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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — September 7, 2009 @ 10:40 am
As we noted in one of our draft strategy articles, value is king when deciding which players to select in your fantasy football draft or auction. Every year there are certain players that are picked too early or are available late for various reasons. Sometimes a player’s outlook is generally being regarded more optimistically than it should be or perhaps an injury or change in a team’s personnel has caused a player’s stock to fall.
Analyzing average draft position (ADP) data is a great way to find value in your league’s draft or auction. In 2008, Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner provided outstanding value because his ADP was the ninth pick in the 11th round in 12 team leagues, one spot below Jon Kitna, then of the Detroit Lions. This despite the fact that Warner had put up outstanding fantasy seasons previously with the high powered Rams offense, that it was widely known he was going to start over Matt Leinart because of Leinart’s meltdown in the team’s third preseason game and that the team was stacked with outstanding players at the offensive skill positions. Nonetheless, Warner was generally available as a backup fantasy quarterback.
Owners were rewarded with a great season. Warner was remarkably consistent (at least one TD pass in 15 games, 11 games with at least 250 yards passing) and finished as the 4th ranked fantasy QB. Throw away a game against the Patriots in a blizzard in New England when most owners likely benched him and he would have finished as the 2nd ranked fantasy QB.
Overvalued
Matt Ryan, ATL (ADP 6.07) – Quite predictably, the 2nd year pivot is being overdrafted in fantasy leagues this year. He finished a respectable 15th in the fantasy rankings as a rookie but is going off the board as the 9th best QB this year. Although 9th seems a bit optimistic, the biggest problem is that he’s going in the middle of the 6th round ahead of decent quality third receivers and running backs. In Atlanta’s run heavy offense, he doesn’t provide much opportunity for a top five performance but he’s being drafted as such.
Brett Favre, MIN (ADP 9.11) – He’s already banged up, he looked awful in his debut, the team lacks a true number one wide receiver and they will run the ball plenty. Favre is at best a low quality backup with limited upside. Players that figure to be high quality backups are still available when Favre comes off the board. Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Cassel and David Garrard are a few examples of players with much more upside and less risk who are available after Favre gets drafted.
Peyton Manning, IND (ADP 3.02) – It’s hard to put Manning in here but the bottom line is that he’s being drafted ahead of Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner, each of whom should be ranked ahead of Manning, and he simply isn’t worth a high 3rd round pick. Manning’s points per game have declined from 23 to 21 to 19 over the past three seasons and the Colts no longer possess three quality wide receivers. Manning is remarkably consistent and never misses a game but his ADP does not represent solid value.
Undervalued
David Garrard, JAX (ADP 12.01) – Some players are undervalued every year and Garrard is one of those players. Perhaps it’s because he not a glamour quarterback, he doesn’t play in a big market and the team has never had a true number one wideout during his tenure. Of course, he was the 9th ranked fantasy QB in 2008 and 15th in 2007 when he only played in 12 games. Based on average points and excluding players with a minimal number of starts, he was ranked 12th in 2007. Plus, the team added Torry Holt in the offseason, who, even though he is clearly in decline, represents Garrard’s most reliable wide receiver over the last two years.
Matt Hasselbeck, SEA (ADP 10.01) – Hasselbeck’s age (34 in September) and wonky back are certainly cause for concern in fantasy circles. However, his current ADP makes him the 15th quarterback off the board although there is a solid chance that, if healthy, he will crack the top 10 or 12. With Seattle’s run game a mess and the team possessing three solid receivers as well as an excellent pass catching tight end, look for the Seahawks to throw the ball plenty in 2008. The Seahawks followed a similar strategy in 2007 when Hasselbeck finished as the 7th ranked QB.
By: Dave Stringer — September 4, 2009 @ 1:11 am
There are sleepers and then there are the deep sleepers. Players that, although they aren’t likely to make or break your fantasy season, can fill in holes on your roster at key times during the season and allow your team to continue on its winning ways. Occasionally, a deep sleeper comes along and makes a big contribution to your squad and helps push it over the top.
In 2003, Anquan Boldin burst onto the fantasy scene and quickly caught the attention of fantasy enthusiasts and NFL fans alike who had marginal expectations for the 2nd round draft pick. It turned out that the Cardinals knew exactly what they had and had been hiding Boldin during the preseason by minimizing his playing time. In week one against the Lions, Boldin posted 10 receptions for 217 yards and two touchdowns. By season’s end, he had amassed 101 receptions for 1,377 yards and eight touchdowns.
In 2005, Willie Parker was a little thought of 2nd year, former undrafted free agent expected to get minimal playing time behind Jerome Bettis, Duce Staley and Verron Haynes. After a week one performance that included 209 total yards and a touchdown, fantasy owners were clamoring to nab Parker off the waiver wire. Parker finished the season with 1,420 total yards and five touchdowns, fantastic production for a deep sleeper.
In 2008, Steve Slaton of the Texans, Tim Hightower of the Cardinals and Matt Cassel of the Patriots were a few of the deep sleepers that put up solid fantasy production. Think of the production that these players plus Boldin and Parker put up in their coming out seasons when it comes time to make the last few picks in your fantasy draft. You just might strike gold.
Quarterback
Shaun Hill, SF – It’s tough to be high on a journeyman quarterback starting for a team that figures to run the ball plenty in 2009. However, head coach Mike Singletary was focused on the run in 2008 and Hill still managed to post nearly 20 fantasy points per game. With an improved offensive line, the addition of rookie running back Glen Coffee and a potential breakout year for receiver Josh Morgan, Hill could be a surprisingly solid fantasy option at quarterback.
Running Back
James Davis, CLE – Let’s see. Cleveland is clearly in a rebuilding mode. Their starting running back Jamal Lewis is 30 years old. The other contender for the backup spot Jerome Harrison was drafted by the previous regime and has missed two preseason games and posted four yards in three carries in the game he did play. Oh, and Davis averaged 7.8 yards per carry during the preseason, including an 81-yard touchdown run. This rookie 6th round pick is looking like a solid prospect as your number four running back.
Rashad Jennings, JAX – Jennings isn’t about to steal any carries away from Maurice Jones-Drew and the goal line carries will go to Jones-Drew or Greg Jones. However, Jones-Drew is in his first year as the team’s full time back and, while there are few concerns about his durability, the bottom line is that he’s never had to carry the full load for 16 games. If he were to go down, it’s very likely the team would look to Jennings to replace Jones-Drew because he is a closer version of Jones-Drew than Jones would be.
Mike Goodson, CAR – The rookie 4th round pick has had an impressive preseason, posting 118 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. With top backup Jonathan Stewart, a 1st round pick in 2008, having missed OTAs and much of the preseason with an Achilles’ tendon injury, there is a decent chance that Goodson will be DeAngelo Williams‘ top backup for at least part of the season. With the Panthers expected to finish in the top five in rushing in 2009, Goodson is an excellent deep sleeper.
Tashard Choice, DAL – Choice’s situation in Dallas is very similar to Goodson’s. Choice, who averaged almost 13.5 fantasy points per game over the last five games of 2008, is currently running third string behind Marion Barber and Felix Jones, the team’s 1st round pick in 2008. Barber’s hard charging running style make him susceptible to injury and he missed one game in 2008 and played sparingly in three others. Jones was impressive as a rookie but missed 10 games due to injury. With the departure of Terrell Owens and questions about Roy Williams‘ ability to duplicate Owens’ production, the team is expected to rely more heavily on the run in 2009 than they did last year.
Danny Ware, NYG – The Giants featured the league’s best running attack in 2008, utilizing Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw. With Ward’s departure and a season ending injury to rookie 4th round pick Andre Brown, Ware will enter the season third on the depth chart. The injury prone Jacobs has played in just 24 of 32 regular season games over the past two years, which makes it very likely Ware will split carries in at least a few games with Bradshaw. It’s also worth noting that the Giants brass is high on Ware.
Wide Receiver
Austin Collie, IND – Anthony Gonzalez put up solid number as Indy’s third wide receiver and Collie has the inside track for that job. Either Collie lines up in the slot with Gonzalez outside or Pierre Garcon gets the outside looks in the three wide with Gonzalez shifting to the slot. If Collie wins out, the 4th round pick has an excellent opportunity to put up solid numbers in 2009. With reports out of Indy suggesting that Gonzalez is struggling somewhat, the situation in Indy bears watching.
Laurent Robinson, STL – Robinson has already won the starting spot opposite 2008 2nd round pick Donnie Avery and, although the Rams offense figures to struggle, the situation in St. Louis is intriguing. Avery struggled to stay healthy as a rookie and then was hurt early in training camp this year. Keenan Burton, who was expected to win the starting spot opposite Avery, has a long history of injuries, both in college and the pros. Third year player Derek Stanley is coming off ACL surgery, rookie 5th round pick Brooks Foster is on injured reserve and veteran retreads Ronald Curry and Tim Carter are destined for reserve roles, if that, as the team rebuilds. Botton line is the Rams have to throw it to somebody and Robinson figures to get plenty of looks.
Brandon Stokley, DEN – With Brandon Marshall currently doing whatever it takes to get out of Denver and new head coach Josh McDaniels already succumbing to the trade wishes of disgruntled quarterback Jay Cutler, Stokley is looking like a solid sleeper pick in all leagues. In fact, with McDaniels now in Denver and Stokley expected to fill the Wes Welker role in the offense, Stokley is a solid pick in point per reception leagues already. The Marshall situation is just icing on the cake.
Malcom Floyd, SD – The 27-year Floyd enters his fifth season, third on the depth chart in San Diego. Floyd surpassed 2007 1st round pick Craig Davis last season and put up solid numbers (237 yards and two touchdowns) during a four game stretch when Chris Chambers was injured. With Chambers coming off the least productive year of his career and San Diego featuring a high powered offense, Floyd is an excellent deep sleeper.
Tight End
Jermichael Finley, GB – Finley failed to impress the Packers brass as a rookie in 2008, mostly due to his brash attitude and poor understanding of the playbook. However, he seems to have matured during the offseason. Finley will almost certainly start the season as the backup to Donald Lee but he is the team’s future at the position so a move into the starting line-up will not be a surprise. At 6’5″, Finley has the height to be a solid red zone option and he has scored two touchdowns during the preseason. It’s also worth noting that Lee scored 11 touchdowns over the last two seasons.
By: Dave Stringer — September 2, 2009 @ 9:43 am
As noted in the initial WR rankings and strategy articles here, here and here), 2009 is the year of the wide receiver in Fantasy Football. With running backs having increased risk due to age and injury and more teams taking a backfield by committee approach, the chances of striking out at the position are greater than ever. And, as we all know, blowing one of your top two picks is a surefire way to blow your season. Or at least, it sure doesn’t help your cause.
With that in mind, it is increasingly likely that wide receivers will be taken in the middle of the 1st round in many drafts and that as many as ten wide receivers could be taken by the end of the 2nd round in a 12-team, points per reception league. Don’t be left holding the bag with a pair of questionable running back talents who are splitting carries. More than ever, your fantasy season will be dictated by your ability to change your strategy and get talented wide receivers early in your league’s Fantasy drafts or auctions.
- Larry Fitzgerald, ARI – No change at the top and why would there be?
- Andre Johnson, HOU – With a Tom Brady injury and Houston’s defense looking atrocious, Johnson moves up a notch.
- Randy Moss, NE – No longer at number two but still a solid bet for 1,200 plus yards and major touchdowns.
- Calvin Johnson, DET – Stuck at number four only because the Lions figure to once again struggle on O.
- Greg Jennings, GB – Got his bell rung but will be ready on opening day. Fantasy football’s most underrated wide receiver, but why?
- Roddy White, ATL – Moving up from eight. With Harry Douglas out and Michael Turner not a receiving threat, his expected targets increase.
- Steve Smith, CAR – Little warrior will be ready for opening day and figures to be targeted early and often.
- Marques Colston, NO – Saints offense figures to dominate and Colston is the team’s best skill position player, outside of Drew Brees. Up from 11.
- Anquan Boldin, ARI – Sure he gets hurt but he’s a TD machine when healthy.
- Reggie Wayne, IND – Down from seven. Plans are to move him around but age concerns have him sliding a bit.
- Dwayne Bowe, KC – Might lead the league in targets and he’s good enough to translate that into major fantasy points.
- Vincent Jackson, SD – Up a couple of spots due to issues with other players.
- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA
- Brandon Marshall, DEN – Team suspension and ridiculously poor attitude make him fantasy’s biggest boom/bust player. No surprise if at year’s end he’s in the top five or if he’s down at 50. Drops from ten.
- Chad Ochocinco, CIN – A rebound season is looking more likely.
- Roy Williams, DAL – Shoulder injury is a concern, but he’s worth the risk here.
- Hines Ward, PIT – Up from 21. More convinced that ever that the Steelers have morphed from a running team to a passing team.
- DeSean Jackson, PHI – Up from 22. Jackson looks good and figures to improve upon his two TD performance of a year ago. Maturity issues but wonderful talent.
- Wes Welker, NE – Down a notch but incredibly reliable and a great option in PPR leagues.
- Antonio Bryant, TB – Another boom or bust pick with quarterback issues.
- Derrick Mason, BAL – Wasn’t ranked last time due to his “retirement.” Or was that “desire for more money.” Can’t remember.
- Santana Moss, WAS – Up from 26. Moss has looked good in the preseason but could suffer unless Jason Campbell gets it figured out.
- Terrell Owens, BUF – The slide stops for Owens who is down from 14. Hard to endorse an aging player who isn’t practising on a team that has a quarterback playing horribly in the preseason. Should he be lower?
- Eddie Royal, DEN – Big mover, up eight spots. With Marshall sliding, Royal figures to get an increased role in Denver. Doesn’t hurt that number one pick Knowshon Moreno isn’t likely to contribute much early.
- Braylon Edwards, CLE – The drops have continued but he’s worth the risk here.
- Donnie Avery, STL – Apparently a quick healer but may struggle early in the season.
- Bernard Berrian, MIN – Brittle Berrian moving down.
- Donald Driver, GB – Old Man Driver keeps on producing.
- Santonio Holmes, PIT – Not sold on him but maybe this is the year he puts it together.
- Domenik Hixon, NYG – Aside from Hakeem Nicks, the team’s other receivers have struggled in the preseason, cementing Hixon’s starting position, likely for the entire year.
- Anthony Gonzalez, IND – Why do I have the feeling he’s in line for just over 1,000 yards but only three TD? Oh, that’s it. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark are excellent red zone options.
- Jericho Cotchery, NYJ – Based on talent, he should be higher. Based on situation, this seems right.
- Josh Morgan, SF – Big move up from 40. With rookie Michael Crabtree holding out and free agent addition Brandon Jones injured, Morgan figures to get plenty or targets.
- Kevin Walter, HOU – Defense looks bad which should translate into plenty of come from behind passing in Houston.
- Devin Hester, CHI – Could bust out but still not a complete wide receiver.
- Torry Holt, JAX – Likely in line for plenty of catches but no longer a deep threat and won’t provide many yards after the catch.
- Ted Ginn Jr., MIA – Miami’s number one wideout by default.
- Steve Breaston, ARI – If only the Cards had traded Boldin…
- Justin Gage, TEN – Nate Washington’s injury could translate into a larger role early in the season.
- Lee Evans, BUF – Owens is down and so is Evans. All the way from 28.
- Patrick Crayton, DAL – Up from 52. Dallas isn’t sold on Miles Austin or Sam Hurd and Williams has a bit of injury and performance risk. Could be a solid sleeper.
- Lance Moore, NO – He doesn’t get touches unless Colston and Reggie Bush are hurt and they were in 2008. What’s the story in 2009?
- Laveranues Coles, CIN
- Kevin Curtis, PHI – Up from 46. Rookie Jeremy Maclin hasn’t shown much and Curtis figures to benefit.
- Michael Jenkins, ATL – Loss of Harry Douglas is offset by addition of Tony Gonzalez.
- Chansi Stuckey, NYJ – Seems to have nailed down the starting spot opposite Cotchery.
- Chris Henry, CIN – Wild tales out of Cincinnati suggest he’s turned it around. Time will tell but the talent is definitely there.
- Nate Burleson, SEA – Has assumed the starter’s role and brings plenty of big play ability. Unfortunately, wildly inconsistent.
- Steve Smith, NYG – Looks like playing out of the slot is his niche.
- Devery Henderson, NO – Might lose playing time to Robert Meachem or might usurp Lance Moore. Worth taking a shot on but don’t reach too far.
- Earl Bennett, CHI – Keep reading he was Jay Cutler’s favorite target at Vanderbilt. Does that mean DBs will give him a free ride?
- Chris Chambers, SD – Never been a fan of this perennial fantasy tease.
- Laurent Robinson, STL – Rams have been impressed with his talent and performance. So were the Falcons two years ago but maybe the light has come in.
- Mark Clayton, BAL – Mason’s return coupled with a hamstring injury causes a 20 spot drop from 33.
- Isaac Bruce, SF – Figures to get plenty of targets early but likely to see a reduced role when Jones returns from injury and Crabtree learns the playbook (provided he signs).
- Davone Bess, MIA – Played reasonably well when given an opportunity in 2008.
- Nate Washington, TEN – Could miss a few weeks of the regular season with a hamstring injury.Bryant Johnson, ARI – Big, strong and fast but plays soft. Nothing to get excited about here.
- Chaz Schilens, OAK – Was impressive early in camp before breaking his foot which will cause him to miss 2-4 regular season games. He was Oakland’s best receiver prior to the break. Could be an excellent late season addition to your roster.
- Robert Meachem, NO – Reports are positive but who is he taking touches away from?
- Muhsin Muhammad, CAR – Increasingly likely that he splits time with Dwayne Jarrett.
- Javon Walker, OAK – Don’t drink the juice. Big name well past his prime.
- Mark Bradley, KC – Could be productive. Also could get cut.
- Limas Sweed, PIT – Figures to carve out a role as the team’s third wideout and potential red zone target.
- Jeremy Maclin, PHI – Rookie hasn’t done much to expect him to contribute early.
- Deion Branch, SEA – Will the Seahawks pay a backup wide receiver, that they gave up a 1st round pick for, $5-million a season? Maybe not.
- Demetrius Williams, BAL – Talented but never healthy.
- Michael Crabtree, SF – Hopefully he is better at learning the team’s playbook than the NFL’s rookie salary slotting system.
- Percy Harvin, MIN – Frankly, why is everybody reaching for this guy?
- Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK – A few long TD will likely be all he contributes.
By: Dave Stringer — September 1, 2009 @ 7:15 am
Our Fantasy Football tight end rankings update features a number of significant moves at the top of the rankings. Taking over the number one ranking is Antonio Gates, who looks healthy and ready to rebound from a surprisingly mediocre 2008 campaign. Greg Olsen of the Bears jumps to number five while Jeremy Shockey and Vernon Davis move up with reports indicating both have shown more dedication than last year.
- Antonio Gates, SD – Now the top ranked TE but more based on Jason Witten’s situation than any news regarding Gates.
- Jason Witten – DAL – Reports out of Dallas indicate that Martellus Bennett is looking too good not to play and that may eat into Witten’s opportunities. Not significantly but enough to move him out of the top spot.
- Tony Gonzalez, ATL – Moves up due to potential of Atlanta offense and loss of Harry Williams in the slot.
- Dallas Clark, IND – Moves down due to concerns over his injury history.
- Greg Olsen, CHI – Olsen moves into the top five as he looks ready to bust out in Chicago with Jay Cutler now behind center.
- Owen Daniels, HOU
- Dustin Keller, NYJ – Biggest mover going from 12 to 7. Reports indicate that Keller has looked fantastic in Jets training camp while no wideout has emerged as the starter opposite Jerricho Cotchery.
- John Carlson, SEA
- Kellen Winslow, TB
- Zach Miller, OAK – Raiders wideouts are horrendous and Miller figures to benefit.
- Visanthe Shiancoe, MIN – Up to 12 with Brett Favre likely to provide more stable play at the quarterback position. Could once again put up a surprising number of TDs.
- Brent Celek, PHI – Moves up a couple of spots with Philly offense looking solid and team’s top three widoeuts all Smurfs.
- Tony Scheffler, DEN – If new head coach Josh McDaniels throws to the tight end as much as he did in New England, Scheffler has no chance of a breakout campaign.
- Kevin Boss, NYG – Moving down a spot due to concerns that he will lose playing time to rookie 3rd round pick Travis Beckum. Still has upside as he figures to be team’s top red zone threat (six TDs in 2008).
- Jeremy Shockey, NO – Reports out of New Orleans suggest he has his head on straight and is focused. Worth a late round flyer but don’t reach for him.
- Vernon Davis, SF – Ditto Shockey.
- Randy McMichael, STL – Marc Bulger has to throw to somebody and right now McMichael is the most experienced receiving threat on the team.
- Heath Miller, PIT
- Bo Scaife, TEN
- Ben Watson, NE
- Martellus Bennett, DAL – Bennett has looked solid in Dallas and the team will apparently use two-TE sets more frequently to get him on the field.
- Anthony Fasano, MIA
- David Martin, MIA
- L.J. Smith, BAL
- Donald Lee, GB
- Brandon Pettigrew, DET
- Jerramy Stevens, TB
- Marcedes Lewis, JAX
- Chase Coffman, CIN – Bengals rookie moves into the top 30 and has solid prospects for the future.
By: Dave Stringer — August 31, 2009 @ 7:15 am
The running back position is most likely to make or break your fantasy team and it’s time for an update to the rankings. There have been significant developments since our last rankings but not necessarily based on the players themselves. Certain roles have been changed from what was expected to materialize as training camp started and a few teams have had very poor offensive showings thus far. Both developments have caused a significant shake-up starting at the 7th ranked running back and continuing down into the mid-twenties.
- Adrian Peterson, MIN – No change at the top. He’s the running back most likely to have a phenomenal season.
- Michael Turner, ATL
- Matt Forte, CHI – Moves up a notch with Chicago’s offense looking good and Orlando Pace solidifying the left tackle position.
- Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX – Down a notch on concerns about the Jaguars ability to consistently move the ball.
- DeAngelo Williams, CAR
- LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
- Frank Gore, SF – Moves up more due to concerns with other backs than his situation. Rookie Glen Coffee has looked good but Gore still figures to get major touches.
- Steven Jackson, STL – The Rams get Donnie Avery back earlier than expected.
- Steve Slaton, HOU – He’s going to lose touches in the red zone to Chris Brown but likely won’t come off the field much otherwise.
- Marion Barber, DAL – Concerns at wide receiver and it now seems certain that the Cowboys will give significant touches to Felix Jones.
- Brandon Jacobs, NYG
- Ronnie Brown, MIA
- Brian Westbrook, PHI – Moves down due to concerns about his health and with the back injury to right tackle Shawn Andrews.
- Chris Johnson, TEN
- Clinton Portis, WAS – Most significant drop in the rankings. Portis is still talented but major issues in Washington at QB, WR and along the OL plus head coach Jim Zorn has installed Ladell Betts as the third down back.
- Pierre Thomas, NO – Up a couple spots based on the Saints offensive potential.
- Ryan Grant, GB
- Joseph Addai, IND – Major upside if he gets the goal line work and stays healthy.
- Kevin Smith, DET – Looks like rookie Matthew Stafford could start at QB soon which almost certainly limits Smith’s upside.
- Darren McFadden, OAK – If only there were realistic TD opportunities in Oakland.
- Marshawn Lynch, BUF
- Reggie Bush, NO
- Thomas Jones, NYJ
- Willie Parker, PIT
- Jonathan Stewart, CAR
- Derrick Ward, TB – Down six spots as it now appears he will split time evenly with Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams, plus the Bucs offense looks to have limited potential.
- Larry Johnson, KC – Unless he gets better as a receiver, he may spend time sitting in a pass heavy offense.
- LenDale White, TEN
- Jamal Lewis, CLE
- Cedric Benson, CIN – Looks like he will carry a heavy load in Cinci so he moves up four spots.
- Ray Rice, BAL – Holding on to the top role in Baltimore so he’s up from 36.
- Felix Jones, DAL – Indications in Dallas are he will split time with Barber.
- Fred Jackson, BUF
- Chris Wells, ARI
- Julius Jones, SEA – With Edge on board, Jones drops five spots.
- Leon Washington, NYJ – He’s here but he has some upside. Great flex option.
- Tim Hightower, ARI
- Knowshon Moreno, DEN – Expected take off appears to be delayed.
- Earnest Graham, TB – If it is indeed a three-man rotation in Tampa, Graham also suffers.
- Donald Brown, IND
- Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG
- Fred Taylor, NE
- Jerious Norwood, ATL
- Edgerrin James, SEA – 8-12 carries a game and goal line work are in his future.
- Darren Sproles, SD
- Ricky Williams, MIA
- Rashard Mendenhall, PIT
- Le’Ron McClain, BALMichael Bush, OAK
- Glen Coffee, SF – Looking great but hard to move him up.
- Sammy Morris, NE
- Chester Taylor, MIN
- Willis McGahee, BAL
- LeSean McCoy, PHI
- Jamaal Charles, KC – Sleeper potential if he is employed in a receiving role and the Chiefs are playing from behind (very likely).
- Brandon Jackson, GB
- Chris Brown, HOU – Looks like he’s in line to get the goal line carries.
- Cadillac Williams, TB – Feel good story or is he just being showcased?
- Maurice Morris, DET
- Kevin Faulk, NE
- Correll Buckhalter, DEN
- Mewelde Moore, PIT
- Shonn Greene, NYJ – Has looked good but what exactly is his role?
- James Davis, CLE
- Greg Jones, JAX
- Rashad Jennings, JAX
- LaMont Jordan, DEN
- Kolby Smith, KC – Maybe he takes over LJ’s role if there are any issues in K.C.
By: Dave Stringer — August 26, 2009 @ 10:53 am
With fantasy football drafts and auctions now upon us, it’s time to update our quarterback rankings. The rankings haven’t changed dramatically since our last update, with most changes being a position or two at most. The biggest news is that it now appears Matthew Stafford has an above average chance to open the season as the starter in Detroit and Byron Leftwich now appears likely to start in Tampa Bay.
- Tom Brady, NE – No change at the top.
- Drew Brees, NO
- Philip Rivers, SD – Moves up a notch with all of the Chargers skill position players healthy.
- Aaron Rodgers, GB – Down a notch due to concerns about offensive line.
- Kurt Warner, ARI
- Peyton Manning, IND
- Donovan McNabb, PHI
- Matt Hasselbeck, SEA – Moves ahead of Romo and Schaub because receiving corps looks good and Seattle running game looks awful.
- Matt Schaub, HOU
- Tony Romo, DAL
- Jay Cutler, CHI
- Carson Palmer, CIN
- Matt Ryan, ATL – Moves up mostly due to others dropping. Still not sold that Ryan is due for a breakout fantasy season.
- David Garrard, JAC – With Troy Williamson appearing the best option to start alongside Torry Holt, Garrard moves down the list.
- Matt Cassel, KC – Moves lower due to poor preseason and concerns about offensive line.
- Ben Roethlisberger, PIT – Big Ben moves up a couple of spots with the running game perhaps not being as formidable as in prior years.
- Jason Campbell, WAS
- Trent Edwards, BUF
- Chad Pennington, MIA
- Jake Delhomme, CAR
- Eli Manning, NYG
- Brett Favre, MIN – Biggest mover with a five spot leap. Percy Harvin looks exciting and Bernard Berrian figures to provide solid deep threat not to mention the running game is exceptional.
- Joe Flacco, BAL
- Matthew Stafford, DET – Rookie now appears ready to open the season as the starter and has the arm to take advantage of Calvin Johnson‘s deep ball skills. Buyer beware in leagues that takes points away for interceptions.
- Brady Quinn, CLE
- Kerry Collins, TEN
- Kyle Orton, DEN – Drops a few notches after a horrible training camp thus far.
- JaMarcus Russell, OAK
- Shaun Hill, SF – Was annointed the starter by head coach Mike Singletary but hasn’t looked good and won’t get much help from 1st round pick WR Michael Crabtree, if any at all.
- Byron Leftwich, TB – Looks like the Bucs starter but not very exciting as a fantasy option.
- Mark Sanchez, NYJ
- Marc Bulger, STL – Down a couple spots to 32 with Donnie Avery‘s status in doubt for the first couple of games.
Current backups who could produce if given an opportunity include Sage Rosenfels, Matt Leinart, Chris Simms, Daunte Culpepper, Derek Anderson, Alex Smith and Vince Young.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 10:40 am
Steelers running back Willie Parker was a surprise 15 game starter for the team in 2005, despite being a former undrafted free agent. Parker seemed to come out of nowhere and the combination of his blazing speed and a solid offensive line produced great results considering the cost to acquire him.
He followed that 172 fantasy point season with 267 points in 2006, good enough for fifth overall in the fantasy RB rankings. However, he fell back down to earth in 2007 averaging just under 11 points per game and 10 points per game in 2008, when he missed five games due to injury.
Because he isn’t very shifty or very good at making tacklers miss, Parker has always relied on his speed and there are questions about how much speed he has lost although he is only 28 years old. He relies on his offensive line more than most backs and was injury prone in 2008.
With 2008 1st round pick Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore, who was surprisingly productive last year, in reserve, there are questions about how much Parker will be used in 2009. He struggled in short yardage, continues to be a poor receiving option and the offense seemed to be more in sync at times last year when Moore was getting the reps.
As with all things fantasy football, it’s about value. Parker owners should consider acquiring Mendenhall as a handcuff if the price is right, but it could mean using two picks within the first ten rounds to secure both players. Parker generally comes out of the gate fast and he will have this year in order to secure his job. Look for Parker to remain marginally productive and produce a few solid outings but he’s a fantasy backup in ten team leagues and a low end starter in 12 team leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — August 25, 2009 @ 4:05 pm
The Seattle Seahawks have signed former Cardinals and Colts running back Edgerrin James to a one year contract. The signing of James comes after the team struggled to run the ball in the pre-season, a trend that began last year. The deal is reportedly for one year and $2 million.
The 31-year old James is coming off the worst year of his illustrious 10 year career, with just 514 yards rushing and three TD. He lost his starting job to Tim Hightower part way through the season before reclaiming it and providing steady, if not spectacular, production during the team’s run to the Super Bowl.
With James on board, the Seahawks are expected to release T.J. Duckett and enter the season with Julius Jones, diminutive Justin Forsett and James as the team’s three running backs. His signing further magnifies general manager Tim Ruskell’s questionable decision not to pick a running back in this year’s rookie draft despite the team’s questionable depth at the position.
Fantasy Impact
It all starts up front with the offensive line and unfortunately for Seattle, they have already lost three-fifths of what was expected to be their starting offensive line. Left tackle Walter Jones is out indefinitely due to arthroscopic surgery on his left knee, center Chris Spencer is likely to miss one or two games with a slight tear in his right quadriceps and left guard Mike Wahle was released after failing his physical. If Spencer and Jones are not available on opening day, the team will go with a very inexperienced offensive line to start the season.
James is unlikely to have signed in Seattle without receiving at least some assurance that he would receive a reasonable amount of playing time. Unfortunately, his average yards per rush over the last three seasons were 3.4, 3.8 and 3.9 so it is clear that his big play ability has been extremely diminished. He has adapted his game to become more of an inside, straight ahead runner who avoids negative plays.
Look for James to back up Jones but get 8-12 carries per game and be the team’s short yardage option, a role he lost to Hightower in Arizona, and perhaps a late game closer. James is, at best, a solid handcuff to Jones but an interesting one because of Jones’ history of injuries and ineffectiveness.
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