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Steve Schwarz | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Sophomore Jinx - Real or Myth?
6/15/17

 

Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott finished 9th among fantasy QBs last season. Can he avoid the sophomore slump? Historical data says yes.

We have all heard the term “sophomore jinx,” but is it real and will it infect the highly valued 2016 rookies in their second season?

Last season saw five rookie performances which helped many a fantasy owner in their title hunt. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard and Michael Thomas all finished as top-10 fantasy players at their position and Tyreek Hill came in at No. 15.

Prescott and Elliott led a dynamic Dallas Cowboys offense which scored 421 points on 6,027 totals yards, ranking fifth in the league in both categories. Howard didn’t get double-digit rushing attempts until game No. 4, yet still finished second in rushing yards and ninth among running backs with 203.1 fantasy points (using FFToday default scoring) while Thomas finished eighth in FPts/G at his position (11.2) and ninth in total wideout points. After a slow start (81 total yards through Week 6), Hill posted 119.9 FPts over the final 11 games (10.9 FPTs/G).

However, 2017 is a new season. Rosters change and coaches adjust. Should we expect the five second-year budding stars to continue to produce at the same level, improve, or take a step backward?

I evaluated rookies from 2010 through 2015 to see if I could spot a trend. I used only players who cracked the top-20 at their position or running backs and receivers who put up a 1,000-yard season. The results below come from the 13 running backs, eight quarterbacks and seven running backs who “qualified.”

 Quarterbacks
Year Player Ru Yds Rec Yds Pa Yds Tot TDs FPTs   Year Ru Yds Rec Yds Pa Yds Tot TDs FPts
2015 Jameis Winston 210 0 4044 28 347.2 2016 168 0 4090 29 339.3
2014 Derek Carr 87 0 3270 21 256.2 2015 138 0 3987 32 341.2
2013 Geno Smith 366 0 3046 21 272.9 2014 238 0 2525 14 208.1
2012 Russell Wilson 489 0 3118 30 332.8 2013 539 0 3357 27 331.8
2012 Andrew Luck 255 0 4374 28 366.2 2013 377 0 3830 27 345.2
2012 Robert Griffin III 815 0 3200 27 363.5 2014 484 0 3212 16 273.0
2011 Andy Dalton 152 0 3398 21 271.1 2012 120 0 3669 31 327.5
2010 Sam Bradford 63 0 3512 19 259.9 2011 26 0 2164 6 134.8
2469.8 93.16% 2300.9

 Running Backs
Year Player Ru Yds Rec Yds Pa Yds Tot TDs FPTs   Year Ru Yds Rec Yds Pa Yds Tot TDs FPts
2015 Todd Gurley 1108 188 0 10 189.6 2016 885 327 0 6 157.2
2015 David Johnson 581 457 0 13 175.8 2016 1239 879 0 20 331.8
2014 Jeremy Hill 1124 215 0 9 187.9 2015 794 79 0 12 159.3
2014 Andre Williams 720 13 0 7 127.0 2015 257 7 0 1 32.4
2013 Eddie Lacy 1178 257 0 11 209.5 2014 1139 427 0 13 234.6
2013 Le'Veon Bell 860 408 0 8 174.8 2014 1361 854 0 11 287.5
2013 Giovani Bernard 695 514 0 8 168.9 2014 680 349 0 7 144.9
2013 Zac Stacy 973 141 0 8 159.4 2014 293 152 0 1 50.5
2012 Alfred Morris 1613 77 0 13 247.0 2013 1275 78 0 7 177.3
2012 Trent Richardson 950 367 0 12 203.7 2013 563 316 0 4 111.9
2012 Doug Martin 1454 472 0 12 264.6 2013 456 66 0 1 58.2
2012 Mikel Leshoure 798 214 0 9 155.2 2013 9 0 0 0 0.9
2010 LeGarrette Blount 1007 14 0 6 138.1 2011 781 148 0 5 122.9
2401.5 77.84% 1869.4

 Wide Receivers
Year Player Ru Yds Rec Yds Pa Yds Tot TDs FPTs   Year Ru Yds Rec Yds Pa Yds Tot TDs FPts
2014 Odell Beckham Jr. 35 1305 0 12 206.0 2015 3 1450 0 13 223.3
2014 Mike Evans 0 1051 0 12 177.1 2015 0 1208 0 3 138.8
2014 Kelvin Benjamin 0 1008 0 9 154.8 2016 0 941 0 7 136.1
2013 Keenan Allen 0 1046 0 8 152.6 2014 0 783 0 4 102.3
2011 A.J. Green 53 1057 0 7 153.0 2012 38 1350 0 11 204.8
2011 Julio Jones 56 959 0 8 149.5 2012 30 1198 0 10 182.8
2010 Mike Williams 0 955 0 11 161.5 2011 3 771 0 3 95.4
  1154.5 93.85% 1083.5

What these numbers seem to indicate is that it’s a better bet for a quarterback or wide receiver to produce similar numbers to his rookie season than a running back.

Four of the 13 running backs (30.7%) saw a monumental drop in production. The Giants’ Williams, Rams’ Stacy, Bucs’ Martin and Leshoure of the Lions likely inflicted major damage to their fantasy owners with an average 80% decrease. In three of the four cases, the problems were injury-related so if we eliminate the three injured backs the decline is a more manageable 3.42%. But injuries are a factor at the running back position which must be taken into account.

So while the numbers indicate a small reduction in production for sophomores, it’s doesn’t appear to be a big problem.

The more likely reason for the theory of the “Sophomore Jinx” is that, as fans, we expect our players to improve each season and that’s just not always a realistic approach. Injuries, roster changes and defensive coordinators’ adjustments force changes to an offense.

For our five 2016 rookies, here is what they did last season and what FFToday is projecting for 2017:

 2017 Projections for 2016 Rookies
Year Player Ru Yds Rec Yds Pa Yds Tot TDs FPTs   Year Ru Yds Rec Yds Pa Yds Tot TDs FPts
2016 Dak Prescott 282 0 3667 29 339.6 2017 315 0 3629 24 315.0
2016 Ezekiel Elliott 1631 363 0 16 295.4 2017 1482 334 0 13 259.6
2016 Jordan Howard 1313 298 0 7 203.1 2017 1275 326 0 10 220.1
2016 Michael Thomas 0 1137 0 9 167.7 2017 0 1265 0 8 174.5
2016 Tyreek Hill 267 593 0 9 140.0 2017 220 715 0 7 135.5

Dak Prescott The Cowboys offensive line ranked No. 2 in 2016 by PFF, but lost RT Doug Free to retirement and LG Ron Leary to free agency (Denver). La’el Collins will fill in one of the spots, but the unit will obviously take a hit and the schedule is slightly tougher versus opposing quarterbacks.

Ezekiel Elliott Elliott has to deal with the same issues as Prescott and a schedule that is also harder against the run.

Jordan Howard When you are your team’s best weapon (read only weapon), touches should rise significantly. The Bears used to the team of Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery … now its Howard and a bunch of question marks.

Michael Thomas There’s good news and bad news. The good news is No. 1 wideout and deep threat Brandin Cooks is gone making Thomas the new No. 1 guy for Drew Brees. The bad news is that Cooks is gone making Thomas the focus of more double teams, safeties over the top and zones rolling to his side of the field. However, Brees always finds a way to get his receivers the football.

Tyreek Hill Like Thomas, Hill officially became the man when Kansas City let Jeremy Maclin go. Hill was already the de facto No. 1 receiver with Maclin too frequently hurt. Hill will likely do less punt and kickoff returns for league which include return yardage, but Andy Reid is very good at balancing when to bring out the “big gun” on special teams (remember his expert use of Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson in Philadelphia).


Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.