft don’t happen very often because teams have just picked their rosters based on their perceived values of the players they have chosen. The one cardinal rule (and sin) in fantasy football is that every owner overvalues their team and players immediately after a draft. Unless available information changes (injuries, revised depth charts, suspensions, etc.), teams aren’t moving their higher draft pick for your lower draft pick. Realistically, only package trades happen immediately after a draft and it generally doesn’t make sense to be banking on a later trade during your draft.

The one caveat to this rule is that there may be occasions where in the middle rounds of a draft a running back or wide receiver is available who is too good to pass up. In terms of 2009, think Colts running back Joseph Addai being available in the 6th round or Vikings wide receiver Bernard Berrian being available in the 8th round. On these rare occasions, the value just might be too great to pass on.

9. Participate In Mock Drafts

Because it’s all about value, mock drafts are an invaluable tool in learning what the general prevailing wisdom is regarding players and their teams. A mock draft will help you determine whether owners believe certain players will return strong from an injury or injury plagued season, whether an up and coming player is ready for a breakout season, etc.

Plus, it’s a great way to hone your draft skills. Participating in a mock might help you remember that mistake you made last year and how you plan to avoid it this year. Maybe it will jar your memory regarding your opponents’ tendencies. If you’re going to be in an auction draft, it’s a great way to get a feel for the flow of an auction.

10. Don’t Take A Player As Payback

Perhaps during the course of your draft, an opponent has taken one of your handcuffs and you now have an opportunity to take one of theirs. Or maybe in last year’s draft, an opponent took the handcuff of your RB1 and left you with a hole on your roster. Building your team isn’t about paybacks so it’s important to focus on the task at hand – getting the best possible fantasy roster that you can. It’s possible that your opponent valued your handcuff more than you did. Maybe they think Adrian Peterson is injury prone so taking Chester Taylor in the 5th round makes sense. If so, they’re unlikely to want to swap handcuffs with you anyways. Move on and finish building your roster with a solid pick instead of one based on spite.

One final tip for auction drafts. Although it doesn’t work for every player because your opponents will figure out your tactic, let other teams bid on key players you have targeted and then when the bidding appears to have stopped, jump in with a bid to get your target. As the number of teams bidding on a player is reduced and the price rises, there’s a tendency for owners to convince themselves that the price they think they are about to pay is solid value for that player. For example, if the bidding on Tom Brady is going up a dollar a bid and seems to have stopped at $40, the owner who has bid $40 will rationalize that this was a good price. If they have rationalized Brady’s value in this manner, then they are unlikely to immediately change their thought process and now view Brady as being worth, say, $43. Jump into the bidding late and he’s likely yours.

Finally, it’s important to remember that we’re all in this for fun. Roll with the punches, enjoy your draft or auction and don’t take it too seriously. Even if your auction doesn’t go according to plan, your in-season roster management ability of executing trades and acquiring players on the waiver wire provides an opportunity to correct any deficiencies in your roster that have occurred during the draft. Plus, a few solid starting line-up decisions may nab a win or two and that always helps.


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