“Before anything else, preparation is the key to success,”
said Alexander Graham Bell. Hopefully, you are ready for the next
two weeks where a great number of big-time stars will be on bye.
Two high-scoring teams, the Chiefs and Chargers are on bye in
Week 8 and six more teams in Week 9.
Byes: Kansas City, LA Chargers
“The true measure of a man is how he treats someone
who can do him absolutely no good.” – Samuel Johnson
1) “If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none.”
Sorry Bill Belichick, but this old football adage is still true.
Unlike every other position which can thrive from competition
and depth, quarterbacks need repetition and confidence, neither
of which you get sharing time with a backup. The starting quarterback
has to be the leader in the huddle and not looking over his shoulder
after a bad play. Notice when Dak Prescott was healthy, he immediately
returned to the lineup even though Cooper Rush was 4-1 as a starter.
Make a choice Bill and stick with it. Also, look to Indianapolis
where Frank Reich has installed Sam Ehlinger as his quarterback
for the rest of the season, not just next week. This is not a
2) JuJu Smith-Schuster has established himself as the No.2 receiving
option for Patrick Mahomes.
Fact. He’s cracked 100-yards in two straight games, 22+
fantasy points and scored in both games against the toughest of
competition (Buffalo and San Francisco). It’s interesting
to note that tight end Travis Kelce didn’t reach his season
average (20.7 FPts/G) in either of those games. When defenses
are determined to keep Kelce under control, Mahomes appears to
turn to Smith-Schuster next.
3) If you have a No.1 receiver facing the Denver Broncos, you
might sit him unless he’s as strong as Davante Adams.
Second-year CB Patrick Surtain Jr. has shadowed each elite receiver
and held them in check. Through the first seven weeks he held
(36 yards), Deebo
Samuel (73), Brandin
Cooks (54), Michael
Pittman Jr. (59), Mike
Williams (17) and Davante
Adams (101) without a touchdown reception. Only Adams cracked
75 yards. This doesn’t bode well for Christian
Kirk in Week 8. Even if Surtain isn’t on him every play, the
Broncos have allowed just one wide receiver touchdown this season.
4) Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford
all rank 20th or worse in fantasy points per game.
Of these four, I believe TB12 has the best chance to rebound
quickly. Wilson is hurting, Rodgers’ receivers can’t
get open and Stafford seems to be in a post-Super Bowl winning
funk. Although Brady hasn’t been good the past two weeks,
he’s at home for the next three games and he’s averaged
14.7 FPts/G on the road and 23.4 points in Raymond James Stadium.
He’ll face the 29th-ranked Ravens’ pass defense in
5) Prepare now for Week 9 when a season-high six teams will
be on a bye (Week 14 will also have six teams on bye).
“A liar begins with making falsehood appear like truth,
and ends with making truth itself appear like falsehood.”
– William Shenstone
1) The loss of Tyreek Hill to Miami in free agency will hurt
False. Through seven games, Mahomes is averaging 28.5 FPts/G.
That’s better than 2021 when he averaged 25.9 FPts/G. He
leads the league in passing touchdowns (20), on pace for 49 scores.
Early on this season, he relied almost exclusively on Travis Kelce,
but last week he used both Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling
2) Christian McCaffrey will be a better fantasy option now that
he is in San Francisco.
I’m going to have to say no. He’ll likely be more
efficient, but he won’t see as much work with the 49ers.
Obviously, the 49ers have a lot more talent on offense than the
Carolina Panthers’ lineup. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and
Brandon Aiyuk will all get a portion of the workload. Additionally,
the 49ers are thinking post-season run and the best plan for that
is keep CMC’s work limited by continuing to use Jeff Wilson
for 7-10 rushing attempts per game. Add in 2-4 attempts for Samuel
and McCaffrey’s likely to have an upper limit of 18-20 touches
per game including receptions.
3) Sam Ehlinger isn’t likely to succeed where Matt Ryan couldn’t.
Don’t count Ehlinger out. He has the ability to run where
defenses knew exactly where Ryan would be… planted in the
back of the pocket. In preseason, the 2021 sixth-round pick was
24-of-29 for 289 yards and four touchdowns. He also ran for 71
yards and another score. In four years at the University of Texas,
Ehlinger passed for 11,436 yards and 94 touchdowns (27 INTs) and
rushed for 1,903 yards and 33 touchdowns. He should have a healthier
Jonathan Taylor behind him and his next opponent, the Commanders
have yielded 14 touchdown passes in seven games (second-most).
The following two opponents, New England and Las Vegas, rank 21st
and 32nd, respectively, against opposing fantasy quarterbacks.
4) Over the last three weeks, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey
and Nick Chubb are top-10 running backs.
Actually no. They rank 11th. 12th and 14th, respectively. Surprisingly,
the Raiders’ Josh Jacobs leads all running backs the past
three games averaging 33.4 FPts/G. Austin Ekeler is second at
32.3 points. No other running back is averaging even 23 FPts/G
since Week 5. Jacobs’s run could continue for a while as
he won’t see a top-10 running back defense until Week 14,
though in Week 8 he’ll play against the No.12 Saints which
will be the toughest test until the Week 14 game (Rams).
5) Fantasy owners were never worried about Ja’Marr Chase’s slump
from Week 2-5.
OK, maybe they were a little concerned. After a great start in
Week 1 against Pittsburgh (28.9 fantasy points), Chase averaged
just 12.4 points during a four-game stretch. But he was still
seeing 9.25 targets a game so we shouldn’t have worried.
Chase has produced 32.2 and 33 fantasy points the past two games
on 21 targets. He’s back!