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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — April 4, 2009 @ 9:52 pm
The Giants finally decided to move on without Plaxico Burress. With the troubled wide receiver’s legal issues not going to be sufficiently resolved prior to the draft, the team decided they could no longer wait to decide his fate.
Burress has been a major piece of the Giants offense since signing with the team as a free agent prior to the 2005 season after five years with the Steelers. His monster season in 2007 helped propel the team to a Super Bowl championship.
The obvious assumption from this move is that the Giants will make a run at one of Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin or Chad Johnson. However, such a move would not be consistent with the overall philosophy of general manager Jerry Reese, who has used free agency to bring in marginally priced veterans to plug holes. A more likely option would be the team bringing back Amani Toomer or signing former Ram Torry Holt and also addressing the position in the draft.
Look for the Giants to take a receiver in the 1st or 2nd round of this year’s draft. They currently have one pick in the 1st round in addition to two picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. If a receiver starts falling, they have the ammunition to move up to get them.
Fantasy Football Impact
Quarterback Eli Manning obviously suffers with the loss of his number one receiver but the numbers suggest Burress’ absence could be overstated. The assumption that Manning’s production suffered with Burress out of the line-up was more fantasy myth than fact. He averaged roughly 14 points per game with Burress in the line-up or on the sideline. However, Manning did benefit from having four games against the NFC West in 2008 when he averaged over 20 points per game against teams from that division. Perhaps that is indicative of his ranking as a fantasy quarterback. With or without Burress, Manning is a solid backup on your fantasy roster.
Wide receivers Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham and Sinorice Moss figure to benefit from Burress’ departure as well as tight end Kevin Boss. Boss figures to benefit the most as he now becomes the team’s top receiving target in the red zone. Smith seems best suited as a number two or three receiver while Manningham is likely the only receiver currently on the roster with the potential to develop into a top wideout. Hixon has flashed some big play ability but does not seem capable of filling in as a number one receiver.
Barring a trade for Edwards, Boldin or Johnson, look for the team to rely on its running game more in 2009. However, the team struggled to score with Burress out of the lineup so the touchdown count for Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Danny Ware might suffer with this move. Jacobs remains a solid number two fantasy option but a breakout season now seems less likely.
By: Dave Stringer — March 27, 2009 @ 8:45 am
The Bears, who recently lost projected starting right tackle John St. Clair to the Browns, signed former Brown right tackle Kevin Shaffer to a reported three-year contract. The teams have essentially swapped right tackles with the Browns ending up with the better player for their system.
Nonetheless, the signing is a key one for the Bears because of the implications it has for the organization in this year’s rookie draft. With only the untested Frank Omiyale as an option at right tackle prior to Shaffer’s signing, the team would practically have been forced to use a high draft pick on an offensive tackle one year after selecting left tackle Chris Williams in the first round.
Fantasy Football Impact
The Bears first option was obviously re-signing St. Clair but this move fills a huge hole for the team, potentially allowing them to use their first round pick at the wide receiver position where they are desperate for depth. This is a solid fallback option and the journeyman Shaffer figures to provide better run and pass blocking than a rookie would. Matt Forte and Kyle Orton’s prospects look a little better today.
By: Dave Stringer — March 24, 2009 @ 7:44 am
Despite starting every game for the Dolphins during his first two years in the league, Samson Satele was traded to the Raiders. The writing has been on the wall for Satele over the last few weeks, when comments from general manager Bill Parcells surfaced that he wasn’t pleased with the center’s ability to handle the mammoth nose tackles employed by the Patriots (Vince Wilfork) and Jets (Kris Jenkins). And, as everybody knows, once the Big Tuna decides you’re not cutting it, it’s time to pack your bags.
Satele’s release continues Parcells dramatic roster turnover of the Dolphins as he brings in players that fit the description of what he wants at each position, which generally means bigger is better. The former 2nd round pick was well regarded by the previous regime of Randy Mueller and Cam Cameron but wasn’t as big or as physical as Parcells prefers his offensive linemen to be. For reference sake, consider the Cowboys massive offensive line prior to Parcells leaving Dallas.
The Raiders thought enough of Satele to move their 6th round pick in this years draft to the Dolphins and also swap 4th rounders, which allows Miami to move up 18 spots in that round. Nonetheless, this trade shapes up as a decent one for Oakland considering they acquire a former 2nd round pick with two years of starting experience who fits their scheme well and who carries the league minimum salaries over the final two years of his rookie contract.
Fantasy Football Impact
The Raiders have struggled to find a center for a number of years going through Barret Robbins, Adam Treu, Jake Grove, Jeremy Newberry and John Wade. It would be a major surprise if Satele isn’t the team’s starter on opening day and he figures to provide stability at the position for the next two years.
The team still needs to solidify a starting offensive line that currently lists starters from left to right as Khalif Barnes, Robert Gallery, Satele, Cooper Carlisle and Cornell Green. Green’s roster spot is in jeopardy courtesy of domestic battery charges coupled with the team’s acquisition of Barnes and former Broncos right tackle Erik Pears in free agency. With 2007 3rd round pick Mario Henderson also in the mix at tackle, this unit figures to improve on its performance in 2008. That would bode well for the impressive running back trio of Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas.
By: Dave Stringer — March 23, 2009 @ 9:15 pm
Desperate for help at wide receiver, the Browns brought David Patten back into the fold in an effort to shore up depth at the position. With Donte Stallworth’s availability in doubt given his pending legal issues, Patten’s signing provides insurance at the position and also increases the likelihood of the team releasing Stallworth and perhaps moving Braylon Edwards in a trade.
Productive in 2007 with 54 receptions for 792 yards and three touchdowns, Patten was relegated to a backup role last year. He was inactive for 11 of the New Orleans Saints’ last 12 games due to the emergence of Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem.
Patten’s main role in Cleveland figures to be that of a backup and mentor to the team’s young receivers, particularly the enigmatic Edwards, who has been linked in trade rumors involving the Giants.
Fantasy Football Impact
Patten still possesses deep speed but can’t be expected to hold up as a productive starter for 16 games. However, he can show young wideouts like Edwards, Josh Cribbs and 2008 7th round pick Syndric Steptoe how to be professional and productive in the league.
By: Dave Stringer — March 20, 2009 @ 8:18 pm
The Eagles and fullback Leonard Weaver finally agreed to contract terms, ending the former Seahawks first foray in free agency. Plenty of teams were interested in the multi-dimensional player but it appears, as is generally the case with fullbacks around the league, no teams were willing to sacrifice much salary cap space on the position. ESPN is reporting the deal is for one year and $1.75-million with the opportunity to earn additional $750,000 in incentives.
Weaver’s skills are perfectly suited as a fullback in the West Coast offense but it remains to be seen whether Eagles head coach Andy Reid will utilize Weaver in a meaningful way. With the Seahawks, Weaver was employed as a receiver out of the backfield and as a runner and blocker in short yardage.
The Eagles struggled mightily in short yardage last season and Weaver figures to help out in that area. However, Reid’s preference is to run three wide receiver sets so Weaver’s role in the base offense will likely be to spell Brian Westbrook and contribute in short yardage as a blocker for Westbrook and running behind incumbent fullbacks Dan Klecko and Kyle Eckel, provided they are on the team’s roster come opening day. Although Weaver isn’t a dominant blocker, he’s certainly serviceable and provides a better combination of agility and power than any player the team employed in that role in 2008.
Weaver’s presence on the roster also provides the team additional flexibility on draft day given the many roles he can play. The team doesn’t necessarily have to use picks on both the running back and tight end positions, given Weaver’s running skills and usefulness as a check down option in the passing game.
Fantasy Football Impact
With the team returning Westbrook and its top five wide receivers in DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, Hank Baskett, Jason Avant and Reggie Brown and tight end Brent Celek a solid option as a receiving tight end, it is almost impossible to imagine Weaver getting more than a handful of touches per game. If Westbrook continues to struggle in short yardage, Weaver could vulture some rushing touchdowns but even that is difficult to imagine.
Nonetheless, Westbrook will be 30 by the time the season starts and he does have an injury history. With the only other backup option being the underwhelming Lorenzo Booker, Weaver figures to be in the mix as Westbrook’s handcuff in 2009 provided the team doesn’t expend a first day draft pick on the position in the draft.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 12:32 pm
The Ravens signed former Eagles tight end L.J. Smith this week to a one-year contract reportedly worth $1.5-million. Smith had visited the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons but couldn’t agree to terms with either team despite their obvious needs at the position.
The 2003 2nd round pick has solid receiving skills but never truly developed the way the Eagles expected he would. In six seasons, he has topped 600 yards only twice and has been injury prone over the last two seasons. He had 37 receptions for 298 yards and three scores in 2008 but lost his starting position by season’s end to Brent Celek.
Baltimore benefits from Smith’s inability to secure a long term deal and picks up a veteran backup for Todd Heap, who has had his own injury issues over the last few seasons and was ineffective in 2008, despite not missing a game.
Fantasy Football Impact
All indications are that Heap and Smith will share the tight end workload in Baltimore. In anything other than deep leagues, knock both Heap and Smith off your draft list. The tight end’s main role in the Baltimore offense is to block so even without Smith’s signing, Heap would barely crack the top 20. Unless one of the two suffers an injury in the preseason, both players are waiver wire fodder for fantasy purposes in 2009.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 7:38 am
Reports this week indicated that the Panthers were in trade discussions with the Patriots involving franchised defensive end Julius Peppers. Peppers has made public his desire to play for a new franchise in 2009, preferably one that employs a 3-4 defense which would allow him to line up as a pass rushing outside linebacker.
The theory was the Patriots could use his services in their 3-4, they have an extra 2nd round pick courtesy of the Matt Cassel trade and the Panthers need the additional cap space that moving Peppers and his $16.7-million 2009 salary would provide. Connect the dots and voilà, Peppers to the Pats.
Unfortunately, there a number of hiccups with this scenario. First off, Peppers has not signed his franchise tender. This has two implications – only players under contract can be traded and teams are not allowed to discuss trades for players that are not under contract.
Second and more importantly, the Panthers are not about to accept a below market offer for Peppers, particularly when their fan base is aware of the price the Vikings paid last year to obtain Jared Allen from the Chiefs. Minnesota gave up their 1st round pick (17th overall) and two 3rd round picks to obain Allen. It is even arguable that Peppers is more talented than Allen, although Allen plays with a higher motor, is more consistent and has posted better sack totals over the past two years (30.5 sacks for Allen to 17 for Peppers). It would be difficult for Panthers management to argue that Peppers’ value is the same as Cassel which is essentially what such a trade would suggest.
Finally, the Panthers don’t have a replacement on their roster for Peppers and don’t have a 1st round pick this year to help them in this regard. The Panthers traded their 2009 1st round pick to the Eagles last year in order to select offensive tackle Jeff Otah. Charles Johnson had the second most sacks on the team last year with six but is not in the same class as Peppers and would likely see his sack total decrease without Peppers lining up opposite of him.
By: Dave Stringer — March 18, 2009 @ 12:17 pm
The Cleveland Browns signed free agent offensive tackle John St. Clair to a three year contract reportedly worth up to $9-million. The Browns recently released starting right tackle Kevin Shaffer, restructured Ryan Tucker’s contract to the veterans minimum and signed former Seahawks lineman Floyd Womack.
St. Clair manned the left tackle position last year for the Chicago Bears but is a versatile lineman capable of filling in at any position along the offensive line except for center. Look for him to start at right tackle for the Browns in 2009. He is a journeyman, and better at run blocking than in pass protection.
Fantasy Football Impact
Cleveland Browns
Shaffer was a former left tackle forced to play on the right side after the team acquired Joe Thomas in the 2007 draft. He is not a physical player and it appears the team wanted a more physical presence at the postion. St. Clair will provide that but this isn’t a move that provides a significant upgrade for the team. This move will have minimal impact on a Browns team that struggled offensively in 2008, failing to score an offensive touchdown the final 6 weeks of the season, and traded away tight end Kellen Winslow. Currently the team does not possess a proven receiving tight end, quality third receiver or a solid option to incumbent starting running back Jamal Lewis. Throw in starting wide receiver Donte Stallworth’s legal problems and the Browns look like a fantasy mess heading into 2009.
Chicago Bears
Leave it to Bears general manager Jerry Angelo to blow another veteran personnel decision. With John Tait’s retirement and St. Clair’s free agent defection, the team’s current starting offensive tackles figure to be 2008 1st round pick Chris Williams and former Falcon and Panther Frank Omiyale, who have combined to start one game in the NFL. With an aging Olin Kreutz at center and journeymen guards in Roberto Garza, Josh Beekman and Dan Buenning, the interior of the team’s offensive line is not equipped to make up for deficiencies at tackle.
The Bears will have to address their offensive line but there is little talent left in the free agent market so the team may have to use an early draft pick in this area and start another young player in 2009. This doesn’t bode well for running back Matt Forte replicating his rookie performance or for Kyle Orton progresssing at quarterback.
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