The Weekly Gut Check - Vol. 82
Second Half Fantasy Splits
11/2/06

The “Gut Feeling” is often synonymous with a sense of desperation resulting from a lack of preparation. The Gut Check is a huge proponent of studying the numbers, but there’s a point where one can place too much emphasis on the wrong information. This can result in the undervaluing or overlooking a player’s potential. Therefore, The Weekly Gut Check is devoted to examining the frame of reference behind certain number-driven guidelines that fantasy football owners use to make decisions.

Although The Weekly Gut Check doesn’t claim to be psychic, he does believe that he can dispel certain numbers biases and help you make the best choices for your team. We’ll keep a running tally of The Weekly Gut Check’s insights. This way you can gauge his views as something to seriously consider, or at least seriously consider running the opposite way as fast as you can!

So the Gut Check wants to give you a good example of how sport mimics positive human behavior: Fantasy Stat Splits that show over of a three-year period which players up their performance the most in the second half of the season. This isn’t a foolproof method of determining which players are must have, fantasy personnel because injury, rookie years, and personnel transitions can have a definite impact on these stats. Nonetheless, it’s a good place to start. If you saw the Gut Check’s stat splits for 2002-2004, you knew players like Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, and Chad Johnson had excellent histories of turning it up a notch down the stretch.

This year yours truly examines the average split differential for years 2003-2005 and provides his take on particular players with numbers that catch his eye.

The Gut Check believes some of these numbers might be difficult to analyze upon first glance. Take Trent Green for example. During the last three seasons, Green is significantly better during the second half of the season than in the opening portion of the year. This year Green is still recovering from a serious concussion suffered so early in the season that yours truly finds it hard to believe that Green will put up the kind of numbers he did in the second halves of 2003-2005. Combine this injury with the rust factor, and don’t get so excited about adding Trent Green via free agency that you drop better than average quarterback in the process. The same should hold true for Aaron Brooks in a new offense and yet to come back from injury.

On the other hand, Vick, Palmer, and Peyton Manning are all players that get better as the season progresses. This should definitely be the case with Palmer. Remember, Palmer had a very serious injury and returned to action in less time than Daunte Culpepper. Palmer has been able to play well enough to remain the starter. With Chris Henry, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Chad Jackson all in the lineup, expect Palmer to continue to improve despite less than inspiring fantasy production so far.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Marc Bulger and Eli Manning have significantly negative differentials from 2003-2005. This is where injury (Bulger) and the developmental learning curve (Manning) impact the numbers. Expect Bulger’s numbers to steadily improve with increasing comfort with the new offensive scheme—as long as he remains healthy—and Manning has sufficiently reached the level of proficiency as an NFL starter to maintain his level of play throughout the year. It’s also telling how Drew Bledsoe and David Carr’s negative differentials mimic their performances during the past two weeks. Both were benched for poor play and Bledsoe has lost his starting job altogether. Carr’s numbers shouldn’t remain as bad because he has a better offense around him that has managed to remain healthy. The Gut Check would recommend you to remain optimistic with Carr.

From the get go, it’s probably best to be cautious about the differentials for LJ, Barber III, Gore, and Jones at the top of this list. All three saw more action in the second half of the season some time during these three years—and their sample of games are low. Of these four, the Gut Check believes Johnson and Jones have the best opportunities to continue performing at a higher level down in the second half of 2006.

Jones is on a squad that is gaining more offensive consistency and finally has a coaching staff in place that has enough control of the team to keep them focused on performing on the field and not for the news cameras. Johnson was a beast last week and the offense appears to be getting into more of a comfort zone with their strategy.

Rueben Droughns finally had a nice game last weekend. Is it a coincidence that he has one of the better differentials among backs on this list? What he has in common with McAllister and Johnson is their tendency to run downhill and wear out opposing defenses with a punishing style. All three share this trait with Larry Johnson. Remember, defensive players also wear down as the season progresses. A punishing back can be a real asset for a fantasy team this time of year.

With that thought in mind, Thomas Jones and his negative differential may be an indication of his tendency to wear down. Cedric Benson, as expected, got more carries last week. Will the trend continue? The Gut Check thinks so. Benson is a talented back with a more punishing style. While this might be a raw deal for both Jones and his fantasy owners, be cognizant of the fact the Chicago Bears want to introduce their top 10 pick to the starting line up sooner than later. Only a Priest Holmes type of differential would slow the timetable for what looks like an inevitable event. While Jamal Lewis is classified as a power back due to his size, have you really observed his style of play? If you have, you’ll likely come to a similar conclusion as the Gut Check: Lewis is a powerful back in terms of finishing runs but his style is more finesse-based on cuts and bouncing plays outside than his image suggests. Although Lewis had nice production last week, he wasn’t very efficient per carry—less than a 3.5-yard per carry average in the game.

Another guy that should have production that belies his image is Fred Taylor. As long as he remains healthy, Taylor could be that money player for you down the stretch—especially if rookie Maurice Jones-Drew continues to occasionally—emphasis on occasionally—spells Taylor to keep him fresh. Many may believe the opposite is true, but Taylor’s weight loss should aid his stamina in 2006. And that point should make a big difference on the stat line.

Not a Lee Evans fan? Maybe you should reconsider. The 3rd-year Buffalo Bill is a deep ball extraordinaire. Completing these passes takes good timing on various levels within the offense. On a team like the Bills, that can mean the second half of the season has better production than the first. The Gut Check believes Lee Evans could be a pro bowl receiver if he played for a team like the Saints.

Jerry Porter’s numbers are more injury-driven. This year it will likely be doghouse driven—in other words, if he can stay out of it he’s guaranteed for a positive differential by default. The real question is whether he’ll be a good fantasy starter. Right now, the outlook isn’t that great but he does run better routes than Randy Moss so there’s a chance he can be decent. Drew Bennett’s numbers are Billy Volek-2004-driven stats and you shouldn’t take him too seriously until 2007 when Vince Young makes a bigger leap with his adjustment to the pro game.

Terry Glenn, Plaxico Burress, and Randy Moss have some troubling differentials. You should downplay Burress’ negative stats because he’s been playing for young quarterbacks in the past three seasons, which means he’s been a victim of them “hitting the wall” towards season’s end. The other two are players a fantasy owner should have legitimate worries about their production down the stretch. Both are playing with young quarterbacks with little in-game experience. Don’t expect great totals from either player—especially when at least one of their quarterbacks hits that wall in 2006.

If you’re in a high risk-high reward mood, take a chance on acquiring Donte Stallworth or Chris Chambers for your stretch run. Both players are risks for different reasons, but they traditionally have nice second halves—especially Chambers. It will be difficult to believe the Dolphins receiver and Harrington will be out of sync much longer. The Gut Check believes an explosion is an imminent possibility. If you’ve got nothing to lose (or at least play with this mentality) take the chance.

Tony Gonzalez has been the 2006 poster child for the term overrated fantasy player when it came to draft position, but his differential is tops during the past three seasons. As the running game continues to have more success, look for the natural complement of the tight end open down the middle in the passing game to rise to the forefront in Kansas City.

Do you like Todd Heap as a fantasy player? Keep liking him, because he’s steady good—the same goes for Jason Witten. Can’t really say the same about Jeremy Shockey, but remember the Plaxico Burress factor the Gut Check just discussed? Keep that in mind when talking about Shockey.

L.J. Smith had a huge drop off, but did that have to do with the team imploding last year? The Gut Check thinks so. As long as McNabb stays healthy, Smith should continue having a solid year for fantasy owners.

When it comes to fantasy point splits, remember that injury, rookie seasons, and unusually soft/difficult schedules have an impact on these numbers. Yet, when you pair this information with Mike MacGregor’s strength of schedule tables, you have enough data to make some solid personnel decisions for your squad.

Team Updates

Fantasy Auctioneer Experts Invitational: Two lineup mishaps cost the Gut Check the opportunity to remained tied for first place in his division: benching McNair for Carr and opting for Cadillac over Fred Taylor. While Carr’s poor game was hopefully a fluke, Fred Taylor (as mentioned above) is looking good. These mistakes resulted in a three-point loss. The problem is yours truly trust McNair’s match up more than Carr and Cadillac’s opportunities than Taylor’s. This squad is third in power ranking despite a mediocre, 81% lineup efficiency score. As yours truly gets better picking his line up, this team should be very good down the stretch.

Projected Starting Lineup: McNair, Jackson, Taylor, Derek Hagan, Donald Driver, Joe Horn, Todd Heap, Josh Scobee, and the Ravens Defense.

Ironman 3 Dynasty League (40-man rosters with IDP): Two in a row for yours truly (team name Out To Lunch) with a solid, 187-point game thanks to comeback points on Monday night from Mike Vrabel and Doug Gabriel. Now at 4-4, and three games back from Mike MacGregor’s division-leading juggernaut, the Gut Check suddenly has some running back depth with Wali Lundy and Brandon Jacobs to back up Westbrook and Cadillac. Lundy might beat out Cadillac for the #2 RB spot next week. Now he just needs Fitzgerald to return to health and productivity in week 10 (or Jerry Porter to stay out of the Raiders doghouse), and yours truly has a shot at contending.

Projected Starting Lineup: McNair, Lundy, Cadillac, Gabriel, Berrian, Porter, McMichael, Vinatieri, Rod Coleman, James Hall, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Derrick Johnson, Michael Boley, Julian Peterson, Mike Vrabel, Walt Harris, Charles Woodson, Sean Jones, and Glenn Earl.

SOFA Fantasy Auction League: Let’s call it a 4-game winning streak thanks to more LT and huge games from Reggie Wayne and Ben Watson—yes, a Ben Watson fantasy sighting! Thought it might never happen at this rate. Vince Young continues to make a compelling argument to start for his squad.

Projected Starting Lineup: Young (or Brunell if yours truly chickens out), LT, Cadillac, Driver, Toomer, Wayne, Watson, free agent kicker, and Saints.

MADFAD (Dynasty Contract League w/IDP and Fluctuating Player Values): His first three-game losing streak in this league during its 6-year history. A 3 or 4-game winning streak could turn the fortunes around for this team, but Chad Johnson and Randy Moss need return to form. Looks like a long season, but this team has too many good young players to ditch just to win now.

Projected Starting Lineup: McNair, Dillon (or Maroney), Cadillac, C. Johnson, Galloway, Berrian, Shockey, Bullock, Vilma, Feeley, Hali, Dumervil, Polamalu, and A. Wilson.

Local League (Traditional re-draft and scoring): Another CBS league, the Gut Check finally won and won big this week—thanks to LJ, Colston, and the Ravens defense. Despite a 4-4 record, yours truly is now the scoring leader in this league. Still, Galloway and Harrison’s efforts were a bit troubling. Harrison should bounce back—it made sense for Manning to exploit Darrent Williams on Reggie Wayne. Here’s hoping Chris Henry can continue to hold it together between Sundays and Greg Jennings returns to health before the Gut Check’s receiving corps implodes.

Projected Lineup: Favre, LJ, Jones, Joey Galloway, Marques Colston, Samie Parker (Hagan or Henry), Marvin Harrison, Todd Heap, Mike Vanderjagt, and Ravens Defense.

FFTOC: What a fall from grace this week—dropping 47 spots after a 67-point whimper. This week needs to be much better to remain comfortably within range of making the final cut.

Fantasy Football Handbook Expert Mock: The Gut check remained at 5th overall, but still one excellent game from jumping into the top three. This week was a 135-point effort—about 20 points over his average—but three other teams had similar outings and maintained their lead. You can select the link for the roster to see the Gut Check’s options…