The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 96
A Projections Primer Part I: RBs
7/13/07

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

Not all fantasy owners have this understanding. Yours truly heard someone recently mention “the days of the 400-carry per game back” are over. Considering there are only 5 backs in 37 seasons that even hit this mark, the owner with this impression might be at a disadvantage when projecting running back performance. There are definitely more owners out there with this lack of knowledge. Therefore, the Gut Check has decided to provide a historical overview of fantasy stats that will help owners avoid the common pitfall or projecting player performance—extreme over-and under-valuation of players.

Historical Stats For Fantasy Runners

The key components one must consider when projecting running back performance:

• Total Fantasy Points
  
• Attempts
  
• Rushing Yards
  
• Rushing Touchdowns
  
• Receptions
  
• Receiving Yards
  
• Receiving Touchdowns

Seems obvious, right? Not necessarily. Otherwise there wouldn’t be so many flawed projections among fantasy owners.

Fantasy Points—One would think with all the RBBC talk that the top backs would score fewer points in recent years than they did previously. The numbers show otherwise. These point totals are for a standard scoring fantasy league: 1 point per 10 yards rushing or receiving and 6 points per touchdown:

The average attempts for these top 30 performances are nearly 355 carries. The most coming from Larry Johnson’s 416 totes of the rock in 2006 and the least from Marshall Faulk in 1999 and 2000 with 253 attempts.

One should also include total touches within one’s projection strategy since they contribute to the overall fantasy performance. The average total touches for the top 30 fantasy performances are 410—a very safe number to use as a maximum figure for projecting the stats of the #1 RB for the 2007 season.

One could go higher, but it’s important to keep in mind that LT’s all-time best output last year came off 404 touches and James Wilder’s 30th-ranked performance came from an all-time high of 492 touches. More touches don’t necessarily dictate more points once one gets to this rarified air of performance. The difference is with a player’s ability to score touchdowns.

The question one should ask after seeing these stats is not about RBBCs, but how much wide receiver performance has increased since 1978. Has the increase in WR performance outpaced that of the running backs? If the case, it would be the reason why RBs may seem less valuable to fantasy owners than in previous years.

But after viewing this chart, the difference in recent production to previous years isn’t as great for receivers as it is for backs. In fact, the difference in points between the 1st and 5th-ranked RB is far greater (102) than the 1st and 5th-ranked WR (47). This follows suit with the difference between the #6 RB and #12 RB (52.6 pts) and the #6 and #12 WR (23.9 pts). The 20th-ranked WR is only 100 points back from the top WR, but the #20 RB is nearly 200 points back. From the Gut Check’s point of view, this data means it is more important to pick 3-4 backs early in a draft and hope to hit on two of them because this is where the greatest deficit of points occurs with consistency on a fantasy roster. In other words, it’s much easier to find receivers in the mid-to-late rounds that will hold their own against one’s competition than it is to find a quality back. It’s truly a mystery why people are abandoning the stud back approach in most any non-PPR draft scenario.

These fantasy point totals should also give one a good idea where to cap their projections. Just because Ladainian Tomlinson had the best fantasy year ever, doesn’t mean it is the start of a trend. The differential in points between backs versus wide receivers already demonstrates how valuable the runner is in fantasy football—there is no need to go overboard.

Attempts—Since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, there have been 179 runners with at least 300 attempts—around 4.7 runners per year on average. But let’s see how many have been split by year.

For such talk about RBBCs it’s apparent there are far more 300-carry runners since 1995 than the previous 17 years and the trend is still moving upward. Wouldn’t the trend be going the opposite direction if the doom and gloom of committees were true? It appears the safe bet for 2007 is to anticipate 9-10 runners hitting the 300-carry mark with 6-7 of these players attaining at least 240 fantasy points. The average amount of receivers reaching that same 240 fantasy-point mark is zero—these figures still show why taking a shot at two backs early is a good decision.

Rushing Yardage—The average rushing total for the all-time top 30 performances was approximately 1715 yards. Anything over that figure for the top fantasy back on an annual basis is likely too optimistic. The 1000-yard mark was once the indicator of a productive year for a runner. In a 12-game season, 1000 yards equated to 83.3 yards per contest and this was when this yardage figure became popular among the media. To maintain this average over a 14-game season, the standard mark should have been 1166 yards—not a media-friendly figure. Now in the era of 16-game seasons, the figure should be set more accurately at 1333 yards—or 1300 yards to keep it simple. How many 1300-yard performances per year have there been since 1978?

As with attempts per season, the number of backs hitting the 1300-yard mark has increased overall since 1978. The most interesting pattern with this graph is the downward corrections that occur in alternating seasons or sometimes every 2-3 seasons. Despite these corrections, there has not been a period in nearly 40 years where the number of 1300-yard backs has dropped in consecutive seasons. Injuries certainly play a role in these corrections—Clinton Portis and Curtis Martin were two 1300-yard backs in 2005 that could be healthy for 2006. Retirement or job-loss (free agency or the 1300-yard rusher returning to a supporting role—Mike Anderson for example) also has an influence on these figures. 2006 appears to a correction attributed to injury and rookies splitting time with incumbent veterans (Jones-Drew, Bush, Addai, Maroney, and Williams). With the trending above, it’s likely that 2007 will see an increase of 2-4 runners with at least 1300 yards. It’s worth noting the top fantasy performances of all-time only had three instances where a back gained less than 1400-yards and all three came from Marshall Faulk who had no less than 765 receiving yards in each of these years—nearly 300 yards higher than the average production on this list.

Rushing Touchdowns—When a score in most fantasy leagues is worth roughly one third to one half the fantasy points of the average game from a runner ranked from 5th to 10th overall, that should tell you why it is so important to draft backs with a propensity for reaching the end zone. Here are the top 26 touchdown performances from backs during the era of the 16-game season (1978-2006):

Note how difficult it is for a runner to average 1 score per game—do this and you’re close to attaining rarified air. The average amount of touchdowns for the top fantasy performances in the history of the 16-game season is just over 1 score per game.

But once again, this data continues to discredit the idea that the NFL is going to an RBBC system that will ruin fantasy football strategy, as we know it. Twelve of the 26 players on this list attained these all-time highs in the past six years. Plus, no RB on this list had less than 240 fantasy points, that magic mark in common with 300-carry backs and annual top-10 fantasy point performers in the past six years. In fact, the average amount of total carries for the backs on this list was 339.

In other words, these backs aren’t redzone specialists—they are prolific, all-purpose runners. Smith, Tomlinson and Alexander appear three times on this list. Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson appear twice. Despite five runners taking up nearly half the space on this list, there are several backs in the past six seasons with double-digit scores and feature back fantasy totals.

The backs on this list are all bell cow backs—players that got the ball in just about every type of down and distance situation and were the centerpiece of the offensive game plan. Backs that didn’t make this list but were not far off included workhorses such as Clinton Portis, Ahman Green, Fred Taylor, Eddie George, Jamal Lewis, Deuce McCallister, Willie Parker, Corey Dillon, Rudi Johnson, Curtis Martin, and Edgerrin James. That’s 11 backs in addition to Tomlinson, Alexander, and Johnson that spent most of their career as featured backs.

It seems the problem with picking featured backs in a fantasy draft has more to do with picking the right backs with sustained performance or on the ascent rather than choosing a back going in the opposite direction. The stats show there are more high-quality producers at RB with greater overall productivity than their counterparts at receiver than ever before in the history of a 16-game NFL season.

Receptions—The average number of receptions for the 30 backs on the all-time fantasy point list is 55.5, nearly 3.5 receptions per game. This is about one-third to one-half the total of top receivers on a yearly basis, but this is to be expected from a position where their primary touches are generally carries. Yet, there are runners that had much higher reception totals and posted huge fantasy seasons—Marshall Faulk is an obvious example. But is a high reception count in a non-point per reception league really an indicator for high fantasy production from the running back position?

The answer is no. Only 11 of the top 30 all-time reception performances from the 16-game era actually earned 240 or more fantasy points. When one scans the list of runners, the reason becomes more obvious: several of the backs were fullbacks or role players that were fed the ball primarily as receivers out of the backfield and not as runners. Larry Centers, Richie Anderson, Earl Cooper, Keith Byars, and Ronnie Harmon were all fullbacks or 3rd down backs. In fact, the great Joe Washington was considered one of the first situational backs in the 16-game era. Larry Centers actually appears on this list 4 times in his career.

Marshall Faulk appears on this list a record 5 times, and 4 of his appearances coincide with highly productive fantasy totals. Faulk, Tomlinson, and Garner, followed in the footsteps of 49er Roger Craig and Falcon William Andrews—all-purpose backs who were also excellent receivers and utilized as such. Stephen Jackson appears to be the next in line to make his mark.

What about Reggie Bush? On the surface, the Saints runner seems to fit the profile of the specialty backs from the Joe Washington-Larry Centers-Ronnie Harmon, camp. The Gut Check doesn’t believe Bush’s career will remain as that of a 3rd down back/role player out of the backfield, but 2007 won’t likely be the time his role changes too dramatically—as long as Deuce McCallister remains a healthy Saint.

With only 3-4 exceptions, a back with 75 or more receptions has not been the prolific fantasy producer in non-PPR leagues. But what about leagues where backs get an extra point per reception? Do the prolific pass catchers out of the backfield earn more points than the bell cow backs between the tackles? If the answer is yes, then draft strategies in point per reception leagues should take a more radical departure from traditional scoring leagues.

First, let’s determine the top 30 fantasy performances for running backs in point per reception leagues. The Gut Check will spare his beleaguered editor another table, but he’ll give you the highlights—while there were changes with the players’ spots in the rankings, only two backs from the traditional scoring leagues didn’t make the PPR list. The regular scoring setup included Jamal Lewis and Jamal Anderson, but the PPR setup had William Andrews and Roger Craig in their place. The backs on the PPR list only average a half a reception more per game than their non-PPR counterparts. This indicates that in most cases, the top scoring fantasy backs in non-PPR leagues are generally just as effective in PPR setups. There are going to be a few exceptions in any given year and though this is good to know in specific situations involving 2-3 runners, most backs gain a majority of their points on the ground. Of course the runners that are true dual threats will have greater overall value in a PPR league but make sure they are the primary runners in their offense before pulling the trigger ahead of some of the workhorses on the ground.

Receiving Yards—This stat has a slightly bigger impact for non-PPR leagues. Here are the top 310 yardage figures since 1978. Exactly half of the all-time best at receiving yardage in the 16-game era reached the aforementioned, 240-fantasy point benchmark. This is still not as great an indicator for success as the rushing stats, but the best fantasy point performers were once again backs that were primary runners for their squad—William Andrews, Marshall Faulk, Stephen Jackson, and Roger Craig—as opposed to the more one-dimensional producers such as Terry Kirby, Amp Lee, Larry Centers, and Ronnie Harmon. While these one-dimensional backs can make solid bye-week fill-ins, they are not every week starters in non-PPR leagues.

The Gut Check’s advice is not to project more than one runner with anything higher than 700 yards receiving. Last year there were two, but this was the first time in 6 years that more than one back had such a productive season with yardage gained through the air. This is the type of perspective a fantasy owner should have when considering projections of any type—his own or someone else’s.

Eleven of these performers on this list scored less than 200 fantasy points! In fact, half of the top ten receiving performances for a back since the advent of a 16-game season resulted in less than 200 fantasy points—a clear indication these were role players. Does this mean they were a part of an RBBC? Sure, but the Gut Check believes RBBCs often come into play when there is a reason for a team to lack confidence in their #1 RB due to injury or mediocre performance. Larry Centers and Ronnie Harmon were performing for teams with dreadful running attacks in the 1990s. Terry Kirby was a part of a Dolphins squad that rarely had a significant ground attack during the Dan Marino era.

Receiving TDs—Of the best receiving touchdown performances for a season in the 16-game era, only 6 of the 30 players reached the 240-point benchmark. Unlike rushing touchdowns, scoring through the air lacks any significant correlation to high levels of fantasy production from running backs. The exceptions were Thurman Thomas, Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig—re-known all-purpose backs.

If there’s anything a fantasy owner should take from these stats is an understanding that projecting anything within the range of each of these tables is approaching the best performances of all-time. Therefore, one should use these numbers as a statistical ceiling. One could take the chance since in recent years there have been a significant number of high-end performances, but it will definitely be wisest to avoid projecting receiving yards/tds at a level where the trend isn’t moving in the direction of bigger, better numbers. In addition, understand that two starting quality RBs still provide far more points than receivers. In the Gut Check’s opinion, it’s still best to grab at least one back within the first two rounds and three RBs within the first five to six of one’s draft picks.

A Special Postscript About RB Tandems

With all the hoopla about committees, the Gut Check researched the top RBBCs since the advent of the 16-game season (1978). What he found was that there were several duos where both backs played more than 80% of the season’s games and scored enough fantasy points individually to both be considered top 30 backs in any given year. Interestingly enough, the top 10 duos consisted of 9 teams from the 70s and 80s and only one duo in the 21st century—the Jaguars tandem of Jones and Taylor in 2006.

So yours truly will end this article with a table of the top 10 RB tandems. He suggests you look them over and ponder the fact that only two other tandems from 2000-2006 were even in the top 30 duos (Denver’s Bell and Anderson in 2005 and the Bush-McCallister duo in 2006). It is rare to find a duo that plays even 70% of the season and produces at a high enough level to consider them a committee. The Bush-McCallister/Jones-Taylor pairings are indeed rare for the fact one can get relatively close production from either member of the backfield. It is even less common for these tandems to continue such a high level of production as a duo for more than a year.