We start with the running back position. Seventeen running backs improved their production by at least two fantasy-points-per game. They will likely be drafted significantly higher this season, therefore, the primary question for fantasy owners is whether they can still be a value or will fade back to previous levels and no longer be worth the draft capital required to roster them.

Many factors determine a running back’s productivity. First is volume. Will they continue to get more and more work or will they share more of the workload with other backs?

Will they be as efficient as last season, which begs the question is their offensive line better, the same or worse than last season?

Third, will they be involved in the passing game or more involved than last season?

Finally, how will the head coach and offensive coordinator use them? Are they used only between the 20s or do they get opportunities to score touchdowns?

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia (+5.9) – The 2024 season was a fairy tale for Barkley. From the struggling offense in New York, to running behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. He produced his highest fantasy total since his rookie season when he was a pass-catching wizard. But how will the Eagles protect him from injury in 2025 as they try to repeat? Run less? Will defenses decide to go all-out to defend him, as Kansas City did in Super Bowl LIX, and bet that Jalen Hurts can’t beat them as easily as Saquon did in rushing for 2,005 yards in 16 games? Everyone believes the Eagles schedule is harder in 2025, and it is. You can certainly slow Saquon, but you can’t stop him completely because of the holes the OL produces. Still, I’d expect a 15% pullback from the 22 FPts/G to about 19 FPts/G as you can’t expect him to produce seven 60-yard touchdown runs every season.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit (+5.2) – The only thing which could prevent Gibbs from reproducing last season’s results are… the Detroit Lions. The second-year back improved his rushing efficiency (from 5.2 ypc to 5.6), his receiving efficiency (6.1 ypr to 9.9) and his touchdown total (11 to 20) last season. But the Lions have offensive talent at every skill position (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta and fellow running back David Montgomery) and all of them are worthy of a portion of the workload. How new OC John Morton (former passing game coordinator in Denver the past two seasons) uses them is still unknown. So, will he see 302 touches again? The other concern is the OL which lost an important piece to retirement – four-time Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow. Despite all that, Gibbs still has a chance to lead the league in yards from scrimmage, however 20 touchdowns will be hard to repeat. As with Barkley, I’m looking for 19 FPts/G.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore (+5.9) – Last year, Henry’s first in Baltimore, was a resounding success. The threat of a “real” quarterback in Lamar Jackson, unlike his eight seasons in Tennessee, left the opposition defenseless against his power running game. He’ll still be a dominant force in 2025, though he may get a little more rest with the full-time return of Keaton Mitchell (8.4 ypc in 2023). Additionally, the passing game improved with the team bringing DeAndre Hopkins on board. Henry will still be a 300-touch guy, even at age 31, and I expect he can repeat last season.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta (+5.1) – Much is expected of Robinson in 2025. His current ADP is 2.08, the first running back off the board in a league where Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry are healthy. That’s a lot of pressure. His improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 was more about opportunities. His average rushes only increased from 4.6 ypc to 4.8 and his average reception fell from 8.4 to 7.1 per reception, but an OC coaching change led to 92 more touches and seven more touchdowns. As long as he stays healthy (I don’t want to jinx him, but he’s played in all 34 games over his two seasons), then his numbers should certainly be repeatable.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis (+2.0) – Apparently, the quagmire at quarterback in Indy is effecting Taylor’s fantasy value. Currently he’s the 11th RB off the board despite last season being the second-best of his career. He averaged 102 rushing yards-per-game and produced 17.6 FPts/G. The workload shouldn’t change and neither quarterback options (Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones) figure to be 4,000-yards passers, so I see no reason Taylor can’t be top-eight… or better. As a third-round selection (ADP 28.8), he should be a solid bargain.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay (+3.5) – The move from Las Vegas to Green Bay didn’t hurt Jacob’s numbers at all. He produced his second-most yards (1,329) and highest touchdown total of his career (16). Let’s face it, the Packers offense was much better than anything we’ve seen from the Raiders in years. He’ll be a workhorse once again in 2025. While the Packers did add a No.1 target this off-season for quarterback Jordan Love, the two-year starter took a step backward last season and became a fantasy backup. His status as a game-manager only enhances Jacobs’ fantasy value as a third-round bargain (ADP 27.9).

James Cook, Buffalo (+2.8) – Cook was a touchdown machine in 2024 (18), surpassing his previous personal best of six scores. Like we saw from Raheem Mostert last season, a number that far from normal, isn’t likely to be repeated. And you still have Josh Allen running for double-digit scores. But the yardage, has been consistent for a couple of years. Think 1,000 yards and about 10 touchdowns which would return him to about the 14 FPts/G level from 2023. He’s also currently in a contract dispute which saw him skip voluntary OTAs. Should that last into training camp it’s never a good thing. He’s currently being selected at the end of the fourth round (ADP 40.6) which is about right for his current situation.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle (+3.2) – Walker has been a solid fantasy option for three seasons, but there are red flags everywhere. His average yards-per-rush has gone from 4.6 to 4.1 to 3.7 last season. He made up for that deficiency by catching more balls out of the backfield, but backup Zach Charbonnet is still the better receiver. Walker has also missed games every season and last year saw him miss a personal high (6) while Charbonnet proved to be a quality replacement in a larger role. The Seahawks’ offense will look completely different without Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, so there are a lot of unknowns in the Pacific Northwest. Beware of this back as his numbers could take a hit if the offense is stagnant under new QB Sam Darnold.

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (+5.7) – Hubbard posted the best numbers of his career, but the future is cloudy. Behind the starter is Rico Dowdle, who played surprisingly well in Dallas (235-1079-2) and rookie Trevor Etienne (yes, the brother of Travis from Georgia). It was a bit of Jekyll and Hyde season for Hubbard, who produced six games above 20 fantasy points, but also four games below 10 points. Bryce Young improved in the second half of 2024 and the team spent a first-round pick on Tetairoa McMillan, so they could pass more. That might not hurt Hubbard, because they won’t stack the box against him, but a fast start would be wise or else the team might try their other options. I’m expecting a 15% reduction in production because of the depth in the Panthers’ running back room.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati (+10.5) – Brown went from “change-of-pace” back for Joe Mixon to full-time starter in 2024 and thrived in his new role. Defenses have to worry so much about the Bengals passing game that Brown became a fantasy star. It also helped that Zack Moss, was first ineffective (3.3 ypc) and then injured leaving Brown as a workhorse back for the second half of the season. Moss is back and so is Samaje Perine, a third-down back who could eat into Brown’s 54 receptions, but Brown can still produce as a three-down back. His production (15.9 FPts/G) is repeatable.

J.K. Dobbins, Denver (+3.1) – Dobbins started last season with two consecutive 130-yard rushing games for the run-heavy Los Angeles Chargers and then never cracked even 100-yards rushing again. He was replaced in the off-season by Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton and will backup rookie RJ Harvey in Denver. Frequently injured, when healthy he’s been a solid runner (career 5.2 ypc). It’s Harvey’s job to lose heading into training camp which makes Dobbins only a “handcuff” option for fantasy owners and I have no expectations of his ability to match last year’s 14.8 FPts/G.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota (+2.2) – Jones played 17 games for just the second time in his eight-year career and produced solid, though unspectacular, numbers (14.6 FPts/G). Jones produced only three games above 20 points, but just two single figure games. He will continue to be the primary option in the Vikings’ backfield, but until we see starting QB J.J. McCarthy under center we won’t know much about this offense which thrived with Sam Darnold in 2024 (ninth in points and sixth in passing yards). Minnesota picked up Jordan Mason to back up Jones, who was good as a replacement for injured Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco, but should just be a “handcuff” for Jones barring injury. I am expecting Jones to match last season’s production.

Rico Dowdle, Carolina (+6.9) – In his first chance as a starter, Dowdle was surprisingly good, producing 4.6 ypc, 1,079 rushing yards and 12.6 FPts/G. But the Cowboys completely revamped their backfield and Dowdle was not part of the makeover. He landed in Charlotte, where he is not the starter. Hubbard, off a career year, will stay the starter with Dowdle and rookie Trevor Etienne waiting in the wings. Dowdle is only insurance for Hubbard at this point.

Kareem Hunt, Kansas City (+4.1) – Hunt’s return to Kansas City after five years in Cleveland ended up being good for the running back. Starter Isiah Pacheco was injured in Game 2 and Hunt became the primary back carrying the ball 200 times, the most since his 2017 season. Seven rushing touchdowns helped make him a low-end RB2 for the first half of the season until Pacheco returned. Hunt should be the primary backup for Pacheco and expectations are low for 2025 production. Handcuff only.

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle (+4.4) – Charbonnet had some good moments last season, particularly in the fantasy regular season finale when he posted 38.3 fantasy points and proved he could carry the load when Kenneth Walker wasn’t available. However, as long as Walker is healthy, Charbonnet is a part-time player and it’s hard to see him scoring nine times as he did last season.

Ameer Abdullah, Free Agent (+7.2) – The Raiders spent a first-round pick on running back Ashton Jeanty and then added veteran Raheem Mostert leaving Abdullah looking for a job as a backup role. TBD.

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville (+6.6) – Starter Travis Etienne, slumped in 2024 (3.7 ypc) and Bigsby took advantage of the opportunity. He rushed for 4.6 ypc and scored seven times in what became a 50/50 spilt of the workload. In the off-season the team added Bhayshul Tuten from Virginia Tech and now it could be a complete RBBC among three backs. It’s hard to see how any of them will become fantasy worthy at this point.