It’s Tua time in South Beach now that Fiztmagic has joined
the Washington Football Team on a one-year deal. The former first-round
pick out of Alabama will get an entire offseason of reps with
the No.1’s on the Dolphins offense, something he did not
get last season with Fitzpatrick sharing the reps and COVID-19
shortening the off-season.
For someone as decorated as Tua, it is surprising how little
respect he seems to get in fantasy circles and with NFL evaluators.
Sure, he managed just 11 passing touchdowns and 1814 yards in
ten games as a rookie - pedestrian numbers by any measure.
But considering the circumstances in which he entered the NFL,
it is not a shock that he did not have a monster rookie season.
Also, it does not help that Justin Herbert did so well as a rookie
by comparison.
Unlike the Jets, who left Sam Darnold hanging out to dry with
no skill position supporting players and a below-average offensive
line, the Dolphins have given Tua every opportunity to succeed
with the addition of free-agent wide receiver Will Fuller and
the first-round selection of Jaylen Waddle.
From a pure fantasy standpoint, Tua is likely to go well outside
the top-12 at the position, making him more of a streaming option
and someone to target in two-quarterback leagues. With matchups
against the Patriots and Bills, he is someone you should avoid
on draft day based on his early streaming matchups. However, he
does have games against the Raiders, Jags, Falcons, and Texans
after that rough start.
James Robinson was the unanimous breakout running back candidate
of 2020 after finishing as the No.8 running back in fantasy as
an undrafted rookie from Illinois State. Not far behind Robinson
was second-year back Myles Gaskin, who averaged an impressive
14.8 fantasy points per game, which was better than Josh Jacobs,
Austin Ekeler, Chris Carson, Antonio Gibson, and even Ezekiel
Elliott.
Unlike Robinson, who now has the share snaps with Travis Etienne,
the Dolphins did not add high caliber running back to the backfield,
leaving Gaskin to once again be the primary tailback.
At just over 200 pounds, Gaskin does not possess the size of
a prototypical every-down back, but his excellent receiving skills
and usage in the passing game make him an excellent target as
a low-end No.2 running back, especially in PPR.
After four disappointing seasons to start his career, Parker
finally came through with a monster campaign in 2019 in which
he topped 1200 reaching yards and set a career-mark for touchdown
receptions.
That breakout season vaulted Parker up into mid-round status
last season, with Parker posting an ADP of 6.07 according to Fantasy
Football Calculator.
Injuries and a poor rapport with Tua Tagovailoa dropped Parker
from a No.6 finish in 2019 to No.43 last year.
Parker’s breakout buddy Ryan Fitzpatrick is now on the
Washington Football team, and the Dolphins front office added
Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle to the mix. While the talent is
still there, and he will undoubtedly have a few big games, it
isn't easy to project Parker to return to his 2019 levels, making
him more of a WR 3 in most formats.
It may surprise some fantasy owners to learn that in 11 games
last season for the Texans, Will Fuller averaged more fantasy
points than his former teammate DeAndre Hopkins and fantasy darlings
DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson.
He had five games of 100-plus receiving yards and a touchdown
in all but four of his performances before having his season cut
short by a PED suspension.
Now that he is on a new team and does not have the benefit of
playing with Deshaun Watson, Fuller is currently ranked well below
how he finished last season and well behind Hopkins, Metcalf,
and Jefferson - three players likely to go in the second round
of most drafts.
It also doesn’t help Fuller’s value that he is going
to miss the first game of the year while serving the final game
of his PED suspension.
However, the upside of monster games from Fuller is still there
despite his change in teams, especially with opposing defenses
forced to account for DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle. For this
reason, he likely is more attractive in best ball. However, he
still is an excellent option as a WR3, especially in plus matchups
against weak opponents on the schedule like Jacksonville, Cincinnati,
and his former team.
The Dolphins used the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft
to take wide receiver, Jaylen Waddle from the University of Alabama.
Nagging leg injuries forced Waddle to miss half of the season
last year, while fellow first-round pick DeVonta Smith went nuclear
on opponents en route to winning the Heisman Trophy.
A comparison of the two players based on a college production
is no contest, as Smith had more receiving touchdowns last year
than Waddle had in three seasons with the Crimson Tide.
Yet it was Waddle who went higher than Smith in the draft due
to his larger frame and elite bust/speed metrics.
Most rookie wide receivers not named Justin Jefferson struggle
in their first season as they get acclimated to the speed of the
NFL. We anticipate this could be the case with Waddle, especially
as the likely third receiving option for Tua behind DeVante Parker
and Will Fuller.
If you use a late-round pick on Waddle, do so with the intention
of being patient. Miami starts with a pair of tough matchups against
the Patriots and Bills, two teams with top 10 defenses. Waddle
will likely start slowly, but he could be a nice play in late-September
and October with matchups against the Raiders, Jags, and Falcons.
Gesicki posted career-highs across the board in 2020, including
receptions, yards, and touchdowns, in route to a top-8 finish
in fantasy points per game.
While finishing eighth at any position sounds impressive, most
people who owned Gesicki last year would likely say they were
not very happy with his production. Ten of Gesicki’s performances
resulted in fewer than ten fantasy points, and the former Penn
State star went eight -straight games without a touchdown.
As we head into 2021, Gesicki has more competition for targets
in the passing offense with the addition of veteran WR Will Fuller
and the first-round selection of WR Jaylen Waddle.
We still have Gesicki ranked as a top-10 tight end, and he will
likely finish as a TE1 again in 2021. However, he could see a
reduction in targets, and he will continue to be inconsistent
as the No. 3 or No.4 receiving option for Tua.
