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NFL Draft – Instant Fantasy Analysis: Michael Floyd


By: — April 27, 2012 @ 1:06 am

1.13 Cardinals – WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

It is hard to argue that Floyd isn’t in position to be the top-producing rookie WR in 2012 as he will operate opposite Larry Fitzgerald. It also should go w/o saying that he will likely be pushed harder than he ever has by one of the hardest-working players in league as well. It is also fairly obvious that Kevin Kolb will also benefit because he should not feel obligated to force throws to Fitzgerald. As it stands right now, Floyd – who was reportedly higher on some draft boards than Justin Blackmon – should also rate higher than his 2012 draft classmate on fantasy draft boards this summer as well. His dynasty value also receives a nice little boost as well from the #42 ranking I gave him a couple of weeks ago. I’ll optimistically project him right now as a high-end WR3 candidate in redraft leagues with 55 catch, 800-yard and six TD upside this season.


NFL Draft – Instant Fantasy Analysis: Ryan Tannehill


By: — @ 12:58 am

1.08 Dolphins – QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

Tannehill might as well be this year’s Jake Locker and Christian Ponder – a quarterback currently better outside the pocket than inside (Locker) that gets pushed up in the draft because of the position he plays (Ponder). Although some will say this is a reach (and I won’t disagree), Tannehill couldn’t ask for a better situation in terms of familiarity since new OC Mike Sherman was also his head coach at Texas A&M. People will lazily say he’ll need time to learn the offense, but Tannehill needs to be on the sidelines this season in order to be put in a position to succeed as Miami attempts to secure receiving talent over the next year. Significant fantasy production cannot really be expected from Tannehill until at least 2014 as the Dolphins attempt to find their own version of Greg Jennings’ in this Green Bay-like offensive scheme while also furthering the rookie quarterback’s education after just 19 college starts.


NFL Draft – Instant Fantasy Analysis: Justin Blackmon


By: — @ 12:52 am

1.05 Jaguars – WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State

Blackmon compares more favorably with Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Bowe – two receivers drafted in the twenties of their respective drafts – than A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Regardless, Jacksonville has now provided Blaine Gabbert with some legitimate weapons with this pick and its free agent signings (Laurent Robinson, Lee Evans). Blackmon is incredible after the catch and could possibly lead the Jags in receptions in his rookie season. Although he takes a statistical hit working with Gabbert (instead of Sam Bradford), it is also way too early to close the book on Gabbert. Blackmon probably deserves low-end WR3 fantasy consideration this summer in 12-team leagues.


NFL Draft – Instant Fantasy Analysis: Trent Richardson


By: — @ 12:48 am

1.03 Browns – RB Trent Richardson, Alabama

Dubbed by several draft analysts as the best running prospect in the draft since Peterson, Richardson is one of the rare running backs worth a top 10 overall selection in April. While Richardson is a high-level prospect, he lands in a division where at least two of the Browns’ three rivals are annually in the top five against the run each season. With that said, it is hardly a fantasy exile as Cleveland has allowed a declining Jamal Lewis and a slightly above-average Peyton Hillis to be fantasy standouts when neither back possessed the ability Richardson does right now. Two of Richardson’s best traits as a runner are that he rarely ever goes down on first contact and possesses incredible vision – aspects that make the AP comparisons somewhat appropriate. While Richardson isn’t exactly an accomplished receiver, he is more than capable and should be able to post at least 30 receptions in his rookie season. As for the rushing attack in Cleveland, the Browns are one left guard away from having one of the better left sides in the NFL.

Considering the division in which he will be playing in and his current supporting cast, Richardson should fall just short of RB1 territory in redraft leagues this summer despite the fact he may be one of the 2-3 backs that may push 300+ carries. In 12-team leagues, he should go in the first half of Round 2.


NFL Draft – Instant Fantasy Analysis: Robert Griffin III


By: — @ 12:44 am

1.02 Redskins – QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor

Whether we like it or not, Griffin bears a lot of likeness to a young Michael Vick with slightly less open-field elusiveness but better accuracy as a passer. His running ability will be put to good use in Mike Shanahan’s offense. In Shanahan’s system, quarterbacks are often asked to bootleg off play-action and throw on the run – a perfect fit for Griffin. The last time Shanahan worked with a gifted strong-armed mobile QB that was at or near his prime was Steve Young from 1992-1994. In those seasons combined, Young ran for 1,237 yards and 14 touchdowns and that was during a time when the idea of a running quarterback wasn’t nearly as accepted as it is today. In all likelihood, RG3 will not approach Cam Newton’s level of success in his rookie season simply because he isn’t entering a situation in which he should be asked to carry his new offense to the same degree Newton had to.

In redraft leagues, Griffin is entering a situation in which he has an outside shot to finish as a top 12 QB THIS YEAR. To be safe, he should be drafted as a QB2 in 12-team leagues, but 3,200+ passing yards, 500+ rushing yards and 6-8 rushing scores are entirely possible benchmarks for him to reach.


NFL Draft – Instant Fantasy Analysis: Andrew Luck


By: — @ 12:41 am

1.01 Colts – QB Andrew Luck, Stanford

Most, if not all, NFL personnel people believe Luck is one of the best and most NFL-ready QB prospects to come out in years, so his skill is not in question. However, new HC Chuck Pagano suggests Indy will be a physical running team in the coming years, which flies a bit in the face of what new OC Bruce Arians built his reputation on in Pittsburgh. And there is also the issue of his likely supporting cast, which will feature a declining Reggie Wayne, injury-prone Donnie Avery and Austin Collie with no viable threat at TE. Now, Collie has proven he can be a lead receiver at times, but the Colts’ offense is in the midst of a massive rebuilding job nonetheless. Luck’s upside is so high that he is probably worth over-drafting in dynasty leagues in order to get elite fantasy production from him in 2-3 years, but understand that his immediate success is far from guaranteed as the Colts restock the shelves.

In redraft leagues, he starts the summer as a mid-level QB2 in 12-team leagues thanks mostly to his skill and underrated athletic ability. He has enough of a supporting cast that fantasy owners should expect a top 20 finish at his position in 2012.


2011 NFL Mock Draft: Round 1 – Version 4.0


By: — April 29, 2011 @ 12:57 am
Filed under: NFL Draft

Round 1

Editor’s Note: This mock was submitted prior to the beginning of the NFL Draft.

Note: Listed by pick, team, player, position, and college. Underclassmen indicated by a single asterisk (*) for juniors and a double asterisk (**) for third-year sophomores.

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn*
Rarely this late in the process is the first pick still such an open-ended question, but with Carolina unable to start contract negotiations due to the lockout, there will be some element of drama right down to the wire tonight. Despite this, the nearly unanimous opinion is that Newton will be the pick, and the reports suggest that Carolina has spent the most time looking into him. As discussed even back when Nick Fairley or Da’Quan Bowers were topping mocks, eight of the last ten drafts have started with a quarterback, and the pressure to follow that path is immense if you don’t have an obvious franchise quarterback on your roster. QB Blaine Gabbert is still in consideration, but Newton appears to have a higher ceiling and there is no denying he is a winner after winning a JUCO and FBS National Championship over the last two years. I would have the non-quarterback finalists in this order: DL Marcell Dareus, WR A.J. Green, and CB Patrick Peterson.

Previous pick: Newton

2. Denver Broncos – Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU*
I still believe Peterson is the best player in the draft and don’t see a corner with his skill falling out of the top five. He is a unique talent as a big, speedy, playmaking corner and as a returner in the mold of Charles Woodson. This draft is deep at defensive linemen, which makes Peterson a better value at this spot.

Previous pick: Peterson

3. Buffalo Bills – Marcell Dareus, DL, Alabama*
Even though Chan Gailey seems impressed enough with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to use this pick instead to help his struggling defense, I get the feeling he and the Bills could cave to the pressure of drafting QB Blaine Gabbert. If Cam Newton falls here, he is a no-brainer; otherwise, they are probably looking at defense. A lot of people are mocking OLB Von Miller in this spot, and while that makes some sense, a linebacker at the third pick is a big risk. Peterson and Dareus are the two safest picks on defense. Not only is Peterson not available in this mock, but if he were, the front seven would remain a bigger need than the secondary. The Bills can’t decide if they are a base 3-4 or 4-3, but Dareus is a good fit for either.

Previous pick: Dareus

4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia*
I previously mocked QB Blaine Gabbert here because I believe Carson Palmer is serious about not returning to Cincinnati and owner Mike Brown has previously had no problem pulling the trigger on a quarterback early in the draft. However, I now think Brown will play chicken with Palmer and see which quarterback prospects fall to them in the second round. Even without the acrimony, Palmer has been falling apart the last few years, and it would be a smart move to bring in a potential successor this year with an early pick. As I now project them to wait on a quarterback, WR A.J. Green is the easy pick. With Terrell Owens gone and Chad Ochocinco seeming likely to follow him, or taking his talents to the soccer pitch, the Bengals land the top wide receiver prospect in the draft.

Previous pick: QB Blaine Gabbert

5. Arizona Cardinals – Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Many mocks have Miller gone by this pick, and that is a possibility, but even the fifth pick is unusually high for a linebacker—even one regarded as perhaps the safest pick among the elite prospects in the draft. QB Blaine Gabbert has gained a lot of steam in mocks, and he should be here if Cincinnati doesn’t blink at Carson Palmer, but QB Ryan Mallett may remind head coach Ken Whisenhunt of another super-sized quarterback he helped develop when he was offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh. However, this division is winnable if the Cardinals bring in a veteran starter, and Arizona should be high on the list of desired destinations for most of the top free agents and trade targets. They already have a couple of developmental prospects I don’t think Whisenhunt is ready to give up on yet, so acquiring a veteran passer and addressing their other needs seems like their best strategy.

Previous pick: Miller

6. Cleveland Browns – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama*

While some of Cleveland’s young receivers have potential, Jones is an elite talent who gives QB Colt McCoy the big-play target he currently lacks. It would be hard not to address the defensive line, but this draft is deep up front on defense and I can’t see Jones—or WR A.J. Green if he falls—getting by Cleveland.

Previous pick: WR A.J. Green

7. San Francisco 49ers – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri*
I have some doubts Gabbert will fall this far, but I have far more doubt that CB Patrick Peterson, who is frequently mocked here, will make it out of the top five. I think Peterson and Gabbert are the top two players on Jim Harbaugh’s draft board, and as I said in my last mock, I think he would love to get his hands on Gabbert. Physically, Gabbert is a similar prospect to Andrew Luck, with the prototypical build, a nice arm, and some good athleticism. I’m not saying Gabbert is as good a prospect as Luck, but I think Harbaugh could see in him someone with the raw materials he needs to build a franchise quarterback.

Previous pick: CB Prince Amukamara

8. Tennessee Titans – Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Despite the departure of Jeff Fisher, GM Mike Reinfeldt has said the team still plans to follow through with their previously announced intention to trade or cut Vince Young. With Reinfeldt getting an extension, he appears to have emerged from the changes in Tennessee as the man with the most power over personnel decisions. Locker’s valuation differs wildly, but I don’t see him getting out of the first round. Without free agency this year, teams as bare at quarterback as Tennessee is will feel additional pressure to address that position earlier in the draft. I think Locker’s intangibles will factor heavily for a team looking for a leader who has proven he can weather tough times. If they chose to leave the first round with Rusty Smith as their only quarterback under contract, this would be the floor for OLB Von Miller. It’s not likely that he makes it this far, but a stud outside linebacker could be their biggest need. It is popular to mock DT Nick Fairley here, but addressing the edges seems a bigger concern. While they went with DE Derrick Morgan in the first round last year, both of last year’s starters (Jason Babin and Dave Ball) are UFAs. Jacob Ford may also be, depending on the results of the new CBA. In this mock, all the 4-3 ends are still on the board, so that could be the Titans’ plan if they decide against a quarterback. Despite Kenny Britt’s latest legal problems, I don’t think they go wide receiver here, although the run-blocking of WR Julio Jones would be welcomed by RB Chris Johnson, if Jones fell here.

Previous pick: Locker

9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith, OT, USC*
Three of the Cowboys’ top four ends are free agents, so it will be hard to pass on all the great five-technique ends still available, and I could see DE J.J. Watt as an alternative here. However, the offensive line needs help, and keeping Tony Romo off the turf to utilize all their weapons has to be a priority. Tyron Smith is raw but an incredible physical specimen who could immediately replace Marc Colombo at right tackle, working his way to the left side in the future. He alleviated concerns about his playing weight being well under 300 lbs in college when he showed up to the combine at 307. No way CB Patrick Peterson falls this far, but don’t rule out Jerry Jones trading up if he’s in love with Peterson. However, I expect them to fix secondary issues by going after free agent Nnamdi Asomugha, who played under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan in Oakland.

Previous pick: Smith

10. Washington Redskins – Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
This will be a panic pick by head coach Mike Shanahan if he can’t move up to get QB Blaine Gabbert or if QB Jake Locker doesn’t fall here. Addressing the defensive line or going with WR Julio Jones, as I did in my previous mock, would be a smarter pick, but I think Shanahan will worry about waiting to see what quarterback falls to him in the second round. He has backed himself into a corner after creating irreconcilable differences with QB Donovan McNabb and after learning what the rest of the NFL already knew about backup QB Rex Grossman: He is too inconsistent to be a starter. Having already failed at going the veteran route with McNabb, Shanahan seems to have little choice but to draft a new quarterback this year. While Ponder has gained momentum as a first-round pick in the mock draft community—and I agree he is probably the most NFL-ready quarterback right now—I think his unspectacular arm strength and injury history would be enough to push him out of the first round in most other years. But this isn’t a typical year, and Washington has some unusual pressure on them to find a quarterback in this draft.

Previous pick: WR Julio Jones

11. Houston Texans – Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri**
New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips gets a player with the potential to be another DeMarcus Ware for their new 3-4 defense. I’ve been going back and forth on whether that player is Smith or Robert Quinn, but I’m settling on Smith. CB Prince Amukamara seems to be the most likely alternative if they don’t add a pass rusher.

Previous pick: OLB Robert Quinn

12. Minnesota Vikings – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn*
After bringing in Craig Johnson from Tennessee to be their new quarterbacks coach, there was speculation that Vince Young could follow him. I think the Vikings would prefer to start fresh at the position, and new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave helped develop a rookie quarterback to quick success with Matt Ryan in Atlanta. However, the only option in this mock would be QB Ryan Mallett, and while I’ve previously stated my belief that Mallett’s talent will win out over his alleged character concerns, I believe this team is done with any sort of drama at the position and will be influenced more than other teams by their choice’s baggage. I also believe they are the top contender to acquire Donovan McNabb and get right back to being a playoff contender with a veteran solution like that. It appears some of the shine is off the Lombardi Award winner after his MVP performance in Auburn’s national championship victory, but if Fairley falls this far, the Vikings will be sure to sweep him up. With the Williams Wall crumbling, between Pat’s age and Kevin finally about to serve a four-game suspension for the StarCaps mess, addressing defensive tackle will be a big priority this offseason—even bigger than defensive end, which seems to be the most popular alternative (other than quarterback) among most mock drafts.

Previous pick: Fairley

13. Detroit Lions – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
I think if Amukamara falls here, he is a no-brainer pick. I’ve gone back and forth on whether he will make it this far, and if he doesn’t, I think the Lions go offensive tackle, likely Anthony Castonzo, as I picked in my previous mock.

Previous pick: OT Anthony Castonzo

14. St. Louis Rams –Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina*

It’s a disappointment that WR Julio Jones isn’t available here, but the Rams move on to address their lack of an elite pass rusher, and I think they will be happy with the choices they have at wide receiver in the second round. This could be where the freefall for DE Da’Quan Bowers stops, but I think he is too similar a player to the Rams’ current defensive end, Chris Long. Quinn is more of a pure speed pass rusher, better suited at right defensive end. A benign brain tumor he has dealt with since high school and his missing this past season as part of the agent scandal that rocked the UNC program make Quinn a risky pick. However, his freakish athleticism and pass rush ability make him worth the gamble. Steve Spanuolo likes flexibility in his defensive line, which also makes ends Cameron Jordan or Adrian Clayborn potential fits here, as well as Bowers. But in addition to my previous comments on Bowers, a team that plays most of their games on turf may also be additionally concerned, for right or wrong, about his knee.

Previous pick: DE Aldon Smith

15. Miami Dolphins – Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama*
Sometimes a pick becomes so obvious and unanimously agreed upon that everyone starts to look for a reason to change their mind; then it ends up being the guy we all originally had slotted there in the first place. Ingram is exactly that guy and I’m going to stick with him here. Expected to be the strength of the Dolphins offense in 2010, the running game was extremely disappointing behind Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Both are free agents and past their prime, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both gone and Ingram or Mikel LeShoure as the new face of the Miami backfield. Others have strayed from this pick because of concerns about Ingram’s knee. I previously stated this is a bit of a smokescreen—likely started by the Patriots, who would love Ingram to fall to them—and I still believe in Ingram as a first-round talent. The intriguing alternative I see here is QB Ryan Mallett. Miami took a long, hard look at him and this might be the last spot in the first round, barring a trade, that makes sense for him. Alas, I still can’t pull the trigger on him going here. I think this spot is too high for any interior line prospects, and teams are confusing Mike Pouncey with his brother a bit in how high they are rating him. So if the pick isn’t Ingram or Mallett, I’d expect a defensive prospect.

Previous pick: Ingram

16. Jacksonville Jaguars – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
While it’s always difficult to predict what GM Gene Smith will do in the draft, he’s been very forthcoming about his intent to focus on improving the defensive side of the ball. A shutdown corner is one possibility, but with the value Smith places on character, I think Jimmy Smith scares him off. Continuing to address the pass rush seems the most likely option. Bowers’ freefall could stop here, but with a clean record off the field and a tireless motor on it, Kerrigan is a perfect fit.

Previous pick: DE Da’Quan Bowers

17. New England Patriots (via Oakland Raiders) – Cameron Jordan, DE, California
The versatile and fundamentally sound Jordan is the ideal Belichick player, but he may not fall this far. If he does, the Patriots use the pick they acquired for Richard Seymour to get his long-term replacement. Tweener Ryan Kerrigan, another classic Belichick type of guy, could have been this pick. I could also easily see this pick and the next flipped.

Previous pick: Jordan

18. San Diego Chargers – J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin*
Watt has the prototypical build for a five-technique end and rose up draft boards after showing some surprising ability to penetrate as a pass rusher. I think the Chargers are all about the front seven in this draft, and if one of the tweeners like Robert Quinn, Aldon Smith, or Ryan Kerrigan falls here, any one of them could easily be the pick as well.

Previous pick: Watt

19. New York Giants –Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
GM Jerry Reese is hardcore advocate of drafting the best player available, so this pick could go a number of ways. I think offensive tackles are being underrated in most mocks, including this one, so one should be an excellent value here. The order the offensive tackles will come off the board remains highly debatable, but with ideal measurables, four years of quality starting experience, and enough athleticism, most agree Castonzo is the safest pick because he has the highest floor. The ties of head coach Tom Coughlin to Boston College don’t hurt, either. I’ve gone back and forth with Castonzo and OT Nate Solder at this pick. I don’t see Solder as an elite talent; he doesn’t seem to have the footwork to protect the blindside. However, many respected opinions like those of Rick Gosselin and Mike Mayock have him going in the first, so I’ll fit him in later. I see this as the ceiling for G Mike Pouncey, as well, and the interior line is a need—and Castonzo did some work at guard at the Senior Bowl, so his potential flexibility could help his value. You can also never rule out the Giants taking a defensive lineman. Their free agent additions to the interior haven’t panned out as well as hoped, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see DT Corey Liuget go here.

Previous pick: OT Nate Solder

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson*
This is a great draft for the Bucs to address their need at defensive end. Fortunately this scenario offers them a couple of choices (Bowers and Adrian Clayborn) in a freefall. Tampa Bay would probably like more of a pure speed pass rusher, and it was rumored that tweener Justin Houston was a target here. But a failed drug test will probably push him out of the first round.

Previous pick: DE Ryan Kerrigan

21. Kansas City Chiefs – Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor
The increase of 3-4 defenses in the league has put a premium on true nose tackles. Ron Edwards and Shaun Smith formed a serviceable tandem during the Chief’s year of transition, but both are free agents, and Taylor has risen up draft boards after an impressive Senior Bowl week—although the expected red flags are now surfacing. Concerns about his feet and workout habits sound like smokescreens and I expect Taylor to remain in the first round.

Previous pick: Taylor

22. Indianapolis Colts – Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
The need and importance of offensive tackle, along with the quality of candidates who should still be available here, seem to make addressing tackle at this spot a no-brainer. I made my opinion known on Solder under the Giants pick above, but I see him as a good fit here. The Colts have shown interest in OT Derek Sherrod, who I had here in my last mock, so I could see him as another likely pick. I think there is zero chance they take a quarterback with this pick.

Previous pick: OT Derek Sherrod

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
I’ve had OT Gabe Carimi projected here since my first mock, but I’m now coming around to thinking Andy Reid addresses a bigger need with Smith here. Reid isn’t scared off by character concerns, although Smith has quite a laundry list, so it wouldn’t be a surprised to see him fall out of the first round. Unlike linebacker, which may be their biggest need, corner is one of the positions Reid isn’t averse to addressing in the first round (Lito Sheppard in 2002, when Reid went DB with the Eagles’ first three picks). I could still see Carimi going here if they don’t take Smith. Carimi lacks the footwork to be a left tackle, but the right side is just as important in Philadelphia, with the left-handed Michael Vick under center. With a nasty attitude and physical similarities to Jon Runyan, Carimi will remind some of the man Winston Justice has been unable to successfully replace at right tackle.

Previous pick: OT Gabe Carimi

24. New Orleans Saints –Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
The run defense needs help, and with no playmaking linebacker a good value here, New Orleans will look to strengthen the front four. Although regarded as one of the top overall prospects entering the year, Clayborn saw his stock drop after a disappointing senior season. And he didn’t do himself any favors by not participating in the Senior Bowl. Concerns about the Erb Palsy in his right arm gained some legitimacy with the limited strength he displayed in the bench press despite his short arms. I believe Clayborn could fall out of the first, but in this part of the draft, a team with need up front could see him as a value pick. His flexibility to slide down inside should be appealing to DC Gregg Williams.

Previous pick: DT Corey Liuget

25. Seattle Seahawks –Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois*
I don’t see Charlie Whitehurst as a franchise quarterback. And Seattle fans should be really alarmed if head coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider already feel that way, too, after supposedly putting in the due diligence to trade a third-round pick for him. While I’ve tinkered with mocking a quarterback here previously, I now think there is no way the Seahawks give up on Whitehurst already. They have more than enough holes to fill elsewhere, despite their backing into the playoffs last year. This could also be a landing spot for G Mike Pouncey.

Previous pick: QB Ryan Mallett

26. Baltimore Ravens – Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi
With only Lardarius Webb and Domonique Foxworth under contract, and with the latter coming off a blown knee last year, cornerback is the Ravens’ biggest need. But with CB Jimmy Smith off the board, I’m not sure they reach for CB Aaron Williams. Efforts to plug the position with free agents haven’t been successful and they need an influx of talented youth, but there are deep second and third tiers for them to choose from later in the draft. If they don’t address corner here, they likely finally resolve their strained relationship with Jared Gaither by selecting Sherrod, a player they expressed interest in at the Senior Bowl and combine. One way or another, I think they will part ways with Gaither when the lockout ends.

Previous pick: CB Jimmy Smith

27. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame*
The severe hamstring injury that ended Rudolph’s season early helps the Falcons get their eventual replacement for Tony Gonzalez. With the future Hall of Famer around for another year, Rudolph has time to fully recover and be eased into a feature role as he learns from watching one of the best. If not Rudolph, this pick will be about speed—either an edge rusher, which I don’t see value at here, or a wide receiver to spread the field for Roddy White, though they could still find good options at the position in the second round.

Previous pick: Rudolph

28. New England Patriots – Mike Pouncey, OG/C, Florida
Although it’s an impossible exercise to predict Bill Belichick’s moves, expectations are that edge rusher and offensive line will be addressed among their windfall of picks in the first two rounds. The value looks best at defensive end with their first pick, but I could go either way here. Pouncey seems like the value pick over the outside linebackers, so I give him the nod over Brooks Reed or Akeem Ayers here. O-lineman Danny Watkins is another possibility. The 26-year-old Canadian and former firefighter has the versatility and blue-collar work ethic that appeal to Belichick.

Previous pick: OLB Justin Houston

29. Chicago Bears – Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
In my last mock, I bought into the growing sentiment that DT Marvin Austin would go here. The Bears lost Tommy Harris, DC Rod Marinelli has previously brought the best out of players with some baggage, and GM Jerry Angelo only knows defense. Then a highlight reel of Jay Cutler’s Greatest Hits (on him by the opposition) played through my head and I realized they have to do something to protect the most-sacked quarterback in the league. Offensive line coach Mike Tice reportedly loves Carimi, although this is probably the absolute floor for him, so he might not even make it this far.

Previous pick: DT Marvin Austin

30. New York Jets – Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple*
The biggest strength of this draft may be 3-4 defensive end prospects, so the Jets should find a great value here at a position where age and depth on their squad are a concern. Although he remained under the radar in the MAC, Wilkerson has been a beast at defensive tackle this season. And he has the agility and the ability to penetrate, which should make him a great fit at end for the Jets.

Previous pick: Wilkerson

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
While usually adhering to a policy of drafting the best player available over need, the Steelers may see those two strategies converge this year. The end is near for stalwart DE Aaron Smith after suffering season-ending injuries in three of his last four years and having turned 35 this year. After an up-and-down season for Heyward, a dominating performance in the Sugar Bowl reminded teams of why he was one of the top prospects as a five-technique end at the beginning of 2010. Tommy John surgery in January has prevented him from working out and is hurting his draft stock, but it isn’t a long-term concern.

Previous pick: Heyward

32. Green Bay Packers –Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
The depth of the Packers was highlighted on their way to winning the Super Bowl despite a number of key injuries, so they definitely have the luxury of taking a gamble here. I think Austin has made his way back in to the first round and he has some potential as a flexible player in a 3-4 front.

Previous pick: OLB Brooks Reed


2011 NFL Mock Draft: Round 2 – Version 4.0


By: — @ 12:55 am
Filed under: NFL Draft

Round 2

Note: Listed by pick, team, player, position, and college. Underclassmen indicated by a single asterisk (*) for juniors and a double asterisk (**) for third-year sophomores.

33. New England (via Carolina) – Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona
After showing he can play with his hand off the ground at the combine, I’m not sure he makes it this far. I’ve mocked him in the first round and now here to the Pats. This guy is a perfect fit for head coach Bill Belichick.

34. Buffalo – Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
After passing on the position in the first round, the Bills add an athletic quarterback, perfect for Chan Gailey to develop, with the arm strength to cut through the Buffalo winter wind.

35. Cincinnati – Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas*
I know he isn’t ideal for new OC Jay Gruden, but if (when) this pick happens, who won’t nod and say, “Yep, that’s about right” and look forward to watching this partnership develop.

36. Denver – Jarvis Jenkins, DT, Clemson
After passing on Dareus in the first round, John Fox addresses the team’s biggest need: defensive tackle. Jenkins played in the shadow of DE Da’Quan Bowers at Clemson, but Jenkins significantly contributed to Bowers’ breakout year. It wouldn’t be a shock to hear Jenkins’ name called tonight.

37. Cleveland – Allen Bailey, DL, Miami
After taking a receiver in the first round, the Browns must address their defense here. A freakish athlete, Bailey has struggled to translate that to success on the field, but he could sneak into the second round on potential alone. New DC Dick Jauron could get the best out of him.

38. Arizona – Danny Watkins, OL, Baylor
As discussed under their first round pick, I think Arizona is all in for going the veteran route at quarterback and staying with their current developmental prospects at the position. I previously mocked OL Marcus Cannon here, but after some conflicting reports about cancer, it now appears he has non-Hodgkins Lymphoma. Although it’s fortunately treatable and he was given an excellent prognosis for full recovery, he is unlikely to get drafted.

39. Tennessee – Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA*
Ayers bounced back from a disappointing combine with a solid pro day and his stock was rebounding, but questions of his football IQ could possibly drop him out of the first round again. I see this as his floor, and the Titans will be happy to plug his talent and versatility into a linebacking corps that needs to be more productive.

40. Dallas – Aaron Williams, CB, Texas*
There are some questions as to whether Williams will have to convert to safety at the next level, but Dallas can use help at both spots and will be happy to land him here if they don’t trade up for Patrick Peterson.

41. Washington – Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech**
I’m a lot more comfortable with this pick now after mocking the Redskins to draft a quarterback in the first. Williams reminds me of Clinton Portis, and I bet Mike Shanahan sees the similarities as well.

42. Houston – Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Once considered a first-round pick before injuries derailed his season, Dowling’s value has rebounded. But he is still likely to fall into the second round, where Houston should be ecstatic to find him.

43. Minnesota – James Carpenter, OT, Alabama
The top of tier two among offensive tackle prospects, Carpenter is a nice developmental prospect for a Minnesota O-line that isn’t what it once was.

44. Detroit – Orlando Franklin, OL, Miami*
Franklin hasn’t gotten much recognition, but he’s a tough and versatile lineman. He doesn’t have the upside to work the left tackle position, but he does have excellent guard or right tackle potential.

45. San Francisco – Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
The combine bench press champ does not have the prototypical nose tackle size, but Paea is a true interior player. Head coach Jim Harbaugh is very familiar with him from their days in the PAC-10 together, and current nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin is a free agent.

46. Denver (via Miami) – Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA*
The top-rated safety in a weak class at the position is a nice fit here for the Broncos, who have a glaring need at the position.

47. St. Louis – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh*
I previously mocked Baldwin as the last pick of the first round, so this is quite a drop. But he would make a nice consolation prize for the Rams when they miss out on Julio Jones with their first pick. They should have plenty of good options at the position even if Baldwin is gone.

48. Oakland – Stefan Wisniewski, C, Penn State
Al Davis fooled us in the first round last year with the very non-Al Davis pick of Rolando McClain, which everyone thought was the right pick. McClain didn’t pan out as expected and now Davis will never second-guess himself again. Instead of going for some flashy measurables, Davis could bring Wisniewski (who actually isn’t a bad selection in terms of value and need) into the Oakland fold, where his uncle and long-time Raider, Steven Wisniewski, is an assistant coach.

49. Jacksonville – Brandon Harris, CB, Miami*
Concerns about Harris’ size in a deep cornerback class will push him to the second, where his fall stops with the cornerback-needy Jags.

50. San Diego – Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia*
A positive drug test should see Houston fall at least to the second round after having been strongly considered as a first-round pick.

51. Tampa Bay – Shareece Wright, CB, USC
Rumor is the recent legal problems of star CB Aqib Talib could knock him off the team. Injuries and academic ineligibility prevented Wright from putting together much of a resume, but he has been a riser in the postseason.

52. New York Giants – Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois*
A value pick here for GM Jerry Reese, who would have a new power back to replace Brandon Jacobs.

53. Indianapolis – Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
There’s lots of talk of the Ginger Maestro going in the first. I don’t buy it. If he falls to the second, the Colts, who have looked into him a bit, could finally have a legitimate backup and developmental prospect behind Peyton Manning.

54. Philadelphia – Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois*
After blowing up at the combine, Wilson had a less impressive pro day. Because of concerns about his neck, he falls out of the first round and someone gets a steal with his versatility and athleticism.

55. Kansas City – Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland*
Hands will keep the speedy Smith out of the first round, but his speed will help open things up for Dwayne Bowe.

56. New Orleans – Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
Expected to be a first-round pick before blowing out his ACL late in the season, Carter could be a steal here.

57. Seattle – Will Rackley, G, Lehigh
The small-school prospect has gotten a lot of buzz since his big Pro Day.

58. Baltimore – Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville
If they don’t address the position in the first round, the Ravens will likely hoard. The unheralded Patrick doesn’t get much press, but he is a second-round talent.

59. Atlanta – Jabaal Sheard, DE, Pittsburgh
The Falcons need to address defensive end somewhere early in the draft. Sheard emerged from the shadow of injured teammate Greg Romeus in 2010 to be the Big East Defensive Player of the Year.

60. New England – Shane Vereen, RB, California
A newer model of Kevin Faulk.

61. San Diego (via New York Jets) – Titus Young, WR, Boise State
The wide receiver situation remains a bit uncertain in San Diego.

62. Chicago – Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami
Hankerson’s postseason should push him into the second round, and GM Jerry Angelo loves players from The U.

63. Pittsburgh – Ben Ijalana, OL, Villanova
The versatile small-school prospect is a nice fit to bolster Pittsburgh’s line. He has the size of a guard, but the arm length to possibly play tackle.

64. Green Bay – Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky*
A strong postseason has the stock of the versatile Cobb rising. He’s a great fit in many roles, and the Packers wide receiver corps could thin quickly with the aging of Donald Driver and James Jones likely leaving via free agency.


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