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The Shot Caller's Report - Wk 12 Running Backs



By Steve Schwarz | 11/26/20
Bye Weeks: N/A
QBs | RBs | WRs



Grab a Helmet

1) Duke Johnson at Detroit

Johnson has disappointed fantasy owners who handcuffed him with David Johnson as he’s managed just 11.9 fantasy points combined over two games. However, he faces the Detroit Lions this Thursday, who are the NFL’s worst at defending opposing running backs, yielding 33.8 FPts/G and 37.9 points since Week 7, including 12 touchdowns (nine rushing, three receiving). There are no other running back options. Duke finally shows up.

2) D’Andre Swift vs. Houston

Assuming Swift gets the go ahead to return from his concussion, he’s set up to have a good Thanksgiving against a very generous Texans’ run defense. Only the Lions’ run defense is worse as Houston allows 30.9 FPts/G to opposing running backs. Swift was just starting to display the talents that made him a second-round pick out of Georgia producing 149 yards from scrimmage and a score in Week 10 (25.7 fantasy points). If he plays, he’ll pick up right where he left off.

11/26 Editor's note: Swift is not expected to play according to Adam Schefter.

3) Miles Sanders vs. Seattle

As noted when I said to sit Wentz, the Eagles game strategy is almost certainly to get Sanders and the running game going to avoid putting the slumping Wentz in harm’s way and keep Wilson, Metcalf and Lockett seated on the sidelines. The Seahawks not only give up production through the air, but on the ground as well. They rank 23rd for the season (25.6 FPts/G) and a 28-point average over the past five games. The question as to whether this will be a good or great day for Sanders will come down to Pederson sticking with the run game (something he has trouble doing).

Grab some Pine

1) Melvin Gordon vs. New Orleans

The Saints rank No.1 against opposing running backs (17.4 FPts/G) and they have been downright stingy over the past five games (11.7) with zero touchdowns on the ground. Only one back (Aaron Jones), has even cracked the 16-point mark all season. Despite his 20.4 fantasy points last week against Miami, I’m fading the touchdown-dependent Gordon this Sunday.

2) Gus Edwards at Pittsburgh

You would think with both Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins sidelined than Edwards would be in for a great day. Yes, his touches will go up, but the Steelers simply don’t allow running backs to produce big numbers. They are second to the Saints (by 0.1 points) against running backs. The Eagles’ Sanders is the only back to crack the 20-point mark against them all season. Defenses are playing the run first and daring the Ravens to pass and it shows in the fact their yards per attempt is down from 5.5 ypc in 2019 to 4.9 in 2020. Lamar Jackson has the ability to poach running back red zone touchdowns. Stay away from Edwards unless you absolutely must start him.

3) Clyde Edwards-Helaire at Tampa Bay

Edwards-Helaire produced solid numbers last week, but his usage rate has dropped significantly since the arrival of Le’Veon Bell. CEH averaged 21.3 touches pre-Bell and is averaging 10.3 touches post-Bell. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been throwing the ball more of late with Patrick Mahomes averaging 43 passing attempts over the last three games (versus 34.6 attempts the first seven games). Which makes CEH extremely touchdown-dependent and the Bucs have allowed just seven rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores to RBs in 11 games.

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers