FFT's Blog O' Fantasy Football

Moving Up

• Carson Palmer, Bengals – I was ready to write Palmer off for 2009 after he averaged 229 yards passing over the first 6 weeks of the season with 8 TD against 7 interceptions. However, he was on target this week against the Bears, going 20 of 24 for 233 yards and 5 TD. It looks like he’s back.
• Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, Jets – It’s not so much that Jones and Greene each had a monster game against the pathetic Raiders this week with each going over 100 yards (Jones – 121, Greene – 144) and Greene scoring 2 TD to 1 for Jones. The big news is that Leon Washington suffered a broken leg and is likely out for the year. Look for Jones to get increased touches and for Greene to be used slightly less than Washington was. However, with the Jets committed to the run, Greene figures to be a decent flex option in games against suspect run defenses.
• Miles Austin, Cowboys – Just another game with well over 100 yards receiving and multiple TD. Austin turned 8 targets into 6 receptions for 171 yards and 2 TD this week, bringing his 2 game totals to 16 receptions for 421 yards and 4 TD. Reports out of training camp were that Austin was getting separation from coverage but having difficulty catching the ball. Looks like he’s found his confidence and arrived as the Cowboys top wide receiver.
• Cedric Benson, Bengals – Benson got his revenge on the Bears and their defense, whom he accused of cheapshotting him at practice during his time in Chicago, with 189 yards and a TD on 37 carries. After 7 weeks, Benson is the NFL’s leading rusher with 720 yards on the ground and is on pace to finish with an astounding 1,645 rushing yards.
• Vincent Jackson, Chargers – It’s time to crown Jackson as a top 10 fantasy wideout, if not top 5. In 6 games, he’s hit double digit fantasy points five times and is on pace to finish with over 210 fantasy points. Basically, it’s solid production on a consistent basis. What’s not to like?
• Ricky Williams, Dolphins – Coming off his 92 total yards, 3 TD performance this week against the Saints, Williams is now the 10th ranked fantasy running back. Between now and Week 16, the Dolphins face seven defenses ranked 20th or lower against the run as well as the Jaguars (12th) and Titans (10th) which means you can plug Williams in as a solid flex option or even as a low end RB2.
• Owen Daniels, Texans – Owning Daniels in 2007 and 2008 was extremely frustrating for his fantasy owners as he churned out 1,630 receiving yards but a measly 5 TD. That’s all changed in 2009 as Daniels is in pace to finish with over 1,100 receiving yards and 11 TD, which would likely result in him being the top ranked tight end. With the Texans passing offense clicking and the running game struggling, Daniels production should stay steady for the remainder of the season.
• Vernon Davis, 49ers – I’ve been down on Davis for years but this is the week that turned the tide. With Alex Smith on in relief, Davis had 7 receptions for 93 yards and 3 TD in the 2nd half, all from Smith. Over the last 4 games, Davis has been targeted 37 times, resulting in 22 catches for 283 yards and an amazing 6 TD. Oh yeah, he’s also the top ranked fantasy tight end on a points per game basis.
• Tony Romo, Cowboys – The Romo equation this year has been solid against bad D’s and average or worse against good ones. However, he put up a solid game this week against the Falcons with 311 yards passing, 3 TD and no picks. There are a number of solid pass defenses on the schedule for the Cowboys (Eagles – 5th, Giants – 1st as well as the Redskins’ 3rd ranked pass defense twice) but the emergence of Austin could change the Romo equation in those contests.
• Michael Crabtree, 49ers – Nothing too exciting in Crabtree’s first game, with 5 receptions for 56 yards. However, he was only targeted 6 times, 3 of his receptions resulted in first downs and he played extensively, coming out for only a few plays. Basically, Crabtree was impressive in his debut, his conditioning is good and there’s little reason to doubt that the 49ers will be increasing his role in the coming weeks.
• Mike Bell, Saints – After Pierre Thomas struggled in the 1st half this week against the Dolphins, Bell got the call in the 2nd half and put up 80 yards on 12 carries. He seemed to run with much more authority than Thomas, regularly taking on linebackers and bouncing off them for extra yardage. With neither player contributing much in the passing game, the Saints coaching staff will likely continue to go with the hot hand running the ball and this game showed that Thomas will get the hook if he struggles.
• Alex Smith, 49ers – Playing exactly half the game, Smith went 15 of 22 for 206 yards and 3 TD. Incumbent starter Shaun Hill passed for 209 yards in Week 1 but hasn’t topped 200 yards since, averaging just 157 passing yards a game. He’s passed for only 5 TD in 6 games. Head coach Mike Singletary is saying he needs to see the film before deciding who starts next week. However, with the team having lost 3 of 4 with the lone win coming against the also-ran Rams, look for Smith to be behind center next week against the Colts.
• Jason Snelling, Falcons – With Jerious Norwood having a subpar season and now out with a hip injury, Snelling came to the rescue for the Falcons this week against the Cowboys with 68 yards rushing on 7 carries and a reception that went for 10 yards. Snelling’s rushing totals topped those of Michael Turner and he displayed good moves and speed on his runs. With Turner struggling to regain his form of 2008 and Norwood also struggling, there’s a reasonable chance that Snelling will continue to get 6-8 touches a game.

Moving Down

• Roy Williams, Cowboys – Austin has clearly established himself as Tony Romo’s go-to wide receiver and the Cowboys best big play threat. On the other side of the equation is Williams, who still doesn’t seem to be on the same page as Romo and even when he is, he seems to drop the ball or make a play of little consequence. Hard to believe a player with his considerable physical ability produces so little.
• LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers – The good news is that the Chargers fed him the rock in close numerous times this week. The bad news is that the only time LT found the end zone the play was nullified by a penalty. Until the Chargers improve in short yardage, LT’s upside is limited.
• Greg Jennings, Packers – Jennings is still a solid receiver but the bottom line is that after scoring 21 TD over the last 2 seasons, he has lost his knack for finding the end zone. Defenses are focusing on shutting him down and the Packers have had to rely on a short passing game due to their inability to pass protect. Jennings isn’t producing big plays and he is one the biggest fantasy disappointments at wide receiver thus far in 2009.
• Steven Jackson, Rams – Another game, another 100-plus total yards and again no trips to the end zone. Jackson is now up to 164 touches and 804 total yards on the season without a score.
• Anquan Boldin, Cardinals – Boldin’s stat line looks decent enough with 3 catches for 75 yards. However, he was clearly struggling and by the end of the game had no chance of generating any separation in man coverage. It looks like the high ankle sprain he suffered last week will result in him having to take at least a week off at some point in order for him to recuperate.
• Larry Johnson, Chiefs – Another frustrating performance this week for LJ owners. Against a suspect Chargers run defense, he managed only 49 yards on 16 carries which actually RAISED his yards per carry average to 2.7. Touchdowns on the year – nada. At some point, the rebuilding Chiefs have to go to Jamaal Charles or even Kolby Smith (just reinstated from the PUP) to see what they have in those two players.
• Jay Cutler, Bears – The interception barrage continues for Cutler who is now up to 10 picks on the year and on pace for a whopping 27 by season’s end. Simply put, owning Cutler in leagues that penalize interceptions is a big negative on his value. His propensity for interceptions and the potential for bad weather games late in the season make owning him as your starting quarterback extremely risky.
• Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs – Sure, he had 7 fantasy points this week on 11 receiving yards and a TD. Bowe now had 301 receiving yards and 4 TD in 6 games. It says here that at some point, the touchdowns are going to stop coming and he’s going to be a 50 yard a game guy. That’s my prediction. Nothing more, nothing less.
• Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants – He didn’t have a good game this week against the Cardinals with only 32 yards on 12 carries and earned the wrath of the coaching staff by losing a key fumble in the 4th quarter and then taking an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the team’s last gasp final drive. At that point, he got yanked. Whether that’s the end of the message or was just the beginning will be determined next week against the Eagles.
• Mario Manningham, Giants – Another sub-60 yard outing for Manningham this week, making it 6 such outings in 7 games this year. That and the fact he dropped a long pass this week that would have been a touchdown are the downsides. On the plus side, he is averaging over 7 targets a game this year and could have significantly more fantasy points if he were making the most of his chances.
• Tashard Choice, Cowboys – With all 3 Cowboys backs healthy this week, Choice had a reception for 23 yards and didn’t get a single carry, the first time that has happened in his career. He’s clearly third in the pecking order which makes him useless in standard leagues unless Marion Barber and/or Felix Jones gets hurt. Granted, both players have shown a propensity to miss time over the last 2 seasons.
• Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins – Ginn seemed to be on the verge of a breakthrough after his 11 recepetion, 108 yard performance against the Colts in Week 2. Since then, he’s managed just 5 receptions for 77 yards and a TD. This week, he caught 2 balls on 8 targets for 16 yards and suffered a couple of bad drops. If anything, he seems to have regressed.