The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 97
A Projections Primer Part 2: QBs
7/19/07

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

The Gut Check has decided to provide a historical overview of fantasy stats that will help owners avoid the common pitfall or projecting player performance—extreme over-and under-valuation of players. Last week, yours truly profiled the running back position. This week the focus is quarterbacks.

Historical Stats For Fantasy Passers

The key components one must consider when projecting quarterback performance:

• Total Fantasy Points
  
• Attempts
  
• Completion Percentage
  
• Passing Yards
  
• Passing Touchdowns
  
• Rushing Yards
  
• Rushing Touchdowns

Pretty straightforward, but the way many people project stats they don’t bother to view how each stat influences the other. For instance, one isn’t demonstrating adequate knowledge of the position if one predicts a passer to sling it for 4000 yards but sets the attempts so low, the average yardage per attempt is 7 to 8 yards higher than the historical average or the completion percentage doesn’t jibe with the yardage figures. If one views the best performances with these stats, one should get a stronger idea of how to project performance.

Fantasy Points—These point totals are for a standard scoring fantasy league: 1 point per 20 yards passing, 4 points per touchdown pass, 1 point per 10 yards rushing and 6 points per touchdown:

The top 30 fantasy performances since the advent of the 16-game season predictably mirrors the averages just shown. There are only seven quarterbacks with prolific seasons from the 80’s that make this list. As a testament to Dan Marino’s greatness as a passer, he still rules the fantasy kingdom by the slightest of margins—coincidentally over a player that is likely to get cut just three years after posting two of the five best ever fantasy seasons for a quarterback in this era. The Gut Check would rather have a healthy Culpepper than a David Carr or Joey Harrington. Please don’t tell yours truly that Randy Moss is that much better than Andre Johnson and Roy Williams. The Gut Check is a Moss fan and believes New England’s new #6 is the arguably best deep ball receiver in the history of the game, but he knows the Pats new receiver is nowhere as versatile a player than either of the go to receivers that Carr and Harrington once had while starters for their respective teams. In other words, Culpepper may not be as great as his stats but he’s much better than the current public perception.

The average attempts for these top 30 performances are nearly 543 passes. Dan Marino’s 623 in 1986 were the most, and Steve Young’s 461 were the least. Young’s fantasy performance was just a few points less than Marino’s despite the huge difference in attempts. This is due to Young’s insanely high completion percentage of 70.28%. Young had nearly 800 fewer passing yards, but his completion percentage contributed to a high touchdown rate (more completions-more first downs-more touchdowns) and his 7 rushing scores put him within two total scores of Marino. But as much as Young and Randall Cunnngham were the precursor to mobile QBs one watches today, one has to be careful about projecting high rushing totals into an all-time great season.

Only five quarterbacks on this all-time great list had more than 5 rushing scores in a season—two belonged to Young, two to Culpepper, and one to Cunningham. In fact, only 22 times since 1978 did a QB rushed for more than 5 scores and fewer than ¼ of these rushing performances put the signal caller on this hallowed list. Only 9 QBS from the list had over 400 yards rushing. The combined total of average passing and rushing attempts from this list is 595 (543 passing-52 rushing) touches and the average QB from his list ran the ball once for every 10 passing attempts.

But does the rate of passing attempts naturally dictate a great fantasy season or is this like attempts for RBs and not necessarily the case? The table below is a list of the thirty-most passing attempts ever made in a 16-game season. The players highlighted on this table are also among the top thirty from the previous list ranking the all-time fantasy scorers for a season. Although there were fourteen quarterbacks within the top 50 performances only seven of the thirty attempts leaders also made the all-time fantasy-scoring list. So the situation is similar to that of runners: quarterbacks have a greater chance of earning fantasy points with more attempts, but it is not an absolute by any stretch.

The all-time fantasy point leaders averaged nearly 60 fewer throws in a season than the attempts leaders, but their completion percentage is three points higher. This doesn’t seem to be a significant difference because the yardage difference is minimal between the two lists. Yet the difference bears out with touchdowns and fantasy points. Fantasy point leaders averaged an additional 8 scores—32 points in 4 points per passing td leagues—which constitutes roughly half the fantasy point differential between the two lists (65.5).

Still, nearly 16 of the 30 passers on this list had seasons equivalent to a top-five fantasy performance during this decade, and 27 of the 30 passers on this list had seasons equivalent to a starter in the top-12. This seems like an obvious correlation—much like running backs—but one must be careful to note the career completion percentage for a player in a situation where he will likely have to attempt a lot of passes. Take a look at Jon Kitna. The Bengals version of Kitna, a team lacking solid receivers—Chad Johnson wasn’t even starting yet—had a relatively poor fantasy season with a not-so-coincidentally bad, 53.87% completion rate. In contrast, the Mike Martz-Motor City version of Kitna sporting a 62.42% rate, a team with Roy Williams playing to his potential, had nearly 1000 more passing yards and 9 additional scores.

So The Gut Check believes a higher passing percentage has a factor, but the question is how much? To find out, here is a list of the top 30, 16-game performances for completion percentage. Although the stats bureau’s minimum attempt figure is 225 (14 attempts per game), the Gut Check set his minimum to 300 (18 attempts per game), which is still quite low for the more prolific passing offenses in the modern era.

Pct.—Although all-time accuracy figures don’t correlate with all-time fantasy points—only 6 all-time scorers appear on this accuracy list—there are 9 more QBs with at least 300 points. This means 50% of the list would be among the average top-7 fantasy signal callers during this decade and the top-5 QBs in the previous two decades. Another 5 QBs would be within the top-12 in this decade.

Clearly accuracy is an indicator of consistently good, season performances, however the most accurate fantasy QBs don’t match the performance of the most productive or the most prolific (attempts).

There’s no coincidence the most accurate performers of all time come from quarterbacks in west coast offenses—18 out of 30 QBs on the list started for a WCO. But 9 of the 15 300+ fantasy-point scorers play in vertical offenses. This doesn’t mean one should ignore QBs on west coast offenses, but considering the offensive system is important. One shouldn’t project Matt Hasselbeck as a top-five QB unless he suddenly acquires an elite receiver on the level of Terrell Owens or Anquan Boldin in a trade to pair with Deion Branch. Hasselbeck may be a solid starter, but historically his offense limits him from becoming an elite performer unless he has great receiving talent surrounding him. Montana and Young had the great Jerry Rice as well as John Taylor and Terrell Owens providing a vertical threat. Brett Favre had good receivers, but like John Elway, Favre had a knack for throwing the deep ball among the best in history and whether or not you like to make fun of John Madden, the Packer’s QB will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. It is even more apparent when one combines passers in vertical offenses with a high completion percentage, the fantasy points come easily: Marino, Manning, Cunningham and Culpepper in Minny, and Warner all fit this profile.

So far it’s clear the best fantasy performers at this position have a high attempt rate (nearly 30 per game) and a solid, if not spectacular completion percentage (at least 58%). These players are generally in productive offenses that employ a vertical attack with at least one elite receiver in the fold that can stretch the field. Passing yards are obviously an integral part of fantasy production for QBs, but how does this fit into the equation? The Gut Check will exam the top-30 performers in this category and whether they show up on the other lists covered thus far.

Passing Yardage—It is no surprise many of the best yardage QBs have enough fantasy points to be a top-5 signal caller this decade. Only Marc Bulger’s effort from last season was less than a 325-point effort, and not by much.

Also as expected, high yardage producers have a very high rate of passing attempts. However, there seems to be something that separates the yardage list from the attempts list in terms of touchdowns.

The offensive system of many of the attempts leaders could be a factor. Twelve of the seasons on this list belong to QBs that performed in west coast offenses or run and shoot offenses. Still there aren’t enough seasons to indicate offensive system is the issue. In fact, it’s more likely attributable to signal callers who have high attempts but poor production due to offenses that have to play from behind and lack the type of firepower to score on long pass plays.

It appears yardage and touchdowns remain the primary stats that fantasy owners need to consider. What yardage figure is considered a quality season for a signal caller? Three thousand yards used to be a good figure—4000 yards was unheard of prior to 1980 and still extremely rare in that decade. This is why Dan Marino’s 5084-yard effort stands out as one of the great records in sports. The fact Marino has five seasons with at least 4400 yards is an astounding feat. Peyton Manning’s three seasons of 4000 yards passing isn’t too shabby for a signal caller entering his 10th year. But how common is 4000 yards since 1978? There have been 60, 4000-yard passing seasons. Here’s how they break down by year.

There was an upward trend in the mid-nineties but it appears the amount of 4000-yard passers ebbs and flows nearly every year. One can reasonably predict a downturn in 2007 just from the history seen here. The Gut Check would say Peyton Manning would be the only near-lock for 4000 yards in 2007. The second candidate would be among Brady, Kitna, or Brees. Predictions aside, what this table shows is 4000-yards isn’t like the 1300-yard benchmark for a runner.

The more likely figure is 3500 yards. Since the NFL used a 16-game season, there have been a steady number of 3500-yard passers and has remained more consistently in the 7-10 range in this decade. It’s clear 67%-80% of the fantasy starters—depending on the size of one’s league—will hit this 3500-yard mark.



How have attempts changed during this span of time? One would expect this number to appear similar to the yardage figure and in fact, the number has increased and stabilized during the decade.



Although there have been as many as 14 QBs with 480 attempts, that’s still less than half the starters in the NFL. This is truly a good number to expect from a starter in 10 or 12-team leagues. 480 attempts averages to 30 attempts per game for a quarterback, which coupled with 3500 yards, are a good low-end numbers to project for the 8th or 9th-ranked QB in one’s rankings. This should keep one’s projections realistic or allow one to view another’s projections with a more objective, critical eye.

The last major passing stat to review is touchdowns. The Gut Check will compare the all-time leaders in this category with the previous leaders in the other stat lines to reveal the more realistic high end numbers for each of these performance components in a quarterback’s game.

Passing TDs—Right away, it is apparent the 3500-yard mark has a strong link to a high rate of touchdowns. Only two quarterbacks—Montana and Favre—had seasons where they scored more than 30 touchdowns but threw for less than 3500 yards. This is an incredibly high rate and solidifies the 3500-yard benchmark as a threshold for high performance.

What’s striking about the comparison among all five stat lists is the fact the best touchdown performers had significantly higher fantasy performances than the attempts leaders but average fewer attempts than all save the completion percentage leaders. Actually, the scoring leaders are statistically among the most efficient quarterbacks across the board in each category. When projecting a quarterback’s performance, consider his recent completion percentage, attempts, and yardage with the offense he’s playing. If there are not significant changes with his personnel, or the personnel lacks statistical signs of improvement from the year before, be careful with the optimism with projections.

Rushing Performances
Although far fewer quarterbacks make a significant impact as runners, there are a number of high profile examples otherwise. Since 1978, there are only 25 seasons where a quarterback averaged at least 5 attempts per game and the most were Mike Vick’s 7.68 per game last year, and the Falcons’ QB is the only 1000-yard rusher at the position in this era. The number of QBs with at least 400 yards rushing in a season has remained the same with only a slight spike in recent years.

It’s easy to see that the “era of the running QB” came and left rather quickly. This is good evidence that the expected trend of running quarterbacks never really came to fruition. The all-time leaders in this era at the QB position for rushing yardage demonstrate there truly aren’t many prolific running quarterbacks.

The top 30 rushing seasons since 1978 belong to a grand total of 14 quarterbacks. Mike Vick owns four of the top 10. Randall Cunningham appears a whopping 6 times—he owns 20% of this list! Steve McNair has three appearances. McNabb, Culpepper, Young, and Stewart each have two. So these 7 QBS are responsible for 19 of these rushing efforts—a clear example as to why the “running quarterback” trend is a myth.

The next possible running QB might be Vince Young. While he already posted the 11th-best rushing total in this era, he was a rookie and his numbers could dwindle as he becomes a more efficient passer. Of course, Steve Young was already an excellent passer by 1998 when he amassed 454 yards and 6 scores, so its possible VY could continue to thrive on the ground. His abilities remind the Gut Check as a combination of Randall Cunningham, Steve McNair, and Donovan McNabb.

Only 9 of these QBs amassed at least 325 fantasy points and only 16 of the 30 exceeded the 300-point barrier. In fact, only 4 quarterbacks on this list exceeded 100 fantasy points on the ground—Vick (3 times), Cunningham, McNair, and Stewart.

It’s a clear indication one should not project more than 400 yards rushing from a quarterback unless he has proven to be this prolific as recently as the year before. Vick and Young are the only two current quarterbacks who fit this description.

On other thing that is apparent from this list is that more attempts don’t necessarily equate to more touchdowns for quarterbacks. Here’s a list of the highest touchdown-scoring QBs on the ground. The Gut Check only listed 12 seasons because these are the only QBs with at least 7 rushing scores.

The range of attempts span from 41 to 113 and 30% of the seasons have 60 carries or less. Interestingly enough for all of Vick’s seasons of high yardage totals on the ground, he’s only exceeded the 6-touchdown barrier once. Steve McNair, Kordell Stewart, and Dante Culpepper have done it twice. Only 6 of the 12 quarterbacks on this list attained 300-point seasons. So do you want a strong fantasy quarterback or a quarterback that scores a lot of rushing touchdowns? If you want both, flip a coin. Still that’s not a bad gamble from a projection standpoint when one is considering a player such as Vince Young—a developing signal caller who will only get better as a passer and is still healthy enough to do damage with his legs. McNair and Culpepper are still in the league, but neither is likely to return to their days of toting the rock into the end zone with great regularity.

All this data should help one understand some basic points about projecting fantasy performance for quarterbacks:

1. If one is going to project a high number of passing touchdowns, then passing yardage, attempts, and percentage need to be high.
   
2. Passing attempts don’t necessarily dictate high fantasy performances because these quarterbacks are often gaining points in garbage time.
   
3. The best of the best running quarterbacks rarely account for even 30% of their fantasy points from rushing totals.
   
4. Any projected total over 300 points is likely to place a quarterback in the top 7-8 of his position for the year in question.
   
5. 3500 passing yards is a benchmark performance for a quality starting quarterback.
   
6. A high completion rate is often as likely to belong to a highly productive fantasy quarterback (Steve Young) and a signal caller that completes a lot of short passes for an ineffective offense (David Carr).
   
7. The high end of attempts per game (starter worthy numbers) is 30, or 480 attempts for the season.

If one considers these points and the analysis from this article when considering projections, he will have a better chance of separating likelihood from hype.