Good news fantasy owners. Bill Belichick
and the Patriot running backs have a favorable fantasy schedule.
Good luck!
It’s always nice when things work out. Your star player against
a weak defense when you need it the most. Sorry, that’s not
happening here for most running backs in 2017.
The easiest running back schedule belongs to … the New England
Patriots! (Pounding my head on the table) The one team where there
is no clear-cut starter, or backup, or even third-down specialist.
And even if there were a confirmed pecking order, it’s a Bill
Belichick team, the fantasy owner’s worst nightmare when it
comes to running back usage. He’s the one coach who confuses
and confounds fantasy owners every week of the season (and apparently,
opposing coaches too). No wonder he owns so many rings.
Only a crazy man drafts a Belichick running back, despite last season’s
impressive LeGarrette Blount success. This year you would have to
get in Bill’s head to figure out who, among; Mike Gillislee,
James White, Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead and Brandon Bolden, will lead
the team. Or even if he will use the running game in any given week.
(OK, I must admit there were four “crazy men” in the
league I drafted in last night.)
Best full season
New England – The Patriots have the
easiest overall schedule (opposing defenses rank 21st in RB fantasy
points allowed) and if you force me to choose one running back from
this team I’ll have to go with White (ADP 117.6). Here’s why. Gillislee
might get the majority of the rushing yards, but I’m scared that
Burkhead could be the goal-line option. White, off his Super Bowl
starring role, should be the receiving option and we know how much
Tom
Brady and Belichick love to throw to the back out of the backfield.
Seventy catches, 900 yards combined rushing and receiving, with
seven touchdowns is likely to lead this backfield in fantasy points.
New York Jets – The Jets have no chance
to reach the playoffs this season, so this should be the reason
the 31-year-old Matt
Forte loses playing time to Bilal
Powell. Powell is no spring chicken either, but unlike Forte,
he could still be on the roster when the Jets get competitive again.
Powell can both run the ball (5.5 ypc last season) and catch it
(58 receptions) and averaged 138 combined yards over the final four
games of 2016. If anyone is going to take advantage of the easy
schedule (20.3) it will be Powell, so push him up your draftboard
one round.
Carolina – I hope you haven’t forgotten
about Jonathan
Stewart (ADP 111.6) with all the Christian
McCaffrey hype (ADP 28.6) during training camp. McCaffrey might
be more important to the Panthers in real life, stretching the defense,
but his fantasy numbers may not show it. Stewart, at 240 lbs., is
still more likely to get the short touchdown chances that Cam
Newton doesn’t “poach” and may lead the team in rushing attempts,
while McCaffrey gets all the receiving work and a major portion
of the near even split in workload. Barring injury, neither back
figures to be able to take advantage of the third-easiest schedule
(19.1), but the cost to own Stewart is much less prohibitive if
you are ready to gamble on one half of the duo.
Tennessee – The Titans (18.2) have
the best schedule of any top team with one primary workhorse – DeMarco
Murray. Despite calls for more work going to Derrick
Henry, a healthy Murray and the favorable schedule could make
for fantasy success once again. Murray rebounded nicely from the
ugliness in Philadelphia to post 1,287 yards on the ground, catch
53 balls and score 12 times in 2016. He’s running behind one of
the league’s best offensive lines and rightfully should come off
the board around the end of the first round.
Worst full season
San Francisco – Oh, the humanity!
Half of their 16 games will be against top-10 run defenses. Carlos
Hyde still has hold of the lead back role, but it’s not a tight
grip. Backup Tim
Hightower has previously played in a Kyle Shanahan offense and
rookie third-stringer Joe
Williams has looked good in camp and the first preseason game.
The 49ers’ offensive line ranked 28th last season, according to
PFF and isn’t likely to improve much this year. Stay away!
LA Rams –Todd
Gurley was a disappointment last season off a very good 2015,
but fantasy owners should know what to expect in 2017. Still, he’ll
go too high due to name recognition. The Rams continue to have quarterback
questions and unless Jared
Goff-to-Sammy
Watkins suddenly becomes potent there will be seven or eight
men in the box staring directly at Gurley on every play. Gurley
failed to crack 85 yards rushing in any game last season and going
back to his rookie season has only earned a 100-yard rushing bonus
once in the past 24 games. “To paraphrase Albert Einstein, the definition
of insanity is picking Gurley too high again and expecting different
results.”
Pittsburgh – OK, this is a tough one
because I have a “man crush” on Le’Veon
Bell after his work last season helped me win a title. He’s
a great back, but he’s got the third-toughest overall schedule which
gets more difficult later in the season. I’d still draft him in
the first round, because he’s such a good pass receiver, I just
wouldn’t put him ahead of David
Johnson (or Ezekiel
Elliott if I knew he could win his appeal or at least delay
it in court until next season a.k.a. “The Brady defense”).
Best playoff
Atlanta – The Ravens own the best
playoff schedule (28.0), but no running back to take advantage,
other than plodder Terrance West, so Devonta
Freeman should be sitting pretty come playoff time. New Orleans
twice and Tampa Bay make up a mouthwatering trio for Freeman and
the Falcons (27.3).
Houston –Lamar
Miller might struggle during the fantasy regular season, but
from Week 14-16 he’s got three favorable matchups; San Francisco,
Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. By then, Deshaun
Watson should be the starting quarterback and stretching defense
from sideline to sideline to help the running game.
Worst playoff
New York Giants – The Giants don’t
figure to run Paul
Perkins (or anyone else) that much anyway, with all the talent
they have amassed at wide receiver, but looking at the playoff schedule
will convince them to throw, throw and throw some more. Dallas (No.
4 against the run), Philadelphia (No. 12) and Arizona (No. 1) are
on the schedule during the fantasy playoffs.
Minnesota – Hey, I’m excited about
Dalvin
Cook too, but by Week 16 he’ll probably have hit the “rookie
wall” along with running into a horde of defensive linemen and linebackers.
Cook didn’t have to work hard to earn the starting role, but the
Vikings’ offensive line ranked 29th last season and while they made
some improvements, it’s certainly not the Dallas Cowboys OL in front
of him.
Note: The "3-gm" column represents Weeks 14-16
2017 Running Backs
vs. Opponents Fantasy Points Allowed
Team
Wk 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
3-gm
15-gm
New England
19
30
14
6
22
18
23
25
bye
20
24
15
29
15
26
29
23.3
21.0
NY Jets
29
24
15
13
31
3
15
23
29
22
bye
6
19
20
30
25
25.0
20.3
Carolina
32
29
30
3
11
12
21
22
23
15
bye
18
30
10
8
22
13.3
19.1
Cincinnati
7
14
8
31
29
bye
26
27
13
2
20
31
26
21
10
11
14.0
18.4
Baltimore
16
31
13
26
24
21
10
15
2
bye
8
14
11
26
31
27
28.0
18.3
Denver
25
4
29
24
bye
5
25
19
12
3
16
24
15
18
27
28
24.3
18.3
Tennessee
24
13
9
14
15
27
31
bye
7
16
26
27
14
1
32
17
16.7
18.2
Kansas City
3
12
25
28
14
26
24
20
4
bye
5
29
18
24
25
15
21.3
18.1
Buffalo
18
6
20
23
16
bye
22
24
18
30
25
19
3
27
15
3
15.0
17.9
Jacksonville
14
2
7
18
26
17
27
bye
16
25
31
1
27
9
14
32
18.3
17.7
Minnesota
30
26
22
11
21
8
7
31
bye
28
17
11
23
6
16
8
10.0
17.7
LA Chargers
20
15
19
12
5
24
20
3
bye
13
29
4
31
28
19
18
21.7
17.3
Dallas
5
20
1
17
8
bye
32
28
19
23
12
25
28
5
24
9
12.7
17.1
Chicago
23
22
26
8
10
7
6
30
bye
8
11
12
32
16
11
31
19.3
16.9
Miami
22
25
18
30
2
23
18
7
24
6
bye
3
20
3
29
19
17.0
16.6
Green Bay
9
23
16
21
4
10
30
bye
11
21
7
26
22
31
6
10
15.7
16.5
Arizona
11
27
4
32
12
22
17
bye
32
9
14
13
17
2
28
5
11.7
16.3
Philadelphia
28
19
5
25
1
6
28
32
20
bye
4
21
9
17
5
24
15.3
16.3
New Orleans
10
3
6
15
bye
11
8
21
22
29
28
17
6
23
21
23
22.3
16.2
NY Giants
4
11
12
22
25
20
9
bye
17
32
19
28
24
4
12
1
5.7
16.0
Atlanta
21
8
11
29
bye
15
3
18
6
4
9
22
10
30
22
30
27.3
15.9
Detroit
1
5
23
10
6
30
bye
26
8
31
21
10
7
22
21
16
19.7
15.8
Tampa Bay
15
21
10
5
3
1
29
6
30
18
bye
23
8
11
23
30
21.3
15.5
Indianapolis
17
1
31
9
32
2
13
16
14
26
bye
2
13
29
20
7
18.7
15.5
Oakland
2
18
28
20
7
25
19
29
15
bye
3
20
5
19
4
12
11.7
15.1
Washington
12
17
24
19
bye
32
12
4
9
10
30
5
4
25
1
20
15.3
14.9
Houston
13
16
3
2
19
31
bye
9
27
22
1
7
2
32
13
26
23.7
14.9
Cleveland
26
7
27
16
18
14
2
10
bye
11
13
16
25
8
7
21
12.0
14.7
Seattle
8
32
2
27
17
bye
5
14
28
1
8
32
12
13
17
4
11.3
14.7
Pittsburgh
31
10
21
7
13
19
25
11
bye
27
2
8
16
7
3
14
8.0
14.3
LA Rams
27
28
32
4
9
13
1
bye
5
14
10
30
1
12
9
2
7.7
13.1
San Francisco
6
9
17
1
27
28
4
12
1
5
bye
9
21
14
2
13
9.7
11.3
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.
