I joke with my friends and family that the stress from baseball
and fantasy football is going to take at least five years off of
my life.
As a lifelong San Francisco Giants fan who has watched nearly
every pitch of the team’s dynastic run over the past six
years, including every pitch of their ten-straight sudden death
victories, I am certain my obsession with the orange and black
has done more damage to my health than my poor diet and lack of
exercise.
The Giants’ latest nail-biting win over the Cubs in game
3 of the NLDS was not exactly what my ticker needed, considering
I spent the previous night on full tilt waiting for Odell Beckham
Jr. to give me a touchdown to put me over the top in my DFS head-to-head
matchup.
After repeatedly kicking myself over believing that the Giants
passing game would finally wake up on the road against an injury
depleted Packers secondary, and spending most of the first half
screaming nearly every imaginable curse word at the television,
OBJ came through for me in the clutch late in the fourth quarter
with a touchdown grab from Eli Manning.
Although it was a questionable call, just like the phantom foot
on the bag by Anthony Rizzo on a double play in the sixth, I’ll
take the win and move on to a fresh week of DFS and another high-stress
elimination game for the Giants.
I digress. You are looking for DFS analysis and not baseball
talk.
The following lineup review is a winning head-to-head matchup
on DraftKings.
In continuing with my series on going with Cash Stacks in head-to-head
games, I identified Big Ben at home against an injury-riddled
and talent absent New York Jet secondary. Ben’s splits at
home are not a new thing, as he threw 76 percent of his touchdown
passes at home last season, with a 102.4 passer rating compared
to just 86.0 on the road.
His only sub-20 point game this season came on the road against
a surprisingly good Philadelphia defense, leading me to believe
that he had a high floor this week against a Jets defense that
was the fourth-worst in terms of points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.
In head-to-head matchups where your’re only looking to
beat one person, it is nearly impossible to win if you have a
dud game for your quarterback. Although Ben was fairly pricey
at $7,200, I felt that it was a wise investment considering the
matchup and where the game was played.
My assumption was correct, and my stack of Ben and Sammie Coates
led me to victory.
Another week of DFS in the books, and another week where I failed
at picking running backs on my tickets.
The strategy this week was to go with a runner who I identified
as “safe” in Anderson, and another back who was cheap
with high upside.
I wanted both backs to have advantageous matchups against defenses
that have struggled against ball carriers through the first four
weeks. Only New Orleans has allowed more points to opposing running
backs than the Chargers, and the Falcons ranked 10th in points
against after allowing four touchdowns to opposing tailbacks in
four games.
In a classic case of a plan backfiring, my safe pick in Anderson
managed only 62 total yards on 14 touches, as Devonte Booker ate
into Anderson’s workload at a surprising rate. My assumption
was the Broncos would rely heavily on the run game to shorten
the time of possession for the Falcons and take pressure off of
Paxton Lynch.
We all know what happens when you assume, and of course Lynch
was beyond terrible and the Falcons shut down the run.
Washington was equally disappointing after managing only 2.6
yards per carry on nine attempts. Not a great showing for a highly
touted rookie looking to take the starting role from Latavius
Murray.
Moving on to where I actually made some solid picks.
I’ll save some time and energy from repeating myself on
Beckham Jr.’s pedestrian 16 points against the Packers,
aided by a late TD that won the week for me. I’m happy that
OBJ scored, but I’d be lying if I said that he met my expectations
for the week.
On a more gratifying note, my pick of Coates paid dividends to
the tune of 34.9 fantasy points on two TDs and 139 receiving yards.
The interesting play here is that I actually identified Coates
as a solid cash game player and not just a home run threat, as
the former Auburn Tiger delivered no less than 50 yards in any
game this season.
I felt like he was due for a touchdown as the Jets aimed their
focus on Antonio Brown, and luckily for me, my feeling was correct.
The five points Steve Smith posted was a bit heartbreaking considering
he missed most of the game after starting off red hot against
the Redskins. He was on pace for a 20-point game before leaving
with an ankle injury, with three catches for 29 yards in the first
quarter.
Injuries are an unfortunate part of fantasy sports that cannot
be predicted. We can do are best to avoid them with pregame reports
from beat writers and analysts on twitter. But if an otherwise
healthy player suffers an injury in the middle of the game and
misses the rest of the day, you have no other recourse but to
move on and hope your other players can pick up your team. Luckily
for me, the Big Ben and Sammie stack did just that.
Tight End: Zach
Ertz @ Detroit Fantasy Points: 6.7
Grade: D
With the tight end position unpredictable and the majority of
tight ends requiring a TD to be useful, I tend to look for high
volume tight ends like Ertz.
In his first game of the season, Ertz and rookie QB Carson Wentz
hooked up for 58 yards on six receptions against the Browns. My
logic here was that at only $3,500, Ertz was a lock for similar
production against a Lions defense that allowed the second-most
points to opposing tight ends.
Everyone and their second cousin had put up points this season
against the Lions, with Jack Doyle, Dwayne Allen, Delanie Walker,
and Zach Miller all reaching the end zone over the first four
weeks.
To make this play even more frustrating, the game script looked
favorable when the Lions jumped out to and early 14-point lead,
forcing the Eagles to rely heavily on the passing game to get
back in the contest.
I will look to cash in on Ertz in future contests, but I think
I will wait a week or two to allow him and his rookie quarterback
to get back on track before I insert Ertz in my lineup again.
Flex Play: Jordy
Nelson Fantasy Points: 13.8
Grade: B-
An acrobatic touchdown catch from Aaron Rodgers made an otherwise
disappointing play of Jordy Nelson bearable this week. It was
a great catch that somewhat overshadowed how out of sync the two
players were against the Giants, with Rodgers missing Nelson on
more than a couple throws and Nelson uncharacteristically dropping
back shoulder passes.
Posting nearly 14 points from your flex play is usually an excellent
score, but when you invest nearly $8000 on a WR in a solid matchup
you expect a bit more. My hope here was at least 80 yards and
a score.
Defense/Special Teams: New England Fantasy Points: 10
Grade: B
Predicting a defensive score is one of the more difficult tasks
in fantasy football, as a solid matchup for a tough defense against
sloppy and ineffective offense will not always lead to a score.
The best course of action in my opinion is to look for defenses
with a high probability for sacks and interceptions, and hope
that one of those turnovers will lead to defensive points. The
Pats against a rookie quarterback and a suspect offensive line
seemed like a logical play this week and a decent shot of getting
to my ten point goal for DST.
With two sacks, an interception, and a safety of rookie QB Cody
Kessler, my logic paid off on this one. Considering there
was only one defense that notched a defensive score this week
(Buffalo at L.A.), going for the high floor play of the Pats was
a wise move.
