This is an easy one. Every quarterback has a big day against
the Seahawks’ pass defense. The worst day so far this season was
Kirk Cousins (249-2-1) so think of that as the floor, but they
average yielding 369 passing yards and just under two touchdowns
per game. Also, they have given up four QB rushing touchdowns.
Bridgewater has already faced the Falcons sieve-like defense
in Atlanta and he tore it up for 313 yards, two scores and zero
interceptions. The Atlanta pass defense ranks 31st, just ahead
of Seattle, so the first game wasn’t a fluke. The Falcons’
defense has allowed a league-high 19 touchdown passes and multiple
touchdown passes in 5-of-7 games.
Carr is not just playing mistake-free football (13 TD passes,
2 INTs), he’s been consistently good all season. He’s thrown two-or-more
touchdown passes in five consecutive games and at least 261 yards
in each of those contests. Carr has plenty of targets to spread
the ball around - Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs III, Nelson Agholor
and Hunter Renfrow. He’s even gotten Josh Jacobs involved in the
pass offense averaging three catches a game. He’ll face a Browns’
pass defense that ranks 29th in QB fantasy points allowed, having
allowed Dak Prescott 502 yards and rookie Joe Burrow to throw
for 406 yards last Sunday.
I’ve been recommending Stafford for the past two weeks
and while he did manage 340 yards against the weak Falcons, he
still managed just 21.8 fantasy points because he only threw one
touchdown pass. That’s two straight weeks with just one
visit to the end zone and he doesn’t figure to get healthy
facing a Colts defense that ranks second. The Indy pass defense
has allowed just four touchdown passes in the last five games
and one passer to throw for 300 yards all season. It’s time
to lower expectations on Stafford and look elsewhere for a quarterback.
Even while getting blown out last weekend by the 49ers, the Patriots
defense didn’t allow much to Garoppolo (14.3 pts). Despite facing
both Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes earlier this season, the
Patriots defense has not given up a 300-yard passing game. After
an MVP start to his season, Allen has stumbled averaging just
20.9 FPts/G over his last three starts. A cold passer versus a
hot defense should always be avoided.
I think Tagovailoa has a chance to be a very good quarterback,
but this isn’t a great spot to make his debut start. And
it probably wouldn’t have been if the Miami bye hadn’t
been changed from Week 11 to Week 7. Instead of facing the Rams,
he would have gotten the New York Jets for his debut. The Rams
have yielded just eight touchdown passes in seven games and zero
touchdown passes in five games. Watch Tua this weekend and if
he looks like he belongs start him in Week 9.